{"id":21812,"date":"2026-04-07T16:20:24","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T06:20:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net\/?p=21812"},"modified":"2026-04-07T16:20:24","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T06:20:24","slug":"afl-brownlow-predictor-101-roughie-enters-the-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/afl-brownlow-predictor\/afl-brownlow-predictor-101-roughie-enters-the-race\/","title":{"rendered":"AFL Brownlow Predictor – $101 Roughie Enters the Race"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nick Daicos missed for the Pies, while Marcus Bontempelli produced another big game as they remain top two on our Brownlow leaderboard. But there\u2019s a $101 shot currently sitting third who demands serious attention after Round 4.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
Rank<\/th>\r\nName<\/th>\r\nTeam<\/th>\r\nVotes<\/th>\r\nOdds<\/th>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/thead>\r\n
1<\/td>\r\nNick Daicos<\/td>\r\nColl<\/td>\r\n8.54<\/td>\r\n$4.00<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
2<\/td>\r\nMarcus Bontempelli<\/td>\r\nWB<\/td>\r\n8.36<\/td>\r\n$2.50<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
3<\/td>\r\nLuke Davies-Uniacke<\/td>\r\nNM<\/td>\r\n6.71<\/td>\r\n$101<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
4<\/td>\r\nMax Gawn<\/td>\r\nMel<\/td>\r\n6.50<\/td>\r\n$81<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
5<\/td>\r\nZak Butters<\/td>\r\nPA<\/td>\r\n6.43<\/td>\r\n$18<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
6<\/td>\r\nChristian Petracca<\/td>\r\nGC<\/td>\r\n6.06<\/td>\r\n$34<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
7<\/td>\r\nClayton Oliver<\/td>\r\nGWS<\/td>\r\n5.84<\/td>\r\n$151<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
8<\/td>\r\nWill Ashcroft<\/td>\r\nBL<\/td>\r\n5.72<\/td>\r\n$21<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n<\/figure>\r\n\r\n

Best Bet<\/h2>\r\n

Nick Daicos @ $4.00<\/strong> <\/a><\/p>\r\n

Remains on top of our leaderboard after Round 4 despite being a late withdrawal on the weekend. As a result, Daicos has drifted to $4, but is expected to return this week against Fremantle.<\/p>\r\n

The Dockers don\u2019t have a natural tagger for Daicos. Corey Wagner may spend some time on him, but if Daicos is fit he could produce a huge game, having recorded 43 disposals and a goal the last time these sides met.<\/p>\r\n

Lay<\/h2>\r\n

Marcus Bontempelli @ $2.50<\/strong> <\/a><\/p>\r\n

That is a very short price for Bont, and there\u2019s a strong chance we\u2019ll get better value at some stage this season.<\/p>\r\n

The Bulldogs are 4-0, but they face a tough stretch against Hawthorn, Geelong, Sydney and Fremantle. More importantly, there are plenty of teammates capable of taking votes off him.<\/p>\r\n

He can absolutely win it, but $2.50 feels under the odds at this stage.<\/p>\r\n

Value Bet<\/h2>\r\n

Luke Davies-Uniacke @ $101<\/strong> <\/a><\/p>\r\n

There\u2019s every chance LDU was best on in North Melbourne\u2019s comeback win over Carlton, yet his price has drifted from $67 to $101.<\/p>\r\n

Our data has Davies-Uniacke as one of the best pollers of the past six years, polling 40% above expectation since 2019.<\/p>\r\n

North Melbourne now face Brisbane, Richmond and GWS. If they win a couple of those and LDU maintains this level, he\u2019ll remain right up the top of our leaderboard.<\/p>\r\n

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach<\/h2>\r\n

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical.<\/p>\r\n

By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player\u2019s impact on the game.<\/p>\r\n

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively.<\/p>\r\n

Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better reflects how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nick Daicos missed for the Pies, while Marcus Bontempelli produced another big game as they remain top two on our Brownlow leaderboard. But there\u2019s a $101 shot currently sitting third who demands serious attention after Round 4. Rank Name Team Votes Odds 1 Nick Daicos Coll 8.54 $4.00 2 Marcus […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":21689,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1238],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21812","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-afl-brownlow-predictor"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21812","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21812"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21812\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21813,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21812\/revisions\/21813"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21689"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21812"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21812"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21812"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}