Our best bet for the 2026 AFL Grand Final Norm Smith Medal is Hayden Young at $15, with the Fremantle midfielder fitting the proven goal-kicking profile that has defined winners over the last 12 years. Will Ashcroft is our next best at $5, with Charlie Cameron at $34 and Jye Amiss at $61 as value plays.

Will Ashcroft will look to create history as the first player to ever win three consecutive Norm Smith Medals, while there are a number of Fremantle players who could challenge for Best on Ground if there is an upset win.

Norm Smith Medal

We’ve seen some long shots win the Norm Smith Medal over the last few years. Isaac Smith in 2022 paid $51, while Bobby Hill was listed as a $101 shot.

They both had one thing in common though, which is the key trend over the last 12 years. 11 of the last 12 Norm Smith Medalists have kicked goals in the Grand Final, with eight of those 11 kicking multiple goals.

The last two years we’ve seen Will Ashcroft record 30+ disposals with a goal, which has seen him awarded best player on the ground, listed at $21 in his 2024 effort.

Who can carve out this type of performance on Saturday?

Best Bet

Hayden Young @ $15

Young was enormous in Fremantle’s Preliminary Final win, with 28 disposals and a huge game-changing goal at the three-quarter time siren.

Interesting to see whether Dunkley goes to Young or Serong, but of Fremantle’s primary midfield mix Young fits the Norm Smith Medal profile best as a proven goal-kicking midfielder. Although his season goals are down, the last fortnight he’s hit the scoreboard and come up big.

If the Dockers win, I feel he’s the main contender.

Hayden Young @ $15

Next Best

Will Ashcroft @ $5

It’s a short price, but we’ve seen him do this the last two years and Will Ashcroft’s form this season has been significantly stronger than the two years prior.

He had 28 disposals and a goal in last week’s Preliminary Final, which is the Norm Smith Medal template and comparable to what he produced in 2024 and 2025.

I don’t think Matt Johnson will run with him due to Fremantle’s midfield mix, which means we’ll likely see Ashcroft off the chain once again.

Will Ashcroft @ $5

Value Bets

Charlie Cameron @ $34

He’s kicked goals on the big stage before. Cameron kicked four in last year’s Grand Final against the Cats, and you can make a case he’s in far better form in 2026.

He kicked three last week against the Hawks and five the week prior against the Crows.

Judd McVee will likely get the job. If Charlie kicks four, he’s well and truly in the mix.

Charlie Cameron @ $34

Jye Amiss @ $61

Key forwards don’t win Norm Smith Medals, but could this be the year? Brisbane is prone to conceding monster scores when they lose, and the damage is done by key forwards.

In their Qualifying Final loss to the Swans, McDonald, Curnow and McLean combined for 14 goals, while Gunston and Lewis had nine between them last week. When they lost to the Blues in Round 21, Kemp kicked five and McKay polled a Brownlow vote for 20 disposals and three goals. The Lions and Tigers have conceded the most 4+ goal games to key forwards this season.

In Round 12, it was Patrick Voss and Jye Amiss that did the damage, kicking four goals each. Voss got three votes from the umpires and Amiss two. So could this be the year?

Amiss kicked 4.4 in their Round 12 win and could have gone real big. He’s had a quiet finals series, but kicked three bags of five goals across his last four home-and-away games. With Voss likely to play as a defensive forward against Harris Andrews, and Gallop probably going with Treacy, it looks like Darcy Gardiner might have to go to Amiss.

Jye Amiss @ $61

AFL Grand Final Tips – Dockers vs Lions $5.35 Same Game Multi

Our best bet for the 2026 AFL Grand Final between Fremantle and Brisbane is the Under 204.5 Total Points / Brayshaw, Serong and Zorko combine for 70+ Disposals / Cameron 2+ Goals / Jackson 1+ Goals Same Game Multi at $5.35, with 16 of the last 18 Grand Finals landing under 204.5 points and Charlie Cameron kicking 2+ goals in 10 of his last 11 games against Fremantle.

The Brisbane Lions enter favourites to secure a three-peat, while the Dockers look to create history with their first ever premiership.

Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions

What a contest we have. The Dockers have been the best team all season, but the recent offensive firepower displayed by the Lions will see them enter this Grand Final as favourites.

They clearly have experience on their side, with the Dockers showing throughout this finals series that nerves can get the better of them, but this contest will not be like any of the Fremantle finals we’ve seen so far. The Lions lack the pressure that troubled the Dockers on multiple occasions over the last few weeks.

Can the Dockers land their first ever premiership, or will the Lions produce their second three-peat in the last 25 years?

Leg 1 – Under 204.5 Total Points

It’s always brave taking unders in a Brisbane game, which is why I’ve taken the alternate total points line, but I think how the structure, flow and conditions map out we won’t see a ridiculous shootout like last week.

19 of Fremantle’s 21 wins this season went under 204.5 points, and surprisingly so did 11 of Brisbane’s 18 wins, while Grand Final history aligns. 16 of the last 18 Grand Finals, excluding the shortened quarters of 2020, landed under 204.5, including nine of the last ten.

Brisbane do their damage when scoring points from turnover, but the Dockers are the best team in the AFL this season at restricting scores this way. With this being a low pressure game, both teams ranked bottom-three for pressure acts this season, and the Lions being the worst tackling team this season, expect Fremantle to look to control the football from back-half. That’s something they haven’t managed to do too well most of this finals series against the pressure of the Hawks, and in three quarters against the Swans last week.

We’re also looking at 14 degrees with some rain. In their last ten games in similar conditions, Fremantle are 9-1 while the Lions are 5-5, with only 30% of those Fremantle games going overs.

Leg 2 – Brayshaw, Serong and Zorko Combine for 70+ Disposals

Josh Dunkley may go to Serong in this, or potentially Hayden Young, but even if he runs with Serong I feel these three players combined will still record 70+ disposals.

Across the finals so far, Brayshaw and Serong have combined for 57, 47 and 50 disposals. Zorko on the other hand is averaging just under 25 disposals per game this finals series.

The last six times the trio have featured in the same game, they’ve averaged 85.7 disposals per game between them.

Leg 3 – Charlie Cameron 2+ Goals

Charlie Cameron is in great form this season, and his finals record stacks up.

In last year’s Grand Final, Cameron kicked four goals, and although he finished with 1.2 against the Swans in the 2024 Grand Final, he had a productive 14 touches. In Brisbane’s loss to the Pies in 2023, he kicked three goals.

Cameron has kicked 2+ goals in 19 of his last 21 games, while kicking 27 goals from his last 11 games against Fremantle, finishing with 2+ goals in ten of those games.

He has kicked 12 goals from his last four games at the MCG.

Leg 4 – Luke Jackson 1+ Goals

Has produced some huge moments this finals series and has impacted the scoreboard throughout.

Jackson has kicked 1+ goals in 12 of his last 15 games, including his last four, and has troubled the Lions across his career.

In his last five games against Brisbane, Jackson has kicked 1+ goal, and there’s no doubt he’ll look to challenge Sam Draper and Darcy Fort inside Fremantle’s 50.

Same Game Multi

Under 204.5 Total Points / Brayshaw, Serong and Zorko Combine for 70+ Disposals / Cameron 2+ Goals / Jackson 1+ Goals = $5.35

Our best bet for Saturday’s AFL Preliminary Final between Hawthorn and Brisbane is the Over 188.5 Total Points / Moore 15+ Disposals / Rayner 1+ Goals / McCluggage 3+ Tackles Same Game Multi at $5.90, with all eight of the Lions’ MCG finals since 2022 going over the total points and Cam Rayner kicking a goal in nine of his last ten games at the ground.

The Brisbane Lions look to make their fourth consecutive Grand Final, with the Hawks standing in their way. Will Chris Fagan’s men be too good, or can the Hawks make their first Grand Final since 2015?

Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions

What a contest we have at the MCG on Saturday evening, with the Lions marginal favourites off the back of their demolition job on the Crows.

Brisbane did belt the Hawks recently at the Gabba, winning by 67 points in Round 22, but don’t expect a similar scoreline this time around.

Sam Mitchell will no doubt make some major adjustments this time around, but will it be enough against a Lions outfit full of firepower?

Leg 1 – Over 188.5 Total Points

The Lions don’t generally play in low-scoring grinds. At least one team is going to kick a score, and we should see the total points clear.

Brisbane has the highest total points coverage rate in the AFL season, going at 72%, which includes nine of their last 12 games.

At the MCG, it’s even more evident in finals. Since 2022, the Lions have played in eight finals matches at the MCG and all eight have gone over the total points. Their last five games at the MCG have gone over the total points, and in these twilight conditions on Saturday we should see plenty of goals.

Leg 2 – Dylan Moore 15+ Disposals

Dylan Moore hasn’t had an outstanding year compared to what we’ve seen in past years, but his last nine games have shown enough.

Moore has averaged 18.8 disposals from his last nine, hitting 15+ disposals in eight of those games.

Over his career, Moore has been consistent against the Lions, averaging 18.3 disposals across seven games and hitting 15+ disposals in all seven.

Leg 3 – Cam Rayner 1+ Goals

Does play well at the MCG, and does play well against the Hawks.

Cam Rayner had a career-best outing in Brisbane’s win over Adelaide last week, and although backing it up can be an issue for Rayner, this scenario maps out nicely for him.

Rayner has kicked a goal in nine of his last ten games at the MCG, including two goals in each of the last two Preliminary Finals. Against the Hawks over his career, Rayner has kicked at least one goal in ten of 11 games, totalling 18 goals against Hawthorn dating back to 2018.

Leg 4 – Hugh McCluggage 3+ Tackles

Was certainly more involved in Brisbane’s win last week, finishing with three tackles, and should do so again in this Preliminary Final.

Despite an underwhelming year, McCluggage has recorded 3+ tackles in five of his last seven games.

In finals, McCluggage has had 3+ tackles in ten of his last 12 finals matches, and he’s produced big tackle numbers against the Hawks across his career, hitting 3+ in his last six games against Hawthorn where he’s averaged 6.5 tackles.

Same Game Multi

Over 188.5 Total Points / Moore 15+ Disposals / Rayner 1+ Goals / McCluggage 3+ Tackles = $5.90

Our best bet for Sunday’s AFL Preliminary Final between Sydney and Fremantle is the Fremantle 1-39 / Johnson 15+ Disposals / Treacy 2+ Goals / Curnow 2+ Goals Same Game Multi at $5.50, with the Dockers ranked second for restricting points from defensive half this season and Josh Treacy kicking 2+ goals in each of his last four games against the Swans.

The Swans enter this as underdogs but showed what they’re still capable of in their Qualifying Final win over the Lions despite an undermanned squad. Can they cause another upset against the Dockers?

Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers

Can the Swans pull off the impossible and reach this year’s Grand Final? They enter as underdogs, and for good reason. They’ll be without Heeney, Warner, Blakey and Mills for this Preliminary Final against the Dockers.

Fremantle’s second half against the Swans in Round 18 was as explosive as we’ve seen from any team this season. This game won’t be at Optus Stadium which makes the task a more difficult one, but the Dockers will enter with a level of confidence off the back of how they played last week against the Cats.

Leg 1 – Fremantle 1-39

What Sydney did to Brisbane in the Qualifying Final was simply incredible, but I don’t think Fremantle’s system will allow the Swans the same luxuries they had in Week 1.

The Swans scored 55 points from defensive half against the Lions, with Sydney ranked number one for defensive half scoring in the competition this year. Unfortunately for the Swans though, the Dockers are the second best team at restricting points from defensive half this season, which was on display in Fremantle’s Round 18 win over Sydney with their second-half onslaught.

The Crows are ranked first for restricting points from defensive half this season and beat the Swans in Round 19 at the SCG.

I don’t see Fremantle blowing out the Swans. Throughout the year they didn’t beat any of the teams that made finals by 40+ points, and it’s more likely this margin is within three goals.

Leg 2 – Matthew Johnson 15+ Disposals

An integral piece to this Dockers midfield mix, mainly playing as a wing but also tasked with defensive midfield roles. He may run with Gulden in this Preliminary Final.

Johnson has hit 15+ disposals in 14 of his last 15 games, falling one short in the Qualifying Final against the Hawks where most Dockers were poor.

He’s played well against the Swans over his career, hitting 15+ disposals in his last five games against them, including 20+ in four of those. He recorded 24 disposals in Fremantle’s Round 18 win.

Leg 3 – Josh Treacy 2+ Goals

Has played well against the Swans in recent years, and was close to best-on-ground in their Round 18 win, kicking four goals to go with 18 disposals.

The big man is definitely due for a big finals performance. He was poor in their loss to Hawthorn, and although he was solid last week against Geelong, he still only finished with one goal.

Treacy’s record against Sydney stacks up though. He’s kicked 12 goals from their last four games, kicking 2+ on all four occasions.

Leg 4 – Charlie Curnow 2+ Goals

Key forwards can get a hold of the Dockers, and Curnow caused them huge issues in Round 18 kicking five goals.

Oscar McDonald is probably the matchup here, which has to work in Curnow’s favour. The Coleman Medalist has played well against Fremantle in recent times, kicking 2+ goals in the last five games he’s faced them and combining for 17 goals in those games.

Curnow has been huge at the SCG lately, kicking 2+ goals in six of his last seven at the ground, including four games with 5+ goals, a total of 29 goals from those seven.

Over 188.5 Total Points / Moore 15+ Disposals / Rayner 1+ Goals / McCluggage 3+ Tackles = $5.90

Our best bets for Brownlow Medal Night 2026 are Patrick Cripps Top 5 at $1.80 and Max Gawn Top 10 at $1.90, with value plays including Luke Jackson Top 20 at $2.20 and a Teams Multi at $8.81 combining Jackson, Oliver, Gawn and Petracca.

The Brownlow Medal count is almost here, and while Nick Daicos at $1.01 is as close to a lock as it gets, there’s genuine value to be found in the prop markets and exotics. Our AFL Brownlow Predictor has tracked every round of the count this season, and here are our best plays heading into tonight.

Best Bet

Patrick Cripps – Top 5 @ $1.80

Cripps would be close to the best poller we’ve ever seen, and the season Patrick Cripps produced went slightly under the radar.

In Carlton’s wins and draw, Cripps averaged 28.2 disposals per game, along with 8.2 clearances and 14.8 contested possessions. As a result, we have him polling in ten of those games, and potentially 11.

We have Cripps in second place on our leaderboard with 33.24 votes behind Daicos, so the top-five market appears a great bet at this price. The Blues’ skipper is also paying $19 without Daicos, $6.50 to finish top-three and $5.75 to poll 30+ votes.

Patrick Cripps Top 5 @ $1.80

Next Best

Max Gawn – Top 10 @ $1.90

Although most ruckmen don’t poll, Max does. Last year Gawn finished in ninth place despite the Dees winning just seven games, while Christian Petracca polled 16 votes as one of his competitors.

There’s now no Petracca, and Melbourne has won 15 games. Gawn produced a career-high season for disposals with 21.5 per game, while having his best goals output since 2022 and a career-high clearances per game at 6.6.

We have Gawn just outside the top-five with 24.66 votes, an improvement on his career-high 23 votes last year, which should be enough for a top-10 finish.

Max Gawn Top 10 @ $1.90

Value Bets

Luke Jackson – Top 20 @ $2.20

At Round 18, Luke Jackson was the sixth line of betting paying as short as $13 to win the Brownlow. Now we are getting plus money for the Dockers ruckman to finish top-20.

Jackson polled extremely well last year with 17 votes, and that was while more often than not splitting ruck duties. Now as the primary ruck, I think we’ll see the big man poll even stronger in 2026.

We have Jackson on 17.27 votes, which should be enough to have him inside the top-20 this year.

Luke Jackson Top 20 @ $2.20

Willem Duursma – To Poll a Vote @ $2.75

It’s Round 12, and the Eagles have just beaten the Bombers by five goals. Willem Duursma is the Rising Star favourite, and it’s off the back of this performance.

The number one pick had 25 disposals and a goal against Essendon, including five tackles, an equal team-high four clearances and strong impact throughout.

Although there’s a handful of players around the 25-disposal mark for the Eagles in this win, Duursma’s impact should see him in the votes.

Willem Duursma to Poll a Vote @ $2.75

Clayton Oliver – Top 20 @ $6.00

Contested possessions has been a core ingredient to Brownlow success historically, and Clayton Oliver won a heap of them this season, ranked first in the AFL with 14.9 per game.

Oliver produced similar numbers when at his peak at Melbourne, and although he underpolled badly in 2023, in 2021 and 2022 he polled 31 and 25 votes respectively.

The first half of Oliver’s season was really strong, and we’ve got him around 20th place at a very healthy price.

Clayton Oliver Top 20 @ $6.00

Christian Petracca – 15+ Votes @ $5.75

Another former Demon, and it appears everyone has forgotten how good Christian Petracca was at the start of the season, in conjunction with Gold Coast winning games.

After the bye, Petracca falls right away with the potential of polling minimal in Rounds 15 and 17, but before the bye we have Petracca pushing 15 votes by Round 11.

He is a proven poller. Petracca has polled 16+ votes in each of the last six seasons. The $17 for top-20 is also worth a small play.

Christian Petracca 15+ Votes @ $5.75

Sam Durham – Most Essendon Votes @ $6.00

Zach Merrett is the favourite for this market, but the Bomber played a different role in 2026 to what we’re used to, winning a lot of uncontested ball from the back-half.

Sam Durham had a big game in Round 13 against the Blues, in which the Bombers only lost by five points, finishing with 30 disposals and a goal, along with ten marks, 11 contested possessions and eight score involvements.

In Essendon’s Round 19 win, Durham will go head-to-head with Merrett for the maximum votes, having finished with 25 disposals and a team-high 13 contested possessions, six score involvements and seven clearances.

Sam Durham Most Essendon Votes @ $6.00

Teams Multi

Combining our four best value plays into one multi across the top Brownlow pollers from their respective clubs.

Jackson (Fre) / Oliver (GWS) / Gawn (Mel) / Petracca (GC) = $8.81

The minor premiers get another chance on Friday night, heading back to Optus Stadium to face a seasoned Geelong outfit riding a seven-game winning streak.

Brisbane didn’t help their three-peat chances with a poor performance against the Swans. Will they respond on Saturday night back at home at the Gabba against the Crows?

Our best bet for Sunday’s AFL Elimination Final between Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs is the Bulldogs +17.5 / Rankine 25+ Disposals / Bontempelli 25+ Disposals / Berry 5+ Tackles Same Game Multi at $5.10, with the Crows holding the worst coverage rate as favourites this season and the Bulldogs covering the spread in 69% of games as underdogs.

The last of our week one finals match-ups between the Crows and Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval, with the pressure firmly on Adelaide.

Our best bet for Saturday’s AFL Qualifying Final between Sydney and Brisbane is the Lions -13.5 / Serong 15+ Disposals / Rayner 1+ Goals / Rowbottom 8+ Tackles Same Game Multi at $5.00, with the Lions winning six of their last eight against the Swans and James Rowbottom laying 12 tackles last round with increased centre bounce time.

The Lions are in the box seat to secure a home Preliminary Final, when they face an undermanned Swans outfit in the second Qualifying Final.

Our best bet for Friday’s AFL Elimination Final between Geelong and Carlton is the Under 169.5 Total Points / Mannagh 15+ Disposals / Dempsey 1+ Goals / Cerra 20+ Disposals Same Game Multi at $5.25, with Carlton going unders in 11 of their last 15 games under Fraser and 20 of their last 22 at the MCG failing to cover the total points line.

We get a classic on Friday night between the Cats and Blues in an Elimination Final. Can Carlton produce another win under Fraser?