A replay of the 2023 Australian Open Final, where Sabalenka was too good for Rybakina to claim her first Grand Slam title. But the Kazakh has been in red-hot form since October — can she square the ledger and win her first Australian Open?
LEG 1 - Elena Rybakina Over 9.5 Player Games
Rybakina is a great price in this matchup considering how well the Kazakh is playing and her hard court record against Sabalenka.
Across her last 20 matches, Rybakina is 19-1 — even more impressively, she’s 9-0 against top-ten opposition during this stretch.
Against Sabalenka, she’s won six of their last eight hard court meetings, including a straight sets victory in the WTA Finals final in November. Across those eight matches, Rybakina has covered 9.5 player games in seven of them.
LEG 2 - Aryna Sabalenka Under 5.5 Aces
Sabalenka didn’t serve a single ace against Svitolina and historically hasn’t posted big ace numbers against Rybakina on hard courts.
She has gone over 5.5 aces in just one of her last eight hard court matches against Rybakina. At this Australian Open, she has cleared this line only twice across six matches.
LEG 3 - First Set Under 10.5 Games
Despite the tightness of their career rivalry, with Sabalenka leading 8-6 overall, first-set tiebreakers between these two are rare.
Across their 14 career meetings, only three first sets have gone over 10.5 games.
Looking more broadly, only two of Rybakina’s last 20 matches have gone over 10.5 games in the opening set. The same applies to Sabalenka, with just two of her last 26 matches clearing this line.
