No one saw this coming! Novak Djokovic did the impossible against Jannik Sinner in the semifinal, in one of the great Grand Slam semifinals of all time – while Alcaraz and Zverev’s semifinal was an all-time classic. Can Djokovic win Grand Slam title number 25, or will Alcaraz complete the career Grand Slam?
LEG 1 - Carlos Alcaraz
I’m going to bank on the fact that Carlos Alcaraz doesn’t actually have a groin injury and was instead cramping in the semifinal against Zverev. I just think the Spaniard will be too good for Djokovic here.
The career record is very close, with Djokovic leading 5–4. Their service + return point percentages are almost identical: Djokovic at 100.1% and Alcaraz at 99.9%.
What Djokovic did against Sinner was outrageous, but the Serbian’s service + return point percentage was just 92.5% – the worst of any victorious player this tournament, even worse than his numbers against Musetti when he didn’t win a set.
Like he did against Sinner, can Djokovic back it up with another strategic masterstroke against Carlos? I’m not convinced he can do it again.
LEG 2 - Over 3.5 Sets
Although I think Alcaraz wins, I don’t see this being a straight-sets result. Djokovic’s record against the Spaniard is strong, particularly in big matches – last year’s Australian Open quarterfinal, the Paris Olympics gold medal match and the 2023 French Open semifinal.
Last year’s US Open was the only time Alcaraz really blew Djokovic off the court, and I don’t think that happens again given the question marks around the Spaniard’s fitness and Novak chasing Grand Slam title number 25.
LEG 3 - Under 23.5 Total Aces
Both Djokovic and Alcaraz are two of the best returners on tour, and as a result, when they’ve played historically, there hasn’t been a huge number of aces.
Last year’s US Open had a total of 11 aces, while 12 months ago there were 15 in Djokovic’s upset win. Even their two Wimbledon finals averaged just 12 total aces per match on the fast grass courts.
