Western Bulldogs vs GWS Giants

Jesse Hogan 2+ Goals

The Bulldogs backline shapes as their Achilles heel, and with Jesse Hogan fit and firing to begin the 2026 season he looms as a major threat.

Hogan kicked three goals last week against the Hawks and followed that up with five goals in the State of Origin clash representing Western Australia.

He has also enjoyed this matchup across his career. The last time these sides met Hogan exited early with a foot injury, but in the six previous meetings he had kicked 2+ goals each time.

Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers

Murphy Reid 1+ Goals

It was 12 months ago when Murphy Reid travelled down to the Cattery for his AFL debut and kicked four goals in seven minutes.

There has been talk of Reid spending more time through the midfield this season, but that should only be in short bursts with Brayshaw and Serong doing most of the inside work and Jackson also rotating through.

Reid kicked a goal in 75% of his games last season and finished the year strongly with 1+ goals in his final six matches.

Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions

Justin McInerney 1+ Goals

McInerney kicked three goals last week in a best-on-ground performance for the Swans and could easily hit the scoreboard again here.

Bailey Williams managed 1.4 playing as a winger against Brisbane last week and realistically should have kicked three goals.

McInerney finished 2025 strongly with at least one goal in five of his final eight games and also hit the scoreboard in the Swans’ Community Series match.

Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows

Under 172.5 Total Points

Collingwood featured in the only Round 0 game that went under the total points, and another tight, defensive contest looks likely here.

The Magpies and Crows have played a number of close battles over the past four years, with nine of their last 11 meetings decided by 10 points or fewer.

As a result, the pressure has been high and scoring low. Nine of their last 10 matchups have gone under the total points line.

Multi

Hogan 2+ Goals / Reid 1+ Goals / McInerney 1+ Goals / Collingwood vs Adelaide Under 172.5 Total Points = $7.93

Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks

These two clubs already have plenty of history, and the Zach Merrett off-season saga has added even more spice to this clash.

The Hawks were underwhelming in Round 0 against a depleted Giants side, while Essendon will field something close to its strongest 23 for the first time since Round 9 last year.

That said, the Bombers remain one of the youngest and least experienced sides in the competition and will debut three players in their opening match of the season, making an upset unlikely.

LEG 1 – Over 183.5 Total Points

Essendon often starts seasons strongly before fading as the year progresses, and recent Round 1 meetings between these sides have been high scoring.

The Bombers and Hawks have met in Round 1 four times since 2021 and all four games have gone over the total, averaging 189.5 points. The last three meetings have comfortably cleared this line.

Overall, 11 of their last 13 matchups have gone over, and with Hawthorn conceding 122 points last week another high scoring contest looks likely.

LEG 2 – Sam Butler 1+ Goals

Butler kicked two goals in last week’s loss to the Giants after booting 2.2 in the Community Series clash with the Bulldogs.

With Nick Watson spending more time through the midfield and Connor Macdonald also rotating through the centre, Butler should lock down the small forward role this season.

LEG 3 – Sam Durham 20+ Disposals

Based on the Community Series game against St Kilda, Essendon’s primary midfield rotation looks set to feature Parish, Caldwell and Durham.

Durham recorded 20 disposals in that game and has averaged 21 disposals across the past two seasons.

He cleared 20+ disposals in 14 of his 20 games last season, with the few misses largely due to injury.

LEG 4 – Andrew McGrath 20+ Disposals

McGrath will act as a key link player in defence for Essendon in his first season as captain.

He recorded 20+ disposals in 13 of his final 16 games in 2025, including the last eight matches of the season.

The addition of Jayden Nguyen should free McGrath from more defensive responsibility and allow him to play that distributor role more consistently.

Same Game Multi

Over 183.5 Total Points / Butler 1+ Goals / Durham 20+ Disposals / McGrath 20+ Disposals = $5.25

Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers

At half-time last week you could make the case that a new-look Carlton was ready to surge up the ladder in 2026, but Sydney’s second-half avalanche has quickly raised fresh doubts.

As for Richmond, we haven’t seen much of them in the pre-season after their Community Series match lasted just one half due to lightning.

Last year produced one of the upsets of the season when the Tigers came from 41 points down to storm past the Blues. Can lightning strike twice for Richmond?

LEG 1 – Under 173.5 Total Points

High scoring was the trend in Round 0, but both Carlton and Richmond have recently been involved in plenty of lower scoring night games.

Only three of Carlton’s last 18 night matches have gone over the total points line, while just three of Richmond’s last 11 night games have gone over.

When these sides met in Round 1 last season the total also stayed under, and with wet and cold conditions forecast in Melbourne this could buck the Round 0 scoring trend.

LEG 2 – Sam Lalor 1+ Goals

Lalor kicked at least one goal in each of his 11 appearances last season, including his memorable debut against the Blues where he helped spark Richmond’s comeback win.

He impressed in the pre-season and should spend most of his time forward while also rotating through the midfield.

LEG 3 – Sam Banks 20+ Disposals

Late in the 2025 season Sam Banks cemented his role as Richmond’s designated kicker and runner out of defence.

He averaged 23.3 disposals across his final 15 games last year, clearing 20+ in 11 of those matches.

Banks also collected 21 disposals in last year’s Round 1 clash against Carlton despite being far less established at the time.

Richmond’s backline saw plenty of the ball in the shortened Community Series clash against Melbourne, with Banks already racking up 14 disposals before the game was abandoned due to lightning.

LEG 4 – Sam Walsh 25+ Disposals

Walsh shapes as the perfect multi kicker.

He has moved into a centre-bounce midfield role this season and was one of the few bright spots in Carlton’s Round 0 loss.

Walsh collected 32 disposals against the Swans and has always been a ball magnet around the contest.

He averaged 26.3 disposals last season while playing more outside roles, so the positional change should suit him perfectly.

Same Game Multi

Under 173.5 Total Points / Lalor 1+ Goals / Banks 20+ Disposals / Walsh 25+ Disposals = $5.75

GWS Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks

LEG 1 – Hawthorn -13.5

The Giants are already dealing with a long injury list before the season has even begun. Tom Green, Josh Kelly, Aaron Cadman, Sam Taylor, Brent Daniels and Toby Bedford are among the names missing.

Hawthorn has won three of the last four meetings against the Giants and has covered the line in five of the last six clashes with the Orange Tsunami.

Jai Newcombe getting off at the tribunal was a huge boost for the Hawks, and they should prove too strong for this undermanned Giants outfit.

LEG 2 – Max Gruzewski 1+ Goals

This is a big opportunity for Gruzewski in the absence of Aaron Cadman.

The 2022 Pick 22 has largely been stuck in the VFL due to the Giants’ key forward depth, but he showed plenty late last season, kicking eight goals across his final four games.

He also averaged just under three goals per game in the VFL last year on his way to 43 goals.

Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs

LEG 3 – Under 166.5 Total Points

Although both teams possess plenty of firepower, night games at the Gabba often promise shootouts but deliver lower scores.

Only one of Brisbane’s last 11 night matches at the Gabba has gone over the total points line. That includes just one of eight Gabba night games last season, including the last time they faced the Bulldogs.

With Sam Darcy in doubt and wet weather possible, the unders looks the play again.

LEG 4 – Darcy Wilmot 20+ Disposals

Darcy Wilmot finished the 2025 season in excellent form and looks primed for a breakout year.

He recorded 20+ disposals in six of his final seven games last season, with the only miss a 17-disposal effort in the Grand Final.

Wilmot also collected 27 disposals in last week’s Community Series win over the Suns and shapes as a genuine All Australian contender in 2026.

Multi

Hawthorn -13.5 / Gruzewski 1+ Goals / Lions vs Bulldogs Under 166.5 Total Points / Wilmot 20+ Disposals = $7.20

Gold Coast Suns vs Geelong Cats

It’s a big opportunity for Gold Coast to set the tone for its 2026 campaign when it faces the Cats without Jeremy Cameron and Patrick Dangerfield.

Christian Petracca is a huge addition for the Suns this season and should play an important early role with Matt Rowell expected to miss time.

Can the Suns start their season with a win, or will we see another Chris Scott masterclass?

LEG 1 – Gold Coast Suns

Although Matt Rowell won’t be available, the Suns still enter this clash close to full strength at People First Stadium.

Gold Coast has won 78% of its games at the venue since the start of 2024 and won’t get a better opportunity to open the season with a victory.

Geelong is missing Jeremy Cameron and Patrick Dangerfield, which significantly weakens their forward half, while Bailey Smith and Gryan Miers both enter under injury clouds.

LEG 2 – Christian Petracca 25+ Disposals

While Petracca may spend more time forward this season, Rowell’s absence should see him take on a larger midfield role early.

He recorded 24 disposals in last week’s Community Series hit-out against Brisbane, leading the Suns in touches.

With O’Connor and Mullin named for Geelong, one of them may run with Noah Anderson, which could allow Petracca to dominate the midfield ball.

LEG 3 – Shaun Mannagh 1+ Goals

Mannagh will be an important piece of Geelong’s forward structure and should hit the scoreboard.

He kicked a goal in 68% of games last season and finished 2025 strongly, kicking goals in five of his final six matches.

After finishing with 31 goals in 2025, Mannagh becomes even more important to the Cats’ attack without Cameron and Dangerfield.

LEG 4 – Leo Lombard 1+ Goals

Leo Lombard was one of the Suns’ bright spots during the pre-season.

The highly rated 2024 draft pick should see plenty of opportunity in 2026 following the departures of Ben Ainsworth and Malcolm Rosas, along with Sam Flanders shifting roles.

Lombard kicked three goals against Brisbane in the Community Series and should again be heavily involved inside the Suns’ forward 50.

Same Game Multi

Gold Coast / Mannagh 1+ Goals / Petracca 25+ Disposals / Lombard 1+ Goals = $4.80

Sydney Swans vs Carlton Blues

The Swans were one of the disappointments of the 2025 season, but they open 2026 with a near full-strength lineup when they host Carlton at the SCG. Their forward line also features the huge off-season addition of former Blue Charlie Curnow.

What will the star key forward produce against his old club in his first game in the red and white?

Carlton enters the season with plenty of optimism. A new game style and some fresh faces headline the changes, including young gun Jagga Smith making his AFL debut after missing the entire 2025 season.

LEG 1 – Sydney Swans 1-39

Despite Carlton showing promising signs in the pre-season with a quicker style of play against Brisbane and Geelong, the reality is they bring seven new players into their side for Round 1.

Sydney has also impressed during the pre-season after an injury-interrupted 2025 campaign, and the addition of Charlie Curnow strengthens their attack.

The Swans have won five of the last six meetings against Carlton at the SCG, with four of those victories coming by 1–39 points. Carlton should be more competitive this season, but Sydney still looks the stronger side.

LEG 2 – Ashton Moir 1+ Goals

Ashton Moir appears to have locked down a role in Carlton’s forward line after finishing the 2025 season strongly.

He kicked at least one goal in five of his last six games last year and added another in the pre-season clash against Geelong.

With Curnow departing in the off-season, Moir shapes as an important piece of Carlton’s forward setup.

LEG 3 – Nick Blakey 20+ Disposals

The renewed focus on the stand rule could see elite runners and ball-users off half-back become even more influential.

Nick Blakey’s role expanded significantly in the second half of 2025, recording 20+ disposals in 10 of his last 11 matches.

He collected 26 disposals in last week’s Community Series hit-out against the Giants and looks set to be heavily involved again in 2026.

LEG 4 – Jagga Smith 20+ Disposals

There’s plenty of hype around Jagga Smith, but the young midfielder has already shown he can find the football.

Smith finished with 37 disposals in Carlton’s Community Series clash against Geelong. While replicating that number will be difficult, he was a prolific ball-winner as a junior and also impressed at VFL level.

Playing three games for Richmond’s VFL side in 2024 as an 18-year-old, Smith recorded 24+ disposals in all three appearances.

Same Game Multi

Swans 1–39 / Moir 1+ Goals / Blakey 20+ Disposals / Smith 20+ Disposals = $5.20

The AFL Grand Final should be an absolute classic on Saturday at the MCG. The Geelong Cats will be looking to make it 2 GF wins in the last 3 years and their 11th in the history of the AFL. The Brisbane Lions are looking to go back to back and win their 5th Grand Final in Lions history. Here’s my tips for this huge Grand Final matchup.

Geelong Cats (2nd) vs Brisbane Lions (3rd)

The Cats head into the 2025 AFL Grand Final as warm favourites to lift their 2nd trophy in just 3 years. They thrashed the Swans back in 2022 and while this shouldn’t be a repeat, Geelong should be very confident. In the finals so far, they’ve already taken down the Lions 115-85 in the qualifying finals and the week off before beating Hawthorn should help them in the GF.

Last week, the Cats were slow starters against the Hawks, falling behind at quarter time 22-9. But the 2nd half was all about the Cats and Patty Dangerfield as they piled on 11 goals to 6. Dangerfield had one of the great finals, finishing with 31 touches, 3 goals and 8 clearances. Bailey Smith was also impressive with 36 touches. Cameron had 5 shots on goal, kicking 3 and Stengle also added 3 goals.

The only trouble for the Cats is the concussion to Tom Stewart, who will miss the GF as a result. But Chris Scott will have a replacement as the Cats have a lot of depth. Jack Henry also picked up an ankle injury in the win over Hawthorn but should be fine.

In the player props, there is some good value to look out for. Bailey Smith had an impressive game against the Hawks and has now got 30+ touches in 6 of his last 7. Gryan Miers also had an excellent game against the Hawks, finishing with 27 disposals. He’s nice value in the 20+ disposals markets. Another decent value bet should be Brad Close. He got 18 disposals against the Lions in Week 1 of the finals and 15 last week. Danger to get 25+ disposals is worth a shot. He got 32 last week and I can see him having another big game if Geelong get on top.

In the goal scoring markets, look out for Shaun Mannagh. He’s coming off 2 goals last week and has a total of 10 goals in his last 5. As a mature player, I think he’ll enjoy the Grand Final experience and it offers nice value. Mark Blicavs has kicked a goal in back to back finals, making him a nice choice in the anytime goal scorer markets. Also, Bailey Smith offers a nice price to kick a goal. He’s also kicked one in both finals too.

The Lions are into their 3rd Grand Final in a row and will be looking to go back to back, a bit like the mighty Lions in the early 2000s. They’ve had go the hard way after losing to the Cats in the 1st week of the finals. After that performance, they bounced back nicely at home with a crushing win over the Suns at the Gabba.

Last week, they overcame the Pies and the crowd at the MCG with a massive 100-71 result. Hugh McCluggage shook off any injury concerns with a great performance – 37 disposals, 1 goal, 8 marks and 10 clearances. Zorko also picked up 28 disposals and had 9 inside 50s. Ty Gallop stood tall with 3 straight goals in the best game of his career. Bailey, Ashcroft and Rayner also added 2 goals each.

In the disposals markets for the Lions, there is some Brissy players to back. Harris Andrews picked up the Jim Stynes medal on Monday for his community work and he’s been smashing it on the field too. He’s coming off 15 or more disposals in his last 3 finals. Josh Dunkley loves playing the Cats having 25+ touches in his last 7 against them. Also, look out for McCluggage in the 30+ disposals market. He’s got there in his last 2 games and if Brisbane win, he’ll be right up there again.

Zorko should be a safe play in the 25+ disposals markets, he’s hit that mark in 4 of his last 5 and has 32+ touches in his last 3 against Geelong. In the goal scorer markets, Kai Lohmann is someone who can go under the radar to kick multiple goals. He’s kicked 10 goals in his last 5 games and had an impressive performance in last year’s GF. Will Ashcroft gets plenty of chances to kick one, he’s got 2+ goals in 2 straight finals. McCluggage can also hit the scoreboard and should offer nice value in the anytime goal scorer markets.

Stadium Record

Geelong have won 5 of their last 6 finals at the MCG. They are also looking for a 6th straight win at the G. Brisbane are 3-1 in their last 4 finals at the MCG. They are 6-1 in their last 7 at the venue since 2024.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is square at 5-5. Geelong won the last matchup 112-74 but the Lions won 2 of 3 against them this season. In finals since 2020, the Cats are 3-1.

Best Bet

I think this is a close Grand Final, similar to the 2023 clash between the Pies and Lions. So I think the head to head is a tough one if it’s close and the total points looks a bit safer as the best bet. In the Cats last 6 finals, the Over has saluted in all 6.  Brisbane have kicked 100 pts exactly in their last 2 wins and still managed 74 in the 1st final. Geelong haven’t scored under pts since Round 18 – 8 straight games of 100+ pts.

Over 171.5 pts = $1.90

AFL Grand Final Same Game Multi – Cats v Lions

Leg #1 – Brisbane Lions +18.5

I think the Lions can keep the margin under 3 goals this time. They have the experience of playing 3 straight Grand Finals and that should help them in the key moments. They’ve also performed well at the MCG lately and will be eager to overturn the 30 pt loss against the Cats a few weeks ago. The losing QF team actually has a good record in this situation, which work into the Lions favour.

Leg #2 – Jack Martin Anytime Goalscorer

Martin is someone that can go a bit unnoticed with all the attention on Cameron and Danger. He’s coming off 5 straight games of 1 or more goals and should be able to sneak one in there again.

Leg #3 – Will Ashcroft Anytime Goalscorer

Will Ashcroft is the reigning Norm Smith medalist and shows up in the big games. So I think he’ll hit the scoreboard in the GF. He’s kicked 4 goals in his last 2 games and has hit the anytime goalscorer in both.

Same Game Multi

Brisbane Lions +18.5 / Jack Martin Anytime Goalscorer / Will Ashcroft Anytime Goalscorer = $6.00

Value Leg – Hugh McGluggage 25+ Disposals

After just 14 disposals in the loss against the Cats a few weeks ago, Hugh has bounced back nicely with 33 and 37 touches against the Suns and Pies. So I think the price for 25+ disposals is a good one. 

Brisbane Lions +18.5 / Jack Martin Anytime Goalscorer / Will Ashcroft Anytime Goalscorer / Hugh McGluggage 25+ Disposals = $12.00

Norm Smith Medal Contenders

Bailey Smith – A big game last week with 36 touches, and followed that with a 3rd place in the Brownlow Medal. He has played in a GF before with the Dogs, so he has the experience. But I think his price is a bit short.

Max Holmes – Missed the 22 GF and will be desperate to play well. His best season overall and has averaged 24 disposals in his last 5 games. Also kicked a goal in 2 straight finals, which is a good sign.

Patrick Dangerfield – Against the Hawks last week, Danger hit season highs in disposals (31), kicks (14) and inside 50s (9). I think Dunkley will try and stop him around clearances but Danger is going to be hard to stop. He’s also never won the Norm Smith, which will be on his to-do list before retirement. A huge chance if the Cats win.

Will Ashcroft – With 2 goals against the Pies and Suns, Will is in great form heading into the GF. He won the medal last year, so the voters will be watching.

Hugh McCluggage – He’s been awesome in the Lions last 2 wins with 37 and 33 touches, along with 10 clearances in both games. Tommy Atkins will likely go to him after he had only 14 touches in the 1st final. But if Hugh plays better this time and the Lions win, Hugh offers a good value bet.

Jeremy Cameron – Jezza is a smoky if he comes to play. He’s coming off 3 and 2 goals in the 2 finals thus far. If he kicks 4 or 5 goals and gets 20+ disposals, I think he could get the medal.

If Cats Win – Patrick Dangerfield @ $8.00

If Lions Win – Hugh McCluggage @ $12.00

The race to the 2025 AFL Grand Final is down to 4 teams. The action kicks off on Friday night with the rested Cats taking on the high-flying 8th placed Hawks at the MCG. Then, the Pies and Lions rematch of the 2023 GF should be another classic.

Geelong Cats (2nd) vs Hawthorn Hawks (8th)

The Cats had the week off before this do-or-die Preliminary Final after an impressive display against the Lions in Week 1 of the finals. They had a comfortable 112-74 result, fueled by 16 goals. Impressive young star Ollie Dempsey had one of his best games, finishing with the most disposals for the Cats (25) and led the team in goals as well (3). Jezza Cameron was a bit inaccurate but still finished with 2 majors and Max Holmes had 23 disp / 6 tackles. Mark Blicavs was impressive in the ruck, leading the side with 26 hitouts and 20 disposals.

Coming into this final, the Cats are firing at the right time. They’ve won 7 straight and don’t have too many major injury issues. They love to start fast, wining the first half in 14 of their last 15 and that was one of their keys against the Lions, kicking 8.11 at the half. The MCG has been a favourite of the Cats this season, they’ve won 4 straight at the home of footy and 5-1 overall this season. In finals at the MCG, they are 5-3 in their last 8 since 2019.

In the player props, I like a few of these trends. Holmes has been in fine form this season and loves playing in Vic, getting 26+ touches in 6 of his last 7. He’ll also be desperate to play in a GF after missing the 2022 victory. If Cameron can get his accuracy right (7 behinds and 6 goals in the finals), he’s a good bet in the 3 to 5 goal markets. For some value, Miers has 2 or more goals in his last 3 prelims at the MCG.

The Hawks are daring to dream after back to back finals upsets over the Giants in Sydney (107-88) and the Crows in Adelaide (101-67). Last week against Adelaide, they kicked the first 3 goals of the game and never looked back, winning 101-67 in the end. Jack Gunston continued his great season in front of goals with 5 majors. Josh Ward put on an impressive display in the mids, finishing with 31 touches and 5 clearances. Sam Butler and Nick Watson also got 2 goals a piece.

One of the keys will be getting off to another quick start against the Cats and the Hawks have form in that area. They’ve won the 1st quarter in 7 straight games. Their record at the MCG this year is very good too, winning 7 of 10 and they beat the Dogs at the ‘G in last year’s finals series. However, they would love to have Will Day in the side.

Some players to watch in the player props starts with Gunston, who is arguably in career best form. He’s averaging 4.2 goals in his last 5 and a total of 21 goals. He also kicked 3 goals against the Cats in the last meeting. Newcombe has hit 28+ disposals in his last 2 finals. Watch out for Josh Weddle to kick a goal, he did it last week and has kicked a goal in 6 straight games in Victoria.

Stadium Record

Geelong are 4-1 in their last 5 at the MCG. Hawthorn have won 7 of 10 at this venue this season.

Head to Head Record

Since 2018, the Cats are 7-3 against the Hawks.

Best Bet

I’ve loved what the Hawks have done so far as the 8th team on the ladder but I think the travel factor and 2 tough finals may come back to hurt them in the 2nd half of this clash. The Cats are well rested and really don’t have much injury problems. So I find it hard to back against them at the line of just 9.5 pts.

Geelong Cats -9.5 = $1.90

AFL Same Game Multi – Cats v Hawks

Leg #1 – Ollie Dempsey Anytime Goalscorer

Dempsey should be hard to contain for the Hawks backline. He’s kicked a goal in 5 straight games since the start of August and finished with 3 last game.

Leg #2 – Max Holmes 25+ Disposals

Holmes comes off hitting 25+ disposals in 3 of his last 5 games and has a 6-1 record of getting past this mark in his last 7 Victorian games.

Leg #3 – Shannon Neale 2+ Goals

Neale is underrated in the Cats forward line. He’s kicked 15 goals in his last 5 games and with all the attention on Cameron, he should get plenty of looks.

Same Game Multi

Ollie Dempsey Anytime Goalscorer / Max Holmes 25+ Disposals / Shannon Neale 2+ Goals = $5.10

Value Leg – Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals

Jai is the rock in the Hawks mids and the Cats likely won’t tag him. He comes off 28 disposals against the Crows and dominated the Giants with 32.

Ollie Dempsey Anytime Goalscorer / Max Holmes 25+ Disposals / Shannon Neale 2+ Goals / Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals = $9.50

Collingwood Magpies (4th) vs Brisbane Lions (3rd)

The Pies held off the Crows in the 1st week of the AFL finals to lock in a Preliminary final at the MCG. They face off against the Lions, a team they beat in the 2023 decider, to make another GF. In the win over the Crows, there was plenty to like about the Pies performance, especially after struggling in the last month of the regular season.

Jordan De Goey led the disposals with 26 (6 clearances too) and the Daicos bros finished with 24 each. The midfield battle with the Lions will be one of the keys to this game so the form of De Goey is a big plus. Jamie Elliott was lethal in front of goals, nailed 4 majors in what has been an impressive season from him. The old vet Steele Sidebottom was also a major factor, kicking 3 straight goals.

The Pies form at the MCG recently hasn’t been great, losing 3 of their last 5. But I think a home final will be a different story. They have won 4 straight finals here since 2022. Also, they are 9-0 at the MCG after winning as an underdog. The injury list doesn’t look too bad as well for the Pies. They would love to get Jeremy Howe back from a groin injury and they could bring back Bobby Hill.

Some players to watch in the anytime goal scorer markets includes a few vets. Crisp loves playing finals at the MCG, having kicked a goal in 5 straight. The same can be said for Sidebottom, he’s kicked a goal in his last 5 home games at the MCG (non-finals) and bagged 3 last week.

For the Lions, after losing to the Cats in Week 1 of the finals, they returned home to the Gabba and gave a reminder to the comp that they are still a threat. They smashed cross-town rivals the Suns by 53 pts. Hugh McCluggage was impressive despite a knee injury, finishing with 33 touches and 10 clearances. Will Ashcroft was also at his brilliant best with 28 touches, 2 goals and 8 clearances. Those 2 will have a major say in this matchup too.

The Lions were better in front of the goals too. Bailey and Lohmann both kicked 3 goals. Young star Logan Morris bagged 2 goals and it’s hard to forget his last game against the Pies at the ‘G when he kicked 7 on Darcy Moore. Let’s see if he can have similar success.

While the Lions struggled to beat the Cats at the MCG a few weeks ago, their record here isn’t too bad at the moment and they seem to matchup well with Collingwood. They had previously won 5 straight and that includes a win over the Pies. They also have a decent 3-3 record in their last 6 finals here.

In the player props, Cam Rayner is one to watch around the goals. He’s kicked 2 or more goals in 3 of his last 4 against the Pies. Lohmann is back in form after struggling to keep his spot in the side. He’s now kicked 9 goals in his last 4 and 9 in his last 3 finals. Zorko has been a great play in the 25+ disposals markets when the Lions are in the finals, he’s hit that mark in 6 straight finals.

Stadium Record

Collingwood are 10-4 at the MCG this season. Brisbane has won 4 of their last 5 at this venue.

Head to Head Record

Since the 2023 GF, the Magpies have won 4 of the last 5 meetings. But the Lions won the most recent clash at the MCG in Round 21 (92-65).

Best Bet

In a similar story to the other final, I just think the week off is such a massive advantage. The Lions had to play last week and got through against the Suns. But their performance against the Cats at the MCG in the 1st week of the finals was concerning. So I think the Pies get the job done in front of their home faithful as they looked back to their best against the Crows in Adelaide.

Collingwood -6.5 = $1.95

AFL Same Game Multi – Magpies v Lions

Leg #1 – Nick Daicos Anytime Goalscorer

This man will be hard to stop on Saturday night. He’s kicked a goal in 3 of his last 5 games and always steps up in the big games.

Leg #2 – Jamie Elliott 2+ Goals

Elliott was unlucky to miss the All-Australian squad as this is probably his best season. He’s coming off 4 goals in a final and has also kicked 2+ goals in his last 3 games.

Leg #3 – Harris Andrews 15+ Disposals

If the game goes to plan and the Pies are getting plenty of inside 50 entries, Harris Andrews has been smashing the 15+ disposal market. He’s got past this mark in his last 5 games and should get plenty of marks / kicks in this one.

Same Game Multi

Nick Daicos Anytime Goalscorer / Jamie Elliott 2+ Goals / Harris Andrews 15+ Disposals = $4.60

Value Leg – Jordan De Goey 25+ Disposals

De Goey is coming off 26 disposals in 2 straight games, including a final against the Crows. He should be fresh after missing a lot of games this season and I see him dominating in this midfield battle against the Lions.

Nick Daicos Anytime Goalscorer / Jamie Elliott 2+ Goals / Harris Andrews 15+ Disposals / Jordan De Goey 25+ Disposals = $10.50

The Pies and Cats are enjoying a week off after victory in the 1st week of the AFL finals. So now 4 teams face elimination this weekend. First up, the top of the table Crows look to get back on track against a strong Hawks side. Meanwhile in QLD, the Gabba is sold out for the Q-Clash on Saturday night as the Suns aim for back to back finals victories for the first time.

Adelaide Crows (1st) vs Hawthorn (8th)

The ladder-leading Crows hit this must-win finals clash with the Hawks. They’re coming off a 24-point finals loss to the Pies at Adelaide Oval, so the response is the story here. Win and they tee up a date with the Cats next week. If there’s a soft spot, it’s volume: they don’t tend to rack up disposals (14th), but they usually don’t need to when they’re winning the territory battle. However, they are 3rd for goals in the AFL, strong territory (5th for inside 50s) and serious heat around the contest (3rd for tackles).

Form-wise, there are plenty of green lights. Luke Pedlar cashed in with three last start, Josh Worrell found plenty (26), and Rory Laird did what he does (24). Jordan Dawson was quieter than usual with 19 touches, which typically screams bounce-back captain’s game. One key out remains Izak Rankine—suspended for two more—so the Crows will spread the scoring load and lean into forward pressure to generate repeat entries.

From a betting angle, this profiles as a Crows-controlled game state: territory, pressure and repeat entries. Markets that make sense: Crows H2H or line, team total overs if you think their i50 edge translates, or play it safer with margin bands like Crows 1–39 if you expect the Hawks to hang around but not get blown out. Player props: Pedlar anytime (riding form), Worrell 20+ disposals, Laird 25+ as a base, and a Dawson 25+ “bounce-back” ticket if you like a narrative.

The Hawks roll into this one 15–8 and sitting 8th, a bit Jekyll-and-Hyde with a 10–1 home split but 5–7 away. Recent form’s solid at 3–2, and they’re coming off a clutch finals win over the Giants by 19 at Sydney Showgrounds, banging through 16 goals. Ball movement and pressure are their thing—ranked 5th for disposals and 5th for tackles—so if they control tempo and bring heat, they can make the Crows uncomfortable.

Up forward, the load was shared nicely last game with Macdonald, Gunston and Ginnivan all slotting three, while Jai Newcombe was everywhere with 32 touches. If they get past Adelaide, it’s the Cats next for a grand final spot. Watch the outs, though: Will Day, Maginness, Morrison and Dear (hamstring) are missing, which hurts their depth and mid-forward flexibility.

Stadium Record

Adelaide are 9-1 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. Hawthorn are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Hawks are 6-4 against the Crows.

Best Bet

The head to head is a tough one in this game as I think it could go either way. So I prefer to go with the Over total points. It has saluted in the last 3 matches between these two sides when they play in Adelaide. The met here a month ago and the scoreline was 101-87 with 188 total pts.

Over 166.5 pts = $1.90

AFL Same Game Multi – Crows v Hawks

Leg #1 – Luke Pedlar Anytime Goalscorer

Luke Pedlar has kicked 1+ goals in each of his last five home appearances. He’s hit form with 3 goals in both of his last two games, giving him 8 across his last 4, and looks dangerous around goal.

Leg #2 – Jack Ginnivan Anytime Goalscorer

Jack Ginnivan has kicked 1+ goals in each of Hawthorn’s last six interstate matches. He nailed 3 last week and has 5 in his last 2, so he’s a reliable go-to forward option.

Leg #3 – Jordan Dawson Anytime Goalscorer

Jordan Dawson has kicked 1+ goals in four of Adelaide’s last five home matches. He had a quieter game last week but still managed a major, and as captain in a do-or-die final, expect him to lift.

Leg #4 (Value) – Jarman Impey 25+ Disposals

Jarman Impey has cleared 25+ disposals in three of Hawthorn’s last four games. He racked up 28 last week and has strong knowledge of this ground from his Port Adelaide days, making him a good value pick.

Luke Pedlar Anytime Goalscorer / Jack Ginnivan Anytime Goalscorer / Jordan Dawson Anytime Goalscorer / Jarman Impey 25+ Disposals = $11.00

Brisbane Lions (3rd) vs Gold Coast Suns (7th)

The Lions are back at home for the biggest Q-Clash yet against the Suns. Their game is built around control and territory: they’re ranked 1st in the AFL for disposals, 2nd for clearances and 2nd for inside-50s, so when they get rolling the ball basically lives in their half. The one knock is pressure—tackling sits down at 15th—so they’ll want to win it first and keep it off the deck rather than turn it into a scrap, which the Suns would enjoy.

They’re 3–2 across the last five and are fresh off a tough qualifying-final loss to the Cats at the MCG (112–74), but there were still plenty of individual signs. Dayne Zorko went nuts with 35 touches, Lachie Neale and Will Ashcroft both had 30+, and Josh Dunkley piled on 30 as well. Cam Rayner found the goals with three, which is exactly the sort of spark they’ll want to carry home.

One watch is team availability with a lot of key players on the sidelines. They’re set to be without Answerth, Coleman, Doedee, Hipwood, McCarthy, Neale and Payne – significant names that hit both ends of the ground and the midfield rotations. Expect even more on-ball minutes for the likes of Zorko, Dunkley and Ashcroft, and a heavier forward workload for the smalls and mediums. The home split (7–4) still points to a lift back at their home deck.

The Suns hit this Q-Clash with a genuine tailwind. The headline is that gritty elimination final win in Perth—beating Freo by a single point for the club’s first finals victory in 15 years. David Swallow iced it with a late behind with nine seconds left, and they still found 11 goals on the road. Confidence box: tick.

Stat profile screams territory and damage: 1st in the AFL for inside-50s, 4th for clearances, 4th for goals. When they surge from stoppage, they don’t just get it in, they turn entries into scores. The split is real too: 9–2 at home, 6–6 away, so this trip to Brisbane is a proper test, but their style travels when the contest is hot especially with Rowell and Anderson in the side.

Form-wise, the pillars are in place. Humphrey (3 goals last game) offers a livewire target, Matt Rowell was a bull with 34 touches and six tackles, and Noah Anderson rolled to 32 disposals in a classy display. That inside combo is the key to matching the Lions’ midfield depth.

Stadium Record

Brisbane are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Gabba. Gold Coast are 3-18 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Lions hold a 8-2 record against the Suns.

Best Bet

This should be a massive Q-Clash between these two rivals and I don’t see a big margin. Brisbane are missing some key players, especially Neale and I think that showed last week in a big loss. The Suns will be fired up here. They have a poor record at the Gabba but as last week showed, they have a lot of confidence. So I will be close and the Suns cover the 8.5 start. They have a 7-1 ATS record against teams that won the GF in the previous season.

Gold Coast Suns +8.5 = $1.90

AFL Same Game Multi – Lions v Suns

Leg #1 – Over 167.5 pts

Brisbane’s last four finals have all gone over the total match points line, and when these two met in Round 20 it turned into a shootout that totalled 194 points (Suns 130–64). Expect another high-scoring clash with both sides built around midfield supply and attacking power.

Leg #2 – Noah Anderson 30+ Disposals

Noah Anderson has been piling them up in Queensland, recording 32+ disposals in each of his last five games there. He had 32 last week against Freo, 34 the week before against Essendon, and 32 against the Giants not long ago. As skipper, he’ll be right in the thick of it in this Q-Clash final.

Leg #3 – Callum Ah Chee Anytime Goalscorer

Callum Ah Chee steps up in finals footy. He’s kicked 1+ goals in four of Brisbane’s last five finals matches, and while a bit quieter recently, he’s still managed a major in two of his last four games. Expect him to pop up forward again.

Leg #4 (Value) – Jarrod Berry Anytime Goalscorer

Jarrod Berry has a handy record against the Suns at home, kicking a goal in each of Brisbane’s last three home Q-Clash games. He also snagged one last week against the Cats, making him a live value play to hit the scoreboard again.

Over 167.5 pts / Noah Anderson 30+ Disposals / Callum Ah Chee Anytime Goalscorer / Jarrod Berry Anytime Goalscorer = $14.00

The AFL Finals are here! We have four cracking matchups to kick off the finals and it all starts at the Adelaide Oval with the Crows hosting the Pies. Let’s get into it.

Adelaide Crows (1st) vs Collingwood (4th)

The Crows come into this finals clash with the Magpies in red-hot form. They’re sitting on top of the ladder with an impressive 18-5 record, including a dominant 11-1 run at home and 7-4 on the road. Even more impressive, they’re riding a nine-game winning streak and are unbeaten in their last five. Last round they got past North Melbourne by 13 points at Docklands, slotting 17 goals in the process. Ben Keays, Riley Thilthorpe, and James Peatling all chipped in with three goals each, with Thilthorpe leading the season tally at 55 majors. Statistically, the Crows are one of the most dangerous sides in the comp — ranked third for goals, fifth for inside 50s, and second for tackles. With 18 wins already on the board and their forward line firing, they’ll be tough to stop against the Pies.

The Magpies line up against the Crows sitting fourth on the ladder with a solid 16-7 record and can earn a home preliminary final with an upset over the top of the table Crows. They’ve been strong both home (9-3) and away (7-4), and come into this one off a gritty 6-point win over Melbourne at the MCG where they slotted 11 goals. Nick Daicos was busy with 27 disposals and 5 tackles, while Jamie Elliott added a couple of majors to his season tally of 52. Daicos continues to shine all year, averaging over 30 touches a game. The Pies’ biggest weapon is their pressure — they’re ranked number one in the AFL for tackles — but they do have issues around clearances and ball use, sitting 14th in both areas. Their recent form has been patchy at 2-3 across the last five, but they’ll take confidence from last week’s win as they look to build momentum heading into this clash with the ladder-leading Crows.

Stadium Record

Adelaide are 10-0 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. Collingwood are 9-1 in their last 10 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Magpies are 9-1 against the Crows.

Best Bet

After a form slump at the end of the regular season, the Pies come to Adelaide as underdogs but I like their chances. The bye week would have helped their older players recover and potentially fix up their backline issues. They also love playing in Adelaide having won 9 of their last 10. I think the Crows are still a bit young and don’t have a lot of finals experience, which may cost them in the big moments. Take the Pies to cover.

Collingwood +8.5 = $1.90

SGM

Collingwood’s recent run of unders points should lead to another tighter total. Ben Keays’ 15+ disposals at night at Adelaide Oval is a consistent banker and it helps that Rankine is out of the side. James Peatling kicked 3 goals in his last game and has kicked a goal in 4 of his last 5 games – offers great value.

Under 160.5 pts / Ben Keays 15+ disposals / James Peatling Anytime Goalscorer = $6.50

Geelong Cats (2nd) vs Brisbane Lions (3rd)

The Cats are in sizzling form for this final against the Lions, riding a six-game winning streak and sitting second on the ladder with a 17-6 record. Fresh off a 39-point win over Richmond at the MCG where they piled on 14 goals, they’ve locked in a home final and look every bit a contender. Jeremy Cameron was the standout up forward with four goals, taking his season tally to a massive 83, while Bailey Smith dominated through the middle with 34 touches — he’s averaging a league-best 31.7 disposals per game. The Cats have been strong everywhere this season, going 9-2 at home and 8-4 away, and their stats back it up — ranked second in goals, third in inside 50s, and third in tackles across the AFL. With form, firepower, and momentum on their side, they’ll be tough to stop against the Lions.

The Lions head into their finals showdown with the Cats sitting third on the ladder with a 16-6 record as they look to defend last year’s title. They’re coming off a tight 10-point win over Hawthorn at the Gabba where they kicked 11 goals, with Josh Dunkley (33 disposals) and Hugh McCluggage (32 disposals) leading the charge through the midfield. The Lions’ biggest strengths are around the contest — they’re ranked first in both clearances and disposals, and second for inside 50s — which makes them tough to beat when they’re on top around the ball. Logan Morris continues to be their main target up forward with 48 goals for the season. While their tackling pressure has been a weakness (ranking 17th in the AFL), they’ve still put together a strong campaign with a 9-1-2 record on the road and 7-4 at home. With back-to-back wins and a bit of momentum building, they’ll be fired up to take on the in-form Cats.

Stadium Record

Geelong are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. Brisbane are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.

Best Bet

This is another final where I think it’s a 50/50 and the Lions present good value as an underdog. They don’t mind travelling to Melbourne as they’re now 8-0 in the state of Victoria. They’ve also won some big finals at the MCG over the last few years, including a 10 pt win over the Cats in last year’s final series. The underdog tag suits them too, they’re 15-0 as a betting underdog. I think Geelong have had a soft schedule coming into the finals after playing the Tigers and Bombers, which may not be the best form guide.

Brisbane Lions +6.5 = $1.90

SGM

Brisbane’s eight-game winning streak in Victoria sets a strong platform to take the start, while Hugh McCluggage’s anytime scoring form and Oliver Dempsey’s reliable goal output at the ‘G add attacking legs with upside. A live underdog plus two proven anytime goal scorers builds a juicy multi.

Brisbane Lions +6.5 / Hugh McCluggage Anytime Goalscorer / Oliver Dempsey Anytime Goalscorer = $8.50

GWS Giants (5th) vs Hawthorn (8th)

The Giants earned a home final with a strong 16-7 record, including 8 wins at home and 8 on the road. They’ve hit some good form lately with three straight victories and four wins from their last five. Last round they got past St Kilda at Sydney Showgrounds by 11 points, piling on 15 goals with Toby Greene leading the charge up forward with four majors. Aaron Cadman (44 goals) and Jesse Hogan (43 goals) have also been key targets all season. Through the midfield, Tom Green (averaging 29.5 disposals), Lachie Whitfield (28.3), and Finn Callaghan (28.1) continue to rack up the ball, with Whitfield and Ash both cracking 30+ touches last week. The Giants are ranked 4th in the comp for disposals and 5th for goals, so they’re a dangerous side when they get their game going, though clearances remain their weak spot at 15th. With their stars in form and plenty of momentum, they’ll fancy their chances against the Hawks.

The Hawks take on the Giants this week sitting 8th on the ladder with a 15-8 record. They’ve been almost unbeatable at home with a 10-1 record, though their away form has been patchier at 5-7. Last round they went down to the Lions at the Gabba by 10 points in a tight contest, with Karl Amon racking up 34 disposals and Mabior Chol chipping in with three goals. Jack Gunston has been their main target all year, leading the goalkicking with 62 majors. Stat-wise, the Hawks are tough around the ball, ranked 5th in both disposals and tackles, and they’ve won three of their last five to stay in the hunt. With strong midfield numbers and plenty of firepower up forward, they’ll be looking to bounce back hard against the Giants.

Stadium Record

In their last 10 games at the Sydney Showgrounds, GWS hold a 8-2 record. Hawthorn are 0-8 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the Giants hold a 3-2 record against the Hawks.

Best Bet

The Giants should be tough to beat on their home turf as the trends are against the Hawks. They’ve never won at this venue in 8 attempts and it will be even tougher in a final. Whereas, the Giants are 8-2 in their last 10 home games at the Sydney Showgrounds and that home ground advantage should be tough to back against.

Greater Western Sydney Giants = $1.77

SGM

Six straight head-to-head unders suggest another grind, and GWS’ strong first-half profile in Week 1 Finals day games lines up with the market trend of home teams covering against Hawthorn. Back a slower total, Giants to edge the line, and to be in front at the main break.

Under 169.5 pts / GWS -3.5 / GWS HT Lead = $4.50

Fremantle (6th) vs Gold Coast Suns (7th)

The Dockers head into their elimination final clash with the Suns sitting 6th on the ladder and locked in for a home final after a strong 16-7 season. They’ve been solid both at home (8-3) and away (8-4), and their recent form has been impressive with four wins from their last five. Last round they took down the Bulldogs by 15 points at Docklands, piling on 17 goals with Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss, and Patrick Voss all booting three each. Treacy has been their main man up forward this year with 42 goals. While the Dockers do struggle in the disposal count, ranking 16th in the comp, their scoring power has been on full display. With momentum on their side and a finals spot secured, they’ll be tough to beat against the Suns.

The Suns are gearing up for their first ever finals campaign, finishing the season in 7th spot with a 15-8 record. They’ve been strong at home with a 9-2 record, while splitting their away games 6-6. Last week they absolutely smashed Essendon at Carrara, winning by 95 points and piling on 23 goals. Ben King was unstoppable with seven majors to take his season tally to 69, while Noah Anderson (34 disposals and 3 goals) and Matt Rowell (31 disposals and 2 goals) dominated through the middle. Anderson’s been one of the league’s top ball winners all year, averaging 30.2 touches per game. Stat-wise, the Suns are elite in attack and around the contest — ranked 1st for inside 50s, 4th for goals, and 4th for clearances. With their midfield firing and King in hot form, they’re heading into their showdown with the Dockers full of confidence and plenty of momentum.

Stadium Record

Fremantle are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. Gold Coast are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

The Dockers are 3-2 against the Suns in the last 5.

Best Bet

The Suns make the finals for the first time and have to travel, which is not something they are good at. They’re 1-16 ATS an away underdog and have lost their last 8 games in WA as an underdog too. The Dockers have a good record in finals week 1, winnning 5 of their last 6 by the 1-39 margin. I don’t see them blowing out the Suns so a comfortable 1-39 margin presents good value.

Fremantle 1-39 = $2.15

SGM

With eight of the last nine Dockers v Suns clashes landing under and Gold Coast struggling to cover as an away underdog (16 of its last 17), this build leans into a low-tempo game with Fremantle controlling early. Under 163.5 pairs neatly with Freo -10.5 and a HT lead for a tightly correlated same-game multi at a value price.

Under 163.5 pts / Fremantle -10.5 / Fremantle HT Lead = $4.20