Can the Timberwolves respond in Game 6, or will the Spurs prove too strong on the road and book their place in the Western Conference Finals against OKC?
San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves
The Spurs made a huge statement in Game 5 with a dominant performance against Minnesota.
Now the series heads back to Minnesota, but the task facing the Timberwolves looks increasingly difficult. San Antonio completely controlled the tempo last game, while Minnesota’s rotation continues to thin out deeper into the series.
Leg 1 - Spurs
With Oklahoma City already waiting in the Western Conference Finals, the Spurs cannot afford to let this series drift to a Game 7.
Game 5 showed San Antonio are currently the superior side. Minnesota simply don’t have the same depth anymore following Donte DiVincenzo’s season-ending injury.
The Spurs have done an excellent job containing Julius Randle using smaller defenders, while aggressively trapping Anthony Edwards every chance they get.
Game 1 came with some shooting variance, while Game 4 was heavily impacted by Victor Wembanyama’s ejection. Neither scenario feels likely to repeat here.
San Antonio should finish the series on the road.
Leg 2 - Naz Reid Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds
Naz Reid shapes as Minnesota’s best chance of extending this series.
He brings physicality defensively while also stretching the floor offensively, and should continue eating into both Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle’s minutes.
Reid is averaging 21.4 combined points and rebounds this series, but importantly he has cleared this line in both home games.
Across those two games in Minnesota, Reid has averaged 16.5 points and nine rebounds.
Expect his minutes to push into the low 30s again in what should be a more competitive contest than Game 5.
Leg 3 - Ayo Dosunmu 10+ Points
The Spurs appear to have found a blueprint defensively by trapping Anthony Edwards aggressively and forcing other Timberwolves players to beat them.
That should once again open scoring opportunities for Ayo Dosunmu.
Dosunmu is averaging 16.2 points per game this postseason and has scored 10+ points in seven of his nine playoff games.
One miss came when he exited early through injury, while the other came in just 22 minutes.
Minnesota’s shortened rotation means Dosunmu should play 30+ minutes again, and when he gets that level of court time he generally clears this line comfortably.
Same Game Multi
Spurs / Reid Over 19.5 PR / Dosunmu 10+ Points = $3.75
Value Bet
Dylan Harper continues to show exactly why he was selected second overall in last year’s NBA Draft.
His scoring gets plenty of attention, but his rebounding ability for a guard his size has been just as impressive.
Harper is averaging 6.4 rebounds per game this series, including 10 boards in Game 5 despite playing only 25 minutes.
His per-36 rebound numbers in the series sit at 9.3 rebounds per game.
Harper has recorded 6+ rebounds in three of the five games this series, and in San Antonio’s three wins he is averaging seven rebounds per contest.
Expect his minutes to once again sit in the high 20s, giving him another strong chance to impact the glass.
