Three games on Saturday including the Power hosting the Swans, in what will likely be a low scoring affair at Adelaide Oval.

Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers

Leg 1 – Archie Roberts 25+ Disposals

Only 22 disposals last week for Roberts with Merrett going down back, but he will bounce back here.

The Bombers played a slow back-half, low-risk game in their only win of the season against Melbourne at Gather Round, and Roberts came away with 42 disposals in that game.

Averaging 31.5 disposals per game this season and hitting 25+ disposals in his last 11 games before last week, we will see Roberts hitting 25+ once again in this.

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs West Coast Eagles

Leg 2 – Ryan Maric 15+ Disposals

Ryan Maric will play his ninth game of the season when he takes on North Melbourne this weekend, and from his eight games so far he has a perfect record of hitting 15+ disposals.

Maric, playing the wing for West Coast, is averaging 18.5 disposals per game this season, and could benefit from the injury to Tom McCarthy, even pushing down back as one of the Eagles’ defensive half ball users.

The last time Maric didn’t record 15+ disposals when not playing as the sub was Round 22 in 2024, so he’s been super-consistent under McQualter.

Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans

Leg 3 – Under 162.5 Total Points

The Power feature in the lowest scoring games of any team this season, with an average total points of 162.8.

As a result, Port Adelaide have the lowest total points coverage rate in the competition at just 17%. They’ve played in five night games at Adelaide Oval this season and all five went under the total points line, averaging just 151 points.

The Swans are in the upper echelon of total points in the competition, but it’s driven by their scoring. They are ranked third for points against per game, and with conditions likely cold and wet, scoring will be difficult for the Power.

Leg 4 – Joel Amartey 1+ Goals

27 goals for the season so far for Joel Amartey, kicking at least one goal in 11 of his 13 games.

Amartey’s last two games against the Power show a strong correlation, with plenty of opportunities. When they played last year, Amartey went goalless but kicked six behinds, while in 2024 he kicked 3.2.

He has played well at Adelaide Oval before, kicking nine goals against the Crows in 2024.

Multi

Power vs Swans Under 162.5 Total Points / Amartey 1+ Goals / Maric 15+ Disposals / Roberts 25+ Disposals = $5.05

In Round 0 the Suns put the Cats to the sword, but a lot has changed since then. With both teams entering Friday night’s clash coming off consecutive losses, which team will respond?

Geelong Cats vs Gold Coast Suns

Don’t think many expected these teams to meet off the back of two consecutive losses, but here we are at GMHBA Stadium with the Cats hosting the Suns.

The two teams met in Round 0 for the season opener, a demolition job by the Suns that catapulted them into flag favourites.

Geelong have a real stranglehold at their home ground though, with the Suns heavy underdogs to break their losing streak.

Leg 1 – Geelong 1-39

Both teams enter this off the back of two consecutive losses, but at GMHBA I have to lean towards the Cats.

Geelong are 5-0 at the ground in 2026, including some big wins over the Swans, Dockers and Crows.

That being said, I don’t expect Geelong to blow out the Suns. Gold Coast have won three of their last four against the Cats, including Round 0 convincingly, and although they’ve been poor the last two games, they still possess plenty of star power to make a contest of this.

Leg 2 – Max Holmes 25+ Disposals

Max Holmes maintains his perfect record for 25+ disposals after recording 30 against the Crows last week.

Holmes has been playing a combination of midfield and defensive-50 this season, and is averaging 29.2 disposals per game in 2026.

The speedster had 29 disposals when the teams first met this season in Round 0.

Leg 3 – Shaun Mannagh 1+ Goals

Geelong’s record at GMHBA Stadium is also a reflection of Shaun Mannagh’s record at the ground.

The Geelong forward is averaging 1.5 goals per game at GMHBA Stadium from his last 15 games at the ground, including kicking at least one goal in four of their five home games this season. From his last nine games at GMHBA he’s slotted 16 goals.

Has kicked at least one goal in his past seven games.

Leg 4 – Christian Petracca 1+ Goals

Playing the ‘Dusty’ role at Gold Coast as the attacking centre bounce option for the Suns, Christian Petracca is still having scoreboard impact in this role.

The former Demon has kicked 16 goals from ten games this season, and kicked at least one goal in eight of those games including at least one goal in his last five.

He kicked three goals when the teams met in Round 0 in a best on ground performance.

Same Game Multi

Geelong 1-39 / Mannagh 1+ Goals / Holmes 25+ Disposals / Petracca 1+ Goals = $5.20

Both the Bulldogs and Crows have bounced back from tricky positions over the last five weeks, with the winner of this Thursday night clash looking to enter the top-four.

Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows

Both the Bulldogs and Crows have had their ups and downs in 2026, but both are now well positioned on the ladder in fifth and seventh place respectively.

When they last met in Round 2, it was the Bulldogs winning by six points at Adelaide Oval. Can the Crows turn the tables at Marvel Stadium this time around?

Leg 1 – Adelaide Crows +5.5

The Bulldogs have resurrected their season after injuries derailed them for about four weeks, but they’ve managed to win four of their last five games.

That being said, all five of those games could have gone either way with their last six games being decided by two goals or less.

Both teams have thrived as underdogs this season, but not so much as favourites. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the line in their last four games as favourites, while the Crows have covered the line as underdogs in four of their last five games. Winning six of their last eight games, I think Adelaide is well placed for an upset win in this.

Leg 2 – Sam Berry 20+ Disposals

Berry continues to be Adelaide’s primary centre bounce midfielder, and as a result he continues to hit 20+ disposals.

The Crow is averaging 22.3 disposals per game this season, and hasn’t gone below 18 touches, while hitting 20+ disposals in 10 of his 12 games.

Recording 20+ disposals in his last five, I expect Berry to do so again.

Leg 3 – Will Lewis 1+ Goals

Played the defensive forward role on Sicily last week, but Lewis has forward craft and proven that this season for the Dogs.

From his nine games this season, Lewis has kicked a total of 11 goals, kicking at least one goal in seven of those games.

Leg 4 – Josh Rachele 1+ Goals

Not a great game by Josh Rachele last week in front of the sticks, going goalless with two behinds against the Cats.

We did see Rachele in more centre bounce without Izak Rankine last week, but he still spent the majority of his time up forward.

Rachele has kicked at least one goal in 10 of his 12 games this season, and although he’ll play a hybrid mid-forward role once again, the conditions under the roof should work well for the small forward.

Same Game Multi

Crows +5.5 / Lewis 1+ Goals / Berry 20+ Disposals / Rachele 1+ Goals = $4.80

The Hawks won this matchup in Round 5 by 40 points, but without Jack Gunston does this give the Bulldogs a sniff?

Hawthorn Hawks vs Western Bulldogs

The Hawks have won the last five against the Bulldogs, but with Jack Gunston out in this clash will this cause too many problems up forward?

The Bulldogs enter this winning their last two games, but it hasn’t been easy. Their last five games have been decided by two goals or less.

Last time they met it was a big win by the Hawks, so can the Bulldogs peg it back this time around?

Leg 1 – Under 173.5 Total Points

These two teams have played in their fair share of low scoring contests dating back to 2020, which is surprising with the Bulldogs being a high-scoring team over that period.

Eight of their last ten matches have gone under the total points, averaging 152.4 points per game. The two teams met earlier in the season with the total points hitting 168, with the Bulldogs the second lowest total points coverage team in the AFL this season at just 33%.

MCG games are covering total points at 43.5% this season, and with the likely weather impacting this contest I can’t see it going overs here.

Leg 2 – Josh Weddle 15+ Disposals

With Jack Gunston out, the flow-on effect is Blake Hardwick going forward, and therefore Josh Weddle will likely settle down back for the Hawks.

Weddle has hit 15+ disposals in seven of his last eight games, which includes collecting 15 disposals last time he played the Bulldogs.

Defenders have been winning a fair bit of ball against the Dogs lately. Last week we saw Howe, Maynard and Houston all have 20+ disposals, so Weddle is well placed to have 15.

Leg 3 – Will Lewis 1+ Goals

He’s not Sam Darcy, but Will Lewis has been hitting the scoreboard for the Bulldogs lately in Darcy’s absence.

In Lewis’ last seven games, he’s kicked a total of 10 goals, kicking at least one goal in six of those. Last week against Collingwood he finished with three goals.

Leg 4 – Cam Mackenzie 20+ Disposals

Confidence is growing for Cam Mackenzie who has been attending around 50% of centre bounces this season.

Mackenzie is averaging 21.1 disposals per game this season, but he’s shown real growth over the last six weeks averaging 23.7 disposals, recording a season-high of 29 disposals against the Saints last week.

Hitting 20+ disposals in his last six games, we should see the highly touted midfielder do this from now on.

Same Game Multi

Under 173.5 Total Points / Lewis 1+ Goals / Mackenzie 20+ Disposals / Weddle 15+ Disposals = $5.80

Three games on Saturday including an all-important Q-Clash, with the loser likely to be in the spotlight, while West Coast will look to make it three wins in four weeks.

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Fremantle Dockers

Leg 1 – Josh Treacy 2+ Goals

The Fremantle key forward is putting together some season, and has been ultra-consistent in his goals output.

Treacy has kicked 2+ goals in 10 of his 12 games this season, including kicking 2+ in his last six games.

North Melbourne have improved this season, but they continue to be vulnerable against key forwards, so we should see at least two goals from Treacy.

Gold Coast Suns vs Brisbane Lions

Leg 2 – Over 186.5 Total Points

Perfect conditions on the Gold Coast Saturday for the Q-Clash, and this could be a shootout.

Five of the last six Gold Coast games at People First Stadium have gone over the total points, those five overs games all clearing 186.5 points.

The Lions play in the highest scoring games in the AFL this season, with an average total points of 196.9, while Gold Coast isn’t too far away in sixth place.

Leg 3 – Lachie Neale 25+ Disposals

Believe it or not, Lachie Neale is actually producing his highest disposals return since 2022, averaging 30.1 per game.

Neale failed to hit 25 disposals last week, but he has hit 25+ disposals in 10 of his 12 games this season, including his last eight prior to the game against the Dockers last week.

He has hit 25+ disposals in his last four games against the Suns, including 30+ in three of those games.

West Coast Eagles vs Port Adelaide Power

Leg 4 – Jase Burgoyne 20+ Disposals

Having a pretty good year on the wing for the Power, averaging a career-high 20.6 disposals per game.

Burgoyne has hit 20+ disposals in four of his last five games, which includes hitting 25+ disposals in four of those games.

When the Power and Eagles met in Round 3, Burgoyne had 21 disposals, and with the Eagles allowing disposals to wings around 5% above average, we should see Burgoyne hit 20+ again.

Multi

Lions vs Suns Over 186.5 Total Points / Neale 25+ Disposals / Treacy 2+ Goals / Burgoyne 20+ Disposals = $4.35

The Cats don’t lose two games in a row too often, and will be determined to return to the winners’ list when they head to Adelaide Oval to face the Crows.

Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats

The Crows have produced a strong seven-week stretch going 5-2, and coming off the bye they’ll be fresh when they host the Cats.

Unfortunately for the Crows though, Geelong generally bounce back after disappointing losses, with the last time they lost consecutive games going back to Round 3 last year.

Without Rankine and Thilthorpe, it won’t be easy for Adelaide.

Leg 1 – Geelong Cats

You don’t see the Cats lose two in a row too often, and Chris Scott’s men will be determined to bounce back when they head to Adelaide Oval.

They have a fantastic record over the Crows in recent years, winning nine of the last ten, including four of their last five at Adelaide Oval.

Adelaide will be without Rankine and Thilthorpe in this, and have really fired lately off the back of the injection of Rankine into the midfield. It’s going to be a tall ask to get past Geelong in this.

Leg 2 – Shaun Mannagh 1+ Goals

Started the season fairly slowly, kicking five goals in the first six games and being goalless in three of those, but Shaun Mannagh’s recent form has been elite.

The Geelong forward has kicked 15 goals from his last six games, kicking at least one goal in all six.

Mannagh had a strong outing last time the teams met in Round 3 with 24 disposals and a goal, and on his current form really should be hitting the scoreboard.

Leg 3 – Sam Berry 20+ Disposals

Sam Berry has been a staple inside the Adelaide midfield this season, as their leading centre bounce midfielder across the year.

Berry is averaging a career-high 22.6 disposals per game, and has hit 20+ disposals in nine of his last ten games.

Without Rankine, expect Berry to play an even more important role for the Crows at centre bounce, with the midfielder recording 22 disposals last time the teams met earlier in the season.

Leg 4 – Connor O’Sullivan 15+ Disposals

Although O’Sullivan is a key defensive post for the Cats, his numbers continue to improve each week he plays off the back of his intercept game.

O’Sullivan is averaging 15.8 disposals per game this season, and has hit 15+ disposals in his last three games.

Most importantly though is what he did against the Cats when they met in Round 3. The defender had a career-high 23 disposals, with a number of key intercept-type defenders producing strong numbers against the Crows in 2026.

Same Game Multi

Geelong / Mannagh 1+ Goals / Berry 20+ Disposals / O’Sullivan 15+ Disposals = $5.00

Just the three games on Saturday with the bye rounds getting started from Round 12, including a big twilight clash between the Lions and the ladder-leading Dockers.

Sydney Swans vs Richmond Tigers

Leg 1 – Isaac Heeney 25+ Disposals

I think we’re about to see Isaac Heeney unleash in this one against the Tigers.

In two of the last three weeks, Heeney has copped some of the better tags in the competition, with Mullin last week and O’Sullivan from North Melbourne three weeks ago, failing to hit 25+ disposals in both of those games.

In his last five games excluding these though, Heeney is averaging 30.4 disposals, hitting 30+ in three of those and really should again against Richmond. The Tigers are one of the easier teams in the competition for midfielders to produce disposals against, emphasised by Parish’s 41 last week.

Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers

Leg 2 – Over 183.5 Total Points

Brisbane are playing in the highest scoring games of 2026, with the average total points per game at 198.4.

Nine of the Lions 11 games this season have gone over the total points including the last six, and as favourites that overs coverage rate is at 90% in 2026.

Four of the last five games played between Brisbane and Fremantle have gone over the total points, and with the star-power in each forward line we should see another high scoring game in this.

Leg 3 – Murphy Reid 20+ Disposals

Murphy Reid’s last fortnight has been exceptional, and with Caleb Serong and Hayden Young still missing from this Dockers midfield we should continue to see him around the ball.

Reid has recorded 20+ disposals in his last ten games for the Dockers, with his only miss in Fremantle’s first game of the season against Geelong where he had 19.

With 30 disposals in his last two games, he will be hitting 20+ in this with ease.

Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood Magpies

Leg 4 – Lachie Schultz 1+ Goals

No Jamie Elliott for the Pies for the remainder of the 2026 season, so Lachie Schultz will be their primary small forward option.

Schultz has kicked at least one goal in each of his last five games, giving him at least one goal in nine of his 11 games this season, with a total of 11 goals for the season.

Although the Magpie only kicked 13 goals in 2025, since returning from injury in Round 18 last year, Schultz has kicked at least one goal in 16 of his last 20 games.

Multi

Lions vs Dockers Over 183.5 Total Points / Murphy Reid 20+ Disposals / Heeney 25+ Disposals / Schultz 1+ Goals = $5.00

Are the Blues back in town? Or is a reality check on the way when they face one of the most in-form teams in the competition in Geelong.

Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats

Carlton have won their last two games under Josh Fraser, but come up against one of the flag favourites in the Cats.

It was only last year when the Blues upset Geelong at the MCG, so can they cause another upset here or will Josh Fraser’s undefeated run come to an end?

Leg 1 – Under 178.5 Total Points

Not entirely sure what Josh Fraser has done from a defensive standpoint in the last fortnight, but the Blues have tightened opposition scoring right up, conceding 62 points to the Bulldogs followed by 58 against the Power last week, both games going unders.

Geelong is a different beast, but with a bit of rain around I’m not expecting a shootout.

Carlton have notoriously been an unders team in night games at the MCG dating back to 2022. From their last 29 night games at the ground, 23 have gone unders including 10 of their last 12, with only one of those 29 games going over 178.5 total points.

Leg 2 – Patrick Cripps 25+ Disposals

I expect Mullin to go to Sam Walsh, with the Cats tagger likely to have more impact in stopping the run and spread of Walsh opposed to the stoppage style of Cripps.

Patrick Cripps has copped a bit of flack this season, but his numbers have been very good for the majority of it. The skipper has hit 25+ disposals in six of his last seven games, averaging 27.4 over this stretch.

Cripps’ record against Geelong is solid. He’s hit 25+ disposals in his last four games against the Cats, including 41 in 2024.

Leg 3 – Jeremy Cameron 15+ Disposals

Jeremy Cameron has a license to move up the ground, and it’s becoming more frequent for the star Cat.

Since Geelong’s loss to Port Adelaide in Round 7, we’ve seen Cameron further up the ground where he’s averaged 18.8 disposals per game, hitting 15+ disposals in all four games.

He had 14 touches when they met last year, but in the four games prior against the Blues he recorded 15+ disposals, and assuming Cameron keeps pushing to the wing we’ll see him hit 15+ again.

Leg 4 – Max Holmes 25+ Disposals

Down back? In the middle? Doesn’t matter. Max Holmes has hit 25+ disposals in all 11 games he’s played this season.

Holmes had a breakout year in 2025, but his 2026 numbers are putting them to shame, with Holmes averaging a career-high 29.6 disposals per game.

Hewett might put some work into Holmes if he plays down back, but when in the middle I expect him to run riot.

Same Game Multi

Under 178.5 Total Points / Cripps 25+ Disposals / Cameron 15+ Disposals / Holmes 25+ Disposals = $5.00

Alongside that milestone, we also get a blockbuster clash between Geelong and Sydney, while Port Adelaide host Carlton at Adelaide Oval.

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Gold Coast Suns

Leg 1 – Zane Duursma 1+ Goals

Zane Duursma had a quieter outing last week against Adelaide, but he certainly wasn’t alone in North Melbourne’s disappointing performance.

The young Kangaroos forward has still shown encouraging signs throughout the middle portion of the season.

Across the last eight weeks, Duursma has kicked 13 goals and has hit the scoreboard in five of those matches.

Marvel Stadium also appears to suit his game perfectly.

In his last four appearances at the venue, Duursma has booted 10 goals.

Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans

Leg 2 – Chad Warner 1+ Goals

Chad Warner’s role has shifted noticeably in 2026, spending far more time rotating between midfield and forward.

His scoreboard impact has remained excellent.

Warner has kicked 12 goals this season and has recorded at least one major in eight of his 10 matches.

With Geelong likely to send Oisin Mullin toward Isaac Heeney, Warner should receive more freedom around stoppages and inside 50.

That should translate into another goal-scoring performance.

Collingwood Magpies vs West Coast Eagles

Leg 3 – Nick Daicos 30+ Disposals

West Coast simply do not have a matchup capable of slowing Nick Daicos.

The Collingwood superstar has fallen just short of 30 disposals over the past fortnight, but those performances came against two elite taggers in Oisin Mullin and James Jordan.

Even then, Daicos still managed 29 disposals in both games.

Before that stretch, he had opened the season with seven straight matches of 30+ disposals.

In Scott Pendlebury’s historic 433rd game, in front of what should be a massive pro-Collingwood crowd, Daicos looks primed for another monster performance.

Port Adelaide Power vs Carlton Blues

Leg 4 – Port Adelaide Win

Interim coaches often produce a short-term bounce in their first game, but history suggests maintaining that momentum becomes far more difficult in week two.

Across the last 10 caretaker coaching appointments, teams are 5-5 first-up, but just 2-7 in the second game.

Josh Fraser now faces that challenge against a Port Adelaide side that has quietly been far more competitive than their win-loss record suggests.

The Power have covered the line in five straight matches and continue to perform strongly in underlying metrics despite sitting outside the top eight.

At Adelaide Oval, they look well placed to halt Carlton’s momentum.

Same Game Multi

Zane Duursma 1+ Goals / Chad Warner 1+ Goals / Nick Daicos 30+ Disposals / Port Adelaide Power = $5.75

Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers

The pre-game festivities should once again deliver an incredible atmosphere at the MCG, even if the football itself may not reach the same heights.

Richmond are battling significant injury issues and only just managed to field a full squad, while Essendon also enter the clash with just one win to their name in 2026.

On paper, the Bombers should probably win, but the stronger value appears to sit within the player and game markets rather than trying to predict the result outright.

Leg 1 – Under 172.5 Total Points

Everything points toward a lower-scoring contest.

The last four meetings between these clubs have all gone under the total points line, averaging just 130.8 points per game.

Last season, in a similarly scrappy matchup between the sides, the game produced only 83 total points.

Essendon’s recent night games at the MCG have also trended heavily toward the under, with four of their last five finishing below the line.

Meanwhile, 14 of Richmond’s last 16 matches at the MCG have also gone under.

Leg 2 – Jaxon Prior 15+ Disposals

Essendon are likely to adopt a slower, possession-heavy style similar to what they used against Melbourne earlier this season.

That game style suits Jaxon Prior perfectly across half-back.

Prior is averaging 16.4 disposals per game this season and has recorded 15+ disposals in six of his last eight matches.

Against Melbourne, he finished with 17 disposals and 10 marks while playing a key role in Essendon’s controlled ball movement.

With Ben McKay returning to handle more defensive responsibility, Prior should be freed up to intercept and distribute.

Leg 3 – Sullivan Robey 1+ Goals

Sullivan Robey has been one of the few bright spots in a difficult season for Essendon supporters.

The young forward kicked two goals against Fremantle last week and looks capable of a genuine breakout performance against an undermanned Richmond defence.

Robey was a prolific scorer during the back half of last year in the Coates Talent League and has now kicked at least one goal in three of his last five AFL appearances.

This matchup gives him every chance to continue that run.

Leg 4 – Jack Ross 20+ Disposals

Jack Ross has quietly become Richmond’s most reliable midfielder throughout 2026.

He’s averaging 23.5 disposals per game this season and has reached 20+ disposals in eight of his 10 matches, including each of his last five.

Across that five-game stretch, Ross is averaging an impressive 26.2 disposals.

Essendon are conceding the second most disposals in the AFL this season, particularly to opposition midfielders, which sets this matchup up nicely for Ross once again.

Same Game Multi

Under 172.5 Total Points / Prior 15+ Disposals / Robey 1+ Goals / Ross 20+ Disposals = $5.60