Our best bet for Saturday's AFL Semi-Final between Brisbane and Adelaide is the Over 180.5 Points / Rankine 25+ Disposals / Milera 20+ Disposals / Cameron 2+ Goals Same Game Multi at $5.00, with eight of the Lions' 11 home games going over the total points this season and Izak Rankine averaging 30.8 disposals over his last nine games.
Brisbane didn't help their three-peat chances with a poor performance against the Swans. Will they respond on Saturday night back at home at the Gabba against the Crows?
Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows
The Lions have generally responded in a big way off the back of their poor performances this season, but they were horrific last week against the Swans.
Earlier in the season the Lions lost to the Demons letting a big lead slip, and the following week they beat the Crows by 52 points.
The Crows had their own scare last week when the Bulldogs took the lead in the last quarter, but put it together late. Can they cause an upset here and secure a Preliminary Final against the Hawks?
Leg 1 - Over 180.5 Points
I know it's a final, but this is a surprisingly low line for a Brisbane game, in particular at the Gabba.
Eight of the Lions' 11 games at their home ground this season have gone over the total points, with an average total points of 191.5.
Between the two teams, seven of the last eight matches have gone over the total points including their one match-up this year, which hit 202 total points.
Assuming Brisbane respond, they'll kick a score, and if they don't, we'll see the Crows kick a score.
Leg 2 - Izak Rankine 25+ Disposals
There's no slowing down Izak Rankine. Once again he was incredible last week in Adelaide's Elimination Final win over the Dogs, finishing with 34 disposals.
Over Rankine's last nine games, he's averaging 30.8 disposals, hitting 25+ disposals in eight of those nine games.
Josh Dunkley might try to put time into Rankine, similar to what he did with Gulden last week, but he's much better suited to Jordan Dawson so I'm leaning towards that being the matchup, which means Rankine runs free again.
Leg 3 - Wayne Milera 20+ Disposals
A big year for Wayne Milera. He's hit 20+ disposals in 15 of his 19 games this season, averaging 25.4 disposals per game, including hitting 20+ in eight of his last nine.
Milera came up big last week in the Crows' Elimination Final with 27 disposals, and will once again have the designated kicker duties from back-half for Adelaide.
In their Round 7 matchup, Milera had 22 disposals, and has hit 20+ in four of his last five games against the Lions, despite only really breaking out in this role this season.
Leg 4 - Charlie Cameron 2+ Goals
Charlie Cameron has kicked 2+ goals in 20 of his 24 games this season, including ten of 11 at the Gabba, and prior to last week's duck-egg he had kicked 2+ in his last nine games entering the finals.
The former Crow has had success against his old team, kicking 28 goals from ten games against Adelaide since joining the Lions, including four in their Round 7 meeting this year.
His finals record stacks up since joining Brisbane, kicking 42 goals from 21 games and crossing for 2+ in 13 of those games. I was surprised by how poor Cameron was last week, but he wasn't alone.
Same Game Multi
Over 180.5 Points / Rankine 25+ Disposals / Milera 20+ Disposals / Cameron 2+ Goals = $5.00
