It all comes down to this. The 2025 State of Origin decider heads to Stadium Australia in Sydney, with the series locked at 1-1. NSW are favourites at $1.40 to win on home soil, while QLD are $3 outsiders, looking to spoil the party and claim another famous series victory.

New South Wales Blues: Game 3 Preview

NSW coach Laurie Daley has named an unchanged starting side for the State of Origin decider on July 9 at Accor Stadium, sticking with the 17 that narrowly went down to Queensland in Game Two.

The Blues took out Game One with an 18-6 win in Brisbane but couldn’t complete the series in Perth, falling 26-24 after a spirited second-half comeback. Trailing 26-6 at halftime, the Blues piled on 18 unanswered points, with Brian To’o bagging a hat-trick and both Stephen Crichton and Angus Crichton also finding the line.

Goalkicking was again an issue, just as it was in Game One. With Nathan Cleary nursing a groin injury, Zac Lomax took over the duties in Perth and landed just two of five conversion attempts.

Despite injury clouds, key playmakers Cleary (groin) and Jarome Luai (infection) have both been named and are expected to take the field. Winger Brian To’o, who has been managing a hamstring issue in recent weeks, also suffered a minor knee concern in Thursday night’s match against the Bulldogs. He played through the discomfort with strapping and iced the knee post-game. With nine days to recover, the Blues remain confident he’ll be fit for Game Three.

Daley has also named Bulldogs winger Jacob Kiraz as 18th man, Panthers forward Lindsay Smith in the No.19 jersey, and Knights centre Bradman Best in the No.20 spot, providing cover across multiple positions.

Queensland Maroons: Game 3 Preview

Queensland bounced back in classic fashion after a poor Game One showing, turning the tide with a gritty 26-24 win in wet conditions in Perth — their first-ever Origin win in Western Australia. The Maroons exploded out of the gates in Game Two, piling on 26 first-half points before going scoreless in the second half. Despite the drop in intensity, their early dominance proved enough to square the series.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow continued his strong Origin form with two tries, while new skipper Cameron Munster rose to the occasion, scoring a try in the 30th minute and earning Man of the Match honours in his first game as captain. Val Holmes was faultless with the boot, slotting all four conversions — a crucial difference in the narrow two-point win.

Billy Slater has named a mix of experience and youth for the decider. Veteran prop Josh Papalii returns from Origin retirement to play his 24th game for Queensland, replacing Moeaki Fotuaika in the starting pack. Debutant Gehamat Shibasaki earns his first Maroons jersey following standout form for the Broncos and slots into the centres, with Hamiso moving to fullback to cover the injured Kalyn Ponga.

Kurt Capewell retains his starting back-row spot after a strong performance in Game Two, while Pat Carrigan and Jeremiah Nanai will once again come off the bench to bring energy and aggression, mirroring the strategy that worked early in Game Two.

Reece Walsh, J’maine Hopgood and Josh Kerr are part of an extended squad for the first time this series, offering depth and flexibility ahead of what’s expected to be a brutal decider in Sydney.

Stadium Record

In their last 10 games at Stadium Australia, both the Blues and Maroons have won 5 games each. QLD won the last clash in Game 1 last year.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 State of Origin meetings, the series is tied 5-5. NSW won 3 of the last 4, including last year’s decider.

Best Bet

Both teams have strike power, but with the pressure of a decider, I’m leaning towards a tighter contest. The Under also has a great record in Game 3, going 5-0 since 2019.

Under 43.5 pts = $1.85

Same Game Multi

We know the Queenslanders love an underdog tag and that should work nicely into their favour. QLD are 5-1 as an Origin underdog and the underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 Origin games. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is back at fullback and will be dangerous. He comes off 4 tries at club level against Souths and scored a double in Game 2.

Maroons +7.5 / Under 43.5 pts / Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Anytime Tryscorer = $7.50

Man Of The Match

• Nathan Cleary (NSW): If NSW dominate, Cleary will control tempo and likely be in everything. But his groin injury is a concern, especially if he can’t do the goal kicking again.
• Payne Haas (NSW): A powerhouse in the middle, he can set the tone early with metres and defence. Got MOM in Game 1 and if NSW win, I think he’ll be right up there in the votes.
• Cameron Munster (QLD): The Maroons’ x-factor, Munster can steal the show if he gets space and confidence. The new Maroons skipper got the MOM in Game 2 and if QLD win again, he’ll probably get it again.
• Dylan Edwards (NSW): A high work rate and safe under the high ball; could be a surprise winner with a big game. He has also got MOM in Origin before.
• Isaah Yeo (NSW): A consistent link man and defensive leader, he’ll be key in keeping structure. Probably needs a try to get the MOM but he’ll stand out if NSW win.
• Harry Grant (QLD): If QLD win, it’s likely off the back of Grant’s energy and creativity from dummy-half. But it hasn’t been the best Origin series from Grant.

Best Bet

Cameron Munster (QLD) = $9.00

Anytime Tryscorer – Value Bets

• Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (QLD): Electric speed and strong Origin scoring record make him a genuine threat at $2.50.
• Stephen Crichton (NSW): Always around the ball and strong in set plays — great value for a centre.
• Gehamat Shibasaki (QLD): The debutant may be targeted, but that also gives him scoring opportunities on the edge.
• Nathan Cleary (NSW): Loves taking on the line near the try-line – value pick at big odds.
• Josh Papalii (QLD): Veteran forward who’s scored in Origin before – could power over near the line.
• Kurt Capewell (QLD): Aerial threat and strong runner on an edge – sneaky try chance. Scored in Game 2 as well.
• Cameron Munster (QLD): Loves the big stage and always has a chance with his step and fend. Found the line in Game 2.
• Angus Crichton (NSW): Powerful runner close to the line – scored in Game 2.

Best Bets

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (QLD) & Stephen Crichton (NSW)

Game 2 of State of Origin is this Wednesday night as the Maroons look to bounce back from a poor effort in Game 1 on their home turf. But the Blues are looking strong and eager to close out the series away from home in Perth. Here’s a betting preview of Game 2.

Queensland Maroons: Game 2 Preview

The Maroons come into Game 2 in unfamiliar territory, trailing the series 0-1 after a flat performance in the Origin opener at Suncorp Stadium. The 18-6 loss to the Blues wasn’t just disappointing for the scoreboard, but also raised deeper concerns about cohesion, attack structure, and selection gambles that didn’t quite pay off.

At their fortress in Brisbane, Queensland were expected to come out firing. But from the opening whistle, they looked disjointed and tentative. The Blues dominated the ruck, which blunted Queensland’s go-forward and exposed the Maroons’ reliance on individual brilliance rather than structured sets.

One of the biggest issues was their forward pack – they got smashed. NSW produced 49 tackle breaks (49 missed tackles for QLD), over 100 more post contact metres and easily won the run metres (1753 to 1425). As a result, Queensland struggled to create quality scoring chances. Their only try came from a moment of individual spark rather than any real sustained pressure. Daly Cherry-Evans and Cameron Munster couldn’t get into rhythm, and the Blues consistently won the kicking battle.

Coach Billy Slater’s faith in youth and debutants like Robert Toia and Trent Loiero showed mixed results. Toia was solid under pressure and Loiero battled hard but was part of a forward pack that ultimately got outmuscled.

For Game 2, Slater has rung the changes and he’s gone straight to the top. Dropping captain Daly Cherry-Evans in favour of Tom Dearden at halfback signals the end for DCE at Origin level. Dearden brings energy, speed, and a running game that could trouble the Blues’ middle defenders. The captaincy shifts to Cameron Munster, a proven Origin performer who thrives under pressure and will be desperate to inspire a response. Kurt Mann is a versatile addition who offers cover across multiple positions, another area where Queensland looked short last time out.

Trent Loiero earns a promotion to the starting side, while Pat Carrigan drops to the bench — likely to manage his minutes after battling injury concerns. Kurt Capewell’s inclusion gives the side more defensive steel on the edge, replacing the out-of-form Jeremiah Nanai.

The key for Game 2 will be unlocking their backs. Ponga, Tabuai-Fidow and Valentine Holmes need early ball in space, and Dearden must take control and ease the pressure on Munster to do everything. The pack will also need to lift, particularly through the middle, where Carrigan, Lindsay Collins and Reuben Cotter can set the tone.

Queensland don’t have the best history in Perth. They’ve lost both previous Origin matches played at Optus Stadium — in 2019 (38-6) and 2022 (44-12) — both blowout wins for the Blues. It’s not just the scoreboard either — the Maroons have looked flat in Perth both times, struggling with travel, conditions, and the hostile neutral crowd.

That said, the pressure of a must-win game might help refocus the squad. Munster will remember the pain of that 2022 loss, and there’s enough leadership in this team to rally the younger players. The Maroons have often bounced back strongly after criticism and adversity, and this situation is tailor-made for one of those trademark Queensland responses.

Game 2 shapes up as a defining moment in the Maroons’ campaign — and perhaps the end of an era with DCE being dropped. Slater’s loyalty to youth is admirable, but Game 1 showed the importance of Origin experience and big-game temperament.

If Queensland are to win in Perth and send the series to a decider, they’ll need much more from their spine. Munster must dominate, Dearden has to rise to the occasion, and the forwards have to win the arm wrestle. It’s a big ask in a tough venue, but if any team can defy the odds, it’s Queensland with their backs to the wall.

New South Wales Blues: Game 2 Preview

The Blues head to Perth brimming with confidence after a dominant 18-6 victory in Game 1 at Suncorp Stadium — a ground where wins are typically hard to come by. It wasn’t just the result that impressed, but the way Laurie Daley’s side executed their game plan with discipline, defensive steel, and an edge in physicality. With a 1-0 series lead, NSW now have a golden opportunity to wrap up the 2025 Origin series in straight sets.

Game 1 at Suncorp was a tactical masterclass from New South Wales. From the outset, they brought relentless line speed in defence, shutting down Queensland’s halves and denying any attacking fluency. Their pack, led by Isaah Yeo, Payne Haas and Liam Martin, won the battle in the middle, giving their spine a platform to control the contest.

Mitchell Moses, starting at five-eighth, justified his selection with a controlled kicking game and calm decision-making under pressure. His combination with Nathan Cleary clicked straight away, as the pair orchestrated repeat sets and kept Queensland constantly turning around. Dylan Edwards was superb at the back — safe under the high ball and always present in support.

But perhaps most pleasing for Laurie Daley was the team’s defence. NSW held the Maroons to just one try — and didn’t concede a point in the final 30 minutes. They scrambled, communicated, and forced errors from frustrated Queensland playmakers. Expect the Blues to stick with a similar formula: kick long, dominate territory, and suffocate Queensland with relentless line speed and disciplined defence.

Some changes to the team for Game 2 include Jarome Luai replacing the injured Mitchell Moses. Luai has a great combo with Nathan Cleary and he also played in last year’s series, so the Blues won’t be losing much with Luai into the 6 jersey. Mitch Barnett did his ACL in a cruel blow so the Storm’s Stefano Utoikamanu will take his place.

The Blues have a perfect record at Optus Stadium, having won both previous Origins in Perth in emphatic fashion — 38-6 in 2019 and 44-12 in 2022. It’s clear the travel west doesn’t bother them, and they’ve relished the dry, fast conditions.

Daley has often talked about “owning the big moments” and in Perth, NSW have done just that. Their attack has clicked in both games there, and the wide surface has allowed their backs to find space and time — something the current NSW lineup is built for.

Everything is set up for NSW to claim their second straight Origin series — and do it in style. They’ve got momentum, form, health, and a dominant Game 1 win under their belt. Most importantly, they appear unified and confident, something that has often been missing in past campaigns.

The key to victory in Game 2 will be composure. If the Blues don’t get drawn into a Queensland scrap and instead stick to their structures, their forward depth and backline firepower should carry them through. Cleary will again be vital — especially if he can turn field position into points early and put scoreboard pressure on the Maroons.

Stadium Record

QLD are 0-2 at this venue as NSW have won both Origin matches here.

Head to Head Record

Over the last 10 games, the Maroons and Blues have been evenly matched, each securing five victories.

Best Bet

NSW are heavy favourites to seal up the series but we know QLD won’t be backing down without a fight. So I prefer to bet on the points and I like the Over trend. It’s saluted in 7 of the last 10 Game 2 matchups as both sides are usually better in attack after Game 1. The Over is also 2-0 in Origin games in Perth, which should be a key factor.

Over 40.5 pts = $1.95

Same Game Multi

Lomax has been loving the Origin arena, especially when it comes to tries. He’s scored in 3 of his 4 Origin games and that includes 2 doubles. For QLD, I think Coates is the best chance to score if they get their kicking game right. He scored in Game 1 of the series and has scored in 3 of his last 5 Origin games. Plus the aerial matchup between To’o and Coates is obviously in the QLDers favour.

Over 40.5 / Zac Lomax Anytime Tryscorer / Xavier Coates Anytime Tryscorer = $5.60

Man Of The Match

Nathan Cleary (NSW): The short priced favourite and it’s hard to back against him if the Blues get up. He had 20 runs in Game 1 and broke 10 tackles. While he didn’t score a try, if he keeps running the ball, it’s a good chance to happen in Game 2.

Dylan Edwards (NSW): He had a strong Game 1. He finished with 1 try, 1 try assist, 1 line break and 5 tackle breaks. His run metres total was only 119 so he’ll need to be pushing the 200 mark and will likely need another try to get MOTM.

Payne Haas (NSW): In Game 1, the numbers speak for themselves. He had 61 post contact metres, 18 hit-ups, 3 tackle breaks, 3 offloads and made 30 tackles. He’s a massive chance of MOTM if NSW win.

Jarome Luai (NSW): Luai will be looking to cement his place in the 6 jersey and he was impressive last year. But missing Game 1 and only a few training sessions with the Blues may hurt him.

Isaah Yeo (NSW): Yeo was on a mission in Game 1. He finished with 64 post contact metres and broke 5 tackles. Not out of the question if NSW win.

Cameron Munster (NSW): The new Maroons skipper will be out to prove himself in Game 2 after an average effort in Game 1, highlighed by 10 missed tackles. Will need to find the line and lead QLD to victory to be a chance of MOTM.

Tom Dearden (NSW): The future of the Maroons at halfback and he’s probably the best bet to get MOTM for the underdog QLDers. He can score a try or two and will be damaging if the QLD forward pack step up.

Kalyn Ponga (NSW): Had a quiet Game 1 but did his job in the run metres with 21 runs and 163 metres. If he’s get on the end of some try assists and a try, he’ll offer nice value if QLD win.

Best Bet

Nathan Cleary = $5.50

Best Value

Tom Dearden = $16.00

Anytime Tryscorer – Value Bets

Dylan Edwards (NSW): He scored in Game 1 and now has 2 tries in 3 Origin games. Great value.

Nathan Cleary (NSW): Cleary has scored a double in the Origin arena and I like his runnning numbers in Game 1, so he could get there on Wednesday.

Kalyn Ponga (QLD): Ponga last scored an Origin try a few years ago and should get more attacking chances with DCE out.

Liam Martin (NSW): Martin scored a try in the last Origin over in Perth when NSW won 38-18.

Cameron Munster (QLD): Munster has scored an Origin try in 2 of his last 5 games and he’ll be extra motivated to cross for the first time as QLD skipper.

Kurt Capewell (QLD): He scored a try in QLD’s last Origin win and will be in the starting lineup, so he’s a great good value bet.

Best Bets

Dylan Edwards for NSW / Cameron Munster for QLD

The fiercest rivalry in rugby league returns as State of Origin Game 1 kicks off the 2025 series at Suncorp Stadium, the spiritual home of Queensland rugby league. After a breakthrough series win in 2024, New South Wales are aiming to back it up, while Queensland, under Billy Slater, look to restore dominance in front of a massive Brisbane crowd. Let’s get into the betting predictions, value picks and player props for Game 1.

Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales (Game 1)

Coach Billy Slater has named a Queensland Maroons squad that blends experience with youth, which is kind of due to a few untimely injuries to several key players. As a result, the team will feature multiple debutants in Game 1. One of the most talked-about selections is Roosters rookie Robert Toia, who has been rewarded for his strong NRL form with a surprise debut in the centres. This move pushes veteran Valentine Holmes—typically a centre in recent Origin series—back to the wing, where he has previously starred in Maroons colours.

Adding further freshness to the squad, Slater has also called up Beau Fermor and Trent Loiero, both of whom are expected to make their Origin debuts from the interchange bench. Their inclusion sees Slater’s commitment to developing Queensland’s next generation while maintaining loyalty,  such as DCE at halfback.

There were concerns surrounding Patrick Carrigan’s availability due to a recent ankle injury scare, but he has been named and is expected to lead from the front in the forward pack. Slater, speaking to the media, expressed strong faith in the group’s ability to rise to the occasion, noting that while the lineup includes fresh faces, it is still “dripping with Origin class.” The coach praised the adaptability of his squad and suggested that the Queensland spirit – so often the difference in close contests – will once again be crucial in this series opener.

NSW Coach Laurie Daley has taken a measured and conservative approach to selection for State of Origin Game 1, choosing to build on continuity rather than overhaul. Of the 17-man squad, 16 players return from last year’s campaign, which shows his trust in the existing core group and their understanding of Origin intensity. The only fresh face is a lone debutant, highlighting Daley’s belief that stability and experience will be key in taking down the Maroons on their home turf.

One of the most significant selection calls was naming Mitchell Moses at five-eighth ahead of the more unpredictable Jarome Luai. Moses brings a composed kicking game, strong organisation and was man of the match in Game 2 last year with Nathan Cleary on the sidelines. The return of Latrell Mitchell to the centres is another major talking point. Latrell’s power running and big-game temperament could be crucial in both attack and defence, especially matched against Queensland’s newer outside backs.

At fullback, Dylan Edwards has retained the No.1 jersey, edging out long-time custodian James Tedesco. Edwards’ consistency, positional play, and elite fitness levels give the Blues a workhorse at the back, though the call to leave out the Origin veteran has not gone unnoticed by fans and media alike.

However, the squad is not without its question marks. Injuries to key strike centre Bradman Best and forward Jacob Saifiti have thinned the Blues’ options, while the omission of red-hot Roosters prop Terrell May, who has been among the most in-form middle forwards in the NRL this season, has raised eyebrows. Critics argue that the squad may lack impact off the bench and flexibility in key positions, should injuries strike during the match. Daley, however, remains firm in his belief that this group has the chemistry and maturity to execute his game plan and finally reclaim Origin dominance.

Stadium Record

QLD have 7 wins in the last 10 games at Suncorp Stadium. NSW are just 3-7 in their last 10 but they secured their first series win since 2021 and their first decider victory at Suncorp in 2024.

Head to Head Record

Over the last 10 games, the Maroons are 6-4. The Blues won the last series 2-1. Since 2018, the Blues have won 4 series and the Maroons have 3 victories.

Best Bet

The Blues come into Game 1 as favourites but we know the Queenslanders love to be the underdogs, especially on their home turf at Suncorp. So I think there is merit in betting on QLD to cover the short line. But the points should be a bit more safer. In Origin, games are usually focused on defence and big hits, which is great for the Under. The trends agree – the Under is 10-4 in the last 14 Origin games.

Under 38.5 pts = $1.90

Same Game Multi

With the Maroons strong record at Suncorp Stadium — winning 7 of their last 10 Origin games there — QLD at +2.5 is a smart play. They won’t be happy about last year’s loss at Suncorp and it wouldn’t surprise me if they won Game 1. Queensland’s defensive grit at home has held the Blues to 20 points or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games at Suncorp. With several new faces in NSW’s attack and Origin typically being low-scoring, they should fall under the 20.5 mark. The “Hammer” has scored 4 tries in 3 Origin games, including two blistering tries in last year’s series. With his electric speed and lethal finishing, he’s always a threat — especially against reshuffled backlines.

QLD Maroons +2.5 / NSW Under 20.5 pts / Anytime Tryscorer – Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow = $4.50

Man Of The Match

Nathan Cleary (NSW): He’s back in the Origin arena after missing last year with a shoulder injury. His club form this year hasn’t been as good as the past, but if NSW win Game 1, he’ll be right up there in the man of the match votes.

Mitchell Moses (NSW): As the starting five-eighth, Moses’ playmaking abilities and kicking game could be pivotal in NSW’s attacking strategy. He was impressive in last year’s series as NSW halfback, but a change to 5/8 might not be his best position.

Daly Cherry-Evans (QLD): This could be DCE’s last Origin series before the Queenslanders look to their youth, so I think he’ll know that and will be out there to prove himself. He last won man of the match in Game 1 last year, a game that QLD won 18-14. So he’s probably the safest bet if the Maroons win.

Cameron Munster (QLD): Returning after missing last year’s series, Munster’s experience and flair make him a strong candidate. He’s been in great form at club level with the Storm and his injury issues of the past aren’t bothering him at this stage. He last won MOM in 2022, Game 1, so he can win it.

Kalyn Ponga (QLD): Ponga gets his fullback jersey back after Walsh’s injury and he’s no stranger to getting man of the match. He last won it in 2023 and 2022, both Game 3’s. So he’s a proven performer at Origin level, especially in the big games.

Dylan Edwards (NSW): The Panthers fullback didn’t look out of place last year and gets rewarded with a Game 1 jersey over Teddy. He delivered in NSW’s Game 3 victory, picking up man of the match honours in just his second Origin game.

Latrell Mitchell (NSW): Back in the centres, Mitchell’s power and agility can break defensive lines and create scoring opportunities. If NSW get the win and he scores a try, he offers huge value.

Best Bet

Cameron Munster (QLD) = $8.50

Best Value

Latrell Mitchell (NSW) = $21

Anytime Tryscorer

Zac Lomax (NSW): Lomax scored 3 tries in last year’s series, including a double at the MCG in Game 2. He’ll get plenty of chances on the wing.

Xavier Coates (QLD): A proven Origin performer, Coates is paying $2.20 to score anytime. He’s scored 10 tries in 10 NRL games this season and if QLD get their kicking game right, I don’t see the Blues having much chance of stopping him in the air.

Brian To’o (NSW): To’o’s agility and strength make him a consistent tryscoring threat. He scored a double in Game 2 last year.

Valentine Holmes (QLD): Holmes has a history of scoring in Origin matches, making him a reliable pick.

Latrell Mitchell (NSW): Mitchell’s ability to break tackles and create opportunities positions him as a key tryscoring candidate.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (QLD): His speed and agility make him a constant danger to defences. He scored a hat-trick in Game 1 last year and picked up 4 tries in the series. Should be a great bet to cross the line.

Best Bets

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (QLD) = $2.50 & Latrell Mitchell (NSW) = $2.40