Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns

Leg 1 – Hawthorn

They weren’t at their best last week against Port Adelaide, but Hawthorn’s record at UTAS Stadium is elite.

The Hawks have won their last 10 games at the venue, despite starting favourites in just six of those. They’ve also covered the line in 11 of their last 12 there.

The return of Jack Gunston adds structure up forward, while the Suns come in out of form, failing to cover in their last three games.

Essendon Bombers vs Collingwood Magpies

Leg 2 – Archie Roberts 30+ Disposals

Roberts is finding an absurd amount of the footy right now, driven by a shift in Essendon’s ball movement.

He’s averaging 37.3 disposals across his last three games, hitting 30+ in all three.

Collingwood’s defensive system allows opposition half-backs to accumulate. Florent and Newman found plenty last week, while Clark and Ryan did the same the week prior, even in poor conditions.

Port Adelaide Power vs Geelong Cats

Leg 3 – Jack Bowes 1+ Goals

Bowes plays an important role for Geelong, especially with Gryan Miers out as that high half-forward link.

He went goalless last week but had three behinds and easily could have converted one.

He kicked three goals across the two games prior, and finished 2025 with 16 goals, close to a goal per game.

Fremantle Dockers vs Carlton Blues

Leg 4 – Caleb Serong 25+ Disposals

This shapes as a big spot for Serong, who is due for a breakout game.

He’s averaging 26.3 disposals this season and has finished on 24 in each of his last two games after posting 32 the week prior.

Carlton remain without George Hewett, and based on their midfield setup last week, they don’t have a clear matchup for Serong.

Same Game Multi

Hawthorn / Roberts 30+ Disposals / Bowes 1+ Goals / Serong 25+ Disposals = $5.20

Richmond Tigers vs Melbourne Demons

The winless Tigers have their work cut out in this Anzac Eve clash against a Melbourne side that has been a revelation under Steven King.

Richmond has been hit hard by injuries, with Tim Taranto sidelined alongside several key contributors.

Can they keep this competitive?

Leg 1 – Melbourne 40+

It’s hard to see Richmond staying with Melbourne here. The Tigers were competitive in Round 1 against Carlton, but since then their five losses have all been by 7+ goals, with an average losing margin of 60.2 points.

Melbourne thrives at the MCG, covering the line in nine of their last 11 at the ground, including all four games this season where they remain undefeated at the ‘G.

The return of Tom Lynch gives Richmond a focal point up forward, but with Taranto, Banks and Rioli all out, supply could be a major issue.

Leg 2 – Jack Ross 20+ Disposals

Ross has been attending around 50% of centre bounces this season, and that number should rise with Taranto out.

He’s averaging 21.7 disposals per game and has hit 20+ in four of six games.

Even with Melbourne’s strong form, opposition midfielders have still found plenty of the ball, giving Ross another opportunity for a big game after 26 disposals last week.

Leg 3 – Harry Sharp 1+ Goals

It’s been a breakout season for Sharp, perfectly suited to Steven King’s system with his running power.

He’s kicked eight goals this season and has scored in every game.

Against a vulnerable Richmond defence, he should get his chances again.

Leg 4 – Koltyn Tholstrup 20+ Disposals

Tholstrup has become a key piece under King, starting the season as a tagger before settling into a role across half-back.

He’s recorded 20+ disposals in each of the last two games, including 26 against Brisbane last week.

That performance featured 10 kick-ins, playing on from all of them, highlighting his growing role in Melbourne’s ball movement.

Same Game Multi

Melbourne 40+ / Ross 20+ Disposals / Sharp 1+ Goals / Tholstrup 20+ Disposals = $5.00

Western Bulldogs vs Sydney Swans

There was carnage at GMHBA Stadium last week, with Darcy, Lobb, O’Donnell and Liberatore all going down injured, while Marcus Bontempelli remains in doubt.

Although Isaac Heeney will miss for Sydney, they still enter as red-hot favourites against a heavily depleted Bulldogs outfit.

Leg 1 – Under 188.5 Total Points

There are real concerns around the Bulldogs’ ability to score here, particularly with Sam Darcy’s season-ending injury. Jordan Croft has also been left out, leaving Aaron Naughton as the primary target, and Rhylee West out of form.

Despite their reputation for high-scoring games, the Bulldogs’ last five matches have all failed to clear this line, with four of those going under.

Marvel totals are typically set higher, but only three of nine games at the venue this season have gone over. This looks another spot where the under holds value.

Leg 2 – Justin McInerney 1+ Goals

Sydney’s corridor game continues to generate scoring opportunities for their runners, and Justin McInerney is right in the mix.

He’s kicked 10 goals this season, scoring in every game and hitting 2+ in three of six.

Expect him to get forward of centre at Marvel and hit the scoreboard again.

Leg 3 – Matthew Kennedy 25+ Disposals

We saw Clayton Oliver rack up 37 disposals against Sydney last week, and Matthew Kennedy profiles similarly as an inside mid – especially with Tom Liberatore out.

Kennedy is averaging 28.2 disposals this season, hitting 25+ in five of six games.

Even if Bontempelli plays, he’s likely to spend more time forward, which should keep Kennedy’s midfield minutes high.

Leg 4 – James Rowbottom 15+ Disposals

Rowbottom’s centre bounce numbers have dipped slightly this season, but with Heeney out, the opportunity is there.

He attended 73% of CBAs when Sydney faced Hawthorn without Heeney, and a similar role is expected here.

He’s still hit 15+ disposals in five of six games this season, even with the adjusted role.

Same Game Multi

Under 188.5 Points / McInerney 1+ Goals / Kennedy 25+ Disposals / Rowbottom 15+ Disposals = $5.10

Gold Coast Suns vs Essendon Bombers

Leg 1 – Isaac Kako 1+ Goals

It’s been a solid start to the season for Isaac Kako. The Bomber has kicked four goals from four games in 2026, hitting the scoreboard in three of those.

The Suns have looked vulnerable at ground level in defence, and Papley and Rosas combined for five goals last week, while the Pickett duo and Sharp all hit the scoreboard in Melbourne’s Round 4 win.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Port Adelaide Power

Leg 2 – James Sicily 20+ Disposals

James Sicily consistently finds his way to 20+ disposals without posting massive numbers, but his reliability is key.

He’s hit 20+ in all five games this season, averaging 23.2 disposals per game.

Sicily also recorded 20+ in both games against Port last season, and with the Power struggling to use the ball efficiently inside 50, he should see plenty of it again.

Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints

Leg 3 – Adelaide -9.5

Adelaide has dominated this matchup for over a decade.

The Crows have won 14 of their last 16 against St Kilda since 2012, covering the line in 12 of their last 15 meetings.

At Adelaide Oval, they’ve won their last three against the Saints by an average of 49 points, so they should be winning this by multiple goals again.

Leg 4 – Liam Ryan 1+ Goals

While the Crows are expected to win, Liam Ryan has shown his value as a small forward for the Saints.

He’s kicked a goal in all five games this season, including three against Brisbane in Round 3.

Ryan also kicked three goals against Adelaide last season while at West Coast, and should find the scoreboard again here.

Multi

Kako 1+ Goals / Sicily 20+ Disposals / Adelaide -9.5 / Ryan 1+ Goals = $6.90

Geelong Cats vs Western Bulldogs

The Cats host the Bulldogs at GMHBA Stadium, where these two have produced some classics in recent years. Can the Dogs bounce back from a disappointing loss to Hawthorn?

Leg 1 – Western Bulldogs +10.5

The Bulldogs have a strong recent record at GMHBA, winning two of their last three at the venue dating back to 2021.

Geelong haven’t been overly convincing in night games at home either, going 6-4 from their last ten and covering the line just twice in their last 11 night games at the ground.

This looks closer than the market suggests.

Leg 2 – Oliver Henry 1+ Goals

Oliver Henry has quietly put together a strong start to the season, kicking a goal in all four games he’s played.

Despite inconsistent roles last year, he’s now kicked at least one goal in 11 of his last 12 games, showing a strong scoring floor.

Sydney Swans vs GWS Giants

The Battle of the Bridge. Sydney have won seven of the last nine, but GWS took last year’s clash with a huge second half. Can they do it again?

Leg 3 – Under 180.5 Points

This is a big total for a night game, and recent history suggests it’s too high.

The last three meetings between these sides have gone under, while GWS’ last six night games and five of Sydney’s last seven at night have also stayed under.

Expect a controlled, pressure-heavy contest.

Leg 4 – Finn Callaghan 25+ Disposals

With James Jordan likely to go to one of Whitfield or Ash, Finn Callaghan should again find plenty of the ball.

He’s averaging 31.4 disposals this season, hitting 25+ in all five games and now in nine straight.

Multi

Western Bulldogs +10.5 / Henry 1+ Goals / Swans vs Giants Under 180.5 Points / Callaghan 25+ Disposals = $7.35

Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies

Carlton’s woes continued in Gather Round, with the Crows running away to a comfortable win to kick off Round 5, but it’s not all smooth sailing for Collingwood either.

The Magpies sit at 2-3 and are still struggling in their forward half, while Jordan De Goey and Steele Sidebottom will both miss this must-win clash.

Leg 1 – Collingwood -10.5

Collingwood has dominated Carlton for a long time, winning 12 of the last 14 meetings dating back to 2018.

The Pies have won the last four matchups, covering in all of them, including two games in 2024 where Carlton entered as favourites.

In night games between these sides, Collingwood has also held the edge, winning 11 of the last 12, covering in eight of the last nine.

Leg 2 – Nick Daicos 30+ Disposals

With George Hewett out, it’s unclear who runs with Nick Daicos, if anyone.

Daicos had 36 disposals against Carlton in their Round 17 clash last year and has started 2026 on fire, recording 30+ in all four games at an average north of 35 per game.

Leg 3 – Zac Williams 15+ Disposals

With Hewett sidelined, Zac Williams attended centre bounces for the first time since Round 0.

While he didn’t dominate possession, he still finished with 15 disposals, a mark he consistently hits. Williams has recorded 15+ in all four games this season and in 13 of his last 14.

Leg 4 – Brayden Maynard 15+ Disposals

Brayden Maynard has made a strong start to 2026, averaging over 20 disposals per game.

He has hit 15+ in all five games this season, and in 18 of his last 19 overall. He also had 21 disposals against Carlton in their last meeting.

Same Game Multi

Collingwood -10.5 / Daicos 30+ Disposals / Williams 15+ Disposals / Maynard 15+ Disposals = $5.10

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Brisbane Lions

LEG 1 – Nick Larkey 2+ Goals

Larkey has been incredibly consistent in front of goal.

He has kicked 2+ goals in all four games this season and sits third in the AFL with 14 goals.

Dating back to last year, he has now kicked 2+ in his last seven games. Even with Harris Andrews returning, key forwards have still found success against Brisbane this season.

Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons

LEG 2 – Archie Roberts 25+ Disposals

Roberts has been a ball magnet to start the season, averaging 27 disposals per game.

He has hit 25+ in his last three games, including a 37-disposal performance against the Bulldogs, while also taking a share of kick-ins.

His only miss came in Round 1 against Hawthorn, where he played just 60% game time. Since then, Brad Scott has lifted his minutes above 80%, and the numbers have followed.

Sydney Swans vs Gold Coast Suns

LEG 3 – Joel Jeffrey 20+ Disposals

With Will Powell moving into the midfield, Jeffrey’s role off half-back has expanded.

He is averaging 22.3 disposals this season, hitting 20+ in three of four games, with last week’s lower total coming in a game where overall Suns disposals were down.

If Gold Coast get the game back on their terms, Jeffrey should be heavily involved.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Western Bulldogs

LEG 4 – Hawthorn

The Hawks have had the edge over the Bulldogs under Sam Mitchell.

Hawthorn have entered as underdogs in their last four meetings and have won all four, including convincing wins by 37 points in 2024 and 22 last season.

With Tim English ruled out and Ed Richards under an injury cloud, this shapes as a great opportunity for Hawthorn to continue that trend.

Multi

Larkey 2+ Goals / Roberts 25+ Disposals / Jeffrey 20+ Disposals / Hawthorn = $7.30

Collingwood Magpies vs Fremantle Dockers

Fremantle knocked off Collingwood at the MCG last year and head in as favourites for this Friday night clash at Adelaide Oval.

The Magpies will welcome back Nick Daicos, who was sorely missed against Brisbane, while the Dockers arrive full of confidence after winning three straight.

LEG 1 – Under 173.5 Total Points

Both teams have been involved in low-scoring games this season, with Collingwood ranking third lowest and Fremantle fifth lowest for total points.

Only one of Collingwood’s four games this year has gone over, and just two of their last 13 overall. Nine of their last ten night games have gone under.

Five of the last six night meetings between these sides have also gone under, and with Collingwood’s defensive style, another low total looks likely.

LEG 2 – Nick Daicos 1+ Goals

Before missing last week, Daicos was having a strong impact on the scoreboard.

He kicked two goals against both the Giants and Crows, and while he went goalless against the Saints, he still registered two behinds.

He remains a genuine threat forward of centre.

LEG 3 – Shai Bolton 1+ Goals

Bolton has spent more time in the midfield this season but continues to hit the scoreboard.

He has kicked five goals in 2026 and has scored in five of his last six games.

He missed last time against Collingwood but still had opportunities, finishing with three behinds.

LEG 4 – Corey Wagner 15+ Disposals

Wagner could be tasked with running alongside Daicos, which should keep him around the contest.

He is averaging 18 disposals this season and has hit 15+ in his last three games.

Same Game Multi

Under 173.5 Total Points / Daicos 1+ Goals / Wagner 15+ Disposals / Bolton 1+ Goals = $6.25

Adelaide Crows vs Carlton Blues

After finishing on top of the ladder at the end of the 2025 home and away season, Adelaide’s horror finals run has spilled into 2026.

They sit 1-3 to start the year, although the draw hasn’t been kind, facing Collingwood, Geelong, Western Bulldogs and Fremantle.

As for Carlton, it’s been a nightmare start and it gets worse with Jacob Weitering sidelined for this clash.

LEG 1 – Under 170.5 Total Points

Adelaide games have been among the lowest scoring in the competition this season, averaging just 159 total points, with all four games going under.

Eight of the Crows’ last ten at Adelaide Oval have gone under, and Carlton trends the same way.

Sixteen of the Blues’ last 19 night games have gone under, averaging 154 total points. Expect this to land in a similar range.

LEG 2 – Wayne Milera 20+ Disposals

Milera has taken on the designated kicking role across half-back for Adelaide.

Despite only hitting 20+ disposals twice this season, he is averaging 24.8 per game, which explains the value here.

He had 19 touches against both the Bulldogs and Cats, but this matchup shapes better. Caleb Daniel found plenty of the ball against Carlton last week, and Milera should play a similar role.

LEG 3 – Zac Taylor 1+ Goals

Taylor is an important forward presence for the Crows, especially with Josh Rachele spending more time in the midfield.

He kicked three goals against Geelong and followed up with another against Fremantle last week.

Expect him to be involved again here.

LEG 4 – Elijah Hollands 15+ Disposals

Hollands has been one of Carlton’s few bright spots to start 2026.

He is averaging 19 disposals per game and has hit 15+ in three of four matches, including a 25-disposal game against Melbourne.

Same Game Multi

Under 170.5 Total Points / Milera 20+ Disposals / Hollands 15+ Disposals / Taylor 1+ Goals = $6.00

Richmond Tigers vs Port Adelaide Power

The Tigers get a great opportunity to record their first win of the season against a Port Adelaide side that has already dropped games to both North Melbourne and West Coast.

LEG 1 – Under 179.5 Total Points

Richmond have played a lot of football at the MCG under Adem Yze and a clear scoring trend is emerging.

In Richmond’s last 16 games at the MCG, only two have gone over the total points line, with an average total score of just 150.2 across those games.

Both Richmond games at the MCG this season have gone under, while two of Port Adelaide’s three games in 2026 have also gone under the total.

LEG 2 – Liam Fawcett 1+ Goals

Fawcett has only played one AFL game so far, which happened to be against Port Adelaide last season where he kicked a goal.

He has been getting plenty of opportunities in the VFL this season, kicking 2.4 in Round 1 and 1.3 last week, so the opportunities are clearly there.

With no Tom Lynch or Harry Armstrong for Richmond, he should spend plenty of time inside forward 50.

West Coast Eagles vs Sydney Swans

West Coast’s young side has been the surprise story early in the season, already doubling their 2025 win total. But this is a much tougher test against Sydney, who welcome back Isaac Heeney.

LEG 3 – Sydney Swans -30.5

It’s harsh to write off West Coast after two big wins, but the quality of opposition rises significantly here against the Swans.

Sydney have a strong record at Optus Stadium dating back to 2018, winning eight of their 11 games there against West Coast and Fremantle, and covering the line in nine of those games.

With Isaac Heeney returning, this looks a tough matchup for the Eagles.

LEG 4 – Chad Warner 1+ Goals

With Heeney returning, Chad Warner should spend more time forward again rather than attending centre bounces.

In the first two rounds Warner attended just 40% of centre bounces, but that jumped to 72% when Heeney and Gulden were both out.

Warner has kicked at least one goal in two of his three games this season and should get opportunities here.

Multi

Richmond vs Port Adelaide Under 179.5 Total Points / Fawcett 1+ Goals / Swans -30.5 / Chad Warner 1+ Goals = $7.20