It all comes down to this. The 2025 State of Origin decider heads to Stadium Australia in Sydney, with the series locked at 1-1. NSW are favourites at $1.40 to win on home soil, while QLD are $3 outsiders, looking to spoil the party and claim another famous series victory.<\/p>\n
NSW coach Laurie Daley has named an unchanged starting side for the State of Origin decider on July 9 at Accor Stadium, sticking with the 17 that narrowly went down to Queensland in Game Two.<\/p>\n
The Blues took out Game One with an 18-6 win in Brisbane but couldn\u2019t complete the series in Perth, falling 26-24 after a spirited second-half comeback. Trailing 26-6 at halftime, the Blues piled on 18 unanswered points, with Brian To’o bagging a hat-trick and both Stephen Crichton and Angus Crichton also finding the line.<\/p>\n
Goalkicking was again an issue, just as it was in Game One. With Nathan Cleary nursing a groin injury, Zac Lomax took over the duties in Perth and landed just two of five conversion attempts.<\/p>\n
Despite injury clouds, key playmakers Cleary (groin) and Jarome Luai (infection) have both been named and are expected to take the field. Winger Brian To\u2019o, who has been managing a hamstring issue in recent weeks, also suffered a minor knee concern in Thursday night\u2019s match against the Bulldogs. He played through the discomfort with strapping and iced the knee post-game. With nine days to recover, the Blues remain confident he\u2019ll be fit for Game Three.<\/p>\n
Daley has also named Bulldogs winger Jacob Kiraz as 18th man, Panthers forward Lindsay Smith in the No.19 jersey, and Knights centre Bradman Best in the No.20 spot, providing cover across multiple positions.<\/p>\n
Queensland bounced back in classic fashion after a poor Game One showing, turning the tide with a gritty 26-24 win in wet conditions in Perth \u2014 their first-ever Origin win in Western Australia. The Maroons exploded out of the gates in Game Two, piling on 26 first-half points before going scoreless in the second half. Despite the drop in intensity, their early dominance proved enough to square the series.<\/p>\n
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow continued his strong Origin form with two tries, while new skipper Cameron Munster rose to the occasion, scoring a try in the 30th minute and earning Man of the Match honours in his first game as captain. Val Holmes was faultless with the boot, slotting all four conversions \u2014 a crucial difference in the narrow two-point win.<\/p>\n
Billy Slater has named a mix of experience and youth for the decider. Veteran prop Josh Papalii returns from Origin retirement to play his 24th game for Queensland, replacing Moeaki Fotuaika in the starting pack. Debutant Gehamat Shibasaki earns his first Maroons jersey following standout form for the Broncos and slots into the centres, with Hamiso moving to fullback to cover the injured Kalyn Ponga.<\/p>\n
Kurt Capewell retains his starting back-row spot after a strong performance in Game Two, while Pat Carrigan and Jeremiah Nanai will once again come off the bench to bring energy and aggression, mirroring the strategy that worked early in Game Two.<\/p>\n
Reece Walsh, J\u2019maine Hopgood and Josh Kerr are part of an extended squad for the first time this series, offering depth and flexibility ahead of what\u2019s expected to be a brutal decider in Sydney.<\/p>\n
In their last 10 games at Stadium Australia, both the Blues and Maroons have won 5 games each. QLD won the last clash in Game 1 last year.<\/p>\n
In the last 10 State of Origin meetings, the series is tied 5-5. NSW won 3 of the last 4, including last year\u2019s decider.<\/p>\n
Both teams have strike power, but with the pressure of a decider, I’m leaning towards a tighter contest. The Under also has a great record in Game 3, going 5-0 since 2019.<\/p>\n
Under 43.5 pts = $1.85<\/a><\/p>\n We know the Queenslanders love an underdog tag and that should work nicely into their favour. QLD are 5-1 as an Origin underdog and the underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 Origin games. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is back at fullback and will be dangerous. He comes off 4 tries at club level against Souths and scored a double in Game 2.<\/p>\n Maroons +7.5 \/ Under 43.5 pts \/ Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Anytime Tryscorer = $7.50<\/a><\/p>\nSame Game Multi<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Man Of The Match<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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Best Bet<\/strong><\/h3>\n