Friday night delivers another AFL double-header with Brisbane hosting Carlton at the Gabba, while Port Adelaide take on the Bulldogs in Adelaide.
Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues
This has the potential to get ugly for Carlton, with Brisbane holding a dominant recent record over the Blues at the Gabba.
However, despite the mismatch on paper, don’t expect a shootout.
Leg 1 - Under 186.5 Total Points
Both Brisbane and Carlton have consistently featured in lower-scoring night games across the last two seasons.
From Carlton’s last 23 night matches, 17 have finished under the total points line, with the Blues averaging just 71.4 points per game during that stretch.
The Lions have produced similar trends, with only five of their last 21 night games clearing the over.
Four of Brisbane’s last five matches have also gone under, making this total feel slightly inflated.
Leg 2 - Conor McKenna 1+ Goals
McKenna has slotted back into Brisbane’s side beautifully after strong VFL form earned him a recall.
Playing as a small forward, the Irishman has kicked two goals in each of his two games this season.
Carlton have struggled badly against smaller forwards in 2026, conceding goals to that player type 38% above league average.
Liam Henry exposed that weakness last week with three goals for St Kilda, and McKenna shapes as another dangerous matchup.
Port Adelaide Power vs Western Bulldogs
Port Adelaide pushed Adelaide all the way in last week’s Showdown and continue to build strong form under Josh Carr.
The Bulldogs were more competitive against Fremantle last round, but are still searching for their first win since Round 4.
Leg 3 - Aliir Aliir 15+ Disposals
Aliir is producing career-best numbers in Josh Carr’s system, averaging personal highs for both disposals and marks.
The Power defender is averaging 17.2 disposals per game and has reached 15+ disposals in six of eight matches this season.
Opposition defenders continue to rack up plenty of football against the Bulldogs, making this another favourable matchup.
Just two weeks ago Patrick McCartin collected 23 disposals in a very similar role against the Dogs.
Leg 4 - Zak Butters 30+ Disposals
Zak Butters is putting together a phenomenal season and the Bulldogs may not have a player capable of slowing him down.
The Port Adelaide star is averaging 30.6 disposals per game and has now recorded 30+ touches in seven consecutive matches.
He also has an excellent recent record against the Bulldogs, reaching 30 disposals in three of his last four meetings against them.
Right now, Butters looks to be in the best ball-winning form of his career.
