Our best bet for Saturday's AFL Wildcard clash between the Melbourne Demons and Carlton Blues is the Under 174.5 Total Points / Walsh 25+ Disposals / McKay 2+ Goals / Pickett 20+ Disposals Same Game Multi at $5.10, with all nine of their last nine meetings going under the total points and Carlton's defensive profile producing unders in ten of their last 14 games under Josh Fraser.
It could be a costly Round 24 slip-up by the Demons, who now face the red-hot Blues in the final wildcard game.
Melbourne Demons vs Carlton Blues
Two first-year coaching revelations will meet in the wildcard game, as they look to advance to the top-eight.
Both teams have been in great form despite Melbourne's slip-up last week, but injuries late in the season could cost the Demons with Jake Lever and Matthew Jefferson on the sidelines, joining the suspended Jacob Van Rooyen.
Despite finishing tenth, Carlton enter this as favourites. Can they continue their incredible run under Fraser, or does Steven King have another surprise in store?
Leg 1 - Under 174.5 Total Points
Although I don't like taking unders in Melbourne games, I think this will be played in a different manner.
Since Josh Fraser took over at Carlton, their defensive profile has completely changed, resulting in ten of their last 14 games going under the total points, including all five at the MCG.
The last nine times Carlton and Melbourne have met, all nine games have gone under the total points, averaging 140.6 total points. I don't expect the total points to be this low, but still under the line of 174.5.
Leg 2 - Harry McKay 2+ Goals
The Demons look bare down back without Jake Lever, and key forwards have kicked multiple goals against them frequently over the last ten weeks.
Over the last three weeks, Naughton, Georgiades, Amiss, Voss and Treacy have combined for 17 goals against Melbourne's key defenders, and Harry McKay has been in solid form of late.
McKay has kicked 2+ goals in each of his last four weeks leading into this wildcard round, and should get plenty of opportunities again.
Leg 3 - Sam Walsh 25+ Disposals
Has had an under the radar season for the Blues in 2026.
Sam Walsh is averaging 28.5 disposals per game, and has recorded 25+ disposals in 19 of his 23 games this season.
Walsh had 31 disposals when he faced the Demons in Round 3, and enters this hitting 25+ disposals in his last seven.
Leg 4 - Kysaiah Pickett 20+ Disposals
Had a huge game against the Blues earlier in the season, finishing with 33 disposals and a goal.
From their meeting in Round 3 onwards, Pickett has averaged 23.2 disposals per game and hit 20+ disposals in 15 of the 21 games.
Recent form has been good from Kozzy, hitting 20+ disposals in nine of his last 11 games.
Same Game Multi
Under 174.5 Total Points / Walsh 25+ Disposals / McKay 2+ Goals / Pickett 20+ Disposals = $5.10
