Queensland look to keep State of Origin 2026 alive as they take on New South Wales in Game 2 at the MCG this Wednesday.
New South Wales vs Queensland
The Blues produced one of the all-time great comebacks in Game 1, fighting their way to a 22-20 victory despite trailing 20-0 after the opening quarter.
Coach Laurie Daley has made some questionable changes to his side as New South Wales attempt to close out the series, however.
Mitchell Moses comes into five-eighth for Ethan Strange, despite the former being sidelined by injury until recently and the latter playing out of his skin in Game 1.
Payne Haas comes into prop as well, while the in-form Haumole Olakau'atu drops to the reserves.
Queensland have a more settled side, but aren't without changes too, including Reece Walsh coming onto the bench and Patrick Carrigan dropping out.
Leg 1 - Queensland to Win
Post-Covid, five of the last six Game 2s have been won by the Game 1 loser.
The case for Queensland is strong. On many metrics they should have won the opener, and almost certainly would have if not for a questionable red card in the second half.
They've proven time and time again their ability to overcome the talent gap through smart tactics and grit. Despite being underdogs heading into this clash, history says they'll level the series.
Leg 2 - Over 40.5 Points Total
Game 1 exceeded this threshold, and neutral venues typically produce higher scoring Origin games, with the last five producing 44 or more points.
Queensland have scored 18 or more points in five of their last seven matches, averaging 23.33 points across their last three.
Should the game hang in the balance in the final quarter, expect both sides to chance their arm, leading to points one way or another.
Leg 3 - Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to Score
Tabuai-Fidow came through in our Game 1 multi, and should do the same again here.
The Queensland fullback now has 12 tries in 11 Origin matches.
Playing at centre provides him with even more ball, which will mean increased chances in a game that will see plenty of points.
Same Game Multi
Queensland to Win / Over 40.5 / Tabuai-Fidow to Score = $9.50
Value Bet
Walker had a blinder in Game 1 and would have been on track for Man of the Match had the Maroons been victorious.
While he didn't get on the scoreboard, he crosses over a lot for a halfback, scoring five times already in this year's NRL, taking his career tally to 30 from 98 games.
In a must-win game like this, Queensland will likely implement more aggressive tactics, which could well involve Walker running it more from halfback.
