Another big performance from Nick Daicos sees the Collingwood superstar extend his lead after Round 17, but the two others on the podium remain at big prices.
Brownlow Leaderboard - Round 17
| Rank | Name | Team | Votes | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Daicos | Coll | 29.60 | $1.75 |
| 2 | Patrick Cripps | Car | 24.26 | $26 |
| 3 | Jai Newcombe | Haw | 21.81 | $34 |
| 4 | Marcus Bontempelli | WB | 21.07 | $10 |
| 5 | Harry Sheezel | NM | 19.64 | $67 |
| 6 | Zak Butters | PA | 19.59 | $17 |
| 7 | Isaac Heeney | Syd | 19.40 | $11 |
| 8 | Bailey Smith | Gee | 18.76 | $15 |
Best Bet
Nick Daicos
It's short and we've seen this movie before back in 2023 when he got injured late and was overrun by Lachie Neale, but I just cannot see Nick Daicos getting beaten this time around.
His next two weeks are against North Melbourne, where he might get the O'Sullivan tag, followed by the Blues who he has an outstanding record against. After Carlton, the Magpies face the Crows, and we saw what Zak Butters did to them just a week ago.
Although there's still seven rounds left and Collingwood has a somewhat difficult draw, if they win three games it will likely result in three three-voters, which has Daicos pushing 40 votes. Although this wasn't enough in 2024, it will be in 2026.
Back Nick Daicos @ $1.75 with betr
Lay
Jordan Dawson
It's now Nick Daicos vs the field, with every other player listed in double digits, but I can't have Jordan Dawson fifth line of betting despite a strong outing on the weekend.
Our leaderboard doesn't have Dawson inside our top-ten, currently on 16.54 votes after Round 17.
The Adelaide skipper has been outstanding, but a slow start to the season has him coming from a long way back. There are plenty of others we have ahead of him at a far better price, such as Newcombe and Cripps.
Back Jordan Dawson @ $16 with betr
Value Bet
Jason Horne-Francis
Sheezel is the obvious value at $67, but the Kangaroos have a difficult run, so I'm taking Jason Horne-Francis who is coming in hot.
Although Port Adelaide's run isn't much easier, they have been playing the better football between the two teams when up against quality opposition, and it's off the back of Butters and Horne-Francis.
We now have Horne-Francis in tenth place on our leaderboard with 17.18 votes, potentially polling 11 votes across his last six games.
He has polled well in the past, including 16 votes in 2023 when he was projected less than eight.
Back Jason Horne-Francis @ $81 with betr
The Voting System - Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach
We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player's impact on the game.
This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.
