The Pies and Cats are enjoying a week off after victory in the 1st week of the AFL finals. So now 4 teams face elimination this weekend. First up, the top of the table Crows look to get back on track against a strong Hawks side. Meanwhile in QLD, the Gabba is sold out for the Q-Clash on Saturday night as the Suns aim for back to back finals victories for the first time.<\/p>\n
The ladder-leading Crows hit this must-win finals clash with the Hawks. They\u2019re coming off a 24-point finals loss to the Pies at Adelaide Oval, so the response is the story here. Win and they tee up a date with the Cats next week. If there\u2019s a soft spot, it\u2019s volume: they don\u2019t tend to rack up disposals (14th), but they usually don\u2019t need to when they\u2019re winning the territory battle. However, they are 3rd for goals in the AFL, strong territory (5th for inside 50s) and serious heat around the contest (3rd for tackles).<\/p>\n
Form-wise, there are plenty of green lights. Luke Pedlar cashed in with three last start, Josh Worrell found plenty (26), and Rory Laird did what he does (24). Jordan Dawson was quieter than usual with 19 touches, which typically screams bounce-back captain\u2019s game. One key out remains Izak Rankine\u2014suspended for two more\u2014so the Crows will spread the scoring load and lean into forward pressure to generate repeat entries.<\/p>\n
From a betting angle, this profiles as a Crows-controlled game state: territory, pressure and repeat entries. Markets that make sense: Crows H2H or line, team total overs if you think their i50 edge translates, or play it safer with margin bands like Crows 1\u201339 if you expect the Hawks to hang around but not get blown out. Player props: Pedlar anytime (riding form), Worrell 20+ disposals, Laird 25+ as a base, and a Dawson 25+ \u201cbounce-back\u201d ticket if you like a narrative.<\/p>\n
The Hawks roll into this one 15\u20138 and sitting 8th, a bit Jekyll-and-Hyde with a 10\u20131 home split but 5\u20137 away. Recent form\u2019s solid at 3\u20132, and they\u2019re coming off a clutch finals win over the Giants by 19 at Sydney Showgrounds, banging through 16 goals. Ball movement and pressure are their thing\u2014ranked 5th for disposals and 5th for tackles\u2014so if they control tempo and bring heat, they can make the Crows uncomfortable.<\/p>\n
Up forward, the load was shared nicely last game with Macdonald, Gunston and Ginnivan all slotting three, while Jai Newcombe was everywhere with 32 touches. If they get past Adelaide, it\u2019s the Cats next for a grand final spot. Watch the outs, though: Will Day, Maginness, Morrison and Dear (hamstring) are missing, which hurts their depth and mid-forward flexibility.<\/p>\n
Stadium Record<\/strong><\/p>\n Adelaide are 9-1 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. Hawthorn are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.<\/p>\n Head to Head Record<\/strong><\/p>\n In the last 10, the Hawks are 6-4 against the Crows.<\/p>\n Best Bet<\/strong><\/p>\n The head to head is a tough one in this game as I think it could go either way. So I prefer to go with the Over total points. It has saluted in the last 3 matches between these two sides when they play in Adelaide. The met here a month ago and the scoreline was 101-87 with 188 total pts.<\/p>\n Over 166.5 pts = $1.90<\/a><\/p>\n Leg #1 – Luke Pedlar Anytime Goalscorer<\/strong><\/p>\n Luke Pedlar has kicked 1+ goals in each of his last five home appearances. He\u2019s hit form with 3 goals in both of his last two games, giving him 8 across his last 4, and looks dangerous around goal.<\/p>\n Leg #2 – Jack Ginnivan Anytime Goalscorer<\/strong><\/p>\n Jack Ginnivan has kicked 1+ goals in each of Hawthorn’s last six interstate matches. He nailed 3 last week and has 5 in his last 2, so he\u2019s a reliable go-to forward option.<\/p>\n Leg #3 – Jordan Dawson Anytime Goalscorer<\/strong><\/p>\n Jordan Dawson has kicked 1+ goals in four of Adelaide’s last five home matches. He had a quieter game last week but still managed a major, and as captain in a do-or-die final, expect him to lift.<\/p>\n Leg #4 (Value) – Jarman Impey 25+ Disposals<\/strong><\/p>\n Jarman Impey has cleared 25+ disposals in three of Hawthorn’s last four games. He racked up 28 last week and has strong knowledge of this ground from his Port Adelaide days, making him a good value pick.<\/p>\n Luke Pedlar Anytime Goalscorer \/ Jack Ginnivan Anytime Goalscorer \/ Jordan Dawson Anytime Goalscorer \/ Jarman Impey 25+ Disposals = $11.00<\/a><\/p>\n The Lions are back at home for the biggest Q-Clash yet against the Suns. Their game is built around control and territory: they\u2019re ranked 1st in the AFL for disposals, 2nd for clearances and 2nd for inside-50s, so when they get rolling the ball basically lives in their half. The one knock is pressure\u2014tackling sits down at 15th\u2014so they\u2019ll want to win it first and keep it off the deck rather than turn it into a scrap, which the Suns would enjoy.<\/p>\n They\u2019re 3\u20132 across the last five and are fresh off a tough qualifying-final loss to the Cats at the MCG (112\u201374), but there were still plenty of individual signs. Dayne Zorko went nuts with 35 touches, Lachie Neale and Will Ashcroft both had 30+, and Josh Dunkley piled on 30 as well. Cam Rayner found the goals with three, which is exactly the sort of spark they\u2019ll want to carry home.<\/p>\n One watch is team availability with a lot of key players on the sidelines. They\u2019re set to be without Answerth, Coleman, Doedee, Hipwood, McCarthy, Neale and Payne – significant names that hit both ends of the ground and the midfield rotations. Expect even more on-ball minutes for the likes of Zorko, Dunkley and Ashcroft, and a heavier forward workload for the smalls and mediums. The home split (7\u20134) still points to a lift back at their home deck.<\/p>\n The Suns hit this Q-Clash with a genuine tailwind. The headline is that gritty elimination final win in Perth\u2014beating Freo by a single point for the club\u2019s first finals victory in 15 years. David Swallow iced it with a late behind with nine seconds left, and they still found 11 goals on the road. Confidence box: tick.<\/p>\n Stat profile screams territory and damage: 1st in the AFL for inside-50s, 4th for clearances, 4th for goals. When they surge from stoppage, they don\u2019t just get it in, they turn entries into scores. The split is real too: 9\u20132 at home, 6\u20136 away, so this trip to Brisbane is a proper test, but their style travels when the contest is hot especially with Rowell and Anderson in the side.<\/p>\n Form-wise, the pillars are in place. Humphrey (3 goals last game) offers a livewire target, Matt Rowell was a bull with 34 touches and six tackles, and Noah Anderson rolled to 32 disposals in a classy display. That inside combo is the key to matching the Lions\u2019 midfield depth.<\/p>\n Stadium Record<\/strong><\/p>\n Brisbane are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Gabba. Gold Coast are 3-18 at this venue since 2010.<\/p>\n Head to Head Record<\/strong><\/p>\n In the last 10 meetings, the Lions hold a 8-2 record against the Suns.<\/p>\n Best Bet<\/strong><\/p>\n This should be a massive Q-Clash between these two rivals and I don’t see a big margin. Brisbane are missing some key players, especially Neale and I think that showed last week in a big loss. The Suns will be fired up here. They have a poor record at the Gabba but as last week showed, they have a lot of confidence. So I will be close and the Suns cover the 8.5 start. They have a 7-1 ATS record against teams that won the GF in the previous season.<\/p>\nAFL Same Game Multi – Crows v Hawks<\/h4>\n
Brisbane Lions (3rd) vs Gold Coast Suns (7th)<\/h3>\n