{"id":22117,"date":"2026-07-21T09:12:36","date_gmt":"2026-07-20T23:12:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net\/?p=22117"},"modified":"2026-07-21T09:12:56","modified_gmt":"2026-07-20T23:12:56","slug":"brownlow-predictor-is-daicos-a-lay-with-six-rounds-to-go-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/afl-brownlow-predictor\/brownlow-predictor-is-daicos-a-lay-with-six-rounds-to-go-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Brownlow Predictor – Is Daicos a Lay With Six Rounds to Go?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

As of Round 19 2026, Nick Daicos leads the Brownlow Medal race with 33.03 projected votes, priced at $1.45 to win. Marcus Bontempelli sits second on 26.52 votes at $9.00, with Patrick Cripps third on 26.36 votes at $34. Our best bet is Bontempelli at $9.00, with the Bulldogs facing a favourable run home that could close the gap on Daicos.<\/p>\n

Nick Daicos had plenty of it in Collingwood’s Round 19 win over the Blues. Is he a sure thing to win the 2026 Brownlow?<\/p>\n

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 19<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rank<\/th>\nName<\/th>\nTeam<\/th>\nVotes<\/th>\nOdds<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>\nNick Daicos<\/td>\nColl<\/td>\n33.03<\/td>\n$1.45<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nMarcus Bontempelli<\/td>\nWB<\/td>\n26.52<\/td>\n$9.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nPatrick Cripps<\/td>\nCar<\/td>\n26.36<\/td>\n$34<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nJai Newcombe<\/td>\nHaw<\/td>\n21.81<\/td>\n$51<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nBailey Smith<\/td>\nGee<\/td>\n20.32<\/td>\n$15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nHarry Sheezel<\/td>\nNM<\/td>\n19.89<\/td>\n$81<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nZak Butters<\/td>\nPA<\/td>\n19.59<\/td>\nN\/A<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nIsaac Heeney<\/td>\nSyd<\/td>\n19.40<\/td>\n$14<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Best Bet<\/h2>\n

Marcus Bontempelli<\/h3>\n

Can the Bont make a late run? He’s got some work to do, but the Bulldogs face Richmond this week and North Melbourne in Round 22, so a big three weeks ahead which could put him within striking distance of Daicos with two rounds remaining.<\/p>\n

As for Daicos, the dream post-bye run for the Pies has come to an end. Collingwood have Adelaide on Thursday night, along with Geelong, Hawthorn and Brisbane in the run home, so the votes will likely slow down from here.<\/p>\n

The issue for Bont is that he’s surprisingly polled below expectation in the majority of seasons dating back to 2019, but the positive is that the Bulldog did outperform his projected votes last year. Can he carry that momentum into the 2026 count? I think he’ll be significantly shorter than $9 come Brownlow Night.<\/p>\n

Back Marcus Bontempelli @ $9.00 with betr <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Lay<\/h2>\n

Isaac Heeney<\/h3>\n

He’s one of the best handful of players in the competition and having an outstanding season, but the Swans’ lull has pushed Heeney out of Brownlow contention.<\/p>\n

Although he’s currently listed as third favourite, we have Heeney in eighth place on our leaderboard with Jordan Dawson only slightly behind him.<\/p>\n

The biggest concern is Heeney’s polling history. He’s notoriously polled below expectation, including last year where Chad Warner polled like a maniac as Sydney’s leading poller. Heeney would need to turn the tables and poll well above expectation, which he’s never done before across his career.<\/p>\n

Back Isaac Heeney @ $14 with betr <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Value Bet<\/h2>\n

Will Ashcroft<\/h3>\n

In career-best form which is in conjunction with Brisbane’s resurgence.<\/p>\n

Will Ashcroft has had 30+ disposals in his last five games, and we have him polling 11 votes during this stretch, moving into tenth place on our leaderboard with 17.64 votes.<\/p>\n

Year on year his numbers are close to identical, polling just 11 votes in 2025. But last year McCluggage and Zorko combined for 35 votes, and the pair have been injured for a large chunk of the season, or in McCluggage’s case completely out of form. Ashcroft will be consuming a lot of those votes this year.<\/p>\n

He can’t win it, but he’s a watch for exotics.<\/p>\n

Back Will Ashcroft @ $126 with betr <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach<\/h2>\n

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.<\/p>\n

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As of Round 19 2026, Nick Daicos leads the Brownlow Medal race with 33.03 projected votes, priced at $1.45 to win. Marcus Bontempelli sits second on 26.52 votes at $9.00, with Patrick Cripps third on 26.36 votes at $34. Our best bet is Bontempelli at $9.00, with the Bulldogs facing […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":21689,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1238],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22117","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-afl-brownlow-predictor"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22117","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22117"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22117\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22119,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22117\/revisions\/22119"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21689"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22117"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22117"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22117"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}