The AFL Grand Final should be an absolute classic on Saturday at the MCG. The Geelong Cats will be looking to make it 2 GF wins in the last 3 years and their 11th in the history of the AFL. The Brisbane Lions are looking to go back to back and win their 5th Grand Final in Lions history. Here’s my tips for this huge Grand Final matchup.

Geelong Cats (2nd) vs Brisbane Lions (3rd)

The Cats head into the 2025 AFL Grand Final as warm favourites to lift their 2nd trophy in just 3 years. They thrashed the Swans back in 2022 and while this shouldn’t be a repeat, Geelong should be very confident. In the finals so far, they’ve already taken down the Lions 115-85 in the qualifying finals and the week off before beating Hawthorn should help them in the GF.

Last week, the Cats were slow starters against the Hawks, falling behind at quarter time 22-9. But the 2nd half was all about the Cats and Patty Dangerfield as they piled on 11 goals to 6. Dangerfield had one of the great finals, finishing with 31 touches, 3 goals and 8 clearances. Bailey Smith was also impressive with 36 touches. Cameron had 5 shots on goal, kicking 3 and Stengle also added 3 goals.

The only trouble for the Cats is the concussion to Tom Stewart, who will miss the GF as a result. But Chris Scott will have a replacement as the Cats have a lot of depth. Jack Henry also picked up an ankle injury in the win over Hawthorn but should be fine.

In the player props, there is some good value to look out for. Bailey Smith had an impressive game against the Hawks and has now got 30+ touches in 6 of his last 7. Gryan Miers also had an excellent game against the Hawks, finishing with 27 disposals. He’s nice value in the 20+ disposals markets. Another decent value bet should be Brad Close. He got 18 disposals against the Lions in Week 1 of the finals and 15 last week. Danger to get 25+ disposals is worth a shot. He got 32 last week and I can see him having another big game if Geelong get on top.

In the goal scoring markets, look out for Shaun Mannagh. He’s coming off 2 goals last week and has a total of 10 goals in his last 5. As a mature player, I think he’ll enjoy the Grand Final experience and it offers nice value. Mark Blicavs has kicked a goal in back to back finals, making him a nice choice in the anytime goal scorer markets. Also, Bailey Smith offers a nice price to kick a goal. He’s also kicked one in both finals too.

The Lions are into their 3rd Grand Final in a row and will be looking to go back to back, a bit like the mighty Lions in the early 2000s. They’ve had go the hard way after losing to the Cats in the 1st week of the finals. After that performance, they bounced back nicely at home with a crushing win over the Suns at the Gabba.

Last week, they overcame the Pies and the crowd at the MCG with a massive 100-71 result. Hugh McCluggage shook off any injury concerns with a great performance – 37 disposals, 1 goal, 8 marks and 10 clearances. Zorko also picked up 28 disposals and had 9 inside 50s. Ty Gallop stood tall with 3 straight goals in the best game of his career. Bailey, Ashcroft and Rayner also added 2 goals each.

In the disposals markets for the Lions, there is some Brissy players to back. Harris Andrews picked up the Jim Stynes medal on Monday for his community work and he’s been smashing it on the field too. He’s coming off 15 or more disposals in his last 3 finals. Josh Dunkley loves playing the Cats having 25+ touches in his last 7 against them. Also, look out for McCluggage in the 30+ disposals market. He’s got there in his last 2 games and if Brisbane win, he’ll be right up there again.

Zorko should be a safe play in the 25+ disposals markets, he’s hit that mark in 4 of his last 5 and has 32+ touches in his last 3 against Geelong. In the goal scorer markets, Kai Lohmann is someone who can go under the radar to kick multiple goals. He’s kicked 10 goals in his last 5 games and had an impressive performance in last year’s GF. Will Ashcroft gets plenty of chances to kick one, he’s got 2+ goals in 2 straight finals. McCluggage can also hit the scoreboard and should offer nice value in the anytime goal scorer markets.

Stadium Record

Geelong have won 5 of their last 6 finals at the MCG. They are also looking for a 6th straight win at the G. Brisbane are 3-1 in their last 4 finals at the MCG. They are 6-1 in their last 7 at the venue since 2024.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is square at 5-5. Geelong won the last matchup 112-74 but the Lions won 2 of 3 against them this season. In finals since 2020, the Cats are 3-1.

Best Bet

I think this is a close Grand Final, similar to the 2023 clash between the Pies and Lions. So I think the head to head is a tough one if it’s close and the total points looks a bit safer as the best bet. In the Cats last 6 finals, the Over has saluted in all 6.  Brisbane have kicked 100 pts exactly in their last 2 wins and still managed 74 in the 1st final. Geelong haven’t scored under pts since Round 18 – 8 straight games of 100+ pts.

Over 171.5 pts = $1.90

AFL Grand Final Same Game Multi – Cats v Lions

Leg #1 – Brisbane Lions +18.5

I think the Lions can keep the margin under 3 goals this time. They have the experience of playing 3 straight Grand Finals and that should help them in the key moments. They’ve also performed well at the MCG lately and will be eager to overturn the 30 pt loss against the Cats a few weeks ago. The losing QF team actually has a good record in this situation, which work into the Lions favour.

Leg #2 – Jack Martin Anytime Goalscorer

Martin is someone that can go a bit unnoticed with all the attention on Cameron and Danger. He’s coming off 5 straight games of 1 or more goals and should be able to sneak one in there again.

Leg #3 – Will Ashcroft Anytime Goalscorer

Will Ashcroft is the reigning Norm Smith medalist and shows up in the big games. So I think he’ll hit the scoreboard in the GF. He’s kicked 4 goals in his last 2 games and has hit the anytime goalscorer in both.

Same Game Multi

Brisbane Lions +18.5 / Jack Martin Anytime Goalscorer / Will Ashcroft Anytime Goalscorer = $6.00

Value Leg – Hugh McGluggage 25+ Disposals

After just 14 disposals in the loss against the Cats a few weeks ago, Hugh has bounced back nicely with 33 and 37 touches against the Suns and Pies. So I think the price for 25+ disposals is a good one. 

Brisbane Lions +18.5 / Jack Martin Anytime Goalscorer / Will Ashcroft Anytime Goalscorer / Hugh McGluggage 25+ Disposals = $12.00

Norm Smith Medal Contenders

Bailey Smith – A big game last week with 36 touches, and followed that with a 3rd place in the Brownlow Medal. He has played in a GF before with the Dogs, so he has the experience. But I think his price is a bit short.

Max Holmes – Missed the 22 GF and will be desperate to play well. His best season overall and has averaged 24 disposals in his last 5 games. Also kicked a goal in 2 straight finals, which is a good sign.

Patrick Dangerfield – Against the Hawks last week, Danger hit season highs in disposals (31), kicks (14) and inside 50s (9). I think Dunkley will try and stop him around clearances but Danger is going to be hard to stop. He’s also never won the Norm Smith, which will be on his to-do list before retirement. A huge chance if the Cats win.

Will Ashcroft – With 2 goals against the Pies and Suns, Will is in great form heading into the GF. He won the medal last year, so the voters will be watching.

Hugh McCluggage – He’s been awesome in the Lions last 2 wins with 37 and 33 touches, along with 10 clearances in both games. Tommy Atkins will likely go to him after he had only 14 touches in the 1st final. But if Hugh plays better this time and the Lions win, Hugh offers a good value bet.

Jeremy Cameron – Jezza is a smoky if he comes to play. He’s coming off 3 and 2 goals in the 2 finals thus far. If he kicks 4 or 5 goals and gets 20+ disposals, I think he could get the medal.

If Cats Win – Patrick Dangerfield @ $8.00

If Lions Win – Hugh McCluggage @ $12.00

The race to the 2025 AFL Grand Final is down to 4 teams. The action kicks off on Friday night with the rested Cats taking on the high-flying 8th placed Hawks at the MCG. Then, the Pies and Lions rematch of the 2023 GF should be another classic.

Geelong Cats (2nd) vs Hawthorn Hawks (8th)

The Cats had the week off before this do-or-die Preliminary Final after an impressive display against the Lions in Week 1 of the finals. They had a comfortable 112-74 result, fueled by 16 goals. Impressive young star Ollie Dempsey had one of his best games, finishing with the most disposals for the Cats (25) and led the team in goals as well (3). Jezza Cameron was a bit inaccurate but still finished with 2 majors and Max Holmes had 23 disp / 6 tackles. Mark Blicavs was impressive in the ruck, leading the side with 26 hitouts and 20 disposals.

Coming into this final, the Cats are firing at the right time. They’ve won 7 straight and don’t have too many major injury issues. They love to start fast, wining the first half in 14 of their last 15 and that was one of their keys against the Lions, kicking 8.11 at the half. The MCG has been a favourite of the Cats this season, they’ve won 4 straight at the home of footy and 5-1 overall this season. In finals at the MCG, they are 5-3 in their last 8 since 2019.

In the player props, I like a few of these trends. Holmes has been in fine form this season and loves playing in Vic, getting 26+ touches in 6 of his last 7. He’ll also be desperate to play in a GF after missing the 2022 victory. If Cameron can get his accuracy right (7 behinds and 6 goals in the finals), he’s a good bet in the 3 to 5 goal markets. For some value, Miers has 2 or more goals in his last 3 prelims at the MCG.

The Hawks are daring to dream after back to back finals upsets over the Giants in Sydney (107-88) and the Crows in Adelaide (101-67). Last week against Adelaide, they kicked the first 3 goals of the game and never looked back, winning 101-67 in the end. Jack Gunston continued his great season in front of goals with 5 majors. Josh Ward put on an impressive display in the mids, finishing with 31 touches and 5 clearances. Sam Butler and Nick Watson also got 2 goals a piece.

One of the keys will be getting off to another quick start against the Cats and the Hawks have form in that area. They’ve won the 1st quarter in 7 straight games. Their record at the MCG this year is very good too, winning 7 of 10 and they beat the Dogs at the ‘G in last year’s finals series. However, they would love to have Will Day in the side.

Some players to watch in the player props starts with Gunston, who is arguably in career best form. He’s averaging 4.2 goals in his last 5 and a total of 21 goals. He also kicked 3 goals against the Cats in the last meeting. Newcombe has hit 28+ disposals in his last 2 finals. Watch out for Josh Weddle to kick a goal, he did it last week and has kicked a goal in 6 straight games in Victoria.

Stadium Record

Geelong are 4-1 in their last 5 at the MCG. Hawthorn have won 7 of 10 at this venue this season.

Head to Head Record

Since 2018, the Cats are 7-3 against the Hawks.

Best Bet

I’ve loved what the Hawks have done so far as the 8th team on the ladder but I think the travel factor and 2 tough finals may come back to hurt them in the 2nd half of this clash. The Cats are well rested and really don’t have much injury problems. So I find it hard to back against them at the line of just 9.5 pts.

Geelong Cats -9.5 = $1.90

AFL Same Game Multi – Cats v Hawks

Leg #1 – Ollie Dempsey Anytime Goalscorer

Dempsey should be hard to contain for the Hawks backline. He’s kicked a goal in 5 straight games since the start of August and finished with 3 last game.

Leg #2 – Max Holmes 25+ Disposals

Holmes comes off hitting 25+ disposals in 3 of his last 5 games and has a 6-1 record of getting past this mark in his last 7 Victorian games.

Leg #3 – Shannon Neale 2+ Goals

Neale is underrated in the Cats forward line. He’s kicked 15 goals in his last 5 games and with all the attention on Cameron, he should get plenty of looks.

Same Game Multi

Ollie Dempsey Anytime Goalscorer / Max Holmes 25+ Disposals / Shannon Neale 2+ Goals = $5.10

Value Leg – Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals

Jai is the rock in the Hawks mids and the Cats likely won’t tag him. He comes off 28 disposals against the Crows and dominated the Giants with 32.

Ollie Dempsey Anytime Goalscorer / Max Holmes 25+ Disposals / Shannon Neale 2+ Goals / Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals = $9.50

Collingwood Magpies (4th) vs Brisbane Lions (3rd)

The Pies held off the Crows in the 1st week of the AFL finals to lock in a Preliminary final at the MCG. They face off against the Lions, a team they beat in the 2023 decider, to make another GF. In the win over the Crows, there was plenty to like about the Pies performance, especially after struggling in the last month of the regular season.

Jordan De Goey led the disposals with 26 (6 clearances too) and the Daicos bros finished with 24 each. The midfield battle with the Lions will be one of the keys to this game so the form of De Goey is a big plus. Jamie Elliott was lethal in front of goals, nailed 4 majors in what has been an impressive season from him. The old vet Steele Sidebottom was also a major factor, kicking 3 straight goals.

The Pies form at the MCG recently hasn’t been great, losing 3 of their last 5. But I think a home final will be a different story. They have won 4 straight finals here since 2022. Also, they are 9-0 at the MCG after winning as an underdog. The injury list doesn’t look too bad as well for the Pies. They would love to get Jeremy Howe back from a groin injury and they could bring back Bobby Hill.

Some players to watch in the anytime goal scorer markets includes a few vets. Crisp loves playing finals at the MCG, having kicked a goal in 5 straight. The same can be said for Sidebottom, he’s kicked a goal in his last 5 home games at the MCG (non-finals) and bagged 3 last week.

For the Lions, after losing to the Cats in Week 1 of the finals, they returned home to the Gabba and gave a reminder to the comp that they are still a threat. They smashed cross-town rivals the Suns by 53 pts. Hugh McCluggage was impressive despite a knee injury, finishing with 33 touches and 10 clearances. Will Ashcroft was also at his brilliant best with 28 touches, 2 goals and 8 clearances. Those 2 will have a major say in this matchup too.

The Lions were better in front of the goals too. Bailey and Lohmann both kicked 3 goals. Young star Logan Morris bagged 2 goals and it’s hard to forget his last game against the Pies at the ‘G when he kicked 7 on Darcy Moore. Let’s see if he can have similar success.

While the Lions struggled to beat the Cats at the MCG a few weeks ago, their record here isn’t too bad at the moment and they seem to matchup well with Collingwood. They had previously won 5 straight and that includes a win over the Pies. They also have a decent 3-3 record in their last 6 finals here.

In the player props, Cam Rayner is one to watch around the goals. He’s kicked 2 or more goals in 3 of his last 4 against the Pies. Lohmann is back in form after struggling to keep his spot in the side. He’s now kicked 9 goals in his last 4 and 9 in his last 3 finals. Zorko has been a great play in the 25+ disposals markets when the Lions are in the finals, he’s hit that mark in 6 straight finals.

Stadium Record

Collingwood are 10-4 at the MCG this season. Brisbane has won 4 of their last 5 at this venue.

Head to Head Record

Since the 2023 GF, the Magpies have won 4 of the last 5 meetings. But the Lions won the most recent clash at the MCG in Round 21 (92-65).

Best Bet

In a similar story to the other final, I just think the week off is such a massive advantage. The Lions had to play last week and got through against the Suns. But their performance against the Cats at the MCG in the 1st week of the finals was concerning. So I think the Pies get the job done in front of their home faithful as they looked back to their best against the Crows in Adelaide.

Collingwood -6.5 = $1.95

AFL Same Game Multi – Magpies v Lions

Leg #1 – Nick Daicos Anytime Goalscorer

This man will be hard to stop on Saturday night. He’s kicked a goal in 3 of his last 5 games and always steps up in the big games.

Leg #2 – Jamie Elliott 2+ Goals

Elliott was unlucky to miss the All-Australian squad as this is probably his best season. He’s coming off 4 goals in a final and has also kicked 2+ goals in his last 3 games.

Leg #3 – Harris Andrews 15+ Disposals

If the game goes to plan and the Pies are getting plenty of inside 50 entries, Harris Andrews has been smashing the 15+ disposal market. He’s got past this mark in his last 5 games and should get plenty of marks / kicks in this one.

Same Game Multi

Nick Daicos Anytime Goalscorer / Jamie Elliott 2+ Goals / Harris Andrews 15+ Disposals = $4.60

Value Leg – Jordan De Goey 25+ Disposals

De Goey is coming off 26 disposals in 2 straight games, including a final against the Crows. He should be fresh after missing a lot of games this season and I see him dominating in this midfield battle against the Lions.

Nick Daicos Anytime Goalscorer / Jamie Elliott 2+ Goals / Harris Andrews 15+ Disposals / Jordan De Goey 25+ Disposals = $10.50

The Pies and Cats are enjoying a week off after victory in the 1st week of the AFL finals. So now 4 teams face elimination this weekend. First up, the top of the table Crows look to get back on track against a strong Hawks side. Meanwhile in QLD, the Gabba is sold out for the Q-Clash on Saturday night as the Suns aim for back to back finals victories for the first time.

Adelaide Crows (1st) vs Hawthorn (8th)

The ladder-leading Crows hit this must-win finals clash with the Hawks. They’re coming off a 24-point finals loss to the Pies at Adelaide Oval, so the response is the story here. Win and they tee up a date with the Cats next week. If there’s a soft spot, it’s volume: they don’t tend to rack up disposals (14th), but they usually don’t need to when they’re winning the territory battle. However, they are 3rd for goals in the AFL, strong territory (5th for inside 50s) and serious heat around the contest (3rd for tackles).

Form-wise, there are plenty of green lights. Luke Pedlar cashed in with three last start, Josh Worrell found plenty (26), and Rory Laird did what he does (24). Jordan Dawson was quieter than usual with 19 touches, which typically screams bounce-back captain’s game. One key out remains Izak Rankine—suspended for two more—so the Crows will spread the scoring load and lean into forward pressure to generate repeat entries.

From a betting angle, this profiles as a Crows-controlled game state: territory, pressure and repeat entries. Markets that make sense: Crows H2H or line, team total overs if you think their i50 edge translates, or play it safer with margin bands like Crows 1–39 if you expect the Hawks to hang around but not get blown out. Player props: Pedlar anytime (riding form), Worrell 20+ disposals, Laird 25+ as a base, and a Dawson 25+ “bounce-back” ticket if you like a narrative.

The Hawks roll into this one 15–8 and sitting 8th, a bit Jekyll-and-Hyde with a 10–1 home split but 5–7 away. Recent form’s solid at 3–2, and they’re coming off a clutch finals win over the Giants by 19 at Sydney Showgrounds, banging through 16 goals. Ball movement and pressure are their thing—ranked 5th for disposals and 5th for tackles—so if they control tempo and bring heat, they can make the Crows uncomfortable.

Up forward, the load was shared nicely last game with Macdonald, Gunston and Ginnivan all slotting three, while Jai Newcombe was everywhere with 32 touches. If they get past Adelaide, it’s the Cats next for a grand final spot. Watch the outs, though: Will Day, Maginness, Morrison and Dear (hamstring) are missing, which hurts their depth and mid-forward flexibility.

Stadium Record

Adelaide are 9-1 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. Hawthorn are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Hawks are 6-4 against the Crows.

Best Bet

The head to head is a tough one in this game as I think it could go either way. So I prefer to go with the Over total points. It has saluted in the last 3 matches between these two sides when they play in Adelaide. The met here a month ago and the scoreline was 101-87 with 188 total pts.

Over 166.5 pts = $1.90

AFL Same Game Multi – Crows v Hawks

Leg #1 – Luke Pedlar Anytime Goalscorer

Luke Pedlar has kicked 1+ goals in each of his last five home appearances. He’s hit form with 3 goals in both of his last two games, giving him 8 across his last 4, and looks dangerous around goal.

Leg #2 – Jack Ginnivan Anytime Goalscorer

Jack Ginnivan has kicked 1+ goals in each of Hawthorn’s last six interstate matches. He nailed 3 last week and has 5 in his last 2, so he’s a reliable go-to forward option.

Leg #3 – Jordan Dawson Anytime Goalscorer

Jordan Dawson has kicked 1+ goals in four of Adelaide’s last five home matches. He had a quieter game last week but still managed a major, and as captain in a do-or-die final, expect him to lift.

Leg #4 (Value) – Jarman Impey 25+ Disposals

Jarman Impey has cleared 25+ disposals in three of Hawthorn’s last four games. He racked up 28 last week and has strong knowledge of this ground from his Port Adelaide days, making him a good value pick.

Luke Pedlar Anytime Goalscorer / Jack Ginnivan Anytime Goalscorer / Jordan Dawson Anytime Goalscorer / Jarman Impey 25+ Disposals = $11.00

Brisbane Lions (3rd) vs Gold Coast Suns (7th)

The Lions are back at home for the biggest Q-Clash yet against the Suns. Their game is built around control and territory: they’re ranked 1st in the AFL for disposals, 2nd for clearances and 2nd for inside-50s, so when they get rolling the ball basically lives in their half. The one knock is pressure—tackling sits down at 15th—so they’ll want to win it first and keep it off the deck rather than turn it into a scrap, which the Suns would enjoy.

They’re 3–2 across the last five and are fresh off a tough qualifying-final loss to the Cats at the MCG (112–74), but there were still plenty of individual signs. Dayne Zorko went nuts with 35 touches, Lachie Neale and Will Ashcroft both had 30+, and Josh Dunkley piled on 30 as well. Cam Rayner found the goals with three, which is exactly the sort of spark they’ll want to carry home.

One watch is team availability with a lot of key players on the sidelines. They’re set to be without Answerth, Coleman, Doedee, Hipwood, McCarthy, Neale and Payne – significant names that hit both ends of the ground and the midfield rotations. Expect even more on-ball minutes for the likes of Zorko, Dunkley and Ashcroft, and a heavier forward workload for the smalls and mediums. The home split (7–4) still points to a lift back at their home deck.

The Suns hit this Q-Clash with a genuine tailwind. The headline is that gritty elimination final win in Perth—beating Freo by a single point for the club’s first finals victory in 15 years. David Swallow iced it with a late behind with nine seconds left, and they still found 11 goals on the road. Confidence box: tick.

Stat profile screams territory and damage: 1st in the AFL for inside-50s, 4th for clearances, 4th for goals. When they surge from stoppage, they don’t just get it in, they turn entries into scores. The split is real too: 9–2 at home, 6–6 away, so this trip to Brisbane is a proper test, but their style travels when the contest is hot especially with Rowell and Anderson in the side.

Form-wise, the pillars are in place. Humphrey (3 goals last game) offers a livewire target, Matt Rowell was a bull with 34 touches and six tackles, and Noah Anderson rolled to 32 disposals in a classy display. That inside combo is the key to matching the Lions’ midfield depth.

Stadium Record

Brisbane are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Gabba. Gold Coast are 3-18 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Lions hold a 8-2 record against the Suns.

Best Bet

This should be a massive Q-Clash between these two rivals and I don’t see a big margin. Brisbane are missing some key players, especially Neale and I think that showed last week in a big loss. The Suns will be fired up here. They have a poor record at the Gabba but as last week showed, they have a lot of confidence. So I will be close and the Suns cover the 8.5 start. They have a 7-1 ATS record against teams that won the GF in the previous season.

Gold Coast Suns +8.5 = $1.90

AFL Same Game Multi – Lions v Suns

Leg #1 – Over 167.5 pts

Brisbane’s last four finals have all gone over the total match points line, and when these two met in Round 20 it turned into a shootout that totalled 194 points (Suns 130–64). Expect another high-scoring clash with both sides built around midfield supply and attacking power.

Leg #2 – Noah Anderson 30+ Disposals

Noah Anderson has been piling them up in Queensland, recording 32+ disposals in each of his last five games there. He had 32 last week against Freo, 34 the week before against Essendon, and 32 against the Giants not long ago. As skipper, he’ll be right in the thick of it in this Q-Clash final.

Leg #3 – Callum Ah Chee Anytime Goalscorer

Callum Ah Chee steps up in finals footy. He’s kicked 1+ goals in four of Brisbane’s last five finals matches, and while a bit quieter recently, he’s still managed a major in two of his last four games. Expect him to pop up forward again.

Leg #4 (Value) – Jarrod Berry Anytime Goalscorer

Jarrod Berry has a handy record against the Suns at home, kicking a goal in each of Brisbane’s last three home Q-Clash games. He also snagged one last week against the Cats, making him a live value play to hit the scoreboard again.

Over 167.5 pts / Noah Anderson 30+ Disposals / Callum Ah Chee Anytime Goalscorer / Jarrod Berry Anytime Goalscorer = $14.00

The AFL Finals are here! We have four cracking matchups to kick off the finals and it all starts at the Adelaide Oval with the Crows hosting the Pies. Let’s get into it.

Adelaide Crows (1st) vs Collingwood (4th)

The Crows come into this finals clash with the Magpies in red-hot form. They’re sitting on top of the ladder with an impressive 18-5 record, including a dominant 11-1 run at home and 7-4 on the road. Even more impressive, they’re riding a nine-game winning streak and are unbeaten in their last five. Last round they got past North Melbourne by 13 points at Docklands, slotting 17 goals in the process. Ben Keays, Riley Thilthorpe, and James Peatling all chipped in with three goals each, with Thilthorpe leading the season tally at 55 majors. Statistically, the Crows are one of the most dangerous sides in the comp — ranked third for goals, fifth for inside 50s, and second for tackles. With 18 wins already on the board and their forward line firing, they’ll be tough to stop against the Pies.

The Magpies line up against the Crows sitting fourth on the ladder with a solid 16-7 record and can earn a home preliminary final with an upset over the top of the table Crows. They’ve been strong both home (9-3) and away (7-4), and come into this one off a gritty 6-point win over Melbourne at the MCG where they slotted 11 goals. Nick Daicos was busy with 27 disposals and 5 tackles, while Jamie Elliott added a couple of majors to his season tally of 52. Daicos continues to shine all year, averaging over 30 touches a game. The Pies’ biggest weapon is their pressure — they’re ranked number one in the AFL for tackles — but they do have issues around clearances and ball use, sitting 14th in both areas. Their recent form has been patchy at 2-3 across the last five, but they’ll take confidence from last week’s win as they look to build momentum heading into this clash with the ladder-leading Crows.

Stadium Record

Adelaide are 10-0 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. Collingwood are 9-1 in their last 10 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Magpies are 9-1 against the Crows.

Best Bet

After a form slump at the end of the regular season, the Pies come to Adelaide as underdogs but I like their chances. The bye week would have helped their older players recover and potentially fix up their backline issues. They also love playing in Adelaide having won 9 of their last 10. I think the Crows are still a bit young and don’t have a lot of finals experience, which may cost them in the big moments. Take the Pies to cover.

Collingwood +8.5 = $1.90

SGM

Collingwood’s recent run of unders points should lead to another tighter total. Ben Keays’ 15+ disposals at night at Adelaide Oval is a consistent banker and it helps that Rankine is out of the side. James Peatling kicked 3 goals in his last game and has kicked a goal in 4 of his last 5 games – offers great value.

Under 160.5 pts / Ben Keays 15+ disposals / James Peatling Anytime Goalscorer = $6.50

Geelong Cats (2nd) vs Brisbane Lions (3rd)

The Cats are in sizzling form for this final against the Lions, riding a six-game winning streak and sitting second on the ladder with a 17-6 record. Fresh off a 39-point win over Richmond at the MCG where they piled on 14 goals, they’ve locked in a home final and look every bit a contender. Jeremy Cameron was the standout up forward with four goals, taking his season tally to a massive 83, while Bailey Smith dominated through the middle with 34 touches — he’s averaging a league-best 31.7 disposals per game. The Cats have been strong everywhere this season, going 9-2 at home and 8-4 away, and their stats back it up — ranked second in goals, third in inside 50s, and third in tackles across the AFL. With form, firepower, and momentum on their side, they’ll be tough to stop against the Lions.

The Lions head into their finals showdown with the Cats sitting third on the ladder with a 16-6 record as they look to defend last year’s title. They’re coming off a tight 10-point win over Hawthorn at the Gabba where they kicked 11 goals, with Josh Dunkley (33 disposals) and Hugh McCluggage (32 disposals) leading the charge through the midfield. The Lions’ biggest strengths are around the contest — they’re ranked first in both clearances and disposals, and second for inside 50s — which makes them tough to beat when they’re on top around the ball. Logan Morris continues to be their main target up forward with 48 goals for the season. While their tackling pressure has been a weakness (ranking 17th in the AFL), they’ve still put together a strong campaign with a 9-1-2 record on the road and 7-4 at home. With back-to-back wins and a bit of momentum building, they’ll be fired up to take on the in-form Cats.

Stadium Record

Geelong are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. Brisbane are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.

Best Bet

This is another final where I think it’s a 50/50 and the Lions present good value as an underdog. They don’t mind travelling to Melbourne as they’re now 8-0 in the state of Victoria. They’ve also won some big finals at the MCG over the last few years, including a 10 pt win over the Cats in last year’s final series. The underdog tag suits them too, they’re 15-0 as a betting underdog. I think Geelong have had a soft schedule coming into the finals after playing the Tigers and Bombers, which may not be the best form guide.

Brisbane Lions +6.5 = $1.90

SGM

Brisbane’s eight-game winning streak in Victoria sets a strong platform to take the start, while Hugh McCluggage’s anytime scoring form and Oliver Dempsey’s reliable goal output at the ‘G add attacking legs with upside. A live underdog plus two proven anytime goal scorers builds a juicy multi.

Brisbane Lions +6.5 / Hugh McCluggage Anytime Goalscorer / Oliver Dempsey Anytime Goalscorer = $8.50

GWS Giants (5th) vs Hawthorn (8th)

The Giants earned a home final with a strong 16-7 record, including 8 wins at home and 8 on the road. They’ve hit some good form lately with three straight victories and four wins from their last five. Last round they got past St Kilda at Sydney Showgrounds by 11 points, piling on 15 goals with Toby Greene leading the charge up forward with four majors. Aaron Cadman (44 goals) and Jesse Hogan (43 goals) have also been key targets all season. Through the midfield, Tom Green (averaging 29.5 disposals), Lachie Whitfield (28.3), and Finn Callaghan (28.1) continue to rack up the ball, with Whitfield and Ash both cracking 30+ touches last week. The Giants are ranked 4th in the comp for disposals and 5th for goals, so they’re a dangerous side when they get their game going, though clearances remain their weak spot at 15th. With their stars in form and plenty of momentum, they’ll fancy their chances against the Hawks.

The Hawks take on the Giants this week sitting 8th on the ladder with a 15-8 record. They’ve been almost unbeatable at home with a 10-1 record, though their away form has been patchier at 5-7. Last round they went down to the Lions at the Gabba by 10 points in a tight contest, with Karl Amon racking up 34 disposals and Mabior Chol chipping in with three goals. Jack Gunston has been their main target all year, leading the goalkicking with 62 majors. Stat-wise, the Hawks are tough around the ball, ranked 5th in both disposals and tackles, and they’ve won three of their last five to stay in the hunt. With strong midfield numbers and plenty of firepower up forward, they’ll be looking to bounce back hard against the Giants.

Stadium Record

In their last 10 games at the Sydney Showgrounds, GWS hold a 8-2 record. Hawthorn are 0-8 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the Giants hold a 3-2 record against the Hawks.

Best Bet

The Giants should be tough to beat on their home turf as the trends are against the Hawks. They’ve never won at this venue in 8 attempts and it will be even tougher in a final. Whereas, the Giants are 8-2 in their last 10 home games at the Sydney Showgrounds and that home ground advantage should be tough to back against.

Greater Western Sydney Giants = $1.77

SGM

Six straight head-to-head unders suggest another grind, and GWS’ strong first-half profile in Week 1 Finals day games lines up with the market trend of home teams covering against Hawthorn. Back a slower total, Giants to edge the line, and to be in front at the main break.

Under 169.5 pts / GWS -3.5 / GWS HT Lead = $4.50

Fremantle (6th) vs Gold Coast Suns (7th)

The Dockers head into their elimination final clash with the Suns sitting 6th on the ladder and locked in for a home final after a strong 16-7 season. They’ve been solid both at home (8-3) and away (8-4), and their recent form has been impressive with four wins from their last five. Last round they took down the Bulldogs by 15 points at Docklands, piling on 17 goals with Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss, and Patrick Voss all booting three each. Treacy has been their main man up forward this year with 42 goals. While the Dockers do struggle in the disposal count, ranking 16th in the comp, their scoring power has been on full display. With momentum on their side and a finals spot secured, they’ll be tough to beat against the Suns.

The Suns are gearing up for their first ever finals campaign, finishing the season in 7th spot with a 15-8 record. They’ve been strong at home with a 9-2 record, while splitting their away games 6-6. Last week they absolutely smashed Essendon at Carrara, winning by 95 points and piling on 23 goals. Ben King was unstoppable with seven majors to take his season tally to 69, while Noah Anderson (34 disposals and 3 goals) and Matt Rowell (31 disposals and 2 goals) dominated through the middle. Anderson’s been one of the league’s top ball winners all year, averaging 30.2 touches per game. Stat-wise, the Suns are elite in attack and around the contest — ranked 1st for inside 50s, 4th for goals, and 4th for clearances. With their midfield firing and King in hot form, they’re heading into their showdown with the Dockers full of confidence and plenty of momentum.

Stadium Record

Fremantle are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. Gold Coast are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

The Dockers are 3-2 against the Suns in the last 5.

Best Bet

The Suns make the finals for the first time and have to travel, which is not something they are good at. They’re 1-16 ATS an away underdog and have lost their last 8 games in WA as an underdog too. The Dockers have a good record in finals week 1, winnning 5 of their last 6 by the 1-39 margin. I don’t see them blowing out the Suns so a comfortable 1-39 margin presents good value.

Fremantle 1-39 = $2.15

SGM

With eight of the last nine Dockers v Suns clashes landing under and Gold Coast struggling to cover as an away underdog (16 of its last 17), this build leans into a low-tempo game with Fremantle controlling early. Under 163.5 pairs neatly with Freo -10.5 and a HT lead for a tightly correlated same-game multi at a value price.

Under 163.5 pts / Fremantle -10.5 / Fremantle HT Lead = $4.20

It’s the last round of the AFL regular season and spots in the top 8 are still up for grabs. Here is a preview of every game this weekend, starting with a rivalry matchup between the Bombers and Blues at the MCG on Thursday night.

Essendon (15th) vs Carlton (12th)

The Bombers come into this clash with the Blues in a real slump, sitting 15th on the ladder and riding an 11-game losing streak. They’ve only managed six wins all season, with a 4-6 record at home and a tough 2-9 on the road. Last week was another heartbreaker, going down by just two points to the Saints at Docklands. Despite the struggles, there were some standouts — Mason Redman racked up 36 disposals, Andrew McGrath added 35, and Liam McMahon slotted three goals. The Bombers actually shine when it comes to ball use, ranking 3rd in the AFL for disposals, but their weaknesses are holding them back — they sit near the bottom for clearances, goals kicked, and inside 50 entries. They’ll need to tidy up those areas fast if they want to stop the slide against a tough Blues outfit.

The Blues head into this matchup with the Bombers sitting 12th on the ladder, holding an 8-14 record for the season. They’ve been a bit up and down, going 2-3 across their last five, but they’re coming off a huge 54-point win over Port Adelaide at Docklands where they piled on 18 goals. Harry McKay was dominant up forward with seven majors, while George Hewett was everywhere with 35 touches. The Blues have been solid at home with a 5-7 record, though their away form has struggled at 3-7. One of their big strengths is their pressure — they rank 4th in the AFL for tackling, which is a key part of their game. With a win already under their belt last week, they’ll be looking to build on that momentum against the Bombers.

Stadium Record

Essendon are 3-6 (1 draws) in their last 10 games at this venue. Carlton are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Blues have won 7 games against the Bombers.

Best Bet

Carlton should get the job done against the injury ravaged Bombers but you never know which Carlton side is going to turn up. So I’ll stick with the safer Under bet, which is 6-0 when the Blues play on Thursday night footy.

Under 166.5 = $1.87

Same Game Multi

Flynn Young kicked 2 goals last week and has a good chance of kicking a few more against the struggling Bombers. For Essendon, Archie Perkins also bagged 2 goals last round and has 4 goals in his last 4 games.

Under 166.5 / Flynn Young Anytime Goalscorer / Archie Perkins Anytime Goalscorer = $6.50

Collingwood (4th) vs Melbourne (14th)

The Magpies take on the Demons looking to snap out of a rough patch, having lost their last three and only managing one win from their past five. Despite sitting 4th on the ladder with a solid 15-7 record, recent form has been shaky, highlighted by a narrow three-point loss to the Crows at Adelaide Oval last week. They’ve been strong at home with an 8-3 record and reliable on the road at 7-4, so the foundations are there. The Pies bring plenty of pressure — they lead the AFL in tackling — but they’ve struggled in a couple of key areas, ranking just 14th for both clearances and disposals. With 15 wins already on the board, they’ll be desperate to steady the ship and bounce back against Melbourne.

The Demons come into this clash with the Magpies sitting 14th on the ladder and struggling to find consistency, with a 7-15 record for the season. They’ve only picked up one win from their last five games and are currently on a two-game losing streak, their most recent outing a 36-point defeat to the Hawks at the MCG. Christian Salem was a standout with 30 touches, but overall the Demons couldn’t keep up. Their home record sits at 5-7, while they’ve really struggled on the road with just two wins from 10 games. One of their big issues this year has been tackling pressure, ranking 14th in the league, and it’s an area they’ll need to lift in if they’re any chance of turning things around against the Pies.

Stadium Record

Collingwood are 6-4 in their last 10 games at MCG. Melbourne are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Magpies hold a 8-2 record.

Best Bet

The Pies need a win before the finals and they are 8-2 against the Dees, who are playing for pride.

Collingwood -22.5 = $1.90

Port Adelaide (13th) vs Gold Coast Suns (9th)

The Power head into their matchup with the Suns in a tough spot, sitting 13th on the ladder with an 8-14 record and riding a five-game losing streak. They’ve dropped all of their last five, including a heavy 54-point defeat to the Blues at Docklands where Jack Whitlock was one of the few positives, kicking three goals. At home they’ve been serviceable with a 6-5 record, but their away form has been poor at 2-9. Statistically, they’ve struggled to hit the scoreboard and find enough of the ball, ranking 15th in the AFL for both goals kicked and disposals. With confidence low and the season slipping away, the Power will be desperate to turn things around against the Suns.

The Suns head into this clash with the Power sitting just outside the top eight in 9th spot, holding a strong 14-7 record for the season. They’ve been impressive at home with an 8-2 record and solid enough on the road at 6-5, though they’re coming off a 35-point loss to the Giants at Carrara. Noah Anderson was a standout in that game with 32 touches. Statistically, the Suns are one of the more dangerous sides in the comp — they rank 1st for inside 50s, 4th for both clearances and goals kicked, and 5th for tackling. With three wins from their last five, they’ll be eager to bounce back quickly and keep their finals push on track against a struggling Power outfit.

Stadium Record

Port Adelaide are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Gold Coast are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

Since 2010, the Power are 14-2 against the Suns.

Best Bet

The Over has gone 4-0 in the Power’s last 4 games and I think the Suns will be able to kick 100+ pts.

Over 170.5 pts = $1.87

North Melbourne (16th) vs Adelaide Crows (1st)

The Kangaroos head into their clash with the Crows sitting 16th on the ladder with a 5-16 record, but they’ll take some confidence from last week’s big 48-point win over Richmond at Bellerive Oval where they piled on 20 goals. It was a breakout performance with Harry Sheezel racking up a massive 54 disposals, Luke Davies-Uniacke collecting 40, Luke Parker adding 30, while Paul Curtis kicked five goals and Cooper Trembath chipped in with three. Despite their struggles this year, the Roos have shown some strength around stoppages, ranking 3rd in the AFL for clearances, though they’ve really battled getting the ball inside 50, sitting 17th in that area. Their home record stands at 3-1-7, while they’ve only managed two wins from 11 away games. With just one win in their last five, they’ll be hoping last week’s result sparks some late-season momentum.

The Crows head into their clash with the Kangaroos flying at the top of the ladder, sitting 1st with a dominant 17-5 record and riding an eight-game winning streak. They’ve been almost unbeatable at home with an 11-1 record and solid enough away at 6-4. Last week they edged out Collingwood in a tight one at Adelaide Oval, getting over the line by three points while slotting nine goals. Statistically, the Crows are one of the most well-rounded sides in the comp — they rank 2nd for tackling, 3rd for goals kicked, 5th for clearances, and 5th for inside 50s. With five straight wins behind them and their confidence sky-high, they’ll be looking to keep their top spot secure with another strong showing against North Melbourne.

Stadium Record

North Melbourne are 1-9 in their last 10 games at Marvel. Adelaide are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Crows are 8-2 against the Kangaroos.

Best Bet

The Crows may rest players but I still like the Over against the Roos. It’s 7-1 when the Crows are at Marvel and the Kangaroos are coming off scoring 130+ pts.

Over 178.5 pts = $1.87

Richmond (17th) vs Geelong Cats (2nd)

The Tigers head into their clash with the Cats sitting 17th on the ladder with a tough 5-17 record and coming off a heavy 48-point loss to the Kangaroos at Bellerive Oval. Thomas Lynch and Seth Campbell both kicked three goals in that game, but it wasn’t enough to stop the slide as the Tigers slumped to their fourth straight defeat. Their home form hasn’t been great at 4-7, and it’s been even worse on the road with just one win from 11. Statistically, it’s been a rough season across the board — they rank near the bottom in disposals, clearances, goals, inside 50s and tackling. With just one win from their last five, Richmond will need something special to turn things around against a much stronger Cats side.

The Cats roll into their clash with the Tigers sitting 2nd on the ladder and in red-hot form, winning their last five games to hold a 16-6 record for the season. They were too strong for the Swans in Round 23, cruising to a 43-point win at the SCG after booting 16 goals. Tyson Stengle, Shaun Mannagh, and Shannon Neale all hit the scoreboard with multiple goals, while Bailey Smith was busy through the midfield with 30 disposals. The Cats have been rock solid at home with a 9-2 record and strong away at 7-4, and their stats back it up — they rank 2nd in the comp for goals, 3rd for both inside 50s and tackling. With their confidence sky-high and finals around the corner, they’ll be looking to keep their winning streak rolling against a struggling Richmond outfit.

Stadium Record

In their last 5 games at MCG, Richmond holds a 1-4 record. Geelong are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Crows are 8-2 against the Kangaroos.

Best Bet

This is a game where the 2nd placed Cats will be looking to get out of there with a win and no major injuries. The Tigers are 9-1 against the Under at the G and I don’t see them scoring 50+ pts against Geelong.

Under 175.5 = $1.87

West Coast Eagles (18th) vs Sydney Swans (10th)

The Eagles come into their clash with the Swans anchored to the bottom of the ladder, sitting 18th with just one win from 22 games this season. It’s been a nightmare run, with 12 straight losses and a winless record on the road, while their lone victory came at home where they’re 1-9. Last week was another tough outing, smashed by 94 points against the Bulldogs at Docklands, managing just five goals for the game. Statistically, the Eagles have struggled across the board — ranked last in clearances and disposals, and near the bottom for goals, inside 50s, and tackling. With only one win all year and form not improving, they’ll be up against it again when they face the Swans.

The Swans head into their clash with the Eagles sitting 10th on the ladder with an even 11-11 record, still right in the finals mix. They’ve gone 3-2 across their last five but are coming off a tough 43-point loss to the Cats at the SCG. At home they’ve been patchy with a 5-6 record, but they’ve held their own on the road at 6-5. With 11 wins and 11 losses for the season, Sydney will be desperate to bounce back quickly and steady things against a struggling Eagles side, especially with finals hopes still on the line.

Stadium Record

West Coast are 1-9 in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. Sydney are 7-3 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the Swans have won 4 games against the Eagles.

Best Bet

The Swans don’t mind the trip to Perth, covering in their last 5 and should handle the lowly Eagles.

Sydney Swans -29.5 = $1.90

GWS Giants (6th) vs St Kilda (11th)

The Giants come into this one against the Saints sitting 6th on the ladder with a strong 15-7 record and some good form behind them, winning four of their last five. They’re on a two-game winning streak after taking care of the Suns by 35 points in Round 23, booting 17 goals at Carrara. Harry Rowston was lively up forward with four goals while Max Gruzewski chipped in with three. Stat-wise, the Giants are one of the better sides with the ball, ranking 5th in the league for both disposals and goals kicked, though they’ve had their struggles around stoppages, sitting 15th for clearances. They’ve been consistent at home with a 7-3 record and even better on the road at 8-4, making them a dangerous matchup as they look to keep building momentum.

The Saints head into their clash with the Giants sitting 11th on the ladder with a 9-13 record, but they’ve found some form late in the season with four wins from their last five, including a nail-biting two-point victory over Essendon in Round 23 at Docklands. They kicked 11 goals in that one, with Jack Higgins and Cooper Sharman both finishing with three each. While their season overall has been up and down, they’re currently riding a four-game winning streak and will be hoping to keep that momentum rolling. Statistically, inside 50s have been a weakness — they sit 14th in the AFL in that area — and their home and away splits reflect the inconsistency, going 5-7 at home and 4-6 on the road. Still, with confidence high, they’ll fancy themselves to give the Giants a real contest.

Stadium Record

GWS are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue. St Kilda are 2-2 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Giants hold a 5-4 (1 draws) record.

Best Bet

GWS could be playing for a home final and the Saints are just playing for pride. St Kilda are also 0-7 against top eight teams and I think the Giants will be looking to warm up for the finals with a big win.

Greater Western Sydney Giants -31.5 = $1.90

Western Bulldogs (8th) vs Fremantle (7th)

The Bulldogs head into their clash with the Dockers sitting 8th on the ladder with a 14-8 record and riding a four-game winning streak. They were ruthless last week, smashing the Eagles by 94 points at Docklands and piling on 19 goals. Marcus Bontempelli and Bailey Dale dominated through the middle with 31 and 34 disposals, while Aaron Naughton, Rhylee West, Sam Darcy, and Sam Davidson all chipped in with three goals each. Stat-wise, the Dogs are elite in just about every key area — they lead the AFL in clearances, disposals, and goals kicked, while also ranking 4th for inside 50s. Their only real weakness has been tackling, where they sit 15th. With seven wins both home and away and their form peaking at the right time, the Bulldogs look like serious contenders as they push to lock in their finals spot.

The Dockers head into their clash with the Bulldogs sitting 7th on the ladder with a strong 15-7 record, but they’ll be looking to bounce back after a heavy 57-point loss to the Lions at Perth Stadium. Despite that setback, their recent form has been solid with four wins from their last five, and they’ve been tough to beat at home (8-3) while also holding their own on the road (7-4). Statistically, their biggest weakness has been ball use, ranking just 16th in the AFL for disposals, but they’ve still managed to rack up plenty of wins through pressure and efficiency. With finals around the corner, the Dockers will be eager to hit back hard against a Bulldogs side that’s also in form.

Stadium Record

The Bulldogs are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. Fremantle are 2-3 in their last 5 games at Docklands.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the Bulldogs hold a 3-2 record against the Dockers.

Best Bet

The winner of this game will likely make the top 8 so this is a massive clash. I think the Dogs get the job done at home but the Over is a bit more enticing, it’s 5-0 in this matchup and should be good scoring conditions under the roof.

Over 171.5 = $1.87

Brisbane Lions (3rd) vs Hawthorn (5th)

The Lions head into their clash with the Hawks sitting 3rd on the ladder with a 15-6 record, fresh off a big 57-point win over Fremantle at Perth Stadium where they booted 15 goals. Logan Morris was lively up forward with four majors, Charlie Cameron added three, and Jaspa Fletcher was busy in the middle with 32 disposals. They’ve been rock-solid away from home with a 9-1-2 record, though not quite as dominant at the Gabba at 6-4. Stat-wise, the Lions are elite around stoppages and with the footy — they rank 1st in the AFL for clearances, 2nd for disposals, and 2nd for inside 50s — but their tackling pressure is a weak spot, sitting 16th. With three wins from their last five and momentum building again, they’ll be keen to back it up against Hawthorn.

The Hawks come into their clash with the Lions in strong form, sitting 5th on the ladder with a 15-7 record and four wins from their last five. They were impressive last week, knocking off Melbourne by 36 points at the MCG after kicking 13 goals, with Jack Gunston turning back the clock with seven majors and Dylan Moore racking up 32 touches. At home they’ve been almost unbeatable with a 10-1 record, while their away form sits at 5-6. Statistically, the Hawks are one of the better ball-winning sides in the comp, ranking 4th for disposals, and with two straight wins under their belt, they’ll be looking to carry that momentum into a huge test against Brisbane.

Stadium Record

Brisbane are 3-2 in their last 5 games at Gabba. Hawthorn are 1-2 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the Hawks have won 4 games against the Lions.

Best Bet

Huge game for both sides and a home final could be up for grabs so I can see a close contest. Brisbane haven’t been great at home this year and the underdog is 5-0 when these two sides meet.

Hawthorn +7.5 = $1.90

Gold Coast Suns (9th) vs Essendon (15th)

The Suns went down in a nail-biter on Friday night, losing 71-67 against the Power. They were dominated in the midfield as Anderson and Rowell had quiet games for their standards. Ben King and Ben Long both kicked 3 goals but it just wasn’t enough against Port, who were highly motivated in Boak’s last game. Now it means the Suns must win on Wednesday night to reach the AFL finals for the very first time. Luckily, I think they have an easy matchup against the injury riddled Bombers who will be looking forward to the offseason. It’s also on the Gold Coast, where the Suns have won 4 of their last 5 games.  

For the Bombers, they sit 15th on the ladder and they come off a 34 pt loss against the Blues in what has been a tough season for them. Injuries to key players have been the main story. However, they have blooded a lot of youngsters which should help them rebuild in the future. They head to the Gold Coast for the last game of the season and will be looking to spoil the party. However, they haven’t won since R11 against the Tigers and I don’t see that streak ending on Wednesday night. 

Stadium Record

Gold Coast are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. Essendon are 3-6 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

The Suns are 3-2 against the Bombers in the last 5.

Best Bet

It’s a must win game for the Suns and I think they get the job done in front of their home fans. But I don’t see the Bombers getting blown out, they have some key players back in the lineup and have a decent record against the Suns. So I think the 1-39 margin offers nice value for the home side.

Gold Coast Suns 1-39 = $2.75

Just 2 more weeks until the finals and the top 8 is still yet to be confirmed so it’s a big weekend for some teams. Thursday night footy kicks off with the Bombers and Saints at Marvel. Let’s see if Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera can keep his 30+ disposal streak going.

Essendon (15th) vs St Kilda (11th)

The Bombers have had a tough season, sitting 15th on the ladder with a 6-14 record and coming into this clash on a 10-game losing streak. They’ve struggled both home (4-5) and away (2-9), and their recent form hasn’t been much better with five straight losses, including a 109-65 defeat to the Cats at Kardinia Park last week. While they’ve shown they can rack up possessions – ranking 3rd in the AFL for disposals – the Bombers have had major issues converting that into scoreboard pressure, ranking 16th for goals kicked and clearances, and 15th for inside 50 entries. Last week, Archie Roberts was a standout with 33 disposals, while Liam McMahon chipped in four goals, but they’ll need much more across the board to trouble the Saints.

The Saints come into this one in decent form, sitting 11th on the ladder with an 8-13 record and riding a three-game winning streak. They’ve been a bit hit-and-miss at home (5-7) and away (3-6) this season, but recent results have been promising, winning three of their last five. Last week, they edged out Richmond by four points at the MCG, slotting eight goals in a gritty contest. Ball-winners Jack Sinclair (30 disposals), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (33), and Marcus Windhager (32) led the charge, although the Saints still struggle getting the ball inside 50, ranking 14th in the AFL for that stat. If they can tidy up their forward entries, they’ll fancy their chances against the Bombers.

Stadium Record

Essendon are 3-7 in their last 10 games at Marvel. St Kilda are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.

Best Bet

Both sides are out of the finals race so hopefully they play attractive footy. The Over is 5-1 in the Saints last 6 at Marvel so let’s hope they go all out attack.

Over 168.5 = $1.87

Same Game Multi

The Saints are looking for a 4th straight win and I think they get the job done against the injury riddled Bombers who have lost 10 straight. Wanganeen-Milera has collected 30+ touches in 4 straight games and I don’t see him slowing down against the young Bombers.

Over 168.5 pts / Saints Win / Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera 30+ Disposals = $3.10

Fremantle (4th) vs Brisbane Lions (5th)

The Dockers are flying at the moment, sitting 4th on the ladder with a 15-6 record and riding a five-game winning streak. They’ve been tough to beat both at home (8-2) and on the road (7-4), and last week they got the job done against Port Adelaide, winning by six points at Adelaide Oval after booting 13 goals. Patrick Voss was lively up forward with three majors, and while the Dockers don’t rack up huge disposal numbers – ranking 16th in the AFL in that stat – they’re making the most of their opportunities and finding ways to win. With their current form, they’ll be full of confidence heading into this clash with the Lions.

The Lions sit 5th on the ladder with a strong 14-6 record and have been a real force on the road this season, going 8-1-2 away from home. They’re one of the AFL’s best when it comes to winning the ball, ranking 1st for clearances, 2nd for disposals, and 2nd for inside 50 entries, which makes them dangerous against any side. That said, tackling pressure has been a weakness, with the Lions sitting 14th in that area. They’re coming off a narrow two-point loss to the Swans at the Gabba, with Josh Dunkley (31 disposals), Hugh McCluggage (30), and Will Ashcroft (31) all finding plenty of the footy, while Logan Morris chipped in three goals. Despite dropping that last game, their recent 3-2 run and overall form suggests they’ll be right in the mix against the Dockers.

Stadium Record

Fremantle are 9-1 in their last 10 games at this venue. Brisbane are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Lions are 7-3 against the Dockers.

Best Bet

The Lions are a good bounce back team and love an underdog tag, having covered in their last 14 as underdogs. They also step up against top 4 teams and I think Freo were below their best last week against the Power.

Brisbane Lions +3.5 = $1.90

Gold Coast Suns (6th) vs GWS Giants (8th)

The Suns are enjoying a strong season, sitting 6th on the ladder with a 14-6 record and coming into this clash on a three-game winning streak. They’ve been dominant at home (8-1) and solid on the road (6-5), and last week they knocked over Carlton by 19 points at Docklands, slotting 13 goals. Ben King was on fire with six majors, Ben Long added three, and Matthew Rowell racked up 30 disposals in a standout performance. Statistically, the Suns are one of the league’s most dangerous outfits – ranked 1st for inside 50 entries, 3rd for clearances, 4th for goals kicked, and 5th for tackles – making them a tough proposition for the Giants this week.

The Giants are sitting 8th on the ladder with a 14-7 record and head into this clash having won four of their last five. They’re coming off a big 54-point win over North Melbourne at Manuka Oval, where they piled on 20 goals. Callum M. Brown was the standout up forward with five majors, while Aaron Cadman (4), Toby Greene (3), and Jake Stringer (3) all hit the scoreboard, and Finn Callaghan led the disposals with 31. The Giants are one of the AFL’s best ball-using sides, ranking 4th for disposals and 5th for goals kicked, but clearances remain an issue with the side sitting 14th in that category. With solid records both at home (7-3) and away (7-4), they’ll back themselves to challenge the Suns.

Stadium Record

Gold Coast are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. GWS are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Giants have won 9 games against the Suns.

Best Bet

Day conditions should be great for attacking footy and the Over is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 day games.

Over 176.5 = $1.87

Carlton (14th) vs Port Adelaide (12th)

The Blues have had a rough run this season, sitting 14th on the ladder with a 7-14 record and currently on a three-game losing streak. They’ve struggled to find consistency both at home (4-7) and on the road (3-7), and last week they went down to the Suns by 19 points at Docklands. While their tackling pressure is a clear strength – ranked 2nd in the AFL – they’ve had trouble converting opportunities, sitting 14th for goals kicked. Harry McKay and Francis Evans were among the few bright spots last round, booting three and four goals respectively, but they’ll need a more complete performance to challenge the Power.

The Power sit 12th on the ladder with an 8-13 record but come into this one on a four-game losing streak. They’ve been much better at home (6-5) than on the road (2-8) and are coming off a narrow six-point defeat to the Dockers at Adelaide Oval. Scoring and ball use have been problem areas, with the Power ranking 15th in the AFL for both disposals and goals kicked. With just one win from their last five, they’ll be desperate to turn things around against the Blues and keep their season from slipping further away.

Stadium Record

Carlton are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. Port Adelaide are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Marvel.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Power are 7-3 against the Blues.

Best Bet

Port have been decent recently without winning and Carlton have pretty much checked out. The Underdog is 4-0 in the Blues last 4 and they’re 0-6 at Marvel.

Port Adelaide +12.5 = $1.90

Hawthorn (7th) vs Melbourne (13th)

The Hawks are sitting 7th on the ladder with a 14-7 record and have been rock solid at home this season, winning nine of ten games. They’re coming off a massive 64-point demolition of Collingwood at the MCG, where they booted 17 goals. Jack Gunston led the way with four majors, while Mabior Chol and Lloyd Meek chipped in three each. Ranked 5th in the AFL for disposals, the Hawks know how to find the footy, and with three wins from their last five, they’ll head into this clash with the Demons full of confidence.

The Demons have had a tough year, sitting 13th on the ladder with a 7-14 record and just two wins from their last five games. They’ve struggled away from home (2-7) and aren’t much better at the MCG (5-7), and tackling pressure has been a clear weakness, ranking 15th in the AFL. Last week, they went down to the Bulldogs by six points at the ‘G in a tight contest. With 14 losses for the season and coming off another narrow defeat, they’ll need to lift if they’re going to trouble the in-form Hawks.

Stadium Record

Hawthorn are 7-3 in their last 10 games at MCG. Melbourne are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

The Demons are 4-1 against the Hawks in the last 5 meetings.

Best Bet

The Under has a solid 8-0 record when the Hawks are at the MCG and I think their defence will test the Dees.

Under 165.5 = $1.85

Adelaide Crows (1st) vs Collingwood (3rd)

The Crows are flying at the moment, sitting on top of the ladder with a 16-5 record and riding a seven-game winning streak. They’ve been almost unbeatable at home (10-1) and strong on the road (6-4), and last week they edged out West Coast by nine points at Perth Stadium, kicking 13 goals. Riley Thilthorpe and Luke Pedlar both slotted three majors in the win. Statistically, the Crows are a powerhouse – ranked 5th for clearances, 3rd for goals kicked, 4th for inside 50s, and 3rd for tackles – and with five straight wins to close out their last five, they’ll be full of confidence heading into the clash with the Magpies.

The Magpies are still sitting 3rd on the ladder with a 15-6 record, but their form has dipped with just one win from their last five games and back-to-back losses. They were well beaten by the Hawks last week at the MCG, going down 110-46, and will be looking for a big response. They’ve been strong both at home (8-3) and away (7-3) this season, and their tackling pressure is elite, ranked 1st in the AFL. However, clearances and disposals have been problem areas, with the Pies sitting 14th in both categories. They’ll need to tidy those up if they’re going to match it with the ladder-leading Crows.

Stadium Record

Adelaide are 9-1 in their last 10 games at this venue. Collingwood are 9-4 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Magpies are 9-0 (1 draw) against the Crows.

Best Bet

If the Pies can sort out their backline issues, I think they can give the Crows a scare. They love playing in Adelaide at night with an 6-0 ATS record and have won 9 straight over the Crows.

Collingwood +16.5 = $1.90

North Melbourne (17th) vs Richmond (16th)

The Kangaroos have had a rough season, sitting 17th on the ladder with a 4-16 record and on a seven-game losing streak. They’ve only managed two wins at home and two on the road, and last week they went down to the Giants by 54 points at Manuka Oval, conceding 20 goals. Jack Darling and Cooper Trembath each kicked three majors, while Harry Sheezel was busy with 31 disposals, but it wasn’t enough to turn things around. The Roos are strong at clearances, ranked 4th in the AFL, but they’ve really struggled getting the ball inside 50, sitting 17th in that stat. They’ll need a lift in attack if they’re going to trouble the Tigers.

The Tigers are sitting 16th on the ladder with a 5-16 record and head into this clash on a three-game losing streak. They’ve struggled badly on the road (1-9) and haven’t been much better at home (4-7). Last week, they went down to the Saints by just four points at the MCG in a tight one. Statistically, it’s been a tough year, with the Tigers ranking near the bottom of the AFL in almost every key area – 17th for clearances and disposals, and dead last for goals kicked, inside 50s, and tackles. With only two wins from their last five games, they’ll need a huge lift to get past the Roos.

Stadium Record

North Melbourne are 1-8 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at Bellerive Oval. Richmond are 0-2 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.

Best Bet

This should be a low scoring clash and the Under is 8-1 in the last 9.

Under 166.5 = $1.87

Sydney Swans (10th) vs Geelong Cats (2nd)

The Swans are sitting 10th on the ladder with an 11-10 record and have hit some good form, winning four of their last five and their past two on the trot. They’ve been pretty balanced this year with a 5-5 home record and 6-5 on the road, and last week they pulled off a thrilling two-point win over the Lions at the Gabba, slotting 13 goals. Isaac Heeney was the star of the show with five majors, and with their confidence building, the Swans will be looking to keep the momentum going against the Cats.

The Cats are in hot form, sitting 2nd on the ladder with a 15-6 record and riding a four-game winning streak. They’ve been strong both at home (9-2) and away (6-4), and last week they made light work of Essendon at Kardinia Park, winning by 44 points after kicking 15 goals. Jeremy Cameron led the way with four majors, while Shannon Neale and Shaun Mannagh added three each, and Bailey Smith racked up 31 disposals. Statistically, the Cats are one of the league’s most dangerous sides – ranked 2nd for goals kicked, 3rd for inside 50s, and 4th for tackles – making them a tough opponent for the Swans this week.

Stadium Record

Sydney are 5-5 in their last 10 games at SCG. Geelong are 4-5 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the head to head is squared at 2-2 (1 draw).

Best Bet

Sydney have found form with Gulden back and Heeney kicking bags for fun. Geelong are also kicking plenty of points behind Cameron so I like the Over at the SCG.

Over 169.5 = $1.80

Western Bulldogs (9th) vs West Coast Eagles (18th)

The Bulldogs are sitting 9th on the ladder with a 13-8 record and come into this clash on a three-game winning streak. They’ve been solid both home (6-4) and away (7-4), and last week they edged out Melbourne by six points at the MCG, booting 15 goals. Aaron Naughton was the main target up forward with five majors, while Marcus Bontempelli (33 disposals), Ed Richards (31), and Bailey Dale (30) were prolific with the footy. Statistically, the Dogs are a powerhouse – ranked 1st in the AFL for disposals and goals kicked, 2nd for clearances, and 5th for inside 50s – though tackling pressure remains a weakness, sitting 15th in that area. With their current form, they’ll back themselves to handle the Eagles.

It’s been a nightmare season for the Eagles, who sit last on the ladder with a 1-20 record and are stuck in an 11-game losing streak. They haven’t managed a win on the road (0-11) and have only one victory at home (1-9), with last week bringing a narrow nine-point loss to the Crows at Perth Stadium. Liam Ryan and Jobe Shanahan each kicked three goals, but the side continues to struggle across the board – ranked last in the AFL for clearances and disposals, and near the bottom for goals kicked, inside 50s, and tackles. With numbers like that, they face a huge challenge trying to match it with the in-form Bulldogs.

Stadium Record

The Bulldogs are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Marvel. West Coast are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the Bulldogs hold a 4-1 record against the Eagles.

Best Bet

The Doggies love a fast paced and high scoring game and the Eagles were decent against the Crows last week. So take the Over, which is 5-1 when the Dogs are at Marvel.

Over 178.5 pts = $1.85

Only 3 rounds remain and the AFL top 8 is far from settled. Round 22 starts with a massive clash between the Hawks and Pies at the G on Thursday night footy.

Hawthorn (7th) vs Collingwood (2nd)

The Hawks are ticking along with a 13–7 record but just came unstuck at Adelaide Oval, going down 101–87 to the Crows despite Jack Gunston nabbing four majors. They’ve been a fortress at home (8–1) but only scrapped together five wins on the road (5–6), and they’re sitting seventh on the ladder. Their engine room is solid – they’re fourth in the AFL for disposals and third for tackling – so if they can bottle that intensity for four quarters, they’ll fancy their chances against the Magpies. With three wins in their last five, expect Hawthorn to bounce back hard in this one, especially with a top 8 spot on the line.

Steele Sidebottom hits the 350-game milestone as the Pies look to bounce back from a 27-point loss to the Lions at the MCG. Collingwood sit second on the ladder at 15–5, and they’ve been deadly on the road (7–2) as well as at home (8–3). They’re one of the best for both goals (fifth in the AFL) and tackling (fourth), even if they’ve stumbled just once lately. With two wins in their last five and a star veteran celebrating a huge career mark, expect Collingwood to bring the heat against the Hawks at the G.

Stadium Record

Hawthorn are 7-3 in their last 10 games at MCG. In their last 10 games at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Collingwood hold a 7-3 record.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Hawks hold a 6-4 record.

Best Bet

I’m going with the omen bet as Sidebottom brings up 350 games and he loves playing the Hawks. He’s picked up 27 or more touches in his last 7 against them. He’s also beaten 20+ in his last 2 games as well.

Steele Sidebottom 20+ Disposals = $1.60

Same Game Multi

In his pursuit of a first Brownlow, Nick Daicos is on fire at the moment and has been hitting the scoreboard too. He’s kicked a goal in his last 8 games when the Pies are at home. I also like the Under, it’s 7-0 in the Hawks last 7 games at the MCG and Jeremy Howe’s return should fix up the Pies backline.

Under 161.5 pts / Sidebottom 20+ Disposals / Nick Daicos Anytime Goalscorer = $5.40

Geelong Cats (4th) vs Essendon (15th)

The Cats are on a tear right now – three wins in a row and fresh off that 88-point demolition of Port Adelaide at Kardinia Park (they piled on 23 goals, with Jeremy Cameron bagging six, Jack Martin four as sub and Shannon Neale three). Sitting fourth at 14–6, they’ve been tough both home (8–2) and away (6–4), and their engine room is firing, ranking second in the AFL for goals, fifth for inside-50s and fifth for tackles. Heading into this one against the Bombers, expect Geelong’s firepower and pressure to test Essendon all over the ground.

The Bombers are in a world of pain, sitting 15th on 6–13 and stuck on a nine-game losing skid after going down 68–54 to the Swans at the SCG. They’ve been solid at disposal (top of the AFL for handballs and kicks), but everything else has let them down – 16th for clearances and goals, and 15th for inside-50s. They’ve only won twice away (2–8) and are just 4–5 at home, so facing a rampaging Cats outfit is going to be a massive challenge. Expect Essendon to try and scrap it out through the middle, but unless they find another gear, Geelong’s firepower will be too much.

Stadium Record

Geelong are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue. Essendon are 1-2 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Cats hold a 8-2 record against the Bombers.

Best Bet

I think the Cats are trying to get Cameron to 100 goals and this is another great matchup. He’s kicked 6 goals in his last 2 and I can see him getting near 10+ goals again.

Jeremy Cameron 6+ Goals = $2.20

Richmond (16th) vs St Kilda (14th)

The Tigers are having a horror year at 5–15, and that 107–23 drubbing by the Suns at Carrara shows just how rough it’s been. They’ve lost two straight and only picked up two wins in their last five, with home form sitting at 4–6 and an abysmal 1–9 on the road. Richmond are dead last in clearances, disposals, goals and tackles, so you’d back the Saints to boss the midfield and pile on points. Unless the Tigers can somehow shake off these woes, this one’s a tall order for them.

The Saints have a bit of work to do, but they’ve found some form with back-to-back wins after downing North Melbourne by nine points at Docklands (11 goals on the board). Sitting 14th at 7–13, they’ve been solid enough at home (5–7) but shaky away (2–6), and their inside-50 entries have been a concern (14th in the AFL). With two wins in their last five and a chance to extend that streak, look for St Kilda to use that momentum and pressure the Tigers, especially in front of their home crowd.

Stadium Record

Richmond are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. St Kilda are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

The Saints are 4-1 against the Tigers in the last 5 meetings.

Best Bet

The Under is 8-1 in the Tigers last 9 at the G and this should be low scoring too.

Under 160.5 = $1.87

Brisbane Lions (3rd) vs Sydney Swans (10th)

The Lions are riding high after thumping Collingwood by 27 points at the MCG in Round 21, kicking 14 goals (shoutout to Logan Morris for bagging six and Henry Smith with three). They sit third on the ladder at 14–5, and they’ve been almost unbeatable on the road (8–1–2) and solid at home (6–3). Their midfield has been a machine – top of the AFL for clearances and second for disposals – and they’ve been strong getting it inside 50 (fourth), though they’ve had some trouble sticking tackles (16th). With four wins in their last five and confidence sky-high, Brisbane will look to keep the momentum rolling against the Swans.

The Swans have just snapped a rough patch with a 14-point win over Essendon at the SCG, kicking nine goals to get back on track. They’re sitting 10th on a 10–10 record, splitting home and away at 5–5 and winning four of their last five. While they’ve shown they can grind out results, their disposal game has been shaky – 16th in the AFL – which could get exposed against the Lions’ dominant midfield. 

Stadium Record

Brisbane are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Sydney are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Lions hold a 7-3 record.

Best Bet

The key in this one will be the midfield battle and Sydney have a lot of talent with Gulden, Heeney and Warner. So I think they keep this under a 4 goal margin. They’ll want some revenge after the Grand Final defeat and almost beat the Lions at the Gabba last year.

Sydney Swans +24.5 = $1.90

Carlton (13th) vs Gold Coast Suns (6th)

The Blues have hit a rough patch, dropping two in a row after getting beaten 94–67 by the Dockers at Perth Stadium. Sitting 13th on a 7–13 record, they’ve only managed one win in their last five and have struggled to hit the scoreboard – 14th in the AFL for goals kicked. On the bright side, they’re hard at the contest, sitting fourth for clearances and second for tackles. With a 4–6 home record and 3–7 away, they’ll need to lean on that midfield grit to slow down the Suns if they want to climb off the bottom.

The Suns are on a roll, sitting sixth on the ladder at 13–6 and fresh off an 84-point demolition of Richmond at Carrara (16 goals in total, with Ben King bagging four and Bailey Humphrey three). They’ve won four of their last five and are particularly tough to beat at home (8–1), though they’ve been only even on the road (5–5). Their engine room is elite – second in the AFL for clearances, third for inside-50s and fourth for goals kicked – so expect them to dominate the contest and pile on the pressure against a Blues side that’s been scrambling lately.

Stadium Record

Carlton are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue. Gold Coast are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

The Blues are 3-2 against the Suns in the last 5.

Best Bet

The Under is 4-0 when these two play at night and the Suns aren’t the best travelling team in the AFL.

Under 171.5 = $1.87

Port Adelaide (11th) vs Fremantle (5th)

The Power have had a rough season at 8–12, sitting 11th and on a three-game skid after getting thrashed 153–65 by the Cats at Kardinia Park – even Mitchell Georgiades’ three goals couldn’t stop the rout. They’ve only managed one win in their last five, have been solid at home (6–4) but dreadful on the road (2–8), and they’re struggling to win the ball (14th in disposals) or finish it off (15th in goals kicked). Going up against the Dockers, Port Adelaide will need a massive lift if they want to snap this slide.

The Dockers are flying high on a four-game winning streak, fresh off a 27-point win over Carlton at Perth Stadium where they piled on 15 goals (shoutout to Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss and Patrick Voss for bagging three each). Sitting fifth at 14–6, they’ve been tough both home (8–2) and away (6–4), though they’ve had some trouble winning the ball – 15th in disposals. Still, with four wins in their last five, expect Fremantle’s firepower and confidence to keep rolling against a Port Adelaide side that’s been struggling, especially on the road.

Stadium Record

In their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval, Port Adelaide hold a 4-6 record. Fremantle are 3-12 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the Power hold a 3-2 record against the Dockers.

Best Bet

Port has an impressive 7-0 home record against the Dockers and if they can start well, I think they can cover a 27 point margin.

Port Adelaide +27.5 = $1.90

GWS Giants (8th) vs North Melbourne (17th)

The Giants have been solid lately with four wins from five, but they hit a speed bump in their last outing at Docklands, getting thumped 132–44 by the Bulldogs. Sitting eighth on a 13–7 record, they’ve been consistent both away (7–4) and at home (6–3), yet they’ve struggled around the stoppages – 15th in clearances – which can hurt them against teams that dominate the middle. After that heavy loss, expect GWS to sharpen up through the midfield and lean on their momentum as they take on North Melbourne.

The Kangaroos are really struggling this season at 4–15, sitting rock bottom on the ladder and on a six-game losing streak after that 78–69 defeat to St Kilda at Docklands (with Nick Larkey bagging three goals). They haven’t won in their last five and have been terrible with entries inside 50 – dead last in the AFL. They’re a dismal 2–8 away and only 2–1–7 at home, so taking on a fired-up Giants side will be a tall order unless North Melbourne can find some spark.

Stadium Record

GWS are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. North Melbourne are 1-0 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

The Giants are 4-1 against the Kangaroos in the last 5.

Best Bet

North showed a bit of shinboner spirit last week against the Saints and they’re 4-0 ATS when they face the Giants away from home.

North Melbourne +49.5 = $1.90

Melbourne (12th) vs Western Bulldogs (9th)

Fresh off the bombshell news that premiership coach Simon Goodwin was shown the door this week, the Demons will look to bounce back when they take on the Bulldogs. They’re sitting 12th at 7–13 but just snapped a two-game skid with an 83-point demolition of West Coast at Docklands – 21 goals on the board, including four from Bayley Fritsch and three each from Harrison Petty and Harvey Langford. Even so, they’ve been patchy in the midfield (14th for clearances) and sloppy in the tackle (14th again), and their form on the road (2–7) has been woeful compared to the D’s more solid 5–6 at home. With only two wins in their last five, expect Melbourne to be fired up under interim leadership, but consistency will be the question against a Bulldogs side.

The Bulldogs are buzzing after that massive 88-point drubbing of the Giants at Docklands, piling on 19 goals – including five each from Aaron Naughton and Sam Darcy, plus three from Lachlan McNeil. They’ve won two in a row and sit ninth on a 12–8 record, looking good both at home (6–4) and away (6–4). Their midfield’s a well-oiled machine – third in the AFL for clearances and disposals – and they’re lethal up forward (top of the league for goals and second for inside-50s), though they could tighten up their tackling (14th). Against the Demons, look for the Dogs to keep firing at both ends of the ground and stretch their winning streak to three.

Stadium Record

Melbourne are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue. The Bulldogs are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.

Best Bet

Teams usually step up after their coach is sacked so look for the Dees to play well. But the Dogs need to win for their top 8 hopes as well. So I like the chances of the Over, it’s 7-0 in this matchup and the Doggies usually play in high scoring affairs.

Over 176.5 = $1.87

West Coast Eagles (18th) vs Adelaide Crows (1st)

The Eagles are sitting bottom with a 1–19 record and on a ten-game losing skid after getting smashed 139–56 by the Demons at Docklands. They’ve yet to win away (0–11) and are only 1–8 at home, and it’s easy to see why – they’re dead last for clearances and disposals, second-last for goals, and terrible at getting it inside 50 and sticking tackles. Taking on the Crows, West Coast will need a miracle to snap this slump unless they can somehow tighten up from the contest and find a spark up forward.

The Crows are rolling right now, cruising to a 15–5 record and riding a six-game winning streak after an impressive 14-point win over Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval where they kicked 15 goals (shoutout to Riley Thilthorpe’s four and three each from Taylor Walker and Izak Rankine). They’ve been a fortress at home (10–1) and solid on the road (5–4), and their midfield and forward work is elite – they’re top five in clearances, disposals, and goals kicked, and they lead the league for inside-50 entries and tackling. Sitting first on the ladder, Adelaide should have too much class for the Eagles, who’ve struggled all year.

Stadium Record

West Coast are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue. Adelaide are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the Crows have won 5 games against the Eagles.

Best Bet

This matchup will likely get ugly with 1st against 18th. So I think the Over is the best value, it’s 7-1 in the last 8 meetings. The Crows will likely kick most of it.

Over 173.5 pts = $1.87

The race for top 8 spots is on the line again in Round 21 and we kick off the round with a massive clash between the Dogs and Giants on Thursday night.

Western Bulldogs (9th) vs GWS Giants (6th)

The Bulldogs are riding high after absolutely smashing Essendon by 93 points in Round 20—putting through 22 goals at Docklands—and they’ll look to keep the momentum rolling against the Giants. Sitting ninth on the ladder with an 11–8 record (5–4 at home, 6–4 away), the Dogs have won one in a row and sit 3–2 over their past five outings. They’re a clearance machine (2nd in the AFL), rack up more disposals than anyone (1st), lead the league in goals kicked (1st) and inside 50s (3rd), but they’ve been a bit shaky in the tackling department (14th). Marcus Bontempelli has been everywhere—35 touches last week—while Aaron Naughton, Rhylee West and Sam Darcy combined for 16 majors, so expect the Bulldogs’ powerhouse midfield and forward line to keep firing as they chase another big win.

The Giants are flying high right now, sitting sixth on the ladder with a 13–6 record and riding a six‑game winning streak. They’ve been unstoppable recently (5–0 over their last five matches), especially at The Sydney Showgrounds where they thumped the Swans by 44 points and booted 15 goals—Jake Stringer and Aaron Cadman snagging three each. Adelaide’s midfield has been humming too, ranking fourth in disposals and fifth in goals kicked across the AFL, though they’ve struggled at the clearances end (15th). With a solid 6–3 home record and 7–3 on the road, the Giants will look to keep the momentum rolling when they face the Bulldogs.

Stadium Record

The Bulldogs are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Marvel. GWS are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Bulldogs hold a 8-2 record.

Best Bet

I don’t see the Giants having any issues travelling to Melbourne as they’ve covered the line in their last 5 away games. With a 6 game winning streak, I think they can potentially beat the Doggies, who struggle to stop forward lines like the Giants.

Greater Western Sydney Giants +12.5 = $1.90

Same Game Multi

The Over has a perfect 5-0 record when the Dogs are at Marvel and the Giants can kick 100+ pts. Toby Bedford has kicked a goal in 4 of his last 5 games and bagged 2 goals last week. So he offers nice value to hit the scoreboard.

Giants +12.5 / Over 176.5 pts / Toby Bedford Anytime Goalscorer = $6.75

Adelaide Crows (2nd) vs Hawthorn (5th)

The Crows are smashing it this season, sitting second on the ladder with a 14–5 record and riding a five‑game winning streak into their matchup with the Hawks. They’ve been near‑perfect at home (9–1) and a solid 5–4 on the road, and in Round 20 they blew Port Adelaide away by 98 points at Adelaide Oval—booting 20 goals—with Taylor Walker, Ben Keays and Riley Thilthorpe each snagging three majors and Jake Soligo piling up 35 touches. Adelaide’s attack is a real force (3rd in the AFL for goals kicked and 5th for inside‑50s), plus they’ve been relentless in the contest (3rd in tackling), so look for the Crows to keep their red‑hot form going against Hawthorn.

The Hawks have been ticking along nicely, sitting fifth on the ladder with a 13–6 record and fresh off a 24‑point win over Carlton at the ‘G, where they kicked 13 goals (Jack Gunston bagged three). They’ve been rock solid at home (8–1) and a decent 5–5 on the road, and they’ve won two on the trot, pushing their last five to 4–1. Hawthorn’s midfield is doing the hard work (ranked fifth in disposals) and their pressure game is top‑tier (fourth in tackling), so they’ll fancy their chances of taking on the red‑hot Crows and keeping the momentum rolling.

Stadium Record

Adelaide are 9-1 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. Hawthorn are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

The Hawks are 4-1 against the Crows in the last 5 meetings.

Best Bet

Another game that I think could see an upset. The Hawks have the wood over the Crows, having covered in the last 5 meetings. The key will be their defence and pressure around the ball.

Hawthorn +14.5 = $1.90

Melbourne (13th) vs West Coast Eagles (18th)

The Demons have had a tough year, sitting 13th with a 6–13 record and dropping their last two games, including a 96–90 loss to St Kilda at Docklands where Bayley Fritsch still managed three goals. They’ve struggled on the road (2–7) and been just below average at home (4–6), going 1–4 across their past five. Melbourne’s tackling has been a real sore spot (14th in the AFL), so they’ll need to tighten up defensively when they head up against the Eagles. With form and pressure both against them, the Dees will be looking for a turnaround.

The Eagles are having a horror season, sitting dead last at 1–18 and on a nine‑game losing streak heading into their clash with the Demons. They’ve yet to win away (0–10) and have only scraped together one home win (1–8), and they were thumped by the Dockers 126–77 at Perth Stadium last time out. Perth’s power has been nowhere to be seen—they’re bottom of the league for clearances, disposals, goals kicked, inside‑50s and tackling—so they’ll be desperate for any spark of form against the Dees. At this point, they just need to find something to build on.

Stadium Record

Melbourne are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. West Coast are 1-9 in their last 10 games at Marvel.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the Demons hold a 4-1 record against the Eagles.

Best Bet

This is really a nothing game as both sides are out of finals contention. So hopefully they play free flowing footy and the Over is 4-0 in this matchup.

Over 171.5 = $1.87

Gold Coast Suns (8th) vs Richmond (16th)

The Suns are buzzing after a huge 66‑point win over the Lions at Carrara—booting 20 goals—and they’ll look to keep the good times rolling against the Tigers. Sitting eighth with a 12–6 record (7–1 at home, 5–5 away), they’ve snapped a four‑game skid to start the year with a 4–1 run over their last five and are on a one‑game streak. Gold Coast’s engine room is unstoppable, ranking first in the AFL for clearances and inside‑50s, while they’re also top five for goals kicked (4th) and tackling (5th). Brayden Fiorini racked up 32 touches last time out, Noah Anderson (33), Matthew Rowell (37) and John Noble (31) were prolific, and the forwards—Ben Long (4 goals), Ben Ainsworth and Jy Farrar (3 each), plus Bailey Humphrey—were electric. Expect the Suns’ midfield grunt and scoring power to give the Tigers plenty to worry about.

The Tigers have had a horror run this year, sitting 16th with just a 5–14 record. They’ve been a bit tougher at home (4–6) but can’t buy a win on the road (1–8), and they just copped a 36‑point hiding from the Magpies at the ‘G—though Jacob Hopper still managed 33 touches. Richmond’s form has been dire across the board (bottom five in clearances, disposals, goals, inside‑50s and tackling), so they’ll need a major lift to stand a chance against the Suns’ red‑hot midfield and scoreboard. After going 2–3 over their past five, the Tigers will be desperate to find something to get them moving.

Stadium Record

Gold Coast are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Richmond are 11-3 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.

Best Bet

A massive game for the Suns to make the top 8 and their Q-Clash performance was a massive tick. I think they do it easily again but I don’t see Richmond scoring over 60 pts, which should see the Under go 5-0 when these 2 sides meet.

Under 166.5 = $1.87

Sydney Swans (10th) vs Essendon (15th)

The Swans head into their showdown with the Bombers sitting tenth on the ladder at 9–10, having dropped their last game 102–58 to the Giants at the Sydney Showgrounds despite Will Hayward snagging three goals and Errol Gulden piling on 32 touches. They’re 4–5 at home and 5–5 on the road, and while they’ve gone 3–2 over their past five, that one‑game skid is something they’ll want to shake off. Sydney’s clearance work has been solid (ranked fifth in the AFL), but they’ve really struggled to win the ball in general play—sitting 15th for disposals—so they’ll need to find more of it against the Bombers if they’re looking to tip the odds in their favour.

The Bombers are in a rut right now, sitting 15th with a 6–12 record and riding an eight‑game losing streak after getting thumped by 93 points by the Dogs at Docklands—though Zach Merrett still piled on 30 touches. They’ve been more competitive at home (4–5) than away (2–7), but have gone 0–5 over their last five and rank near the bottom for clearances (16th), goals kicked (16th) and inside‑50s (15th), despite being second in the league for disposals. Essendon will need to tighten up around the ball and find a spark if they’re going to snap this slide against the Swans.

Stadium Record

Sydney are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. Essendon are 1-10 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Swans hold a 6-4 record against the Bombers.

Best Bet

Injuries have crippled the Bombers and I don’t see them getting near the Swans on their home turf.

Sydney Swans -47.5 = $1.90

Collingwood (1st) vs Brisbane Lions (3rd)

The Magpies are sitting pretty on top of the ladder with a 15–4 record and a fresh one‑game winning streak after putting Richmond to the sword by 36 points at the ‘G in Round 20 — booting 13 goals with Josh Daicos racking up 30 touches and Nick Daicos piling on 42 of them (plus kicking three himself). They’ve been rock‑solid both home (8–2) and away (7–2), and while they’ve slipped up twice in their last five (3–2), their tackling is second to none (1st in the AFL), even if they’ve been a bit loose at the clearances (14th). Expect Collingwood’s fierce pressure game and elite contest work to put the Lions under the pump.

The Lions will be itching to bounce back after a 130–64 drubbing by the Suns at Carrara, which snapped their four‑game hot streak in an otherwise strong 4–1 run to sit third on the ladder at 13–5. They’re a juggernaut around the contest—ranked third in clearances and disposals and second for inside‑50 entries—but their tackling has let them down (16th in the AFL), so expect Collingwood to try and exploit that. Lachie Neale still piled on 36 touches and Cameron Rayner snagged three goals despite the loss, and with a solid 7–1–2 record away from home (6–3 at the Gabba), Brisbane will look to lean on their midfield grunt and scoreboard punch to get one back on the Magpies.

Stadium Record

In their last 10 games at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Collingwood holds a 8-2 record. Brisbane are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

The Magpies are 4-1 against the Lions in the last 5.

Best Bet

Brisbane were terrible last week in the Q-Clash and the trip to the MCG against the Pies is a tough one. I just don’t see Collingwood getting beaten at home with top spot on the line.

Collingwood -7.5 = $1.90

St Kilda (14th) vs North Melbourne (17th)

The Saints pulled off an epic comeback last time out, overturning the biggest fourth‑quarter deficit in AFL history to down Melbourne by six points at Docklands, kicking 15 goals in the process. They’re sitting 14th on the ladder at 6–13 (4–7 at home, 2–6 away) and finally snapped a four‑game skid, but their return over the past five is still only 1–4. Jack Sinclair was everywhere with 32 touches, while Jack Higgins and Nasiah Wanganeen‑Milera each slotted four goals (Nasiah also had 34 disposals). Despite that heroics, St Kilda’s inside‑50 work remains a worry (14th in the AFL), so they’ll need to keep that momentum going and tighten up their entries if they’re going to take on the Kangaroos and pull off another shock.

The Kangaroos have had a brutal run this season, sitting 17th with a 4–14 record and on a five‑game losing skid after getting belted by the Cats by 101 points at Docklands. They’ve been just 2–1–7 at home and 2–7 away, and they haven’t picked up a win in their last five. North’s clearances have been surprisingly strong (third in the AFL), but their inside‑50 work is woeful (17th), so even despite Luke Parker’s 31 touches, Cameron Zurhaar’s three goals and Colby McKercher’s 32 disposals last week, they’ll need a massive lift in the midfield and forward setup if they’re going to turn things around against St Kilda.

Stadium Record

St Kilda are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue. North Melbourne are 2-8 in their last 10 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the Saints hold a 5-0 record against the Kangaroos.

Best Bet

A huge comeback for the Saints last week and Nasiah Wanganeen‑Milera is a star. They’re now 5-0 ATS and I think they continue the momentum against the checked-out Roos.

St Kilda -23.5 = $1.90

Geelong Cats (4th) vs Port Adelaide (11th)

Geelong have been on fire lately, cruising to a massive 101‑point win over North Melbourne in Round 20 at Docklands — booting 22 goals, with Jeremy Cameron snagging 11, Bailey Smith piling on 43 disposals and Shannon Neale kicking four. Sitting fourth on the ladder with a 13–6 record (7–2 at home and 6–4 on the road), they’ve won two in a row and are 3–2 over their past five. The Cats are a scoring juggernaut (ranked second in the AFL for goals kicked), they’re elite at getting it inside 50 (fourth) and they bring brutal pressure through the contest (second in tackling), so they’ll be licking their chops as they head to take on Port Adelaide.

The Power will be keen to bounce back after getting thumped 133–35 by the Crows at Adelaide Oval, but it’s been a tough season overall—they sit 11th with an 8–11 record and have dropped their last two, going 2–3 over the past five. Port have been pretty solid at home (6–4) but dreadful away (2–7), and while Zak Butters still piled on 34 touches last time out, their ball use has been a real issue (14th for disposals) and they’re struggling to find the big sticks (15th for goals kicked). The one positive? They’ve been fierce around the contest, ranking fifth in clearances—so if they can win the midfield battle, they might just make things interesting against a red‑hot Cats side.

Stadium Record

Geelong are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Kardinia Park. Port Adelaide are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Cats hold a 6-4 record.

Best Bet

Port have a 6-1 Unders record in interstate clashes and hopefully they can stop Cameron kicking another bag.

Under 176.5 = $1.87

Fremantle (7th) vs Carlton (12th)

The Dockers are buzzing off a big 49‑point win over the Eagles at Perth Stadium, booting 18 goals and getting big performances from Andrew Brayshaw (32 touches), Michael Frederick (4 majors) and Hayden Young, Jye Amiss and Patrick Voss (3 each). They’re sitting seventh with a 13–6 record, have picked up their third straight victory, and are 4–1 over their past five. Fremantle’s been strong both home (7–2) and away (6–4), though they’ve had a rough go finding the ball (16th in disposals). If they can lift around the contest and keep feeding that hot forward line, they’ll fancy their chances of handing the Blues another loss.

The Blues are in a bit of a slump, sitting 12th with a 7–12 record and fresh off an 85–61 loss to the Hawks at the ‘G. They’ve only managed one win in their past five and have been just 4–6 at home and 3–6 on the road. Carlton’s forward line hasn’t been firing either—they’re 14th in the AFL for goals kicked—so they’ll need to find some scoring punch if they want to take on these in‑form Dockers. Expect Fremantle to try and exploit those goal‑kicking woes when they roll into town.

Stadium Record

Fremantle are 9-1 in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. Carlton are 4-0 (1 draw) in their last 5 games at Perth Stadium.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Blues have won 7 games against the Dockers.

Best Bet

Carlton have a decent record against Freo but I think they’ve checked out for 2025. So I think the Dockers will get the job done in a low scoring affair as the Under is a perfect 5-0 when these two sides meet.

Under 158.5 = $1.87

It’s rivalry round around the AFL this week and it starts with the Hawks up against the Blues on Thursday night footy.

Hawthorn (5th) vs Carlton (12th)

The Hawks are flying high this season with 12 wins and sitting comfortably in 5th spot on the ladder. They’re coming off a strong 38-point win over Port Adelaide at York Park, where they booted 13 goals. Jack Gunston and Jarman Impey both kicked 3, while Dylan Moore racked up 32 disposals. Their recent form is solid too — winning 4 of their last 5 games and currently riding a one-game winning streak. They’ve been tough to beat at home with a 7-1 record, while their away form is evenly split at 5-5. Overall, they’re 12-6 on the season. Stat-wise, the Hawks are a tough unit — ranked 5th in the league for disposals and 3rd for tackles, showing they’re both clean with the ball and fierce without it. They’ll take on the Blues this week with momentum on their side.

The Blues haven’t had the smoothest run this season, sitting 12th on the ladder with a 7-11 record. That said, they pulled off a solid 8-point win over Melbourne at the MCG last round, kicking 12 goals, with Charlie Curnow snagging 3 and Ashton Moir slotting 4. It was a much-needed win, snapping a rough patch where they’d dropped 4 of their last 5 games. They’ve struggled to get results both home (4-6) and away (3-5), and goal-kicking has been a real issue — they’re ranked 14th in the league for goals. Still, there are some bright spots: the Blues are ranked 5th in the AFL for clearances and 4th for tackles, showing they can win the ball and apply pressure. They’ll be hoping to build on last week’s win as they face a red-hot Hawks side. It will be an emotional game for the Blues as well with Sam Docherty playing his last AFL game.

Stadium Record

Hawthorn are 7-3 in their last 10 games at MCG. Carlton are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Hawks hold a 6-4 record.

Best Bet

The Blues will hopefully stand up for Docherty but the Hawks will be tough to beat, especially down back. So I like the chances of the Under, which is 6-0 in the Hawks last 6 at the ‘G.

Under 159.5 = $1.87

Same Game Multi

I think the Blues will swing Docherty forward at some stage and he’s kicked a goal in 2 of his last 4 games. Amon has beaten 20 disposals in his last 4 games and averages 26 touches in his last 3 home games at the MCG.

Under 159.5 / Sam Docherty Anytime Goalscorer / Karl Amon 20+ Disposals = $5.25

Essendon (14th) vs Western Bulldogs (9th)

The Bombers are doing it tough this season, sitting 14th on the ladder with just 6 wins and currently stuck in a 7-game losing streak. Their latest hit came in a 48-point loss to the Giants at Docklands. They’ve struggled both home (4-4) and away (2-7), and their recent form paints a rough picture with five straight losses. Offensively, they’re finding it hard to make an impact — ranked dead last in the AFL for goals kicked, inside 50s, and clearances. But it’s not all doom and gloom: they do lead the league in disposals, showing they can control the footy when they get going. This week, they’ll try to turn things around against the Bulldogs, but they’ll need a big lift across the board to get back on track.

The Bulldogs are sitting just outside the top eight in 9th place with a 10-8 record, but they’ll be looking to bounce back after two straight losses. Last week they went down to the Lions at the Gabba by 10 points, despite a strong showing from Bailey Dale with 33 disposals and Rhylee West booting 4 goals. They’ve won 3 of their last 5 and have been fairly consistent both home and away, holding a 5-4 record in each. Stat-wise, the Bulldogs are a powerhouse in attack — ranked 1st in the AFL for clearances and goals kicked, 2nd for disposals, and 3rd for inside 50s. Tackling is one weak spot (ranked 14th), but they’re still one of the most dangerous teams with ball in hand. They’ll fancy their chances this week against a struggling Bombers outfit.

Stadium Record

Essendon are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue. The Bulldogs are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Marvel.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Bulldogs have won 8 games against the Bombers.

Best Bet

The Dogs usually play in high scoring games at Marvel and the Over is 4-0 in their last 4.

Over 177.5 = $1.87

GWS Giants (6th) vs Sydney Swans (10th)

The Giants are absolutely flying right now, riding a 5-game winning streak and sitting 6th on the ladder with a solid 12-6 record. They smashed the Bombers by 48 points last round at Docklands, kicking 16 goals in a dominant performance. Jake Stringer chipped in with 3 goals, while Tom Green and Finn Callaghan were everywhere, racking up 30 and 33 disposals respectively. They’ve been strong both home (5-3) and away (7-3), and their recent form makes them one of the hottest teams in the comp. Offensively, they’re dangerous — ranked 4th in the AFL for both disposals and goals kicked. Clearances are a weak spot (15th), but they’re finding ways to win regardless. They’ll be full of confidence heading into a big clash against the Swans.

The Swans are building some solid momentum, coming into this week’s clash against the Giants on a 3-game winning streak and sitting 10th on the ladder with a 9-9 record. They got the job done last round at the SCG, beating North Melbourne by 31 points and kicking 12 goals. Isaac Heeney was a standout, putting on a show with 5 goals and 34 disposals. They’ve won 4 of their last 5 and have been slightly better on the road (5-4) than at home (4-5). While they’ve struggled with disposals this season (ranked 14th), they’re ranked 5th in clearances — showing they can win the contest when it matters. The Swans are hitting form at the right time and will be fired up for a big Sydney derby against the in-form Giants.

Stadium Record

GWS are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. Sydney are 5-3 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

The Swans are 5-0 against the Giants in the last 5 meetings.

Best Bet

The Swans are right back into the finals race and if Heeney has another blinder, they should be able to get close. They are also 7-0 ATS when they play the Giants as the away side.

Sydney Swans +10.5 = $1.90

Gold Coast Suns (8th) vs Brisbane Lions (2nd)

The Suns are holding onto 8th spot on the ladder with an 11-6 record, but they’ll be looking to bounce back after a heavy 61-point loss to the Crows at Adelaide Oval. It was a rough day where they managed just 46 points, though Matthew Rowell did his best with 30 disposals. Despite that hiccup, their recent form is decent at 3-2 over the last five, and they’ve been particularly strong at home with a 6-1 record. Away from home, they’re 5-5. Stat-wise, the Suns shine in key areas — ranked 2nd for clearances and inside 50s, and 5th for goals kicked. Disposals are a weak spot (15th), but when they win the ball, they make it count. They’ll be keen to bounce back strong against the Lions in what should be a fiery Queensland clash.

The Lions are in red-hot form, sitting 2nd on the ladder with a 13-4 record and riding a 4-game winning streak. They edged out the Bulldogs by 10 points last round at the Gabba, slotting 12 goals, with young gun Will Ashcroft chipping in with 3 majors. They’ve won 4 of their last 5 and have been rock-solid away from home with a 7-1-1 record, while also holding their own at the Gabba (6-3). Statistically, the Lions are a powerhouse — ranked 1st in the AFL for inside 50s, 3rd for disposals, and 4th for clearances. Tackling is their biggest weakness (17th), but they more than make up for it with ball movement and forward pressure. They head into this Queensland derby against the Suns with momentum and plenty of firepower.

Stadium Record

Gold Coast are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Brisbane are 11-7 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Lions are 9-1 against the Suns.

Best Bet

The Under has a strong 4-0 record in the Q-Clash and this should be another tough battle.

Under 153.5 = $1.87

Fremantle (7th) vs West Coast Eagles (18th)

The Dockers are sitting nicely in 7th spot with a 12-6 record and have hit a good patch of form, winning 4 of their last 5 and currently on a 2-game winning streak. They pulled off a thrilling 1-point win over Collingwood at the MCG in Round 19, kicking 12 goals. Patrick Voss had a day out with 6 goals, while Caleb Serong dominated with 37 disposals. They’ve been strong both home (6-2) and away (6-4) this season. While they do struggle with disposals (ranked 16th in the AFL), they’ve found ways to win and are peaking at the right time. The Dockers will be fired up for this week’s Western Derby clash against the Eagles.

It’s been a brutal season for the Eagles, who sit last on the ladder with just one win from 18 games and are currently stuck in an 8-game losing streak. They were smashed by 49 points at home last round by the Tigers at Perth Stadium, with Liam Duggan the standout, picking up 31 disposals. Their home form has been rough (1-8) and it’s even worse on the road (0-9). Statistically, they’re struggling across the board — ranked last in the AFL for clearances and disposals, near the bottom for goals kicked, inside 50s, and tackles too. It’s been a tough slog all year, and things won’t get any easier as they head into the Western Derby against a red-hot Dockers outfit.

Stadium Record

Fremantle are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. West Coast are 1-8 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the Dockers hold a 4-1 record against the Eagles.

Best Bet

The Over is 5-0 in the Derby and offers a bit more value compared to the head to head.

Over 163.5 = $1.87

North Melbourne (17th) vs Geelong Cats (4th)

The Kangaroos have had a tough season so far, sitting 17th on the ladder with just 4 wins and 13 losses, and they’re on a 4-game losing streak. Their last outing was a 31-point loss to the Swans at the SCG, where they struggled to get on the scoreboard, managing just 53 points. They’ve been poor both home (2-1-6) and away (2-7), and their main weakness is getting the ball inside 50, ranking 17th in the AFL. The one bright spot is their clearance work — they’re ranked 3rd in the league for winning the contest. Still, they’ll have their work cut out for them against the Cats this week.

The Cats are flying high this season, sitting 4th on the ladder with a 12-6 record and coming off a solid 31-point win over St Kilda at Kardinia Park, where they kicked 17 goals. Jeremy Cameron was on fire with 5 goals, Max Holmes piled on 32 disposals, and Shaun Mannagh chipped in with 3 goals. They’ve been tough to beat at home with a 7-2 record and are holding their own away (5-4). The Cats are strong all over the ground — ranked 2nd in the AFL for goals kicked and tackling, and 5th for inside 50s. After snapping a two-game losing streak, they’ll be confident heading into this one against the struggling Kangaroos.

Stadium Record

North Melbourne are 2-8 in their last 10 games at Marvel. Geelong are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

The Cats are 18-5 against the Kangaroos since 2010.

Best Bet

Geelong will likely win this but I also like the Over as it’s saluted in 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Over 177.5 = $1.87

Adelaide Crows (3rd) vs Port Adelaide (11th)

The Crows are flying high in 3rd place on the ladder with a 13-5 record and have been on a roll lately, winning 4 of their last 5 games. They crushed the Suns by 61 points at Adelaide Oval last time out, kicking 16 goals with Alex Neal-Bullen starring—he notched 3 goals and racked up 31 disposals. They’re tough to beat at home with an 8-1 record and decent on the road too (5-4). The Crows are strong where it counts, ranking 3rd in the AFL for goals kicked, 4th for inside 50 entries, and 5th for tackling. They’ll be confident heading into their match against the Power.

The Power are sitting 11th on the ladder with an 8-10 record and coming off a tough 38-point loss to the Hawks at York Park, where they managed just 49 points. They’ve been a bit up and down lately, winning 2 of their last 5 games, and they’re on a one-game losing streak. Their home form is decent at 6-4, but they’ve struggled away with a 2-6 record. Scoring goals has been a problem this season, with the Power ranked 14th in the AFL for goals kicked. They’ll need to find some more firepower if they want to challenge the in-form Crows this week.

Stadium Record

Adelaide are 9-1 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. Port Adelaide are 5-4 (1 draws) in their last 10 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.

Best Bet

Port can’t make the finals so this will be like their GF and they’re 4-0 ATS in night games at home. This should be another close showdown.

Port Adelaide +29.5 = $1.90

Richmond (16th) vs Collingwood (1st)

The Tigers are struggling this season, sitting 16th on the ladder with a 5-13 record, but they’ve managed to build a bit of momentum with back-to-back wins. Their last game was a big 49-point win over the Eagles at Perth Stadium, where they kicked 16 goals. Tim Taranto was impressive with 3 goals and 30 disposals, Jacob Hopper piled on 33 disposals, and Rhyan Mansell also kicked 3 goals. Despite this, they’ve been poor on the road (1-8) and have a lot of weaknesses, ranking near the bottom of the AFL in clearances, disposals, goals kicked, inside 50s, and tackling. They’ll be hoping to keep the good form going as they face the Magpies this week.

The Magpies are sitting pretty at the top of the ladder with a 14-4 record, but they’re looking to bounce back after a narrow 1-point loss to the Dockers at the MCG. They’ve been solid away from home with a 6-2 record and strong at home too (8-2). Nick Daicos was a standout last game, racking up 43 disposals. The Magpies are tough to beat thanks to their attacking firepower — ranked 5th in the AFL for goals kicked—and their relentless pressure, leading the league in tackling. They’ll be fired up to end their two-game losing streak when they take on the Tigers this week.

Stadium Record

Richmond are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. In their last 10 games at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Collingwood hold a 8-2 record.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the Magpies have won 3 games against the Tigers.

Best Bet

After a few losses, the Pies will be desperate for a good performance and the Tigers are coming back from a Perth trip. Pies to do it easily.

Collingwood -45.5 = $1.95

St Kilda (15th) vs Melbourne (13th)

The Saints have had a rough season so far, sitting 15th on the ladder with just 5 wins and 13 losses, and they’re currently on a 6-game losing streak. They went down to the Cats by 31 points at Kardinia Park last time out, managing 82 points while the Cats scored 113. Jack Sinclair and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera were busy with 33 and 36 disposals, respectively, but it wasn’t enough to turn things around. Their home form hasn’t been great (3-7), and they’ve struggled even more away from home (2-6). One of their main issues has been getting the ball inside 50, where they rank 14th in the AFL. The Saints will be desperate to snap their losing streak when they take on the Demons this week.

The Demons have had a tough season, sitting 13th on the ladder with a 6-12 record and coming off a narrow 8-point loss to the Blues at the MCG. Kysaiah Pickett was a bright spot last game, kicking 5 goals, but overall they’ve struggled lately, winning just 1 of their last 5 games. Their home form is shaky at 4-6, and they’ve found it even harder on the road with a 2-6 record. The Demons have some clear weaknesses too — they’re ranked 14th in the AFL for clearances and 16th for tackling. They’ll be looking to bounce back quickly when they take on the Saints this week.

Stadium Record

St Kilda are 3-7 in their last 10 games at Marvel. Melbourne are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Demons are 6-4 against the Saints.

Best Bet

The Saints are 4-0 against the Over at Marvel and hopefully both sides enjoy the friendly scoring conditions under the roof.

Over 169.5 = $1.87

We’ve hit Round 19 and the top 8 is starting to take shape. This weekend’s AFL action starts at Marvel with the Giants looking for a top 4 spot as they take on the injury ravaged Bombers. Here’s a betting preview of every game in AFL Round 19.

Essendon (14th) vs GWS Giants (7th)

The Bombers are going through a rough patch right now, coming into this clash with the Giants on a six-game losing streak and a 0-5 record from their last five matches. They’ve had a tough time on the road too, winning just two of their nine away games this season. Overall, they’re sitting 14th on the ladder with a 6-10 record and are out of finals contention. One of their biggest issues has been around the contest—they rank last in the league for clearances, inside 50s, and goals kicked. That said, they do have a strength: they’re the top team in the AFL for disposals, with Zach Merrett and Archie Roberts both racking up 31 touches in their most recent match. Unfortunately, that game ended in another ugly loss, going down 46-37 to the Tigers at the MCG. At home, they’re a bit more competitive with a 4-3 record, but they’ll need to lift big time if they want to break this losing run against the Giants.

The Giants are in great form heading into their clash with the Bombers, riding a four-game winning streak and sitting 7th on the ladder with an 11-6 record. They’ve been solid both home and away—going 5-3 at home and 6-3 on the road—and are firming up their spot in the finals. They’ve won four of their last five games and come off a strong 26-point win over the Cats, where they nailed 17 goals at Sydney Showgrounds. Aaron Cadman was a standout with six goals, while Jake Stringer added four, and Lachie Whitfield racked up 32 disposals. One of their biggest strengths is their ball movement—they rank 4th in the league for disposals. However, they do have some room to improve in clearances, where they sit 14th overall. Still, with their current momentum, the Giants are looking sharp and will fancy their chances against a struggling Bombers outfit.

Stadium Record

Essendon are 4-6 in their last 10 games at Marvel. GWS are 5-5 in their last 10 games at Marvel.

Head to Head Record

The Giants are 3-2 against the Bombers in the last 5 meetings.

Best Bet

The Over has saluted in the last 6 games at Marvel and I think the Giants will score most of this total on the way to over 169.5 pts.

Over 169.5 = $1.87

Same Game Multi

Bedford has hit the scoreboard in his last 3 games and offers great value at $2. Whitfield returned from injury last week with 32 touches and has 30+ in his last 2 games (excluding his injury game). He also loves playing in Victoria, hitting 30 or more in 5 of his last 6 outings.

Over 169.5 pts / Toby Bedford Anytime Goalscorer / Lachie Whitfield 30+ Disposals = $6.00

Brisbane Lions (2nd) vs Western Bulldogs (9th)

The Lions are flying high at the moment, sitting 2nd on the ladder with a 12-4 record and coming into this clash against the Bulldogs on a three-game winning streak. They’ve been rock-solid away from home this season with a 7-1-1 record, and they’re no slouch at home either, going 5-3. Their last outing was a dominant 37-point win over Carlton at Docklands, where they slotted 15 goals. Lachie Neale and Darcy Wilmot both had 31 disposals, while Charlie Cameron chipped in with three goals. Statistically, the Lions are one of the best in the comp—they rank 4th in clearances, 3rd for disposals, and 3rd for inside 50s. The only real concern is their tackling pressure, where they rank 17th in the league. Still, with form, class, and finals footy in sight, Brisbane are looking tough to beat.

The Bulldogs are sitting just outside the top 8 in 9th spot with a 10-7 record, and they’ve been in decent form lately, winning four of their last five. They are coming off a narrow 11-point loss to the Crows at Docklands, but there were still some standout performances—Marcus Bontempelli racked up 37 disposals and Aaron Naughton kicked five goals. The Dogs have been solid both home and away this season. Stat-wise, they’re one of the most dangerous attacking teams in the comp—ranking 1st for goals kicked, 2nd for inside 50s, 2nd for disposals, and 2nd for clearances. The only real knock is their tackling pressure, which sits 16th in the AFL. Still, with a strong midfield and scoring power, the Bulldogs have the tools to push any side and will be fired up to bounce back against the in-form Lions.

Stadium Record

Brisbane are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. The Bulldogs are 2-8 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.

Best Bet

The Over is a great bet with the Doggies involved, going 7-0. Should be good scoring conditions at the Gabba too.

Over 171.5 = $1.87

Hawthorn (6th) vs Port Adelaide (11th)

The Hawks have quietly put together a strong season and currently sit 6th on the ladder with an 11-6 record. They’ve been especially tough to beat at home with a 6-1 record, and while they’re an even 5-5 on the road, they’ve still managed to win four of their last five games. Their most recent outing was a 13-point loss to the Dockers over in Perth, where Karl Amon collected 30 disposals and Calsher Dear booted three goals. One of Hawthorn’s biggest strengths is their ability to win the ball—they rank 5th in the AFL for disposals. Despite that recent loss, the Hawks are in good form, love playing in Tassie and will be keen to bounce back when they take on the Power.

The Power are hanging around the middle of the pack, sitting 11th on the ladder with an 8-9 record and coming off a solid 26-point win over the Eagles at Adelaide Oval, where they kicked 12 goals. Zak Butters was massive with 38 disposals, while Mitchell Georgiades and Jason Horne-Francis both chipped in with three goals each. They’ve won three of their last five and are hoping to build some momentum, but their away form has been a worry—just two wins from seven games on the road. Statistically, the Power have had trouble converting up forward, ranking 14th for goals kicked, and their tackling pressure also leaves a bit to be desired at 15th in the league. That said, they’ve still got the talent to challenge, and they’ll be out to keep their finals hopes alive with a strong showing against the Hawks.

Stadium Record

Hawthorn are 9-1 in their last 10 games at UTAS. Port Adelaide are 0-3 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

The Power are 4-1 against the Hawks in the last 5 meetings.

Best Bet

The Hawks know this ground well and have a great defensive record so I like the Under, which is 4-0 in this matchup as well.

Under 152.5 = $1.87

Sydney Swans (10th) vs North Melbourne (16th)

The Swans are building some momentum heading into their clash with the Kangaroos, having won four of their last five and coming off a tight 5-point win over St Kilda at Docklands where they slotted 14 goals. Jake Lloyd and Will Hayward both kicked three each in that one. They’re now 8-9 on the season and sit just outside the top 8 in 10th spot. One area they’ve struggled in all year is disposals, ranking 15th in the comp, but their recent form has shown they can still find ways to win. With a two-game winning streak behind them, the Swans will be keen to keep pushing for a finals spot.

The Kangaroos have had a tough season so far, sitting 16th on the ladder with just 4 wins and 12 losses. They’ve dropped their last three games, including a 36-point loss to the Demons at the MCG where Cooper Harvey kicked four goals, and both Jack Darling and Cam Zurhaar chipped in with three each. While they’ve struggled to get the ball inside 50, one big strength is their work around stoppages—they’re ranked 2nd in the AFL for clearances. They’ve only won two of eight away games and Xerri out is a blow as they face the red-hot Brodie Grundy. With just one win from their last five, the Roos will need to dig deep if they’re to have any chance to upset a Swans side pushing for finals.

Stadium Record

Sydney are 5-5 in their last 10 games at SCG. North Melbourne are 2-5 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Swans hold a 9-1 record against the Kangaroos.

Best Bet

The Over is 5-1 in this matchup and I think the Swans will score 100+ easily with Xerri out for the Roos.

Over 171.5 = $1.87

Carlton (12th) vs Melbourne (13th)

The Blues are in a bit of a slump right now, sitting 12th on the ladder with a 6-11 record and riding a four-game losing streak. They’ve only managed one win from their last five, and their most recent outing was a 37-point loss to the Lions at Docklands. George Hewett was a standout with 33 disposals, but overall it’s been a rough stretch. Carlton have struggled both at home and away, and scoring has been a major issue—they rank 15th in the AFL for goals kicked. On the positive side, they’re one of the better teams at the contest, sitting 5th in clearances and 3rd in tackling. They’ll need to lean on those strengths if they want to turn things around against a tough Demons outfit.

The Demons finally broke a four-game losing streak last week with a solid 36-point win over North Melbourne at the MCG, where they piled on 18 goals. Jake Melksham was on fire with five majors, Christian Petracca racked up 31 disposals, and Bayley Fritsch added three goals of his own. Despite that win, they’ve had a tough season overall—sitting 13th on the ladder with a 6-11 record. Their home form hasn’t been great, and they’ve struggled even more on the road. Like the Blues, the Dees are trying to find consistency and keep their finals hopes alive, so expect them to come out swinging in this one.

Stadium Record

Carlton are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue. In their last 10 games at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne hold a 4-6 record.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Swans hold a 9-1 record against the Kangaroos.

Best Bet

Love the Under trend in this matchup, it’s 7-0 and the Blues aren’t kicking goals.

Under 162.5 = $1.87

West Coast Eagles (18th) vs Richmond (17th)

The Eagles are having a really tough season, sitting rock bottom of the ladder with just one win and sixteen losses. They’re on a seven-game losing streak and haven’t managed to win a single away game all year, going 0-9 on the road. Their last match was another loss, falling 87-61 to the Power at Adelaide Oval. Statistically, they’re struggling across the board—ranked last in the AFL for clearances and disposals, near the bottom for goals kicked, inside 50 entries, and tackling. Their only win came at home, but even there, they’re 1-7. It’s been a rough year for the Eagles, and they’ll be desperate to turn things around soon.

The Tigers have had a tough season, sitting 17th on the ladder with a 4-13 record. They’re struggling in almost every key area—ranked near the bottom for clearances, disposals, goals kicked, inside 50 entries, and tackling. Their away form has been particularly rough, losing all eight games on the road so far. They’re coming off a narrow 9-point win against Essendon at the MCG, where Tim Taranto had a solid 34 disposals. At home, they’re a bit more competitive with a 4-5 record, but overall, it’s been a challenging year. With just one win in their last five matches, the Tigers will be looking to build some momentum in this one against the Eagles.

Stadium Record

West Coast are 2-7 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. Richmond are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Tigers are 8-2 against the Eagles.

Best Bet

This should be a winnable game for the Eagles at home and they looked solid last week in a tough road loss in Adelaide. Richmond are woeful away from home, losing their last 13.

West Coast Eagles -3.5 = $1.90

Geelong Cats (4th) vs St Kilda (15th)

The Cats are sitting comfortably in 4th spot on the ladder with an 11-6 record, coming off a loss to the Giants at Sydney Showgrounds where they went down 111-85. Despite that defeat, they’ve been strong all season, especially at home with a 6-2 record, and they’re a tough side to beat away too, sitting 5-4 on the road. Their strengths lie in their attack and pressure—they’re ranked 2nd in the AFL for goals kicked and tackling, and 5th for inside 50 entries. Shannon Neale was a standout in the last game, kicking five goals. The only area they’ve struggled with is disposals, ranking 14th in the league. With a solid mix of firepower and pressure, the Cats will be looking to bounce back hard against the Saints.

The Saints are really struggling at the moment, sitting 15th on the ladder with a 5-12 record and currently on a five-game losing streak. Their recent form hasn’t been great either, losing their last five matches, including a tight 5-point loss to the Swans at Docklands. Marcus Windhager stood out with 36 disposals and Max Hall kicked three goals in that game, but the team overall has struggled to get the ball inside 50, ranking 14th in the AFL. Their home form is patchy at 3-7, and they’re only 2-5 away from home. The Saints will need a big effort if they want to turn their season around against a strong Cats side.

Stadium Record

Geelong are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Kardinia Park. St Kilda are 0-7 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Cats hold a 6-4 record against the Saints.

Best Bet

The Cats should get back on track against the Saints but I like the Over, it’s 4-1 in the Saints last 5.

Over 169.5 = $1.87

Collingwood (1st) vs Fremantle (8th)

The Magpies are topping the ladder with a strong 14-3 record this season, and they’ve been solid both at home and away. They’re coming off a close 69-63 loss to the Suns at Carrara but have still won four of their last five games. Jamie Elliott was impressive last game with three goals, and Josh Daicos racked up 32 disposals. The Magpies are a tough side to beat when it comes to scoring—they’re ranked 5th in the AFL for goals kicked—and they lead the league in tackling. Their only noticeable weakness is around clearances, where they sit 14th. Overall, they’re in great form and will be keen to bounce back strong against the Dockers.

The Dockers are holding on to 8th spot on the ladder with an 11-6 record and coming off a solid 13-point win over Hawthorn at Perth Stadium where they kicked 12 goals. They’ve been in good form lately, winning four of their last five games, and have been strong at home with a 6-2 record. Away from home, they’re a bit more balanced at 5-4. Sam Switkowski led the charge last game with three goals, while Jordan Clark collected 31 disposals. One area they’ve struggled with all season is disposals, ranking 16th in the AFL, but overall they’re doing enough to stay in the finals hunt and will be looking to keep the momentum going against the Magpies.

Stadium Record

Collingwood are 9-1 in their last 10 games at MCG. Fremantle are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Magpies hold a 6-3 (1 draws) record.

Best Bet

Should be a tough game at the MCG and I don’t mind the Dockers as an underdog. But the Under looks a better play, it’s 4-1 in their last 5 away from home.

Under 162.5 = $1.87

Adelaide Crows (3rd) vs Gold Coast Suns (5th)

The Crows are flying high at 3rd on the ladder with a 12-5 record and are on a three-game winning streak. They recently beat the Bulldogs by 11 points at Docklands, kicking 16 goals in total, with Riley Thilthorpe smashing six and Darcy Fogarty adding three. Adelaide has been tough to beat at home this season with a 7-1 record and have been solid on the road too, sitting 5-4. Their attack is one of the best in the league—they’re ranked 2nd for goals kicked and 4th for both inside 50 entries and tackling. With their current form and firepower, the Crows will be confident taking on the Suns.

The Suns are in great form right now, sitting 5th on the ladder with an 11-5 record and riding a three-game winning streak. They recently pulled off a close 6-point win over Collingwood at Carrara, kicking 10 goals. Their home record is strong at 6-1, and they’re holding their own away with a 5-4 record. The Suns are one of the best teams around stoppages, ranking 1st in clearances and inside 50 entries, and they’re also up there for goals kicked and tackling. Key players like John Noble, Noah Anderson, and Matthew Rowell have been busy recently, all racking up around 30 disposals each against the Pies. With that kind of form and firepower, the Suns will be confident taking on the Crows.

Stadium Record

Adelaide are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. Gold Coast are 0-11 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

The Suns are 4-1 against the Crows in the last 5 meetings.

Best Bet

Gold Coast have never won at this venue but we know they are a different team this season. So I like the Over between these two attacking sides and the Suns have a 6-1 Overs record at the Adelaide Oval.

Over 174.5 pts = $1.87