Only 3 rounds remain and the AFL top 8 is far from settled. Round 22 starts with a massive clash between the Hawks and Pies at the G on Thursday night footy.<\/p>\n
The Hawks are ticking along with a 13\u20137 record but just came unstuck at Adelaide Oval, going down 101\u201387 to the Crows despite Jack Gunston nabbing four majors. They\u2019ve been a fortress at home (8\u20131) but only scrapped together five wins on the road (5\u20136), and they\u2019re sitting seventh on the ladder. Their engine room is solid – they\u2019re fourth in the AFL for disposals and third for tackling – so if they can bottle that intensity for four quarters, they\u2019ll fancy their chances against the Magpies. With three wins in their last five, expect Hawthorn to bounce back hard in this one, especially with a top 8 spot on the line.<\/p>\n
Steele Sidebottom hits the 350-game milestone as the Pies look to bounce back from a 27-point loss to the Lions at the MCG. Collingwood sit second on the ladder at 15\u20135, and they\u2019ve been deadly on the road (7\u20132) as well as at home (8\u20133). They\u2019re one of the best for both goals (fifth in the AFL) and tackling (fourth), even if they\u2019ve stumbled just once lately. With two wins in their last five and a star veteran celebrating a huge career mark, expect Collingwood to bring the heat against the Hawks at the G.<\/p>\n
Stadium Record<\/strong><\/p>\n Hawthorn are 7-3 in their last 10 games at MCG. In their last 10 games at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Collingwood hold a 7-3 record.<\/p>\n Head to Head Record<\/strong><\/p>\n In the last 10, the Hawks hold a 6-4 record.<\/p>\n Best Bet<\/strong><\/p>\n I’m going with the omen bet as Sidebottom brings up 350 games and he loves playing the Hawks. He’s picked up 27 or more touches in his last 7 against them. He’s also beaten 20+ in his last 2 games as well.<\/p>\n Steele Sidebottom 20+ Disposals = $1.60<\/a><\/p>\n Same Game Multi<\/strong><\/p>\n In his pursuit of a first Brownlow, Nick Daicos is on fire at the moment and has been hitting the scoreboard too. He’s kicked a goal in his last 8 games when the Pies are at home. I also like the Under, it’s 7-0 in the Hawks last 7 games at the MCG and Jeremy Howe’s return should fix up the Pies backline.<\/p>\n Under 161.5 pts \/ Sidebottom 20+ Disposals \/ Nick Daicos Anytime Goalscorer = $5.40<\/a><\/p>\n The Cats are on a tear right now – three wins in a row and fresh off that 88-point demolition of Port Adelaide at Kardinia Park (they piled on 23 goals, with Jeremy Cameron bagging six, Jack Martin four as sub and Shannon Neale three). Sitting fourth at 14\u20136, they\u2019ve been tough both home (8\u20132) and away (6\u20134), and their engine room is firing, ranking second in the AFL for goals, fifth for inside-50s and fifth for tackles. Heading into this one against the Bombers, expect Geelong\u2019s firepower and pressure to test Essendon all over the ground.<\/p>\n The Bombers are in a world of pain, sitting 15th on 6\u201313 and stuck on a nine-game losing skid after going down 68\u201354 to the Swans at the SCG. They\u2019ve been solid at disposal (top of the AFL for handballs and kicks), but everything else has let them down – 16th for clearances and goals, and 15th for inside-50s. They\u2019ve only won twice away (2\u20138) and are just 4\u20135 at home, so facing a rampaging Cats outfit is going to be a massive challenge. Expect Essendon to try and scrap it out through the middle, but unless they find another gear, Geelong\u2019s firepower will be too much.<\/p>\n Stadium Record<\/strong><\/p>\n Geelong are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue. Essendon are 1-2 at this venue since 2010.<\/p>\n Head to Head Record<\/strong><\/p>\n In the last 10 meetings, the Cats hold a 8-2 record against the Bombers.<\/p>\n Best Bet<\/strong><\/p>\n I think the Cats are trying to get Cameron to 100 goals and this is another great matchup. He’s kicked 6 goals in his last 2 and I can see him getting near 10+ goals again.<\/p>\n Jeremy Cameron 6+ Goals = $2.20<\/a><\/p>\n The Tigers are having a horror year at 5\u201315, and that 107\u201323 drubbing by the Suns at Carrara shows just how rough it\u2019s been. They\u2019ve lost two straight and only picked up two wins in their last five, with home form sitting at 4\u20136 and an abysmal 1\u20139 on the road. Richmond are dead last in clearances, disposals, goals and tackles, so you\u2019d back the Saints to boss the midfield and pile on points. Unless the Tigers can somehow shake off these woes, this one\u2019s a tall order for them.<\/p>\n The Saints have a bit of work to do, but they\u2019ve found some form with back-to-back wins after downing North Melbourne by nine points at Docklands (11 goals on the board). Sitting 14th at 7\u201313, they\u2019ve been solid enough at home (5\u20137) but shaky away (2\u20136), and their inside-50 entries have been a concern (14th in the AFL). With two wins in their last five and a chance to extend that streak, look for St Kilda to use that momentum and pressure the Tigers, especially in front of their home crowd.<\/p>\n Stadium Record<\/strong><\/p>\n Richmond are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. St Kilda are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue.<\/p>\n Head to Head Record<\/strong><\/p>\n The Saints are 4-1 against the Tigers in the last 5 meetings.<\/p>\n Best Bet<\/strong><\/p>\n The Under is 8-1 in the Tigers last 9 at the G and this should be low scoring too.<\/p>\n Under 160.5 = $1.87<\/a><\/p>\n The Lions are riding high after thumping Collingwood by 27 points at the MCG in Round 21, kicking 14 goals (shoutout to Logan Morris for bagging six and Henry Smith with three). They sit third on the ladder at 14\u20135, and they\u2019ve been almost unbeatable on the road (8\u20131\u20132) and solid at home (6\u20133). Their midfield has been a machine – top of the AFL for clearances and second for disposals – and they\u2019ve been strong getting it inside 50 (fourth), though they\u2019ve had some trouble sticking tackles (16th). With four wins in their last five and confidence sky-high, Brisbane will look to keep the momentum rolling against the Swans.<\/p>\n The Swans have just snapped a rough patch with a 14-point win over Essendon at the SCG, kicking nine goals to get back on track. They\u2019re sitting 10th on a 10\u201310 record, splitting home and away at 5\u20135 and winning four of their last five. While they\u2019ve shown they can grind out results, their disposal game has been shaky – 16th in the AFL – which could get exposed against the Lions\u2019 dominant midfield.\u00a0<\/p>\n Stadium Record<\/strong><\/p>\n Brisbane are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Sydney are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.<\/p>\n Head to Head Record<\/strong><\/p>\n In the last 10, the Lions hold a 7-3 record.<\/p>\n Best Bet<\/strong><\/p>\n The key in this one will be the midfield battle and Sydney have a lot of talent with Gulden, Heeney and Warner. So I think they keep this under a 4 goal margin. They’ll want some revenge after the Grand Final defeat and almost beat the Lions at the Gabba last year.<\/p>\n Sydney Swans +24.5 = $1.90<\/a><\/p>\n The Blues have hit a rough patch, dropping two in a row after getting beaten 94\u201367 by the Dockers at Perth Stadium. Sitting 13th on a 7\u201313 record, they\u2019ve only managed one win in their last five and have struggled to hit the scoreboard – 14th in the AFL for goals kicked. On the bright side, they\u2019re hard at the contest, sitting fourth for clearances and second for tackles. With a 4\u20136 home record and 3\u20137 away, they\u2019ll need to lean on that midfield grit to slow down the Suns if they want to climb off the bottom.<\/p>\n The Suns are on a roll, sitting sixth on the ladder at 13\u20136 and fresh off an 84-point demolition of Richmond at Carrara (16 goals in total, with Ben King bagging four and Bailey Humphrey three). They\u2019ve won four of their last five and are particularly tough to beat at home (8\u20131), though they\u2019ve been only even on the road (5\u20135). Their engine room is elite – second in the AFL for clearances, third for inside-50s and fourth for goals kicked – so expect them to dominate the contest and pile on the pressure against a Blues side that\u2019s been scrambling lately.<\/p>\n Stadium Record<\/strong><\/p>\n Carlton are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue. Gold Coast are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.<\/p>\n Head to Head Record<\/strong><\/p>\n The Blues are 3-2 against the Suns in the last 5.<\/p>\n Best Bet<\/strong><\/p>\n The Under is 4-0 when these two play at night and the Suns aren’t the best travelling team in the AFL.<\/p>\n Under 171.5 = $1.87<\/a><\/p>\n The Power have had a rough season at 8\u201312, sitting 11th and on a three-game skid after getting thrashed 153\u201365 by the Cats at Kardinia Park – even Mitchell Georgiades\u2019 three goals couldn\u2019t stop the rout. They\u2019ve only managed one win in their last five, have been solid at home (6\u20134) but dreadful on the road (2\u20138), and they\u2019re struggling to win the ball (14th in disposals) or finish it off (15th in goals kicked). Going up against the Dockers, Port Adelaide will need a massive lift if they want to snap this slide.<\/p>\n The Dockers are flying high on a four-game winning streak, fresh off a 27-point win over Carlton at Perth Stadium where they piled on 15 goals (shoutout to Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss and Patrick Voss for bagging three each). Sitting fifth at 14\u20136, they\u2019ve been tough both home (8\u20132) and away (6\u20134), though they\u2019ve had some trouble winning the ball – 15th in disposals. Still, with four wins in their last five, expect Fremantle\u2019s firepower and confidence to keep rolling against a Port Adelaide side that\u2019s been struggling, especially on the road.<\/p>\n Stadium Record<\/strong><\/p>\n In their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval, Port Adelaide hold a 4-6 record. Fremantle are 3-12 at this venue since 2010.<\/p>\n Head to Head Record<\/strong><\/p>\n In the last 5 meetings, the Power hold a 3-2 record against the Dockers.<\/p>\n Best Bet<\/strong><\/p>\n Port has an impressive 7-0 home record against the Dockers and if they can start well, I think they can cover a 27 point margin.<\/p>\n Port Adelaide +27.5 = $1.90<\/a><\/p>\n The Giants have been solid lately with four wins from five, but they hit a speed bump in their last outing at Docklands, getting thumped 132\u201344 by the Bulldogs. Sitting eighth on a 13\u20137 record, they\u2019ve been consistent both away (7\u20134) and at home (6\u20133), yet they\u2019ve struggled around the stoppages – 15th in clearances – which can hurt them against teams that dominate the middle. After that heavy loss, expect GWS to sharpen up through the midfield and lean on their momentum as they take on North Melbourne.<\/p>\n The Kangaroos are really struggling this season at 4\u201315, sitting rock bottom on the ladder and on a six-game losing streak after that 78\u201369 defeat to St Kilda at Docklands (with Nick Larkey bagging three goals). They haven\u2019t won in their last five and have been terrible with entries inside 50 – dead last in the AFL. They\u2019re a dismal 2\u20138 away and only 2\u20131\u20137 at home, so taking on a fired-up Giants side will be a tall order unless North Melbourne can find some spark.<\/p>\n Stadium Record<\/strong><\/p>\n GWS are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. North Melbourne are 1-0 at this venue since 2010.<\/p>\n Head to Head Record<\/strong><\/p>\n The Giants are 4-1 against the Kangaroos in the last 5.<\/p>\n Best Bet<\/strong><\/p>\n North showed a bit of shinboner spirit last week against the Saints and they’re 4-0 ATS when they face the Giants away from home.<\/p>\n North Melbourne +49.5 = $1.90<\/a><\/p>\n Fresh off the bombshell news that premiership coach Simon Goodwin was shown the door this week, the Demons will look to bounce back when they take on the Bulldogs. They\u2019re sitting 12th at 7\u201313 but just snapped a two-game skid with an 83-point demolition of West Coast at Docklands – 21 goals on the board, including four from Bayley Fritsch and three each from Harrison Petty and Harvey Langford. Even so, they\u2019ve been patchy in the midfield (14th for clearances) and sloppy in the tackle (14th again), and their form on the road (2\u20137) has been woeful compared to the D\u2019s more solid 5\u20136 at home. With only two wins in their last five, expect Melbourne to be fired up under interim leadership, but consistency will be the question against a Bulldogs side.<\/p>\n The Bulldogs are buzzing after that massive 88-point drubbing of the Giants at Docklands, piling on 19 goals – including five each from Aaron Naughton and Sam Darcy, plus three from Lachlan McNeil. They\u2019ve won two in a row and sit ninth on a 12\u20138 record, looking good both at home (6\u20134) and away (6\u20134). Their midfield\u2019s a well-oiled machine – third in the AFL for clearances and disposals – and they\u2019re lethal up forward (top of the league for goals and second for inside-50s), though they could tighten up their tackling (14th). Against the Demons, look for the Dogs to keep firing at both ends of the ground and stretch their winning streak to three.<\/p>\n Stadium Record<\/strong><\/p>\n Melbourne are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue. The Bulldogs are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue.<\/p>\n Head to Head Record<\/strong><\/p>\n In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.<\/p>\n Best Bet<\/strong><\/p>\n Teams usually step up after their coach is sacked so look for the Dees to play well. But the Dogs need to win for their top 8 hopes as well. So I like the chances of the Over, it’s 7-0 in this matchup and the Doggies usually play in high scoring affairs.<\/p>\nGeelong Cats (4th) vs Essendon (15th)<\/h3>\n
Richmond (16th) vs St Kilda (14th)<\/h3>\n
Brisbane Lions (3rd) vs Sydney Swans (10th)<\/h3>\n
Carlton (13th) vs Gold Coast Suns (6th)<\/h3>\n
Port Adelaide (11th) vs Fremantle (5th)<\/h3>\n
GWS Giants (8th) vs North Melbourne (17th)<\/h3>\n
Melbourne (12th) vs Western Bulldogs (9th)<\/h3>\n