{"id":19663,"date":"2025-07-14T23:26:17","date_gmt":"2025-07-14T23:26:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net\/?p=19663"},"modified":"2025-07-14T23:26:17","modified_gmt":"2025-07-14T23:26:17","slug":"afl-brownlow-predictor-round-18-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/afl-brownlow-predictor\/afl-brownlow-predictor-round-18-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"AFL Brownlow Predictor – Round 18 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Just when we thought it was Nick Daicos\u2019 Brownlow to lose after Round 17, a group of contenders put up their hands with big performances in Round 18.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Pos<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n

\n

Player<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n

\n

Club<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n

\n

Votes<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n

\n

Odds<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

N. Daicos<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Coll<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

21.50<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$2.60<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

2<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

N. Anderson<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

GC<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

19.75<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$6.00<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

3<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Z.Butters<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

PA<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

19.50<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$41<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

4<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

C.Serong<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Fre<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

18.50<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$17<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

5<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

B. Smith<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Gee<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

16.75<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$6.50<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

=6<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

J.Dawson<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Ade<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

16.25<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$4.00<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

=6<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

M.Holmes<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Gee<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

16.25<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$81<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

8<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

H.McCluggage<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

BL<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

16.00<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$71<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Best Bet<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Noah Anderson @ $6<\/b><\/a><\/b><\/p>\n

Could Josh Daicos end up costing his brother a Brownlow? It\u2019s unclear whether McRae pulls the trigger and throws Josh into the midfield off the back of that final quarter, but if he does, Nick may no longer be polling uncontested.<\/p>\n

Noah Anderson was massive in Gold Coast\u2019s win over Collingwood, taking the honours in what could be the Brownlow-defining game. With Touk Miller likely to miss a few weeks, one of Anderson\u2019s biggest vote-sharing threats is out of the picture.<\/p>\n

The Suns skipper should have more chances to poll late in the year. Midfielders post big numbers against the Crows, as Bontempelli showed on the weekend, and the Suns still have Richmond, Carlton, Essendon and Port Adelaide to come. He should be the clear second favourite.<\/p>\n

\n

Lay<\/b><\/h3>\n

Bailey Smith @ $6.50<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

Feel like he\u2019s lost all momentum and won\u2019t poll in the last month with losses in Round 15 and 18, a bye in Round 16 and missing in Round 17.<\/span><\/p>\n

Geelong do have an incredible run home where they should win five of the last six games, but with how Smith has played in his last two games along with his poor polling history, I don\u2019t think there\u2019s any guarantee he\u2019ll be the one polling the votes in those wins.<\/span><\/p>\n

In fifth place on our leaderboard now with a bit of a buffer from him and the top-four, it will take an almighty effort for him to win from here.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Value<\/b><\/h3>\n

Zak Butters @ $41<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

The Power might not win many more games, but is Zak Butters really a $41 chance? It\u2019s rare to see a genuine contender on our leaderboard priced this far out.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s just two votes off the leader and one of four players in the breakaway pack.<\/p>\n

With Rozee and Horne-Francis out, Port\u2019s path gets tougher, but if they win even three of their last six, it\u2019ll likely be on the back of Butters. That\u2019s enough to keep him right in the hunt.<\/p>\n

\n

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach<\/b><\/h3>\n

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player\u2019s impact on the game.<\/span><\/p>\n

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Just when we thought it was Nick Daicos\u2019 Brownlow to lose after Round 17, a group of contenders put up their hands with big performances in Round 18. Pos Player Club Votes Odds 1 N. Daicos Coll 21.50 $2.60 2 N. Anderson GC 19.75 $6.00 3 Z.Butters PA 19.50 $41 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":19411,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1238],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19663","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-afl-brownlow-predictor"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19663","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19663"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19663\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19669,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19663\/revisions\/19669"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19411"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19663"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19663"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19663"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}