{"id":21759,"date":"2026-03-24T08:56:21","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T22:56:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net\/?p=21759"},"modified":"2026-03-24T08:56:21","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T22:56:21","slug":"afl-brownlow-predictor-bont-takes-early-control-after-trac-injury","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/afl-brownlow-predictor\/afl-brownlow-predictor-bont-takes-early-control-after-trac-injury\/","title":{"rendered":"AFL Brownlow Predictor – Bont Takes Early Control After Trac Injury"},"content":{"rendered":"

Marcus Bontempelli moves into Brownlow favouritism after a best on ground performance against the Crows, with the 2026 Brownlow Medal already shaping as a two-horse race very early in the season.<\/p>\n

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 2<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rank<\/th>\nName<\/th>\nTeam<\/th>\nVotes<\/th>\nOdds<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/td>\nChristian Petracca<\/td>\nGC<\/td>\n6.06<\/td>\n$26<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nMarcus Bontempelli<\/td>\nWB<\/td>\n6.04<\/td>\n$3.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nNick Daicos<\/td>\nColl<\/td>\n5.34<\/td>\n$3.50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nClayton Oliver<\/td>\nGWS<\/td>\n4.91<\/td>\n$67<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nJai Newcombe<\/td>\nHaw<\/td>\n4.44<\/td>\n$41<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nJustin McInerney<\/td>\nSyd<\/td>\n4.07<\/td>\n$501<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nTouk Miller<\/td>\nGC<\/td>\n3.43<\/td>\n$101<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nBen King<\/td>\nGC<\/td>\n3.37<\/td>\n$501<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Best Bet<\/h2>\n

Nick Daicos @ $3.50<\/strong> <\/a><\/p>\n

Daicos enters Round 3 fresh off the bye with an opportunity to poll when Collingwood face the Giants at Marvel Stadium on Friday night.<\/p>\n

With Petracca set for an extended period on the sidelines with a hamstring injury, and the Bulldogs having the bye in Round 3, this gives Daicos a huge opportunity to leapfrog the two players currently ahead of him.<\/p>\n

Lay<\/h2>\n

Christian Petracca @ $26<\/strong> <\/a><\/p>\n

An incredible start to his career as a Sun, but Saturday was a major setback for the former Demon with a hamstring injury set to rule him out for 4\u20136 weeks.<\/p>\n

Despite this, bookmakers still have Petracca as one of the favourites for this year\u2019s Brownlow, but it simply won\u2019t happen from here.<\/p>\n

When Petracca returns, it will likely coincide with the return of Matt Rowell, which should see Petracca spend more time forward rather than the predominant midfield role he started the season with.<\/p>\n

Value Bet<\/h2>\n

Jai Newcombe @ $41<\/strong> <\/a><\/p>\n

It\u2019s surprising to see Newcombe at this price given the likelihood of Hawthorn banking a lot of wins this season, along with his polling history and the extended absence of Will Day.<\/p>\n

Newcombe has been a phenomenal poller across his short career. He finished top 10 in 2024 with 24 votes and top 20 last year with 17 votes, despite many projecting him to poll closer to 10.<\/p>\n

His numbers were slightly down in 2025, averaging 22.9 disposals, but he\u2019s started 2026 in strong form with 26 disposals per game across his first three matches. Although Hawthorn have a deep team, there aren\u2019t many players who will consistently steal votes off Newcombe across the season.<\/p>\n

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach<\/h2>\n

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring such as 2.5, 1.5 and 0.5, providing a more nuanced reflection of each player\u2019s impact on the game.<\/p>\n

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Marcus Bontempelli moves into Brownlow favouritism after a best on ground performance against the Crows, with the 2026 Brownlow Medal already shaping as a two-horse race very early in the season. Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 2 Rank Name Team Votes Odds 1 Christian Petracca GC 6.06 $26 2 Marcus Bontempelli […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":21689,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1238],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21759","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-afl-brownlow-predictor"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21759","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21759"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21759\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21761,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21759\/revisions\/21761"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21689"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21759"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21759"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21759"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}