{"id":11489,"date":"2017-07-28T05:30:38","date_gmt":"2017-07-28T05:30:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net\/more\/2017-afl-round-19-stats-betting-preview\/"},"modified":"2023-06-28T08:07:28","modified_gmt":"2023-06-28T08:07:28","slug":"2017-afl-round-19-stats-betting-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/afl\/2017-afl-round-19-stats-betting-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"2017 AFL Round 19 Stats & Betting Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hawthorn v Sydney<\/strong><\/a>
\n28 July, MCG<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hawthorn had a solid win against Fremantle, while Sydney were too good for St Kilda. These two teams have recaptured the form we are used to, and this match looks a beauty. Hawthorn\u2019s blend of youth and experience is matched by Sydney\u2019s. Sydney has more midfield power, but Hawthorn\u2019s kicking game is hard to stop. Gunston has moved to halfback and utilising his foot skills. Mitchell\u2019s numbers are truly amazing. Sydney know his capabilities and they might lock him down. Someone has to. Franklin and Roughead are at either ends. Franklin is on track for another Coleman Medal, while Roughead is playing his best football for the year. If Sinclair can play like he did last week for the Swans, it adds a new dimension to their side. This should be a fierce contest between two sides that respect each other. It\u2019s hard to go past the Swans, as they are beating everyone at the moment.<\/p>\n

Stadium Record<\/strong>
\nHawthorn has lost 3 of their last 4 at the MCG. Their only win during that time was against Collingwood. Sydney is 2-1 at the MCG this year. They beat Melbourne and Richmond, but lost to Carlton.<\/p>\n

Head to Head Record<\/strong>
\nSince the 2014 Grand Final, the away team has been victorious between these two every time. The ledger is 3-2, Hawthorn\u2019s way.<\/p>\n

Best Bet<\/strong>
\nSydney win 1-39 $2.10<\/a><\/p>\n

North Melbourne v Melbourne<\/strong><\/a>
\n29 July, Blundstone Arena<\/strong><\/p>\n

North Melbourne took it up to Essendon last week but weren\u2019t able to stop goals, while Melbourne was superb against Port Adelaide. I\u2019ve kept saying all year that North are in contests and playing well without winning at times, but the facts are they have lost seven in a row and are second last on the ladder. Melbourne was ruthless and swarmed Port Adelaide. Viney\u2019s inclusion was massive and his grunt and intensity lifted his teammates. He will be pivotal this week. If Melbourne brings the same heat as last week they will finally beat North Melbourne. On the other hand, North will need to match that intensity and make the most of their opportunities to have a chance. There is one player who deserves a mention and that is Frost. His work down back allows McDonald to play forward and his dash from defence has also gone to another level. He might get Brown, who kicked 6 last week.<\/p>\n

Stadium Record<\/strong>
\nNorth has played in Hobart twice this year. They thumped Adelaide, but lost to GWS by 7 goals. Melbourne played North last year at Blundstone. They lost by 5 points.<\/p>\n

Head to Head Record<\/strong>
\nNorth has won the last 16, that\u2019s right, 16, against Melbourne, including a 14-point victory earlier this year.<\/p>\n

Best Bet<\/strong>
\nMelbourne win 1-39 $2.10<\/a><\/p>\n

GWS v Fremantle<\/strong><\/a>
\n29 July, Spotless Stadium<\/strong><\/p>\n

Has injuries finally caught up with GWS or are there more problems? Since round 11, they have only beaten Brisbane. Fremantle was comprehensively beaten by Hawthorn and lost star play-maker, Walters, in the process. The Giants form line was skewed due to a number of close wins against the Bulldogs, Collingwood, Richmond, West Coast and Essendon from rounds 6-11. They aren\u2019t getting their game of running in waves out of defence and now Greene has been suspended again. However, Cameron and Coniglio are important inclusions. Fremantle is a confidence team. If they go for their kicks in the corridor and hit targets, they are hard to combat. However, if they turn the ball over, they can go into their shells and lose potency. The Giants must win, but Fremantle have shown they can be dangerous when they have nothing to lose.<\/p>\n

Stadium Record<\/strong>
\nGWS has won 4 of their 6 home games this year. The other results were a loss and a draw. Fremantle has only played at Spotless once. It was last year and they lost by 92 points.<\/p>\n

Head to Head Record<\/strong>
\nThe Giants won both encounters against the Dockers last year by a combined total of 110 points.<\/p>\n

Best Bet<\/strong>
\nGWS half-time margin -18.5 $1.85<\/a><\/p>\n

Port Adelaide v St Kilda<\/strong><\/a>
\n29 July, Adelaide Oval<\/strong><\/p>\n

Port was disappointing last week against Melbourne, while St Kilda was outclassed by the Swans in Sydney. Port Adelaide\u2019s first quarter would have been heavily reviewed this week. Their intensity was below par and they never really recovered. St Kilda was no match for the Swans, and would have lost by more had Sydney kicked straight. Port Adelaide has a very good record against clubs outside the top eight this year, which is not great news for St Kilda, who has dropped to eleventh. Games are generally won in the middle and Port has the superior midfield with the likes of Wines, Gray, Boak and Powell-Pepper. Throw in a vocal home crowd and St Kilda\u2019s questionable interstate record, and it should be a victory for the Power.<\/p>\n

Stadium Record<\/strong>
\nPort is 5-3 at home this year. Their three losses were all under 3 goals. St Kilda has never tasted success at the Adelaide Oval. Their average losing margin there is over 10 goals.<\/p>\n

Head to Head Record<\/strong>
\nPort Adelaide has won the last five against St Kilda. Four of those matches were in Adelaide.<\/p>\n

Best Bet<\/strong>
\nPort at the line -36.5 $1.90<\/a><\/p>\n

Gold Coast v Richmond<\/strong><\/a>
\n29 July, Metricon Stadium<\/strong><\/p>\n

The undermanned Suns lost to the Bulldogs, while Richmond gave the Giants a head start and went straight past them. \u2018Undermanned\u2019 and \u2018Suns\u2019 seem to go hand in hand. Not sure why they have so many injuries. Their biggest injury is Ablett. They are a different side when he plays and he is back. Richmond was great in the wet. They restricted GWS to six goals for the match and three of them were in the first quarter. It is now round 19 and Richmond has only played two poor games this year. There aren\u2019t many teams who can match that. Vlastuin\u2019s return has filled the hole left by the suspended Houli, who is back this week. Richmond looks to have Gold Coast covered, even though Gold Coast has some big ins and Richmond some big outs. Co-captain, May, returns while Presita and Riewoldt are out.<\/p>\n

Stadium Record<\/strong>
\nGold Coast is 4-4 at home this year. Their last home effort was a 15-point loss to Collingwood. Since the Suns inception, Richmond has only played at Metricon once. They lost by 18 points.<\/p>\n

Head to Head Record<\/strong>
\nRichmond has won 3 of the last 4 against the Suns, including a 17-point victory last year.<\/p>\n

Best Bet<\/strong>
\nRichmond win 1-39 $2.15<\/a><\/p>\n

Carlton v Geelong<\/strong><\/a>
\n29 July, Etihad Stadium<\/strong><\/p>\n

Carlton went down to Brisbane by 30 points, while Geelong was beaten by Adelaide. Carlton was smashed in the first half. They fought and reduced the margin to 11 points in the last quarter, but ultimately lost by five goals. Geelong was beaten all over the park against the Crows. Adelaide employed a different tactic of precise use instead of playing on and trying to get the ball over the top, and it worked. Carlton has targeted Joel Selwood the last few times and expect plenty of niggle again. Gibbs was heavily tagged last week and Rockliff was sensational against him. This will be a contested game and the midfield battle will be pivotal. Geelong has lost Menzel, Blicavs and Menzel, while Carlton regain Marchbank. Geelong should win, but Carlton has shown plenty of spirit all year.<\/p>\n

Stadium Record<\/strong>
\nCarlton\u2019s last outing at Etihad was a thrilling 1-point victory over GWS. That win ended a four match losing streak there. Geelong has won their last four at Etihad and is 3-0 there this year.<\/p>\n

Head to Head Record<\/strong>
\nCarlton upset Geelong by 19 points last year. That win ended a seven game losing streak against the Cats.<\/p>\n

Best Bet<\/strong>
\nCarlton at the line +28.5 $1.90<\/a><\/p>\n

Western Bulldogs v Essendon<\/strong><\/a>
\n30 July, Etihad Stadium<\/strong><\/p>\n

Both teams won as expected last week and this shapes as a mouth-watering clash. It is the proverbial eight-point game. Both teams are 9-8 and it is unlikely both will play finals. Their playing styles are very different. Essendon moves the ball with speed and the Bulldogs move the ball from congestion. Picken had a day out last week, kicking six goals, but I\u2019m not expecting that to happen again. Hooker also kicked a bag and with Morris\u2019 injury, he looms again. Essendon\u2019s forward line is dangerous. Daniher, Fantasia and McDonald-Tipungwuti can all kick multiple goals. The Dogs will be after an even contribution from the likes of McLean, Biggs, Daniel and Williams, to starve Essendon\u2019s forwards. The final consideration is the form line. The Bombers are in good form, while the Dogs ran away with victory against an undermanned Gold Coast. I like Essendon in this one.<\/p>\n

Stadium Record<\/strong>
\nThe Dogs have enjoyed Etihad in recent times, but have lost 2 of their last 3 there. Essendon is now 4-2 at Etihad this year, after beating North Melbourne.<\/p>\n

Head to Head Record<\/strong>
\nThe Bulldogs have won the last two against Essendon by 40 and 87 points, however those results were impacted by the drugs saga. Before that, Essendon won six in a row.<\/p>\n

Best Bet<\/strong>
\nEssendon win $1.78<\/a><\/p>\n

Collingwood v Adelaide<\/strong><\/a>
\n30 July, MCG<\/strong><\/p>\n

Collingwood had a fantastic win over West Coast, while Adelaide cemented first position by beating Geelong. Collingwood was down two players and four goals behind, but kicked the last five goals of the game to win at Etihad. Adelaide won by 21 points, but the margin flattered the Cats. Sloane was back to his best and the Crouch brothers were good again. Brad Crouch will miss this week and it\u2019s an important out, as Collingwood\u2019s midfield is good. If Adelaide match the Pies in the middle their dangerous forwards will be hard to stop, even without Betts. Collingwood\u2019s forward line has been a concern all year, but de Goey\u2019s inclusion has helped. Adelaide has some classy small defenders and should be able to handle Collingwood\u2019s mobile forward line. I expect Adelaide to get the job done in their last home and away game at the MCG this year.<\/p>\n

Stadium Record<\/strong>
\nCollingwood has lost their last four at the MCG. Three of those losses were by four or more goals. Adelaide has won their last four at the MCG and has beaten Carlton and Hawthorn there this year.<\/p>\n

Head to Head Record<\/strong>
\nAdelaide has won the last four against Collingwood, including a 28-point victory last year.<\/p>\n

Best Bet<\/strong>
\nAdelaide at the line -18.5 $1.90<\/a><\/p>\n

West Coast v Brisbane<\/strong><\/a>
\n30 July, Domain Stadium<\/strong><\/p>\n

West Coast had another disappointing loss on the road last week, while Brisbane secured their fourth win for the season, beating Carlton. The Eagles gave up a four-goal lead, against a bottom four side, who only had two fit players on the bench. They were smashed in the contested ball in the last quarter. Brisbane blew Carlton away and then withstood a fight back. Zorko was outstanding, particularly in the first half, but has been suspended for this match. Brisbane is building nicely for the future. Their spine is good and their midfield is developing. They won\u2019t win this week because West Coast doesn\u2019t lose to bottom sides at home. In fact, the Eagles will probably have a convincingly victory and play attractive football.<\/p>\n

Stadium Record<\/strong>
\nWest Coast is 6-3 at home this year. Brisbane has lost their last seven at Domain, which includes a 64-point loss to West Coast there last year.<\/p>\n

Head to Head Record<\/strong>
\nWest Coast has won the last six between these two, by an average of 50 points.<\/p>\n

Best Bet<\/strong>
\nWest Coast win 40+ $1.65<\/a><\/p>\n

Words:<\/strong> Rhys Thurston @rhyst03<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hawthorn v Sydney 28 July, MCG Hawthorn had a solid win against Fremantle, while Sydney were too good for St Kilda. These two teams have recaptured the form we are used to, and this match looks a beauty. Hawthorn\u2019s blend of youth and experience is matched by Sydney\u2019s. Sydney has […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":19408,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1220],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11489","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-afl"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11489","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11489"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11489\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15579,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11489\/revisions\/15579"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19408"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11489"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11489"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11489"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}