{"id":22363,"date":"2026-09-17T09:15:45","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T23:15:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net\/?p=22363"},"modified":"2026-09-17T09:16:37","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T23:16:37","slug":"2026-brownlow-medal-tips-best-bets-and-value-plays","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/afl-brownlow-predictor\/2026-brownlow-medal-tips-best-bets-and-value-plays\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 Brownlow Medal Tips – Best Bets and Value Plays"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Our best bets for Brownlow Medal Night 2026 are Patrick Cripps Top 5 at $1.80 and Max Gawn Top 10 at $1.90, with value plays including Luke Jackson Top 20 at $2.20 and a Teams Multi at $8.81 combining Jackson, Oliver, Gawn and Petracca.<\/em><\/p>\n

The Brownlow Medal count is almost here, and while Nick Daicos at $1.01 is as close to a lock as it gets, there’s genuine value to be found in the prop markets and exotics. Our AFL Brownlow Predictor<\/a> has tracked every round of the count this season, and here are our best plays heading into tonight.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Best Bet<\/h2>\n

Patrick Cripps – Top 5 @ $1.80<\/h3>\n

Cripps would be close to the best poller we’ve ever seen, and the season Patrick Cripps produced went slightly under the radar.<\/p>\n

In Carlton’s wins and draw, Cripps averaged 28.2 disposals per game, along with 8.2 clearances and 14.8 contested possessions. As a result, we have him polling in ten of those games, and potentially 11.<\/p>\n

We have Cripps in second place on our leaderboard with 33.24 votes behind Daicos, so the top-five market appears a great bet at this price. The Blues’ skipper is also paying $19 without Daicos, $6.50 to finish top-three and $5.75 to poll 30+ votes.<\/p>\n

Patrick Cripps Top 5 @ $1.80 <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Next Best<\/h2>\n

Max Gawn – Top 10 @ $1.90<\/h3>\n

Although most ruckmen don’t poll, Max does. Last year Gawn finished in ninth place despite the Dees winning just seven games, while Christian Petracca polled 16 votes as one of his competitors.<\/p>\n

There’s now no Petracca, and Melbourne has won 15 games. Gawn produced a career-high season for disposals with 21.5 per game, while having his best goals output since 2022 and a career-high clearances per game at 6.6.<\/p>\n

We have Gawn just outside the top-five with 24.66 votes, an improvement on his career-high 23 votes last year, which should be enough for a top-10 finish.<\/p>\n

Max Gawn Top 10 @ $1.90 <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Value Bets<\/h2>\n

Luke Jackson – Top 20 @ $2.20<\/h3>\n

At Round 18, Luke Jackson was the sixth line of betting paying as short as $13 to win the Brownlow. Now we are getting plus money for the Dockers ruckman to finish top-20.<\/p>\n

Jackson polled extremely well last year with 17 votes, and that was while more often than not splitting ruck duties. Now as the primary ruck, I think we’ll see the big man poll even stronger in 2026.<\/p>\n

We have Jackson on 17.27 votes, which should be enough to have him inside the top-20 this year.<\/p>\n

Luke Jackson Top 20 @ $2.20 <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Willem Duursma – To Poll a Vote @ $2.75<\/h3>\n

It’s Round 12, and the Eagles have just beaten the Bombers by five goals. Willem Duursma is the Rising Star favourite, and it’s off the back of this performance.<\/p>\n

The number one pick had 25 disposals and a goal against Essendon, including five tackles, an equal team-high four clearances and strong impact throughout.<\/p>\n

Although there’s a handful of players around the 25-disposal mark for the Eagles in this win, Duursma’s impact should see him in the votes.<\/p>\n

Willem Duursma to Poll a Vote @ $2.75 <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Clayton Oliver – Top 20 @ $6.00<\/h3>\n

Contested possessions has been a core ingredient to Brownlow success historically, and Clayton Oliver won a heap of them this season, ranked first in the AFL with 14.9 per game.<\/p>\n

Oliver produced similar numbers when at his peak at Melbourne, and although he underpolled badly in 2023, in 2021 and 2022 he polled 31 and 25 votes respectively.<\/p>\n

The first half of Oliver’s season was really strong, and we’ve got him around 20th place at a very healthy price.<\/p>\n

Clayton Oliver Top 20 @ $6.00 <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Christian Petracca – 15+ Votes @ $5.75<\/h3>\n

Another former Demon, and it appears everyone has forgotten how good Christian Petracca was at the start of the season, in conjunction with Gold Coast winning games.<\/p>\n

After the bye, Petracca falls right away with the potential of polling minimal in Rounds 15 and 17, but before the bye we have Petracca pushing 15 votes by Round 11.<\/p>\n

He is a proven poller. Petracca has polled 16+ votes in each of the last six seasons. The $17 for top-20 is also worth a small play.<\/p>\n

Christian Petracca 15+ Votes @ $5.75 <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Sam Durham – Most Essendon Votes @ $6.00<\/h3>\n

Zach Merrett is the favourite for this market, but the Bomber played a different role in 2026 to what we’re used to, winning a lot of uncontested ball from the back-half.<\/p>\n

Sam Durham had a big game in Round 13 against the Blues, in which the Bombers only lost by five points, finishing with 30 disposals and a goal, along with ten marks, 11 contested possessions and eight score involvements.<\/p>\n

In Essendon’s Round 19 win, Durham will go head-to-head with Merrett for the maximum votes, having finished with 25 disposals and a team-high 13 contested possessions, six score involvements and seven clearances.<\/p>\n

Sam Durham Most Essendon Votes @ $6.00 <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Teams Multi<\/h2>\n

Combining our four best value plays into one multi across the top Brownlow pollers from their respective clubs.<\/p>\n

Jackson (Fre) \/ Oliver (GWS) \/ Gawn (Mel) \/ Petracca (GC) = $8.81 <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Our best bets for Brownlow Medal Night 2026 are Patrick Cripps Top 5 at $1.80 and Max Gawn Top 10 at $1.90, with value plays including Luke Jackson Top 20 at $2.20 and a Teams Multi at $8.81 combining Jackson, Oliver, Gawn and Petracca. The Brownlow Medal count is almost […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":21689,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1238,1220],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22363","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-afl-brownlow-predictor","category-afl"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22363","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22363"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22363\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22365,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22363\/revisions\/22365"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21689"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22363"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22363"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22363"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}