Less than a week remains in the regular season, with some huge matchups on the slate. The Hawks head to Cleveland in what could be a first-round playoff preview, while Minnesota faces Orlando.
Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
This is a fascinating matchup. The Hawks and Cavs meet here, then again in Atlanta two days later, and there’s every chance this turns into a first-round playoff series.
The Cavs may be content finishing fourth, potentially setting up a second-round clash with Detroit rather than Boston. As for Atlanta, it’s tight between the five and nine seeds, so they’ll be desperate to keep winning and avoid the play-in.
LEG 1 - Jalen Johnson Over 39.5 PRA
Johnson may have taken a slight step back offensively behind Alexander-Walker, but his all-round production remains elite.
He is averaging a PRA of 40.4 across his last 14 games, despite only clearing this line once in his last four.
The matchup is strong. Cleveland concede points to power forwards 13% above average over the last month, along with a slight bump in assists. In two games against the Cavs this season, Johnson has averaged 26 points, 12.5 rebounds and 8.5 assists.
LEG 2 - Dyson Daniels 6+ Rebounds
Daniels has been posting strong rebounding numbers while playing more as a small forward alongside Alexander-Walker and McCollum.
Since the All-Star break, he is averaging 7.7 rebounds per game and has recorded 6+ rebounds in 16 of 21 games.
He pulled down eight rebounds the last time he faced Cleveland.
LEG 3 - Jarrett Allen 6+ Rebounds
This is a low line for Allen given his recent output.
He is averaging 10 rebounds per game across the six games he’s played alongside Harden, Mitchell and Mobley, recording double-digit rebounds in five of those.
Across his last 17 games, Allen is averaging 10.1 rebounds and has hit 6+ in 15 of them.
Same Game Multi
Johnson Over 39.5 PRA / Daniels 6+ Rebounds / Allen 6+ Rebounds = $3.25
VALUE BET - Dyson Daniels 10+ Rebounds @ $4.30
Daniels has quietly produced some big rebounding games of late.
In Atlanta’s preferred starting five, which ranks among the best net rating lineups in the NBA (min. 100 minutes), Daniels is averaging 8.2 rebounds across their last 16 games together.
He has recorded 10+ rebounds in six of those games, including two of his last three.
He had eight rebounds the last time he faced Cleveland, but in this current system he should have more opportunities on the glass.
