As of Round 20 2026, Nick Daicos leads the Brownlow Medal race with 36.20 projected votes, priced at $1.20 to win. Patrick Cripps sits second on 29.35 votes at $34, while Marcus Bontempelli is third on 28.17 votes at $10. Our best bet is Daicos at $1.20, backed by a season-long best bet record that has followed him from $4.00 in Round 1.
The Brownlow appears to be run and won after another dominant Nick Daicos performance, but there are still a number of long shots on our leaderboard in top-five calculations including a new entrant paying $126.
Brownlow Leaderboard - Round 20
| Rank | Name | Team | Votes | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Daicos | Coll | 36.20 | $1.20 |
| 2 | Patrick Cripps | Car | 29.35 | $34 |
| 3 | Marcus Bontempelli | WB | 28.17 | $10 |
| 4 | Jai Newcombe | Haw | 22.12 | $51 |
| 5 | Bailey Smith | Gee | 20.84 | $21 |
| 6 | Harry Sheezel | NM | 20.40 | $81 |
| 7 | Will Ashcroft | BL | 19.66 | $126 |
| 8 | Zak Butters | PA | 19.59 | N/A |
Best Bet
Nick Daicos
What can I say? Nick Daicos is super-short but he just doesn't lose from here, with West Coast in his run home in Round 22.
Last week we thought that maybe the Crows would be too good for Collingwood, but Daicos had other ideas with an absolute masterclass which will result in another three votes.
If you followed us all year and put $1 on every best bet after each round across the season, you'd be well placed with the following riding on Daicos:
| Round | Odds |
|---|---|
| Round 1 | $4.00 |
| Round 2 | $3.50 |
| Round 3 | $3.00 |
| Round 4 | $4.00 |
| Round 6 | $3.00 |
| Round 10 | $5.00 |
| Round 11 | $4.00 |
| Round 13 | $4.00 |
| Round 14 | $4.50 |
| Round 17 | $1.75 |
So the $1.20 this round is short, but hopefully the groundwork is in place during the year.
Back Nick Daicos @ $1.20 with betr
Lay
Jordan Dawson
Jordan Dawson is fourth favourite but nowhere to be seen on our leaderboard.
He copped the Ed Allan tag in the second half of Adelaide's Round 20 loss to Collingwood, and won't poll in a losing team.
Dawson has fallen outside our top-ten now, and although the $26 is probably an accurate price, I would advise against placing the Crow in any exotics when the markets open.
Back Jordan Dawson @ $26 with betr
Value Bet
Will Ashcroft
He is flying home, and will be a genuine top-five chance at season's end.
The top three on our leaderboard is pretty much locked in with Cripps and Bontempelli fighting it out for second spot behind Daicos, but Will Ashcroft could move into fourth place after Round 21 with the Lions facing the Blues.
After Carlton, the Lions will take on Hawthorn, Gold Coast and Collingwood, with the Pies the only team with a defensive midfielder in Ed Allan. Assuming Brisbane wins three of their next four, it's Will Ashcroft that will likely feature in the votes. He's had 30+ disposals in his last six games and is Brisbane's form player.
Back Will Ashcroft @ $126 with betr
The Voting System - Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach
We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player's impact on the game.
This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.
