Our best bet for Friday's AFL Elimination Final between Geelong and Carlton is the Under 169.5 Total Points / Mannagh 15+ Disposals / Dempsey 1+ Goals / Cerra 20+ Disposals Same Game Multi at $5.25, with Carlton going unders in 11 of their last 15 games under Fraser and 20 of their last 22 at the MCG failing to cover the total points line.
We get a classic on Friday night between the Cats and Blues in an Elimination Final. Can Carlton produce another win under Fraser?
Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues
The Blues have a great recent record against the Cats, winning four of the last five, but we know what Geelong is capable of in September.
Can Josh Fraser continue his miraculous run, or will Chris Scott's men be too good?
Leg 1 - Under 169.5 Total Points
Looks like it might rain a bit Friday night in Melbourne, which leads us into the unders.
Another major factor is Carlton under Josh Fraser. Since he took over from Voss, the Blues have gone unders in 11 of those 15 games.
Carlton are a big MCG unders team and have been for a long time. Their last six at the 'G, all under Fraser, have gone unders, while 20 of their last 22 games at the ground dating back to 2024 have failed to cover the total points line.
Leg 2 - Shaun Mannagh 15+ Disposals
Max Holmes does return for the Cats, but I think he'll slot into half-back in his first game back for a while.
As a result, we could continue to see Shaun Mannagh's midfield time increase. Mannagh attended 70% of centre bounces in Round 24 and 36% the week prior, having 33 and 20 disposals respectively.
He had 17 disposals last time he played the Blues in Round 12.
Leg 3 - Adam Cerra 20+ Disposals
The Blues under Fraser play a very similar offensive style to the Lions, where they rely on short kicking and changing angles, and with Nic Newman out, Adam Cerra has been vital down back for Carlton.
In Cerra's last nine games, he's hit 20+ disposals in eight of them, with the only miss being when he got injured early against the Hawks.
He averages 23 disposals in the last five games without Newman.
Leg 4 - Ollie Dempsey 1+ Goals
Has played well against the Blues in recent times, and also plays well at the MCG.
Ollie Dempsey has kicked five goals in his last three games against Carlton, including two goals in his last two.
At the 'G, Dempsey has kicked at least one goal in 16 of his last 18 games at the ground, kicking 2+ in nine of those 18 games.
Same Game Multi
Under 169.5 Total Points / Mannagh 15+ Disposals / Dempsey 1+ Goals / Cerra 20+ Disposals = $5.25
