{"id":22204,"date":"2026-08-04T13:47:10","date_gmt":"2026-08-04T03:47:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net\/?p=22204"},"modified":"2026-08-05T13:47:40","modified_gmt":"2026-08-05T03:47:40","slug":"brownlow-predictor-daicos-at-1-15-but-could-gawn-cause-a-late-shock","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/afl-brownlow-predictor\/brownlow-predictor-daicos-at-1-15-but-could-gawn-cause-a-late-shock\/","title":{"rendered":"Brownlow Predictor – Daicos at $1.15 But Could Gawn Cause a Late Shock?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

As of Round 21 2026, Nick Daicos leads the Brownlow Medal race with 37.26 projected votes, priced at $1.15 to win. Patrick Cripps sits second on 29.35 votes at $51, while Marcus Bontempelli is third on 28.17 votes at $13. Our value play this week is Max Gawn at $251, with the Demons ruckman having a career season and a Brownlow profile that could see him make a late charge.<\/p>\n

Although the Brownlow appears over with another big game from Nick Daicos, is there a surprise packet that’s gone under the Brownlow radar this season at $251?<\/p>\n

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 21<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rank<\/th>\nName<\/th>\nTeam<\/th>\nVotes<\/th>\nOdds<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>\nNick Daicos<\/td>\nColl<\/td>\n37.26<\/td>\n$1.15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nPatrick Cripps<\/td>\nCar<\/td>\n29.35<\/td>\n$51<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nMarcus Bontempelli<\/td>\nWB<\/td>\n28.17<\/td>\n$13<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nJai Newcombe<\/td>\nHaw<\/td>\n25.19<\/td>\n$81<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nBailey Smith<\/td>\nGee<\/td>\n21.88<\/td>\n$26<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nJordan Dawson<\/td>\nAde<\/td>\n21.26<\/td>\n$26<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nMax Gawn<\/td>\nMel<\/td>\n20.64<\/td>\n$251<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nHarry Sheezel<\/td>\nNM<\/td>\n20.40<\/td>\n$101<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Best Bet<\/h2>\n

Nick Daicos<\/h3>\n

Even copping the Oisin Mullin tag, Nick Daicos managed to record 35 disposals in Collingwood’s loss, and although it wasn’t near as effective as other 35-disposal games we’ve seen from the Magpie, it would surprise me if he didn’t poll.<\/p>\n

Cripps and Bontempelli needed a three-vote performance in Round 21 to give this count a pulse, but neither player will poll playing two of their quieter games this season.<\/p>\n

With West Coast coming up this weekend for Collingwood, expect the winner on Brownlow Night to be announced after Round 22.<\/p>\n

Back Nick Daicos @ $1.15 with betr <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Lay<\/h2>\n

Luke Jackson<\/h3>\n

When there’s a $1.15 favourite, it doesn’t give you too many lay options listed at a short price, but Luke Jackson is the equal-fifth favourite and it doesn’t add up.<\/p>\n

Jackson has had an outstanding season and polled really well last year, but the spread of Dockers polling this season will make it close to impossible for Jackson to finish top-five. Based on our numbers, we don’t even have Jackson anywhere near the top-ten.<\/p>\n

We have Jackson in 16th place on 15.77 votes, with five Fremantle players currently projected to poll 10 or more votes. I’d be looking to lay the ruckman when team markets are released in a few weeks if his outright market price is any indication.<\/p>\n

Back Luke Jackson @ $51 with betr <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Value Bet<\/h2>\n

Max Gawn<\/h3>\n

Go back to 2008. Matthew Richardson had the Crown Palladium up and about with the Tiger making a huge Brownlow run. Eighteen years later, could Max Gawn do something similar?<\/p>\n

The 34-year-old is having a career season, averaging 21.5 disposals per game, and the ruckman bucks the trend when it comes to rucks polling. Gawn had 23 votes last year in a team that won just seven games.<\/p>\n

The Dees have already won 13 this year, he doesn’t have to fight for votes with Oliver and Petracca, and he’s extraordinarily close to fitting the Brownlow profile. Gawn is ranked top-ten for contested possessions this season, which is historically the Brownlow formula, and has kicked 10+ goals which also correlates with Brownlow success. I think we could see a monster run by Gawn this year.<\/p>\n

Back Max Gawn @ $251 with betr <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach<\/h2>\n

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.<\/p>\n

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As of Round 21 2026, Nick Daicos leads the Brownlow Medal race with 37.26 projected votes, priced at $1.15 to win. Patrick Cripps sits second on 29.35 votes at $51, while Marcus Bontempelli is third on 28.17 votes at $13. Our value play this week is Max Gawn at $251, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":21689,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1238],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22204","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-afl-brownlow-predictor"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22204","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22204"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22204\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22205,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22204\/revisions\/22205"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21689"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22204"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22204"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22204"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}