Our best bet for Sunday's NRL Preliminary Final between the Penrith Panthers and Newcastle Knights is the Panthers -10.5 / Over 41.5 / Each Team Over 12.5 Same Game Multi at $5.50, with Penrith's last two meetings against the Knights producing totals of 56 and 60 points and Newcastle yet to score less than 12 points in any game this season.
Sunday delivers an unexpected Preliminary Final, with the seventh-placed Knights taking on table-toppers Penrith at Accor Stadium in Sydney.
Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights
Newcastle have been the story of the finals so far, pulling off back-to-back upsets against the Rabbitohs and Warriors to make this season's last four.
This weekend is their biggest ask so far, however, with the Panthers having had a week off after dispatching the Roosters 19-12 in their Qualifying Final.
The big news is that Nathan Cleary will play this match, despite the Penrith pivot suffering a foot injury against Sydney a fortnight ago.
Leg 1 - Panthers -10.5
This should be where the Knights' luck runs out. The fact that they've even made it this far hinged on several contentious calls last week.
Expect the Panthers to expose a gulf in quality this weekend.
Last time they played, in April this year, it was a 44-12 drubbing in Penrith's favour.
With the amount of finals experience the hosts have, five Grand Finals in six years, it's hard to not see them overwhelming an out-of-depth Newcastle here.
Leg 2 - Over 41.5 Points Total
The past two clashes between Newcastle and Penrith have produced totals of 56 and 60 points, courtesy of the Panthers racking up big scores.
While the Knights will no doubt be competitive initially, this feels like a bridge too far and they should fade in the second half. Expect the clinical Panthers to pounce when this happens and push the line well past 41.5 points.
Leg 3 - Each Team Over 12.5
Newcastle won't go down without a fight. Their attack is just too sharp.
Across the 26 matches they've played this season, at no point have they scored less than 12 points.
Even in defeat, they have a habit of picking up tries, which should be the case in this one too.
Same Game Multi
Panthers -10.5 / Over 41.5 / Each Team Over 12.5 = $5.50
Value Bet
Jenkins, Young and Marzhew are three of the top four tryscorers in the 2026 NRL, with 76 tries between them this season.
All three play out on the edge and are critical to their team's attack.
Young and Marzhew both have five tries in their last five matches. While Jenkins has been quieter with just two, he'll have the most chances of the three given Penrith's likely domination of this game.
Expect most of the game's action to come from this trio.
