{"id":21977,"date":"2026-05-26T09:43:35","date_gmt":"2026-05-25T23:43:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net\/?p=21977"},"modified":"2026-06-02T09:58:26","modified_gmt":"2026-06-01T23:58:26","slug":"brownlow-predictor-big-value-for-blue-still-available","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/afl-brownlow-predictor\/brownlow-predictor-big-value-for-blue-still-available\/","title":{"rendered":"Brownlow Predictor – Big Value for Blue Still on Offer"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

A big Round 11 with the top of our leaderboard all amongst the votes, while a two-time Brownlow Medalist has made his move over the last three weeks.<\/p>\n

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 11<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rank<\/th>\nName<\/th>\nTeam<\/th>\nVotes<\/th>\nOdds<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>\nNick Daicos<\/td>\nColl<\/td>\n18.41<\/td>\n$4.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nBailey Smith<\/td>\nGee<\/td>\n16.76<\/td>\n$4.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nMarcus Bontempelli<\/td>\nWB<\/td>\n16.26<\/td>\n$4.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nPatrick Cripps<\/td>\nCar<\/td>\n14.68<\/td>\n$61<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nChristian Petracca<\/td>\nGC<\/td>\n13.96<\/td>\n$13<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nZak Butters<\/td>\nPA<\/td>\n13.35<\/td>\n$13<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nJai Newcombe<\/td>\nHaw<\/td>\n12.37<\/td>\n$26<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nClayton Oliver<\/td>\nGWS<\/td>\n11.68<\/td>\n$151<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Best Bet<\/h2>\n

Nick Daicos<\/strong><\/p>\n

I see there are plenty of punters fading Nick Daicos’ Brownlow chances in favour of Bailey Smith and Bontempelli, but in Round 11 Daicos has a better chance of polling three votes than his two main competitors.<\/p>\n

Daicos finished with 34 disposals and three goals, and while Darcy Cameron was outstanding for Collingwood, umpires will always favour the midfielder. Smith and Bontempelli both had big games, but they’re both more likely to end up with two votes due to huge performances by Max Holmes and Ed Richards.<\/p>\n

A Brownlow swing game in Round 12 awaits against the Bulldogs, and in Daicos’ favour, there won’t be anyone doing a defensive job on him.<\/p>\n

Back Nick Daicos @ $4 with betr <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Lay<\/h2>\n

Zak Butters<\/strong><\/p>\n

I just don’t see a path where Butters wins the Brownlow despite being fourth line of betting.<\/p>\n

The Port Adelaide star has been great all year, but the Power’s run home doesn’t look easy, with the reality being that they’ll likely only win two or three games the remainder of the year.<\/p>\n

Butters has drifted to sixth on our leaderboard, and reality is he’ll struggle to stay inside the top-ten if the Power can only win three of their next 12.<\/p>\n

Back Zak Butters @ $13 with betr <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Value Bet<\/h2>\n

Patrick Cripps<\/strong><\/p>\n

Our value at $251 last week, still our value at $61 this week. I thought the Blues were a chance against the Power, but they did a number on them, with Cripps best on ground off 32 disposals and a goal.<\/p>\n

According to our database, from 2019 to 2025 Cripps has exceeded his projected votes by 22%. In comparison, Nick Daicos is at just 6.5%. Even last year, Cripps polled 19 votes when projected just 12.<\/p>\n

You can easily make a case that Cripps has four best-ons now, and although Carlton has Geelong this week, their next four games after that are Essendon, GWS, West Coast and Richmond.<\/p>\n

Back Patrick Cripps @ $61 with betr <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach<\/h2>\n

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.<\/p>\n

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A big Round 11 with the top of our leaderboard all amongst the votes, while a two-time Brownlow Medalist has made his move over the last three weeks. Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 11 Rank Name Team Votes Odds 1 Nick Daicos Coll 18.41 $4.00 2 Bailey Smith Gee 16.76 $4.00 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":21689,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1238],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21977","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-afl-brownlow-predictor"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21977","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21977"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21977\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21981,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21977\/revisions\/21981"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21689"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21977"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21977"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21977"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}