Our best bet for Sunday's NRL Qualifying Final between the Penrith Panthers and Sydney Roosters is the Panthers to Win / Under 48.5 / Tupou to Score Same Game Multi at $6.50, with Penrith securing the Minor Premiership and Daniel Tupou scoring five tries in his last four matches.
The opening weekend of NRL finals concludes with a blockbuster between the Panthers and Roosters at CommBank Stadium in Sydney on Sunday evening.
Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters
These two sides enter this clash in polar-opposite form, Penrith having won three straight and Sydney having lost three.
However, when they played a month ago in a dress rehearsal of this match, it was the Roosters who prevailed 12-6.
Leg 1 - Panthers to Win
Don't expect a repeat of last month's result when these teams meet on Sunday.
The Panthers have gone through a bit of a rut the past two months, however they've still secured the Minor Premiership and are in the box seat for the business end of the season.
This is where they play their best footy, and up against a side that looks to be wilting, expect them to stroll to victory.
Leg 2 - Under 48.5 Points Total
Penrith should control this game, but it's unlikely to be high-scoring. That's just not how the Panthers do finals.
Their most recent meeting produced just 18 points. With the Penrith defence turning the screws and Sydney not exactly playing expansive rugby league right now, expect a similarly low scoreline.
Leg 3 - Daniel Tupou to Score
Tupou is one of the few Roosters to back up this week, after they heavily rotated their side for the final match of the season.
The big Sydney winger is in excellent form, with 13 tries from 14 matches this season, including five in his last four.
Last week he was sharp, crossing over for the Roosters' opening try. Expect him to be a key part of their attack on Sunday again.
Same Game Multi
Panthers to Win / Under 48.5 / Tupou to Score = $6.50
Value Bet
There's good value in backing a 1-12 Panthers win here. They're priced to win this 13+, but there's little reason to believe this one will be a blowout.
Yes, the Roosters have fallen off the pace in recent weeks, but a resurgence is expected from them now that we're into finals footy.
They've shown as recently as last month that they can match Penrith in their tight, gritty style of play, which is exactly what we should see again in this clash.
