{"id":19308,"date":"2025-06-10T06:39:07","date_gmt":"2025-06-10T06:39:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net\/?p=19308"},"modified":"2025-06-10T06:39:07","modified_gmt":"2025-06-10T06:39:07","slug":"afl-brownlow-predictor-round-13-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/afl-brownlow-predictor\/afl-brownlow-predictor-round-13-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"AFL Brownlow Predictor – Round 13 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

While the market has three clear contenders – Smith, Daicos and Dawson – our Brownlow Predictor has the market a lot closer. A new contender has emerged from outside the top-8 into equal second on our leaderboard – and he\u2019s paying $41.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pos<\/th>\nPlayer<\/th>\nClub<\/th>\nVotes<\/th>\nOdds<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>\nBailey Smith<\/td>\nGeelong<\/td>\n15<\/td>\n$3.75<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nHugh McCluggage<\/td>\nBrisbane<\/td>\n14.25<\/td>\n$34<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nNoah Anderson<\/td>\nGold Coast<\/td>\n14<\/td>\n$16<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nZak Butters<\/td>\nPort Adelaide<\/td>\n13.75<\/td>\n$41<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nNick Daicos<\/td>\nCollingwood<\/td>\n13.50<\/td>\n$4.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
=6<\/td>\nJordan Dawson<\/td>\nAdelaide<\/td>\n12.75<\/td>\n$3.75<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
=6<\/td>\nLachie Neale<\/td>\nBrisbane<\/td>\n12.75<\/td>\n$26<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nMax Gawn<\/td>\nMelbourne<\/td>\n12<\/td>\n$41<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Best Bet<\/b><\/h3>\n

Bailey Smith @ $3.75<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

Assuming the hamstring isn\u2019t as bad as reported, it\u2019s a nice run home for Bailey Smith and the Cats.<\/span><\/p>\n

With the trailing pack unable to put a dint into the lead while Smith sat out Geelong\u2019s win over the Suns, Smith is likely to return to take on Essendon on the weekend – a team ranked 15th in conceding disposals to their opposition.<\/span><\/p>\n

After that, Geelong play five of their next seven games at GMHBA Stadium with North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium one of their away games. If he can get on the park and stay on the park, he\u2019s in the box seat.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Lay<\/b><\/h3>\n

Nick Daicos @ $4<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

Definitely not a \u2018cannot win it\u2019 lay – just circumstantial with a better price around the corner for Nick Daicos.<\/span><\/p>\n

Won\u2019t poll on the weekend after being tagged by Ed Langdon, and now Collingwood enter the bye in Round 14.<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

On the other side of that, Marcus Windhager will be waiting for Nick Daicos in Round 15 and if the Saint can do a job on the gun midfielder, we could see Daicos\u2019 price double over the next fortnight.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Value<\/b><\/h3>\n

Zak Butters @ $41<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

The issue is will the Power win enough games in the back-end of the season, but I\u2019m happy to take this price for Zak Butters to find out.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another 3 votes on the weekend for Butters, who is a proven poller with 27 votes in 2023 and 29 votes last year.<\/span><\/p>\n

Butters\u2019 contested possessions are well up in 2025 on what was a career-best last year, ranking him second in the AFL, along with his clearance numbers which also has him top-five in the competition.<\/span><\/p>\n

The concern is can the Power win enough games? Well they\u2019ve got three winnable games on their home deck the next three weeks against Melbourne, Sydney and Carlton – if he continues these numbers, he\u2019ll be into single figures after Round 16.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach<\/b><\/h3>\n

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player\u2019s impact on the game.<\/span><\/p>\n

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

While the market has three clear contenders – Smith, Daicos and Dawson – our Brownlow Predictor has the market a lot closer. A new contender has emerged from outside the top-8 into equal second on our leaderboard – and he\u2019s paying $41.\u00a0 Pos Player Club Votes Odds 1 Bailey Smith […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":19411,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1238],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19308","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-afl-brownlow-predictor"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19308","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19308"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19308\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19312,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19308\/revisions\/19312"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19411"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19308"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19308"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19308"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}