{"id":22229,"date":"2026-08-11T11:00:45","date_gmt":"2026-08-11T01:00:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net\/?p=22229"},"modified":"2026-08-11T11:00:45","modified_gmt":"2026-08-11T01:00:45","slug":"brownlow-predictor-daicos-at-1-05-and-chasing-history","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/afl-brownlow-predictor\/brownlow-predictor-daicos-at-1-05-and-chasing-history\/","title":{"rendered":"Brownlow Predictor – Daicos at $1.05 and Chasing History"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

As of Round 22 2026, Nick Daicos leads the Brownlow Medal race with 40.43 projected votes, priced at $1.05 to win. Patrick Cripps sits second on 30.85 votes at $67, while Marcus Bontempelli is third on 28.17 votes at $23. The question is no longer whether Daicos wins, but whether he breaks Patrick Cripps’ all-time record.<\/p>\n

Another Collingwood win, another three votes to Nick Daicos. We’re about to witness one of the most dominant Brownlow seasons in history. Who will feature on the podium with him?<\/p>\n

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 22<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rank<\/th>\nName<\/th>\nTeam<\/th>\nVotes<\/th>\nOdds<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>\nNick Daicos<\/td>\nColl<\/td>\n40.43<\/td>\n$1.05<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nPatrick Cripps<\/td>\nCar<\/td>\n30.85<\/td>\n$67<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nMarcus Bontempelli<\/td>\nWB<\/td>\n28.17<\/td>\n$23<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nJai Newcombe<\/td>\nHaw<\/td>\n25.19<\/td>\n$67<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nBailey Smith<\/td>\nGee<\/td>\n25.01<\/td>\n$26<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nJordan Dawson<\/td>\nAde<\/td>\n23.63<\/td>\n$81<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nWill Ashcroft<\/td>\nBL<\/td>\n21.67<\/td>\n$61<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nMax Gawn<\/td>\nMel<\/td>\n20.90<\/td>\n$251<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Best Bet<\/h2>\n

Nick Daicos<\/h3>\n

Another three votes for Nick Daicos, and the question isn’t necessarily will he win, it’s whether he will break Patrick Cripps’ record.<\/p>\n

Daicos will likely enter as the shortest favourite since 2017 when Dustin Martin entered Brownlow Night at $1.04 due to Patrick Dangerfield’s suspension. The Richmond legend finished 11 votes clear of the next eligible player, and I can easily see Daicos replicating this margin this year.<\/p>\n

Back Nick Daicos @ $1.05 with betr <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Lay<\/h2>\n

Marcus Bontempelli<\/h3>\n

Second favourite, but once again it won’t be Bont’s year. A quiet fortnight for the Bulldogs skipper has put a pen through his chances to compete with Daicos two rounds out, and I’ve even got concerns about Bontempelli staying on the Brownlow podium.<\/p>\n

With Brownlow Without Daicos markets emerging, Bont will be the likely favourite in those and someone I’d be keen to lay at a short price.<\/p>\n

Cripps is a proven poller and has once again produced a big season for Carlton, while Bailey Smith’s run home is extremely friendly with North Melbourne and Richmond to close the season.<\/p>\n

Back Marcus Bontempelli @ $23 with betr <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Value Bet<\/h2>\n

Chad Warner<\/h3>\n

Right now, our value plays aren’t necessarily finding someone that can actually beat Nick Daicos, because reality is no one can from here. We’re now looking for prop markets, and I think Chad Warner is a genuine top-ten shot when markets open.<\/p>\n

Warner is a sensational poller, producing 20+ votes over the last two seasons, including 23 in 2024. His numbers are almost identical to 2024, if not better, with his disposals and goals nearly identical and a bump in inside-50s, contested possessions and clearances.<\/p>\n

Last year Warner surprised everyone finishing equal-11th with 21 votes, despite the Swans winning just 12 games. With an 18-win season on the cards and not much Errol Gulden, will we see Warner back up there again?<\/p>\n

Back Chad Warner @ $201 with betr <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach<\/h2>\n

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.<\/p>\n

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As of Round 22 2026, Nick Daicos leads the Brownlow Medal race with 40.43 projected votes, priced at $1.05 to win. Patrick Cripps sits second on 30.85 votes at $67, while Marcus Bontempelli is third on 28.17 votes at $23. The question is no longer whether Daicos wins, but whether […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":21689,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1238],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22229","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-afl-brownlow-predictor"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22229","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22229"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22229\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22231,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22229\/revisions\/22231"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21689"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22229"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22229"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22229"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}