Our best bet for Saturday's AFL Qualifying Final between Sydney and Brisbane is the Lions -13.5 / Serong 15+ Disposals / Rayner 1+ Goals / Rowbottom 8+ Tackles Same Game Multi at $5.00, with the Lions winning six of their last eight against the Swans and James Rowbottom laying 12 tackles last round with increased centre bounce time.
The Lions are in the box seat to secure a home Preliminary Final, when they face an undermanned Swans outfit in the second Qualifying Final.
Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions
The Lions are red-hot favourites heading to the SCG due to the well-publicised absences of key Swans players, but they still have to head into Sydney's home ground against a bit of an unknown commodity.
The weather looks absolutely perfect. Expect a high scoring affair on a fast deck at the SCG.
Leg 1 - Brisbane -13.5
The unexpectedness of the Swans could trouble the Lions early in this, but ultimately they should be winning this game somewhat comfortably.
The Lions have won six of their last eight against Sydney including Round 16 by 43 points, a game where Warner kicked four goals and Heeney had 30 disposals.
The Swans may be able to keep this close up until half-time, but watch Brisbane's match winners be too good in the end.
Leg 2 - Jai Serong 15+ Disposals
Has been thrown into centre bounce over the last month, but in Round 24 that number moved to 61%, the third highest Swan behind Grundy and Rowbottom.
As a result, Serong finished with 24 disposals and six clearances, hitting 15+ disposals in his last three games where his midfield minutes have spiked.
He could be utilised to slow down Will Ashcroft in a defensive role, but we'll see him around the ball.
Leg 3 - James Rowbottom 8+ Tackles
Rowbottom is ranked top-five in the AFL for tackles per game, the catch being he's primarily played as a half-forward most of the year.
Last round Rowbottom's centre bounce attendances jumped to 87% without Heeney and Warner, resulting in him laying 12 tackles, and against the Giants he attended 45% of centre bounces and had 11 tackles.
He recorded six tackles against the Lions last time they met with only 9% of centre bounces, while in the 2024 finals series Rowbottom had 11 tackles in three of those finals matches.
Leg 4 - Cam Rayner 1+ Goals
We have seen Cam Rayner play some huge finals matches over his career, but we're also not entirely sure what Rayner we will get. That being said, the Lions should be in a strong enough position late where we'll see him hit the scoreboard.
Rayner has kicked a goal in 18 of his 23 games this season, and the conditions in Sydney on Saturday should work in his favour in what will likely be a higher scoring final.
He has kicked a goal in three of his last four games at the SCG.
Same Game Multi
Lions -13.5 / Serong 15+ Disposals / Rayner 1+ Goals / Rowbottom 8+ Tackles = $5.00
