{"id":22055,"date":"2026-06-23T09:07:39","date_gmt":"2026-06-22T23:07:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net\/?p=22055"},"modified":"2026-06-23T09:07:39","modified_gmt":"2026-06-22T23:07:39","slug":"brownlow-predictor-cripps-at-34-too-good-to-ignore","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/afl-brownlow-predictor\/brownlow-predictor-cripps-at-34-too-good-to-ignore\/","title":{"rendered":"Brownlow Predictor – Cripps at $34 Too Good to Ignore"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

It was another Nick Daicos masterclass on the weekend, but a $34 chance has stormed into calculations and is at a price we simply cannot ignore after Round 15.<\/p>\n

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 15<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rank<\/th>\nName<\/th>\nTeam<\/th>\nVotes<\/th>\nOdds<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>\nNick Daicos<\/td>\nColl<\/td>\n23.25<\/td>\n$3.50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nMarcus Bontempelli<\/td>\nWB<\/td>\n21.07<\/td>\n$5.50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nPatrick Cripps<\/td>\nCar<\/td>\n20.07<\/td>\n$34<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nBailey Smith<\/td>\nGee<\/td>\n18.50<\/td>\n$10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nJai Newcombe<\/td>\nHaw<\/td>\n18.44<\/td>\n$21<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nIsaac Heeney<\/td>\nSyd<\/td>\n17.79<\/td>\n$6.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nZak Butters<\/td>\nPA<\/td>\n15.62<\/td>\n$18<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nHarry Sheezel<\/td>\nNM<\/td>\n15.56<\/td>\n$101<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Best Bet<\/h2>\n

Patrick Cripps<\/h3>\n

We’ve had Nick Daicos as our best bet the last few weeks, but at this price I have to shift to Patrick Cripps despite him being three votes behind the Magpie.<\/p>\n

Cripps has a strong chance to poll three votes in Carlton’s win over the Giants, alongside Walsh and Hewett, but the Blues’ skipper’s polling history cannot be ignored.<\/p>\n

We now have Cripps the front-runner to poll three votes in five of his last six games, with their win over Essendon the only blip. Carlton face the Eagles and Tigers the next fortnight, entering as favourites in both, and if Cripps maintains this level he should poll in both.<\/p>\n

Back Patrick Cripps @ $34 with betr <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Lay<\/h2>\n

Jordan Dawson<\/h3>\n

Was our lay at $13 last week, and although the Crows won I can’t see Dawson polling with just 18 disposals against the Demons.<\/p>\n

Despite this, Dawson has shortened into $12 while Bontempelli has stayed at $5.50 even with a clear best on ground performance.<\/p>\n

The Crows’ skipper has slid to 12th on our leaderboard after Round 15, and the $12 on offer certainly doesn’t align with what we’re seeing.<\/p>\n

Back Jordan Dawson @ $12 with betr <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Value Bet<\/h2>\n

Harry Sheezel<\/h3>\n

I don’t think Harry Sheezel will win the Brownlow but he remains the best value, and as predicted in our Round 14 article, Sheezel moved into the top-eight of our leaderboard off the back of a best on ground performance against the Tigers.<\/p>\n

North Melbourne will now face the Bombers, giving Sheezel another huge opportunity for maximum votes.<\/p>\n

Sheezel has polled above our expectations in the last two years, including polling 15 votes in 2024 despite the Kangaroos winning just three games.<\/p>\n

Back Harry Sheezel @ $101 with betr <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach<\/h2>\n

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.<\/p>\n

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It was another Nick Daicos masterclass on the weekend, but a $34 chance has stormed into calculations and is at a price we simply cannot ignore after Round 15. Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 15 Rank Name Team Votes Odds 1 Nick Daicos Coll 23.25 $3.50 2 Marcus Bontempelli WB 21.07 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":21689,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1238],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22055","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-afl-brownlow-predictor"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22055","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22055"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22055\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22056,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22055\/revisions\/22056"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21689"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22055"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22055"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22055"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}