{"id":22260,"date":"2026-08-18T09:15:45","date_gmt":"2026-08-17T23:15:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net\/?p=22260"},"modified":"2026-08-18T09:15:45","modified_gmt":"2026-08-17T23:15:45","slug":"brownlow-predictor-daicos-at-1-01-but-cripps-still-worth-a-throw","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/afl-brownlow-predictor\/brownlow-predictor-daicos-at-1-01-but-cripps-still-worth-a-throw\/","title":{"rendered":"Brownlow Predictor – Daicos at $1.01 but Cripps Still Worth a Throw"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

As of Round 23 2026, Nick Daicos leads the Brownlow Medal race with 41.75 projected votes, priced at $1.01 to win. Patrick Cripps sits second on 32.95 votes at $67, while Marcus Bontempelli is third on 28.17 votes at $41. Daicos is on track to threaten Patrick Cripps’ all-time vote record, but our best bet value play is Cripps at $67 and Max Gawn at $251.<\/p>\n

Another big game from Nick Daicos who will once again feature in the votes. Is he on track to beat the Brownlow Medal vote record set by Patrick Cripps two years ago?<\/p>\n

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 23<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rank<\/th>\nName<\/th>\nTeam<\/th>\nVotes<\/th>\nOdds<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>\nNick Daicos<\/td>\nColl<\/td>\n41.75<\/td>\n$1.01<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nPatrick Cripps<\/td>\nCar<\/td>\n32.95<\/td>\n$67<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nMarcus Bontempelli<\/td>\nWB<\/td>\n28.17<\/td>\n$41<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nJai Newcombe<\/td>\nHaw<\/td>\n27.35<\/td>\n$101<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nBailey Smith<\/td>\nGee<\/td>\n25.79<\/td>\n$51<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nWill Ashcroft<\/td>\nBL<\/td>\n24.44<\/td>\n$81<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nJordan Dawson<\/td>\nAde<\/td>\n23.63<\/td>\n$101<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nMax Gawn<\/td>\nMel<\/td>\n23.32<\/td>\n$251<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Best Bet<\/h2>\n

Patrick Cripps<\/h3>\n

The market has been unbackable for weeks now with Nick Daicos considered a certainty. Insane to think he was crunched in from $1.05 to $1.01 over the weekend.<\/p>\n

But if we’ve got $10 to spend and your options are Nick Daicos at $1.01 and Patrick Cripps at $67, you’re taking the Blues skipper at a price.<\/p>\n

Not saying he will do this again, but in 2024 Cripps upstaged Daicos in the highest polling count in Brownlow history. Cripps’ season is not quite at that level, but it’s comparable to his winning 2022 season. He will poll 30+ this season, and it probably won’t be enough, but if I’m having a small wager I’m happy to play in this space at these odds opposed to the $1.01 on offer for the Magpie.<\/p>\n

Back Patrick Cripps @ $67 with betr <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Lay<\/h2>\n

Marcus Bontempelli<\/h3>\n

Still the second favourite, and the longest second favourite in Brownlow history at $41.<\/p>\n

I doubt we will see Bontempelli in Round 24 with a reported achilles issue, and as a result we could see the Bulldog drop down to third or fourth favourite by this time next week.<\/p>\n

We already have the Bont in third place, and he could slide to fifth on our leaderboard after next round.<\/p>\n

Back Marcus Bontempelli @ $41 with betr <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Value Bet<\/h2>\n

Max Gawn<\/h3>\n

Ruckmen traditionally don’t poll, but that’s not the case for big Max.<\/p>\n

Gawn polled 23 votes last year in a team that finished with seven wins. Petracca had 16 votes and Viney eight, so neither will be taking votes away in 2026. The Demons are expected to win 16 games this season, and Gawn is incredibly having a career year at 34 years of age.<\/p>\n

Compared to last season, Gawn’s disposals are up at a career-high, his clearances are up at a career-high and his goal average is up. Although Pickett and Sparrow will be taking votes, I think we could see a big Brownlow Night from Max.<\/p>\n

Back Max Gawn @ $251 with betr <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach<\/h2>\n

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.<\/p>\n

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As of Round 23 2026, Nick Daicos leads the Brownlow Medal race with 41.75 projected votes, priced at $1.01 to win. Patrick Cripps sits second on 32.95 votes at $67, while Marcus Bontempelli is third on 28.17 votes at $41. Daicos is on track to threaten Patrick Cripps’ all-time vote […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":21689,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1238],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-afl-brownlow-predictor"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22260","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22260"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22260\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22262,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22260\/revisions\/22262"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21689"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22260"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22260"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22260"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}