{"id":19173,"date":"2025-06-03T00:13:51","date_gmt":"2025-06-03T00:13:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net\/?p=19173"},"modified":"2025-06-03T00:16:02","modified_gmt":"2025-06-03T00:16:02","slug":"afl-brownlow-predictor-round-12-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/afl-brownlow-predictor\/afl-brownlow-predictor-round-12-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"AFL Brownlow Predictor – Round 12 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

While the market has three clear contenders – Smith, Daicos and Dawson – our Brownlow Predictor has the market a lot closer. A new contender has emerged from outside the top-8 into equal second on our leaderboard – and he\u2019s paying $41.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pos<\/th>\nPlayer<\/th>\nClub<\/th>\nVotes<\/th>\nOdds<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>\nBailey Smith<\/td>\nGeelong<\/td>\n15<\/td>\n$3.25<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
=2<\/td>\nHugh McCluggage<\/td>\nBrisbane<\/td>\n14<\/td>\n$41<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
=2<\/td>\nNoah Anderson<\/td>\nGold Coast<\/td>\n14<\/td>\n$16<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nNick Daicos<\/td>\nCollingwood<\/td>\n13.5<\/td>\n$4.50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nLachie Neale<\/td>\nBrisbane<\/td>\n12.75<\/td>\n$21<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nJordan Dawson<\/td>\nAdelaidle<\/td>\n12.25<\/td>\n$6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nMax Gawn<\/td>\nMelbourne<\/td>\n12<\/td>\n$34<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nCaleb Serong<\/td>\nFremantle<\/td>\n11.75<\/td>\n$26<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Best Bet<\/b><\/h3>\n

Noah Anderson @ $16<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

Our value at $26 after Round 11 – he\u2019s now our best bet.<\/span><\/p>\n

A monstrous game by the Gold Coast skipper in their Round 12 loss, with 39 disposals, 22 contested, 12 clearances and 8 score involvements – and with no genuine standout for the Dockers, Anderson is a fair chance to record 3 votes.<\/span><\/p>\n

That\u2019s now six games with 32+ disposals for Anderson, while he\u2019s produced 35 clearances in the last three weeks. Think we\u2019d see a much shorter price if Anderson wasn\u2019t off broadway.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Lay<\/b><\/h3>\n

Jordan Dawson @ $6<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

The traders have effectively labeled this a three-horse race based on the current odds and it\u2019s simply not true.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dawson is one of three players in single figure odds with Noah Anderson the fourth favourite but at a distant $16.<\/span><\/p>\n

Highly unlikely that Dawson polls on the weekend in one of his weaker performances of the season despite the score-line, and on our leaderboard the Adelaide captain is in sixth place with 11 players within striking distance below him.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Value<\/b><\/h3>\n

Hugh McCluggage @ $41<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

Never been a huge poller, but he\u2019s having a career year and most importantly his contested ball numbers are well up on previous years.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prior to 2025, McCluggage\u2019s best contested possession output was 9.5 per game in 2023, but he\u2019s going at 11.8 this season ranking him 21st in the competition – he was 66th in this category last year.<\/span><\/p>\n

To go with this, McCluggage is recording a career-high in disposals, clearances and score involvements. Could he be a Brownlow bolter in 2025?<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach<\/b><\/h3>\n

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player\u2019s impact on the game.<\/span><\/p>\n

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

While the market has three clear contenders – Smith, Daicos and Dawson – our Brownlow Predictor has the market a lot closer. A new contender has emerged from outside the top-8 into equal second on our leaderboard – and he\u2019s paying $41.\u00a0 Pos Player Club Votes Odds 1 Bailey Smith […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":19411,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1238],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19173","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-afl-brownlow-predictor"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19173","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19173"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19173\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19190,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19173\/revisions\/19190"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19411"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19173"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19173"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19173"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}