{"id":19511,"date":"2025-06-23T23:35:16","date_gmt":"2025-06-23T23:35:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net\/?p=19511"},"modified":"2025-06-23T23:36:07","modified_gmt":"2025-06-23T23:36:07","slug":"afl-brownlow-predictor-round-15-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/afl-brownlow-predictor\/afl-brownlow-predictor-round-15-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"AFL Brownlow Predictor – Round 15 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

A top-four have pulled away from the chasing pack, with a double-digits chance taking the lead after a big Round 15 performance.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pos<\/th>\nPlayer<\/th>\nClub<\/th>\nVotes<\/th>\nOdds<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>\nC.Serong<\/td>\nFre<\/td>\n17.25<\/td>\n$13<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nB.Smith<\/td>\nGeel<\/td>\n16.75<\/td>\n$3.50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nN.Daicos<\/td>\nColl<\/td>\n16.50<\/td>\n$3.75<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nN.Anderson<\/td>\nGC<\/td>\n15.75<\/td>\n$13<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nZ.Butters<\/td>\nPA<\/td>\n14.50<\/td>\n$67<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
=6<\/td>\nH.McCluggage<\/td>\nBL<\/td>\n14.25<\/td>\n$34<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
=6<\/td>\nM.Holmes<\/td>\nGeel<\/td>\n13.50<\/td>\n$81<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nJ.Dawson<\/td>\nAdel<\/td>\n13.25<\/td>\n$4.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Best Bet<\/b><\/h3>\n

Nick Daicos @ $3.75<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

Caleb Serong was my best bet last week at $23, and although I\u2019m tempted to double-down at $13 as he takes the lead after Round 15, I just can\u2019t ignore Nick Daicos from here.<\/span><\/p>\n

A big move by the Magpie with three votes against the Saints, and now Daicos will face the Eagles and Blues in the next fortnight where he could realistically poll 6 more votes.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fremantle should make it six straight when they host the Saints in Round 16, but Serong did struggle with the Windhager tag when they met in Round 8 with his worst output of the season.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Lay<\/b><\/h3>\n

Jordan Dawson @ $4.00<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

Has been my lay more often than not this season, and I\u2019m staggered to see Dawson\u2019s price only fade 25 cents off the back of monster games from Daicos, Anderson and Serong.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Crows captain remains in the top-eight on the leaderboard off the back of the bye, but he\u2019s got plenty of work to do to chase the leading pack from this position.<\/span><\/p>\n

Now playing more forward-time, Dawson averages just 20.4 disposals in Adelaide\u2019s last five wins. <\/span><\/p>\n

That\u2019s not going to cut it.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Value<\/b><\/h3>\n

Zak Butters @ $67<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

Bad loss by the Power, but don\u2019t be surprised if you see Butters feature in the minor votes off the back of an equal game-high 28 disposals and a goal.<\/span><\/p>\n

Butters remains in our top-five of the leaderboard after Round 15, with the Power facing the hapless Carlton on their home turf in Round 16.<\/span><\/p>\n

Unsure how many games the Power are capable of winning in the run home which is one of the reasons we see Butters at this price, but happy to play at $67 to find out.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach<\/b><\/h3>\n

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player\u2019s impact on the game.<\/span><\/p>\n

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A top-four have pulled away from the chasing pack, with a double-digits chance taking the lead after a big Round 15 performance. Pos Player Club Votes Odds 1 C.Serong Fre 17.25 $13 2 B.Smith Geel 16.75 $3.50 3 N.Daicos Coll 16.50 $3.75 4 N.Anderson GC 15.75 $13 5 Z.Butters PA […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":19411,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1238],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19511","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-afl-brownlow-predictor"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19511","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19511"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19511\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19518,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19511\/revisions\/19518"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19411"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19511"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19511"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19511"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}