The race for a spot in the AFL Grand Final is the focus this week. It starts with the Swans hosting the Power at the SCG on Friday night footy. Meanwhile, the Lions will look to continue their stunning finals run against the rested Cats.<\/p>\n
The Swans enjoyed a week off after a huge comeback against the Giants at the SCG in week 1 of the finals. They’re back at the SCG this week, looking to advanced into the Grand Final and make up for the 2022 shocker. But, they’ll need to overturn a poor record against the Power and a 112 point loss in the last clash will be on their minds. Isaac Heeney proved instrumental in the qualifying final against Greater Western Sydney, where he spent 90% of his time in the midfield, gathering 30 disposals and seven clearances. His impact in the midfield could be decisive once again.<\/p>\n
Slow starts have been a challenge for the Swans, who rank 15th in points differential during the opening quarters. However, they excel in the second and third quarters, leading the league in points differential for these periods. Managing to keep their composure early could help them build a winning lead. The Swans are currently 16th in forward-half stoppages but stand second in the AFL for points scored from this area, averaging 19 points per game. With an average of 38 points from total clearances, maintaining this efficiency will be crucial.<\/p>\n
Sydney\u2019s success as the No. 1 scoring team this season, with an average of 98 points per game, is largely due to their ability to convert turnovers into scores. They average 56 points from turnovers and will need to exploit this against a Power team known for its intense pressure. The Power excel at converting rebound 50s into inside 50s, ranking in the top four. To counter this, the Swans must continue their strong defensive performance, where they currently top the league in preventing opposition forward entries from rebound 50s.<\/p>\n
The Power come off a thrilling win over the Hawks at the Adelaide Oval last week and they’re now just one win away from the big dance. They have a great record against Sydney, winning the last 8 meetings. It’s also hard to forget the last meeting back in Round 21 when the Power thrashed the listless Swans 148-36. Jordon Sweet’s standout performance against Hawthorn\u2019s Lloyd Meek highlights the Power\u2019s strength in ruck contests. Port Adelaide has been consistently strong in points from clearances and stoppage metrics, including hitouts to advantage. Ensuring dominance over Brodie Grundy will be a key focus. Since round 16, Port Adelaide ranks 22nd for points conceded but managed to limit the league\u2019s top-scoring team to just 72 points last week.<\/p>\n
While pressure up the ground is essential, the continued strong performances from key defenders like Lachie Jones, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Miles Bergman, Logan Evans, and Aliir Aliir will be crucial. Pressure has been key to Port Adelaide’s success and is crucial for their performance in the preliminary final. They delivered their fifth-best pressure rating of the season in the semi-final against Hawthorn, especially in a dominant fourth quarter. This high pressure not only created scoring chances but also shielded their young defense. The Swans are adept at handling pressure, so the Power will need to sustain their intensity. In their last encounter, Port Adelaide outmuscled their opponents in contested possessions by 27, contributing to a commanding 112-point win.<\/p>\n
With both midfields packed with talent, the Power will rely on stars like Connor Rozee, Zak Butters, and Jason Horne-Francis to win the contested ball and gain the upper hand. Also, Port Adelaide ranks third in converting rebound 50s into inside 50s, though some key players crucial to this are unavailable. Jase Burgoyne, who shifted to half-back, played a pivotal role against Hawthorn. A balanced approach combining their aggressive corridor movement with a more measured strategy might be necessary.<\/p>\n
This should be an interesting final. The Power have an excellent record against Sydney and the Swans are 0-4 ATS in finals at home. So, I like the Power to cover and potentially get another win over the Swans.<\/p>\n