Our best bet for Friday's NRL Elimination Final between South Sydney and Newcastle is the Rabbitohs to Win / Over 47.5 / Fifita to Score Same Game Multi at $5.25, with the Rabbitohs winning four of their last five and nine of their last ten games exceeding 47.5 points.
The Rabbitohs and Knights clash in the first of four NRL finals this weekend, with both teams putting their seasons on the line in this Elimination Final at Allianz Stadium on Friday.
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights
Sixth plays seventh on Friday night, but it's the Rabbitohs who bring the better form into this knockout match.
South Sydney have won their last two, against the Roosters and Titans, and four of their last five.
The Knights, on the other hand, have limped their way into playoff footy, losing back-to-back matches to the Warriors and Sea Eagles.
Leg 1 - Rabbitohs to Win
These are two sides headed in different directions, and this kind of momentum matters when it comes to finals.
The Rabbitohs have been firing on all cylinders, scoring 92 points across the past fortnight. Things couldn't be more opposite for the Knights, who have leaked 90 in their last two.
South Sydney should get over the line here, as they did when these sides met in July.
Leg 2 - Over 47.5 Points Total
The Rabbitohs are notorious for high-scoring affairs, with nine of their last ten games exceeding the 47.5-point mark.
Newcastle are the one team that can rival them on this front. They haven't had a match with less than 50 points since August 1.
The pressure of the moment may well see things tighten up a little for both teams, but their track records are loose enough that we should still see plenty of points.
Leg 3 - David Fifita to Score
Fifita has rounded into form at the right time this season, scoring three times in four matches, including his last two.
The Rabbitohs' second-rower gets great ball off both Cody Walker and Latrell Mitchell up the middle of the field.
Against a porous defence like Newcastle's, and with plenty of experience behind him, expect Fifita to cross over again.
Same Game Multi
Rabbitohs to Win / Over 47.5 / Fifita to Score = $5.25
Value Bet
South Sydney are priced to win this one 13+, but the pressure of the moment should restrict their winning margin to 1-12.
A tight start to the match is to be expected, while Newcastle will throw the kitchen sink at the Rabbitohs late in the game once they find themselves behind.
