Super Bowl 60 will be a rematch of the 2015 epic finish when the Patriots beat the Seahawks 28-24. Can the Seahawks get the ultimate revenge as the favourites this time? Here are my thoughts on the Super Bowl!
Seattle Seahawks (14-3) at New England Patriots (14-3)
The Seahawks head into the Super Bowl on the back of an impressive 9 game winning streak and back to back playoff wins over NFC West rivals. As the #1 seed, they had the bye in the wildcard playoffs and smashed the 49ers 41-6 in the divisional playoffs. Then last week, they outlasted the LA Rams 31-27, in one of the best NFC conference games.
In the win over the Rams, Sam Darnold finished with 3 passing TD's and 346 passing yards. While also shaking off any concerns about his injury. Jaxon Smith-Njigba continued his impressive season in the Seahawks offence with 10 catches, 153 yards and 1 TD. The Pats defence will have their eye on him throughout this matchup, mainly via Christian Gonzalez. Kenneth Walker was solid in the running with 19 carries, 62 yards and a TD. He'll face a tough challenge against the Patriots front 7.
On defence, the Seahawks didn't have much answer for Matty Stafford as they conceded 3 passing TD's and 27 pts. This is an area they'll need to get better at when they face Drake Maye and Josh McDaniels. But during the regular season, they were the top team in the NFL for points allowed and the 3rd best team for rushing yards allowed, which should help them contain the Patriots throughout the game.
The Patriots are back in the Super Bowl after an interesting run during the postseason. They've played in terrible conditions in all 3 games, highlighted by a snow game last week. In Denver, they leaned on their defence to get the job done in the 10-7 result over the #1 seeded Broncos. Drake Maye struggled in the conditions with just 86 passing yards and taking 5 sacks. But he should enjoy better throwing conditions in San Fran.
The Pats ran the ball strongly with 141 total rushing yards and Rhamondre Stevenson took the bulk of the load in the snow with 25 carries. He'll be a key factor if Maye struggles to move the chains in the air. They also got Mack Hollins back from injury and he finished with the most receiving yards for New England.
The key factor for the Pats will be their defence, which has been outstanding in the playoffs. They've conceded 3 pts against the Chargers, 16 against Houston and 7 against Denver. Last week, they came away with an interception and 3 sacks, which followed forcing 5 turnovers against the Texans. So getting pressure on Darnold early in the pocket will be a key gameplan for Mike Vrabel.
Leg #1 - New England Patriots +7.5
In the last 5 Super Bowls, the underdog is a perfect 5-0 against the spread. The Pats are the underdogs in this Super Bowl and should enjoy flying under the radar, compared to their time with Tom Brady. In their last 7 games as underdogs, they've covered in 5 of 7. They also come into this game having covered in 5 of their last 6 games.
Leg #2 - Under 44.5
Both teams are strong defensively and that says this Super Bowl should be a low scoring grind. In the playoffs, the Pats are averaging just 8.66 points against and have a strong pass rush along with a lockdown corner on the edge. Seattle's defence wasn't super impressive last week but I think they'll get back to the unit that allowed just 6 pts and 0 TD's against the 49ers. Overall, I think this should be a similar result when the Pats were last in the Super Bowl (13-3 against the Rams in 2019).
Leg #3 - Drake Maye 40+ Rushing Yards
When the pocket breaks down, Maye is a strong runner and hard to stop. In the playoffs, he's totalled 141 yards on the ground and has gone over 60 yards in 2 of 3 games. So 40 yards looks very achievable.
Same Game Multi
New England Patriots +7.5 / Under 44.5 / Drake Maye 40+ Rushing Yards = $5.25
Value Leg - Drake Maye Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Maye scored on the ground last week against the Broncos and will be using his running game to his advantage when the Seahawks bring the heat.
Super Bowl Touchdown Scorer Bets
Value Bet - Stevon Diggs Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Diggs comes off 5 catches and 6 targets last week in the snow. Previously, he caught a TD against the Texans in the redzone so Maye should be targeting him if they get there. The Seahawks also gave up 9 catches and 165 yards to a top WR last week. As well as 3 passing TD's.
Value Bet - Cooper Kupp Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Cooper caught a TD last week and has been a strong target for Darnold in the playoffs. He's had 5 and 6 targets in both games. The Pats will be focused on Smith-Njigba, so Kupp should enjoy plenty of chances to punch one in.
Value Bet - Kayshon Boutte Anytime Touchdown Scorer
His one hand catch against the Texans will be hard to beat as the play of the postseason. If Maye is throwing deep, Boutte will be one of his favourite targets. He had 6 targets last week and that's a good sign.
Value Bet - Jake Bobo Anytime Touchdown Scorer
He's a longshot but after catching a TD last week, anything can happen in these kind of games.
Super Bowl Player Prop Value Bets
Value Bet - Rashid Shaheed 30+ Receiving Yards
He's the deep threat for Sam Darnold and that showed up last week when he caught a 51 yard pass to open the game. So he could easily get this total in one big play.
Value Bet - Mack Hollins 40+ Receiving Yards
Mack is back from injury and caught both targets last week for 51 yards. Should be better conditions for Maye to throw the ball to Hollins in this matchup too.
Value Bet - Jaxon Smith-Njigba 9+ Receptions
One of the toughest receivers to cover in the NFL and comes off 10 catches last week. He has 9+ catches in 2 of his last 4 games.
Value Bet - Rhamondre Stevenson 70+ Rushing Yards
He's coming off 71 rushing yards last game and also had 70 against the Texans previously. In both of those games, he's carried the ball over 15 times so the volume is there to get over this mark again. Seattle also gave up 5.2 rushing yards per carry last week against the Rams.
