{"id":19018,"date":"2025-05-27T00:13:52","date_gmt":"2025-05-27T00:13:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net\/?p=19018"},"modified":"2025-05-27T00:13:52","modified_gmt":"2025-05-27T00:13:52","slug":"afl-brownlow-predictor-round-11-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/afl-brownlow-predictor\/afl-brownlow-predictor-round-11-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"AFL Brownlow Predictor – Round 11 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

We\u2019ve got less than two votes separating the top-eight of our Brownlow leaderboard after Round 11.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pos<\/th>\nPlayer<\/th>\nClub<\/th>\nVotes<\/th>\nOdds<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>\nN.Daicos<\/td>\nColl<\/td>\n13<\/td>\n$4.50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nL.Neale<\/td>\nBL<\/td>\n12.75<\/td>\n$19<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nJ.Dawson<\/td>\nAdel<\/td>\n12.25<\/td>\n$6.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
=4<\/td>\nM.Gawn<\/td>\nMelb<\/td>\n12<\/td>\n$41<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
=4<\/td>\nB.Smith<\/td>\nGeel<\/td>\n12<\/td>\n$5.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
=6<\/td>\nN.Anderson<\/td>\nGC<\/td>\n11.75<\/td>\n$26<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
=6<\/td>\nC. Serong<\/td>\nFre<\/td>\n11.75<\/td>\n$21<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
=8<\/td>\nZ.Merrett<\/td>\nEss<\/td>\n11.25<\/td>\n$15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Best Bet<\/h2>\n

Lachie Neale @ $19<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

Nick Daicos was my best bet after Round 10 and moved into outright leader following 38 disposals in Collingwood\u2019s win over North Melbourne. But it\u2019s hard to ignore Lachie Neale\u2019s price and his upcoming opponent.<\/p>\n

Neale sits just 0.25 votes behind Daicos on our weighted averages system after another 30+ disposal effort in Brisbane\u2019s win over Hawthorn. He now faces an undermanned Essendon at the Gabba.<\/p>\n

Neale averages 35.3 disposals and 2.3 Brownlow votes across his last seven games against the Bombers. Could another three votes be coming?<\/p>\n

\n

Lay<\/h2>\n

Zach Merrett @ $15<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

Merrett will likely feature in the votes again for Essendon, but he\u2019s starting to play wider, with less contested ball, and has even spent time as a half forward.<\/p>\n

More importantly, Essendon\u2019s next eight weeks are tough. They\u2019d be lucky to grab two wins, and their injury crisis won\u2019t help.<\/p>\n

The Essendon skipper might still poll in losses, but those are more likely to be minor votes.<\/p>\n

\n

Value Bet<\/h2>\n

Noah Anderson @ $26<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

Still flying under the radar behind teammate Matt Rowell, Anderson\u2019s season has been enormous.<\/p>\n

The Gold Coast skipper is averaging a career-high 30.1 disposals per game, with contested ball back up to 12.5, close to the numbers that got him 22 Brownlow votes in 2023.<\/p>\n

With the Suns a chance to win 15 or 16 games this year, Anderson could easily push toward 25 votes in what looks like a relatively low-count season.<\/p>\n

\n

The Voting System<\/b><\/h2>\n

Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach<\/b><\/p>\n

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player\u2019s impact on the game.<\/span><\/p>\n

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We\u2019ve got less than two votes separating the top-eight of our Brownlow leaderboard after Round 11. Pos Player Club Votes Odds 1 N.Daicos Coll 13 $4.50 2 L.Neale BL 12.75 $19 3 J.Dawson Adel 12.25 $6.00 =4 M.Gawn Melb 12 $41 =4 B.Smith Geel 12 $5.00 =6 N.Anderson GC 11.75 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":19411,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1238],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19018","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-afl-brownlow-predictor"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19018","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19018"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19018\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19179,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19018\/revisions\/19179"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19411"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19018"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19018"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19018"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}