AFL Previews – Betr Blog

Sunday AFL Tips – Bulldogs to Cover in $5.10 Same Game Multi Elimination Final

Dale Crotty — Fri, 04 Sep 2026 10:04:53 +0000

Our best bet for Sunday’s AFL Elimination Final between Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs is the Bulldogs +17.5 / Rankine 25+ Disposals / Bontempelli 25+ Disposals / Berry 5+ Tackles Same Game Multi at $5.10, with the Crows holding the worst coverage rate as favourites this season and the Bulldogs covering the spread in 69% of games as underdogs.

The last of our week one finals match-ups between the Crows and Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval, with the pressure firmly on Adelaide.

Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs

All the pressure on the Crows in this after their straight sets exit from top position in 2025.

Adelaide did a number on the Bulldogs in Round 14, but since then Bevo has made some serious structural changes to how they defend, featuring in some of the lowest scoring games of the season.

Will Matthew Nicks finally record his first finals win as coach, or will the Bulldogs spoil the party?

Leg 1 – Western Bulldogs +17.5

The Bulldogs have embraced underdog status this season, with a coverage rate of 69% when listed as outsiders, ranking them equal-second amongst all teams that have been underdogs at least five times in 2026.

As for the Crows, as favourites it’s been quite the contrary. Adelaide have the worst coverage rate as favourites this season amongst teams that have been favourites at least five times, with a 31% coverage rate, and when favourites at Adelaide Oval that number drops to 30%.

The Western Bulldogs have changed their defensive structure since the last time these teams met, when the Crows smashed them at Marvel Stadium, so the Adelaide key forwards shouldn’t have it as easy this time around.

Leg 2 – Izak Rankine 25+ Disposals

Numbers have been off the charts lately, and looking at this Western Bulldogs midfield mix without Matt Kennedy, I think if the Dogs are going to put defensive attention into anyone it will be Jordan Dawson, especially after what he did to them in Round 14.

In Rankine’s last eight games, he’s averaging 30.8 disposals per game, hitting 25+ disposals in seven of those eight.

Rhylee West might spend some time on him when attending centre bounce, but can’t see it being a full-time job for the small forward.

Leg 3 – Marcus Bontempelli 25+ Disposals

Will Lewis comes in for Matt Kennedy, which indicates that Bontempelli will be spending nearly all his time in the middle.

From Bont’s last ten games, he’s hit 25+ disposals in seven of them, and enters this off the back of a 32-disposal game against Collingwood in the wildcard.

Although Dawson probably runs with him in some capacity, it hasn’t troubled Bont in the past. He’s averaged 27.4 disposals in his last 12 games against the Crows, hitting 25+ in nine of them, including the last five.

Leg 4 – Sam Berry 5+ Tackles

Clearly enjoys playing at Adelaide Oval as the in-and-under midfielder for the Crows.

Berry is the number one ranked tackler in the AFL this season, averaging 7.3 per game, and this is heavily skewed in favour of games at home.

At Adelaide Oval, he’s averaging 8.5 tackles per game and has hit 5+ tackles in all 13 games at the ground this season.

Same Game Multi

Bulldogs +17.5 / Rankine 25+ Disposals / Bontempelli 25+ Disposals / Berry 5+ Tackles = $5.10

Saturday AFL Tips – Lions to Advance in $5.00 Same Game Multi Qualifying Final

Dale Crotty — Fri, 04 Sep 2026 00:47:45 +0000

Our best bet for Saturday’s AFL Qualifying Final between Sydney and Brisbane is the Lions -13.5 / Serong 15+ Disposals / Rayner 1+ Goals / Rowbottom 8+ Tackles Same Game Multi at $5.00, with the Lions winning six of their last eight against the Swans and James Rowbottom laying 12 tackles last round with increased centre bounce time.

The Lions are in the box seat to secure a home Preliminary Final, when they face an undermanned Swans outfit in the second Qualifying Final.

Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions

The Lions are red-hot favourites heading to the SCG due to the well-publicised absences of key Swans players, but they still have to head into Sydney’s home ground against a bit of an unknown commodity.

The weather looks absolutely perfect. Expect a high scoring affair on a fast deck at the SCG.

Leg 1 – Brisbane -13.5

The unexpectedness of the Swans could trouble the Lions early in this, but ultimately they should be winning this game somewhat comfortably.

The Lions have won six of their last eight against Sydney including Round 16 by 43 points, a game where Warner kicked four goals and Heeney had 30 disposals.

The Swans may be able to keep this close up until half-time, but watch Brisbane’s match winners be too good in the end.

Leg 2 – Jai Serong 15+ Disposals

Has been thrown into centre bounce over the last month, but in Round 24 that number moved to 61%, the third highest Swan behind Grundy and Rowbottom.

As a result, Serong finished with 24 disposals and six clearances, hitting 15+ disposals in his last three games where his midfield minutes have spiked.

He could be utilised to slow down Will Ashcroft in a defensive role, but we’ll see him around the ball.

Leg 3 – James Rowbottom 8+ Tackles

Rowbottom is ranked top-five in the AFL for tackles per game, the catch being he’s primarily played as a half-forward most of the year.

Last round Rowbottom’s centre bounce attendances jumped to 87% without Heeney and Warner, resulting in him laying 12 tackles, and against the Giants he attended 45% of centre bounces and had 11 tackles.

He recorded six tackles against the Lions last time they met with only 9% of centre bounces, while in the 2024 finals series Rowbottom had 11 tackles in three of those finals matches.

Leg 4 – Cam Rayner 1+ Goals

We have seen Cam Rayner play some huge finals matches over his career, but we’re also not entirely sure what Rayner we will get. That being said, the Lions should be in a strong enough position late where we’ll see him hit the scoreboard.

Rayner has kicked a goal in 18 of his 23 games this season, and the conditions in Sydney on Saturday should work in his favour in what will likely be a higher scoring final.

He has kicked a goal in three of his last four games at the SCG.

Same Game Multi

Lions -13.5 / Serong 15+ Disposals / Rayner 1+ Goals / Rowbottom 8+ Tackles = $5.00

Friday AFL Tips – Blues to Grind Past Cats in $5.25 Same Game Multi Elimination Final

Dale Crotty — Fri, 04 Sep 2026 00:46:08 +0000

Our best bet for Friday’s AFL Elimination Final between Geelong and Carlton is the Under 169.5 Total Points / Mannagh 15+ Disposals / Dempsey 1+ Goals / Cerra 20+ Disposals Same Game Multi at $5.25, with Carlton going unders in 11 of their last 15 games under Fraser and 20 of their last 22 at the MCG failing to cover the total points line.

We get a classic on Friday night between the Cats and Blues in an Elimination Final. Can Carlton produce another win under Fraser?

Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues

The Blues have a great recent record against the Cats, winning four of the last five, but we know what Geelong is capable of in September.

Can Josh Fraser continue his miraculous run, or will Chris Scott’s men be too good?

Leg 1 – Under 169.5 Total Points

Looks like it might rain a bit Friday night in Melbourne, which leads us into the unders.

Another major factor is Carlton under Josh Fraser. Since he took over from Voss, the Blues have gone unders in 11 of those 15 games.

Carlton are a big MCG unders team and have been for a long time. Their last six at the ‘G, all under Fraser, have gone unders, while 20 of their last 22 games at the ground dating back to 2024 have failed to cover the total points line.

Leg 2 – Shaun Mannagh 15+ Disposals

Max Holmes does return for the Cats, but I think he’ll slot into half-back in his first game back for a while.

As a result, we could continue to see Shaun Mannagh’s midfield time increase. Mannagh attended 70% of centre bounces in Round 24 and 36% the week prior, having 33 and 20 disposals respectively.

He had 17 disposals last time he played the Blues in Round 12.

Leg 3 – Adam Cerra 20+ Disposals

The Blues under Fraser play a very similar offensive style to the Lions, where they rely on short kicking and changing angles, and with Nic Newman out, Adam Cerra has been vital down back for Carlton.

In Cerra’s last nine games, he’s hit 20+ disposals in eight of them, with the only miss being when he got injured early against the Hawks.

He averages 23 disposals in the last five games without Newman.

Leg 4 – Ollie Dempsey 1+ Goals

Has played well against the Blues in recent times, and also plays well at the MCG.

Ollie Dempsey has kicked five goals in his last three games against Carlton, including two goals in his last two.

At the ‘G, Dempsey has kicked at least one goal in 16 of his last 18 games at the ground, kicking 2+ in nine of those 18 games.

Same Game Multi

Under 169.5 Total Points / Mannagh 15+ Disposals / Dempsey 1+ Goals / Cerra 20+ Disposals = $5.25

Thursday AFL Tips – Dockers to Stay Perfect at Home in $5.50 Same Game Multi

Dale Crotty — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 23:12:53 +0000

Our best bet for Thursday’s AFL Qualifying Final between Fremantle and Hawthorn is the Fremantle 1-39 / Gunston 2+ Goals / Frederick 1+ Goals / Ward 20+ Disposals Same Game Multi at $5.50, with the Dockers 12-0 at Optus Stadium this season and Josh Ward hitting 20+ disposals in 16 of his last 17 games.

The minor premiers kick off our Qualifying Finals, when the Dockers look to make it 13 from 13 at Optus Stadium this season when they host the Hawks.

Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks

The Dockers return to their fortress at Optus Stadium, and a win against the Hawks here would lock in a home Preliminary Final.

It’s been close between the Dockers and Hawks in recent times, but Fremantle have come out on top in their last three meetings.

With Amiss, Reid, Chapman and Switkowski returning, will they once again defend their home ground?

Leg 1 – Fremantle 1-39

The Dockers have dominated at Optus Stadium this season, with a 12-0 record, including a coverage rate of 75%.

Although taking the line is tempting, the 1-39 appears to be better value. They’ve played six of the top-eight teams at Optus Stadium this season, and the coverage rate is just 50% against those teams despite going 6-0. All six games were decided in the 1-39 bracket, including their 15-point win over the Hawks during the season.

Despite a strong win-loss record for the Hawks this season, they’ve got the second worst coverage rate in the league, and in their two games as underdogs this season they’ve lost both. I think the Fremantle preparation will be too much for Hawthorn.

Leg 2 – Jack Gunston 2+ Goals

I think it might be the biggest deficiency in Fremantle’s lineup, and Luke Ryan got horribly exposed by Gunston when they met earlier in the year.

Gunston ended up with six goals and was way too good for both Ryan and Brennan Cox, the latter not an option on Thursday night.

He has kicked 2+ goals in 14 of his 17 games this season, and 3+ is still going at a 71% strike rate.

Leg 3 – Michael Frederick 1+ Goals

The Hawks concede plenty of ball to high half forwards, so I think Michael Frederick will get his opportunities.

You can make a case that Michael Frederick played the best game of his career last time he played Hawthorn, with a career-high 19 disposals to go with three goals.

He has kicked at least one goal in 12 of his 18 games this season, and at home he’s 7 from 9.

Leg 4 – Josh Ward 20+ Disposals

Has consistently found footy for the Hawks this season.

Josh Ward has hit 20+ disposals in 19 of his 23 games this season, but it’s his recent form which has been most encouraging, hitting this mark in 16 of his last 17 games.

During this stretch he’s averaged 23.5 disposals, while from Round 13 onwards that average jumps up to 24.3. Should be busy in this Qualifying Final once again.

Same Game Multi

Fremantle 1-39 / Gunston 2+ Goals / Frederick 1+ Goals / Ward 20+ Disposals = $5.50

Saturday AFL Tips – Blues to Advance in $5.10 Same Game Multi Wildcard Clash

Dale Crotty — Fri, 28 Aug 2026 01:58:12 +0000

Our best bet for Saturday’s AFL Wildcard clash between the Melbourne Demons and Carlton Blues is the Under 174.5 Total Points / Walsh 25+ Disposals / McKay 2+ Goals / Pickett 20+ Disposals Same Game Multi at $5.10, with all nine of their last nine meetings going under the total points and Carlton’s defensive profile producing unders in ten of their last 14 games under Josh Fraser.

It could be a costly Round 24 slip-up by the Demons, who now face the red-hot Blues in the final wildcard game.

Melbourne Demons vs Carlton Blues

Two first-year coaching revelations will meet in the wildcard game, as they look to advance to the top-eight.

Both teams have been in great form despite Melbourne’s slip-up last week, but injuries late in the season could cost the Demons with Jake Lever and Matthew Jefferson on the sidelines, joining the suspended Jacob Van Rooyen.

Despite finishing tenth, Carlton enter this as favourites. Can they continue their incredible run under Fraser, or does Steven King have another surprise in store?

Leg 1 – Under 174.5 Total Points

Although I don’t like taking unders in Melbourne games, I think this will be played in a different manner.

Since Josh Fraser took over at Carlton, their defensive profile has completely changed, resulting in ten of their last 14 games going under the total points, including all five at the MCG.

The last nine times Carlton and Melbourne have met, all nine games have gone under the total points, averaging 140.6 total points. I don’t expect the total points to be this low, but still under the line of 174.5.

Leg 2 – Harry McKay 2+ Goals

The Demons look bare down back without Jake Lever, and key forwards have kicked multiple goals against them frequently over the last ten weeks.

Over the last three weeks, Naughton, Georgiades, Amiss, Voss and Treacy have combined for 17 goals against Melbourne’s key defenders, and Harry McKay has been in solid form of late.

McKay has kicked 2+ goals in each of his last four weeks leading into this wildcard round, and should get plenty of opportunities again.

Leg 3 – Sam Walsh 25+ Disposals

Has had an under the radar season for the Blues in 2026.

Sam Walsh is averaging 28.5 disposals per game, and has recorded 25+ disposals in 19 of his 23 games this season.

Walsh had 31 disposals when he faced the Demons in Round 3, and enters this hitting 25+ disposals in his last seven.

Leg 4 – Kysaiah Pickett 20+ Disposals

Had a huge game against the Blues earlier in the season, finishing with 33 disposals and a goal.

From their meeting in Round 3 onwards, Pickett has averaged 23.2 disposals per game and hit 20+ disposals in 15 of the 21 games.

Recent form has been good from Kozzy, hitting 20+ disposals in nine of his last 11 games.

Same Game Multi

Under 174.5 Total Points / Walsh 25+ Disposals / McKay 2+ Goals / Pickett 20+ Disposals = $5.10

Friday AFL Tips – Wildcards Kick Off With $4.20 Same Game Multi on Dogs vs Pies

Dale Crotty — Fri, 28 Aug 2026 01:51:51 +0000

Our best bet for Friday’s AFL Wildcard clash between the Western Bulldogs and Collingwood Magpies is the Under 169.5 Total Points / Dale 25+ Disposals / Frampton 4+ Marks / Allan 15+ Disposals Same Game Multi at $4.20, with the Bulldogs featuring in the lowest scoring games of any team from Round 15 onwards and Bailey Dale averaging 29.2 disposals over his last 13 games.

The first wildcard game in AFL history on Friday night between the Bulldogs and Magpies. Who will advance to the top-eight?

Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood Magpies

The Dogs and Pies finished eighth and ninth respectively, and that’s reflected in the market at $1.90 apiece.

Although it might be tough to find the winner, I do expect this contest to be a grind, with the total points looking slightly high for an elimination final.

Leg 1 – Under 169.5 Total Points

With this being an elimination final, I think we’ll see an extremely defensive grind between the two teams.

Although the Bulldogs game went overs last week, this was against a Melbourne lineup that had featured in the highest scoring games over the past eight weeks.

The Western Bulldogs have featured in the most unders games of any team this season, with just a 30% overs coverage rate, and from Round 15 the Dogs have played in the lowest scoring games in the competition, with an average of just 155.3 total points.

Although they’ve only played three games at the MCG since 2019, all three went under the total points, and I expect a similar result once again.

Leg 2 – Bailey Dale 25+ Disposals

Returned just last week and made a huge difference for the Bulldogs, and from Round 6 onwards Bailey Dale has played extremely well.

Dale averages 29.2 disposals from this 13-game stretch, hitting 25+ disposals in 12 of those.

When they played Collingwood in Round 12, Dale finished with 27 disposals, and in his last five games against the Pies he’s hit 25+.

Leg 3 – Billy Frampton 4+ Marks

The Bulldogs concede the most marks to defenders in the competition this season, so expect Billy Frampton to take a few marks as both an interceptor and a link-man switching in back half.

Frampton averages 5.3 marks per game from Round 5 onwards, hitting 4+ marks in 15 of the last 19 games.

He had four against the Bulldogs in Round 12 and should see even more this time around.

Leg 4 – Ed Allan 15+ Disposals

Full-time midfielder since Round 13 in a defensive role for the Magpies, and will be even more important on Friday night with no Scott Pendlebury.

Since entering the Collingwood midfield on a full-time basis, Allan is averaging 19.8 disposals while hitting 15+ disposals on all 11 occasions.

15+ is a nice kicker for the Same Game Multi, but even 20+ disposals for Allan is worth considering, hitting this mark in his last three games.

Same Game Multi

Under 169.5 Total Points / Dale 25+ Disposals / Frampton 4+ Marks / Allan 15+ Disposals = $4.20

Saturday AFL Tips – Smith and Rankine Headline $4.50 Multi Across Four Games

Dale Crotty — Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:53:27 +0000

Our best bet across Saturday’s AFL action is the Demons vs Bulldogs Over 183.5 Points / Smith 30+ Disposals / Rankine 25+ Disposals / Dudley 1+ Goals Multi at $4.50, with eight of the last nine games between Melbourne and the Bulldogs going over and Bailey Smith averaging 32.3 disposals per game this season.

Although the ten teams in the finals are locked in, it still shapes as a big Saturday of footy with the majority of the top-ten shaped from the outcomes of these games.

Carlton Blues vs Fremantle Dockers

Leg 1 – Isaiah Dudley 1+ Goals

Big game by Isaiah Dudley against the Crows last week kicking three goals, and the small forward has been in good touch for the Dockers.

Dudley has kicked eight goals from his last five games, including multiple goals in his last two, and he’s been consistent all season.

From his 22 games in 2026, Dudley has kicked at least one goal in 18 of those games, going at an 82% conversion rate.

Melbourne Demons vs Western Bulldogs

Leg 2 – Over 183.5 Total Points

Melbourne is one of the biggest overs teams this season, while the Dogs are the complete opposite. But the way the Demons play tends to skew these strong unders teams, as we saw last week when they smashed the Power.

At the MCG this season, 73% of Melbourne’s 11 games have gone over the total points line, and in recent times their scoring is high. Six of their last seven games have gone overs with an average total points of 200.3, with the Demons playing in the highest scoring games over this stretch.

Eight of the last nine games between these two teams have gone over the total points, and although it went under earlier this year the total points did land on 183. We think we’ll see it push 200 on this occasion.

Geelong Cats vs Richmond Tigers

Leg 3 – Bailey Smith 30+ Disposals

Did we see what Hugo Garcia, Jack Macrae and Max Hall did against this Richmond midfield last week? Or what about Rankine and Dawson the week prior? We can even look back another week to see Harley Reid have 34 against Richmond.

Bailey Smith could have 30 disposals against this Tigers outfit before we hit three-quarter time.

Averaging 32.3 disposals per game, Smith has hit 30+ disposals in 16 of his 21 games this season, while recording 34 disposals against Richmond the last time he played them last year.

Adelaide Crows vs GWS Giants

Leg 4 – Izak Rankine 25+ Disposals

He is absolutely airborne lately and I don’t see the Giants slowing him down.

From his last seven games, Rankine is averaging 29.7 disposals per game, hitting 25+ disposals in six of those games.

Prolific ball winners have played well against the Giants recently. Matt Rowell had 40 in Round 22, Errol Gulden 41 and Chad Warner 32 in Round 20, while three Cats had 30+ disposals in Round 18. Rankine is primed for another big one.

Multi

Demons vs Bulldogs Over 183.5 Points / Smith 30+ Disposals / Rankine 25+ Disposals / Dudley 1+ Goals = $4.50

Friday AFL Tips – Lions to Lock Away Third Spot in $4.90 Same Game Multi

Dale Crotty — Thu, 20 Aug 2026 23:45:34 +0000

Our best bet for Friday’s AFL clash between Collingwood and Brisbane is the Brisbane / Anderson 1+ Goals / Zorko 25+ Disposals / West 1+ Goals Same Game Multi at $4.90, with the Lions having significantly more to play for in third-spot calculations and Zorko hitting 25+ disposals in four of his last five games.

Plenty of talk about Collingwood resting key players during the week, but Craig McRae has put that to bed and we’ll see an exciting matchup when they face the Lions.

Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions

Third spot has been highly discussed this week, and the Lions have a huge opportunity to cement that position and just about lock away a home preliminary final.

It won’t be easy against a Collingwood outfit that thrives as underdogs, but the Lions have a lot more to play for when they meet at the MCG in Friday night football.

Leg 1 – Brisbane

Although Collingwood have opted not to rest anyone, bringing Jeremy Howe back in, the Lions have too much to play for in this to let it slip.

Off the back of the incident involving the Swans, third position has become vitally important with three teams in the mix and the final standings coming down to percentage.

The Lions currently edge Hawthorn, but the Hawks will have the equation mapped out for them in the last game of the round against the Eagles.

Leg 2 – Angus Anderson 1+ Goals

Continues to spend the majority of his time up forward, and the first-year player’s conversion rate has been strong all season.

Angus Anderson has kicked a goal in 12 of his 15 games this season, an 80% conversion rate.

Considering how consistent Anderson has been as a goalkicker this year, we continue to get a nice price for 1+.

Leg 3 – Charlie West 1+ Goals

The opposite of Anderson. Charlie West hasn’t been consistent at all, but he showed enough against the Hawks to find his way into our Same Game Multi.

West kicked two goals last week, and he does get a nice look at this Brisbane back-six.

The Lions have been the second easiest team this season for key forwards to kick goals against, and even though they’ve been winning over the last ten weeks, key forwards continue to get hold of them.

Leg 4 – Dayne Zorko 25+ Disposals

Five games under the belt now since returning from injury, and although he had a quiet one against the Eagles, Dayne Zorko has looked more than comfortable in the four other games.

Zorko has hit 25+ disposals in four of those five, and has hit 30+ in two of them.

Collingwood do concede disposals to designated kickers from back half this season, and Zorko has hit 25+ disposals in his last two games against the Pies.

Same Game Multi

Brisbane / Anderson 1+ Goals / Zorko 25+ Disposals / West 1+ Goals = $4.90

Thursday AFL Tips – Saints Celebrate Hill in Style in $4.40 Same Game Multi

Dale Crotty — Wed, 19 Aug 2026 23:27:56 +0000

Our best bet for Thursday’s AFL Round 24 clash between St Kilda and Gold Coast is the St Kilda / Butler 1+ Goals / Rioli 20+ Disposals / Long 1+ Goals Same Game Multi at $4.40, with the Saints 9-1 against teams below them on the ladder this season and Gold Coast winning just once from ten games as underdogs in 2026.

What can we expect in the Round 24 clash this Thursday night between the Saints and Suns, with both teams out of finals calculations?

St Kilda Saints vs Gold Coast Suns

Bradley Hill plays his 300th game, while potentially in career-best form, in front of the St Kilda fans at Marvel in their last game of the season.

With both teams out of finals contention, there’s not much to play for, but the Saints are looking to build momentum into a vital 2027 campaign, and if they were to win 11 games this season it wouldn’t be deemed a complete disaster despite their off-season recruitment spree.

Leg 1 – St Kilda

Not much for either team to play for, but more for the Saints.

It’s Bradley Hill’s 300th game so the team will be determined to finish the season with a win, while the St Kilda improvement narrative has been a hot topic most of the year. A win would push their wins to 11 in 2026, two up on last year.

The Suns have been extremely poor as underdogs this season, with the worst underdog coverage and win rate of all teams that have been underdogs on at least five occasions in 2026. Gold Coast have won just once as underdogs from ten games as outsiders, which was also the only game in which they covered the line.

The Saints are 9-1 against teams below them on the ladder this season and should be far too strong at Marvel.

Leg 2 – Dan Butler 1+ Goals

The Suns have struggled against small forwards all season, and although Liam Ryan returns for the Saints I don’t think it will slow down Dan Butler.

The former Tiger was electric last week against his old team, finishing with two goals from 21 disposals while laying nine tackles.

It hasn’t been a great season for Butler, but off the back of last week’s performance against this matchup, confidence should be high.

Leg 3 – Daniel Rioli 20+ Disposals

Ball users from defensive half are generally the high-disposal players against St Kilda this season, and we saw this from Daniel Rioli against the Saints back in Round 9.

Rioli had a season-high 28 disposals against St Kilda in this role, and has re-found some form over the last two weeks against Brisbane and GWS, recording 20+ disposals in both games.

We saw Retschko as Richmond’s second highest disposal winner in a similar role last week, while the week prior when the Saints faced Carlton we saw Florent, Cerra, Haynes and Wilson all record 20+ disposals.

Leg 4 – Ben Long 1+ Goals

27 goals for Ben Long this season before he comes up against his old team.

The former Saint has kicked at least one goal in 14 of his 20 games this season, including 1+ in eight of his last 11.

Although he didn’t kick a goal against St Kilda earlier in the season, he did kick three against them last year in the last occasion they met at Marvel.

Same Game Multi

St Kilda / Butler 1+ Goals / Rioli 20+ Disposals / Long 1+ Goals = $4.40

Sunday AFL Tips – Blues to Grind Out Win in $4.60 Same Game Multi

Dale Crotty — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 06:21:17 +0000

Our best bet for Sunday’s AFL Round 23 clash between the Western Bulldogs and Carlton Blues is the Under 173.5 Total Points / Freijah 15+ Disposals / Cerra 20+ Disposals / Cowan 15+ Disposals Same Game Multi at $4.60, with the Bulldogs missing Bontempelli, English, Darcy and Dale and Carlton featuring in unders in nine of their 12 games under Josh Fraser.

The Bulldogs enter Round 23 depleted including managing Marcus Bontempelli. Can they cause a major upset against the Blues juggernaut?

Western Bulldogs vs Carlton Blues

The Western Bulldogs enter Round 23 without two of their most important players in Tim English and Marcus Bontempelli, who join Sam Darcy and Bailey Dale on the sidelines.

As a result, the Blues are red-hot favourites, but it’s a position they’ve previously struggled to be in, with this now emerging as a danger game.

A Blues win will lock them into the wildcard round. Can Carlton hold their nerve?

Leg 1 – Under 173.5 Total Points

They’ve built a reputation as featuring in high scoring games in recent times, but it’s been quite the contrary in 2026 for the Western Bulldogs.

The Bulldogs have the lowest overs coverage rate in the AFL this season, with only six of their 21 games going over, including just one of their last seven.

As for Carlton, since Josh Fraser took the helm they’ve been a big unders team, with nine of their 12 games going under the total points.

Expect the Blues to put the stranglehold on a team that’s scored 80+ just three times from their last nine games.

Leg 2 – Joel Freijah 15+ Disposals

There’s no real pattern or consistency from Bevo with his midfield mix, but we did see Joel Freijah attend 61% of centre bounces last week, and without Bontempelli we should see him around that mark again, if not greater.

Freijah had 17 disposals last week against North Melbourne, and has hit 15+ disposals in his last three games, despite overall having a quiet 2026.

With the extra run around the ball though, it’s hard not to see Freijah hit 15 in this.

Leg 3 – Adam Cerra 20+ Disposals

Defenders fill up against the Bulldogs, and Adam Cerra has moved behind the ball with Nic Newman out, looking like a completely different player.

Cerra was injured early against the Pies a few weeks back, but if we remove that game from the sample, from Round 17 onwards Cerra has averaged 22.6 disposals per game hitting 20+ in all five games.

He has been using the ball well from half back, and will split responsibilities with Ollie Florent as the designated kicker.

Leg 4 – Lachlan Cowan 15+ Disposals

Another defender in Carlton’s back-six that should get a fair bit of ball against the Bulldogs.

Cowan had 20 disposals when he played the Bulldogs earlier this season, and has been averaging 16.1 disposals per game under Josh Fraser.

He has hit 15+ disposals in three of his last four games, and we think we’ll see Cowan push 20 once again.

Same Game Multi

Under 173.5 Total Points / Freijah 15+ Disposals / Cerra 20+ Disposals / Cowan 15+ Disposals = $4.60