Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons

The Pistons keep rolling with a 19-5 record and a clean bill of health, going 11-deep with more capable players waiting at the end of the bench for their chance.

As for the Hawks, they’re the complete opposite. Without Trae and Porzingis, their depth is really being tested and although their starting group is still strong, there’s not much else they can turn to.

That being said, when the Hawks are on they’re very capable of causing an upset led by Jalen Johnson.

LEG 1 – Jalen Duren Under 18.5 Points

Surprisingly, Atlanta is the most difficult team in the NBA for centres to score against, restricting bigs to 22% below average — likely due to their length across multiple positions — so this doesn’t bode well for Jalen Duren.

The Pistons centre stormed into Most Improved calculations early in the season, but he has slowed down in a big way. He’s averaging just 15.4 points over the last seven games, covering 18.5 points only once. When Detroit is at full strength, Duren’s season average drops from 18.8 points to 16.4 points, with just a 20% coverage rate.

LEG 2 – Jalen Johnson Over 23.5 Points

No Trae and Porzingis means Jalen Johnson goes crazy.

Johnson has played eight games without the pair, and his numbers explode in every category — especially scoring.

He averages 29.8 points per game from those eight games and has hit 25+ points in all eight. Should see another monster outing from the athletic forward.

LEG 3 – Tobias Harris 10+ Points

Not overly flashy, but Tobias Harris is reliably someone who will score double digits each game.

Harris has hit this in 86% of his games this season, and on the two occasions he missed, he finished on 9 points.

Even with a potential minutes hit due to Detroit’s depth, Harris should still find his 10.

SAME GAME MULTI

Duren Under 18.5 Points / Johnson Over 23.5 Points / Harris 10+ Points = $4.00

VALUE BET

Nickeil Alexander-Walker 5+ 3PM @ $4.30

When Trae and Porzingis are missing, Alexander-Walker has also benefited alongside Johnson, averaging 24.1 points per game.

NAW is averaging 3.3 triples from those nine games, but his recent form is even more impressive — hitting 5+ in three of his last five.

This includes knocking down 6 last time Atlanta faced the Pistons, finishing with 26 points, so there’s no reason why he can’t catch fire again.

Miami Dolphins (6-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)

After 4 straight wins, the Dolphins are suddenly right back in the mix for an AFC wildcard spot and a win over the Steelers will make that challenge a lot easier. They thrashed the Jets 34-10 last week and their defence has been on fire. In this winning streak, they’ve allowed under 18 pts in all 4 games. The only issue could be a ribs issue for starting RB De’Von Achane but Jaylen Wright showed last week he can handle the load with 107 yards on 24 carries.

The Steelers picked up a massive win last week, beating the Ravens 27-22. So, they just need to keep winning and they’ll take out the AFC North division. Aaron Rodgers comes off 284 passing yards and a TD pass. He hooked up with DK Metcalf for 7 catches and 148 yards. But they would like more from the running game as they totalled just 34 yards in 17 carries. They have a great matchup against Miami’s run D as they allow 125 rush yards per game, so that will be a key matchup.

Leg #1 – Under 42.5 pts

Both teams are playing well defensively so it’s expected to be a low scoring grind on Tuesday morning. The Dolphins haven’t allowed over 20 pts in a month and the Under has saluted in 5 of their last 6 games. Pittsburgh haven’t been a huge scoring team this year and the Under shows a positive trend. They’re 4-1 against the Under at home.

Leg #2 – Miami Dolphins +7.5

The Dolphins will likely use their running game to control this matchup and keep the margin close throughout the 4 quarters. Pittsburgh haven’t been overly great at stopping the run either. Miami also comes into this one having covered the line in 4 of their last 6 games and they’re 4-2 ATS at this venue too.

Leg #3 – Tua Tagovailoa Under 199.5 Passing Yards

Tua has fallen under 200 passing yards in 4 straight games and I don’t see that changing against the Steelers. They prefer to run the ball at the moment as Tua is only averaging around 20 passes per game.

Same Game Multi

Under 42.5 pts / Miami Dolphins +7.5 / Tua Tagovailoa Under 199.5 Passing Yards = $0.00

Value Leg – D.K. Metcalf Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Metcalf comes off a season high in targets last week (12) and that’s a great sign. He also finished with 148 yards, also a season high. It’s fair to say he’s due for a TD catch and the volume is definitely there to get the job done.

Under 42.5 pts / Miami Dolphins +7.5 / Tua Tagovailoa Under 199.5 Passing Yards / D.K. Metcalf Anytime Touchdown Scorer = $11.00

Minnesota Vikings (5-8) at Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)

The Vikings showed some life last week in a 31-0 shutout of the Commanders and that stopped a 4 game losing streak. Their chances of making the playoffs are still alive, but they need a miracle. The positive last week was the performance by J.J. McCarthy, finishing with 3 touchdown passes and no turnovers. So let’s see if they can keep it going against the Cowboys because a loss will mean it’s season over.

A nice little 3 game winning streak ended last week when the Cowboys couldn’t handle the Lions firepower in a 44-30 loss. It puts them back in the NFC wildcard race and similar to the Vikings, they will likely need a lot to go there way if they want to make the playoffs. The issue has been their defence, which is allowed 29.7 points per game (31st per game). But if they can rattle McCarthy and force turnovers, that will be the major key to victory.

Leg #1 – Over 45.5 pts

The Cowboys give up points like few else and the Vikings come in hot, so look for a high scoring clash. The Over is also 5-2 in the Vikings last 7 road games and they come off scoring 31 pts. Dallas have an impressive 8-2 record against the Over and 10-5 when they play a team from the NFC.

Leg #2 – Dak Prescott 250+ Passing Yards

Dak has been a passing beast over the last 3 weeks, going over 320 pass yards in all 3. He passed for 376 yards last week and previously had 320 and 354 against the Chiefs/Eagles. So 250+ looks like a safe bet.

Leg #3 – George Pickens Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Pickens looked checked out last week but I’m expecting a bounce back. He’s tied for 5th in the NFL with 8 touchdowns this season and still has been targeted 9 or times in 6 straight games.

Same Game Multi

Over 45.5 pts / Dak Prescott 250+ Passing Yards / George Pickens Anytime Touchdown Scorer = $3.80

Value Leg – Ryan Flournoy Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Flournoy had a massive game last week, catching 9 balls for 115 yards and a TD. He’s now caught a TD in 3 of his last 5 games, so last week wasn’t a fluke. Great value play to get into the endzone.

Over 45.5 pts / Dak Prescott 250+ Passing Yards / George Pickens Anytime Touchdown Scorer / Ryan Flournoy Anytime Touchdown Scorer = $11.00

Atlanta Falcons (4-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)

The Falcons are out of playoff contention but will be looking to become the upset hunter as the season nears the end, starting with the Bucs, a divisional foe, on Friday morning. They come into this matchup with not a lot of form, losing 4 of their last 5 and got smashed by the Seahawks last week, 37-9. Winning on the road has been tough too, they’ve lost 5 of their last 6 and will need Kirk Cousins to have a blinder for a chance at an upset.

Tampa are 7-6 but have been very average lately, winning just 1 of their last 5. They come off a close loss against the Saints last week (24-20). QB Baker Mayfield has been playing through a shoulder injury, making it tough for the offence to score. But they’ve got Evans back this week and Godwin as well. With a lead in the NFC South over the Panthers, this is a must-win game for their chances of winning the division.

Leg #1 – Buccaneers -2.5

Tampa have a lot to play for in this matchup compared to the Falcons and I think they get the job done by a field goal or more. Baker should enjoy having the likes of Evans and Godwin together in the passing game. Meanwhile, the Bucs defence should be able to pressure Cousins into mistakes, as has been the case since he took over the starting QB role.

Leg #2 – Over 43.5 pts

The trends are pointing towards a high scoring affair on a short week. The Bucs and Falcons have gone 14-5 against the Over in their last 19 meetings. It’s also 5-2 when the Bucs are the home team. Atlanta are 5-1 against the Over in their last 6 games and both sides give up around 25 points per game.

Leg #3 – Bijan Robinson 70+ Rushing Yards

Another 70+ rushing day looks to be on cards for Robinson, the heartbeat of this Falcons offence. He comes off 86 yards in a massive loss last week and in 2 of his last 4 games, he’s gone over 100 rushing yards. Tampa also gave up 70 yards to a RB last week and 3 rushing TD’s.

Same Game Multi

Buccaneers -2.5 / Over 43.5 pts / Bijan Robinson 70+ Rushing Yards = $5.40

Value Leg – Bucky Irving Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Bucky is looking to make it 4 straight games with a TD. Coming into this matchup, he’s a caught a TD against the Saints, ran one in against Arizona and previously had 5 catches/102 yards/1 TD against the Eagles.

Buccaneers -2.5 / Over 43.5 pts / Bijan Robinson 70+ Rushing Yards / Bucky Irving Anytime Touchdown Scorer = $8.00

San Antonio Spurs @ LA Lakers

The Lakers have crept into second place in the West with a 17-6 record and will host the Spurs in this NBA Cup Quarter Final.

San Antonio has also been rock solid this season at 16-7, which is impressive considering they have barely played with their full roster due to Fox missing the start of the season, followed by extended absences for Wemby and Castle.

Will the experienced Lakers defend home court to advance to the Semi Finals in Vegas, or will it be this young Spurs outfit?

LEG 1 – Luka Doncic 30+ Points

Luka has scored 30+ points in his last eight games, and this is a great matchup for him against the Spurs.

San Antonio is the easiest team in the NBA over the last month for point guards to score against, conceding at 21% above league average.

If the Lakers win this, they head to Vegas, so Luka won’t be rested in this one.

LEG 2 – Dylan Harper 10+ Points

Absolute jet. Dylan Harper is averaging 13.5 points per game this season coming off the bench for the Spurs, and despite the return of Castle last game he posted a career-high 22 points.

Harper has hit 10+ points in 85% of his games this season, and since returning from injury he is scoring at 22.9 points per 36 minutes.

Should see 20+ minutes again off the back of a breakout performance.

LEG 3 – Deandre Ayton 8+ Rebounds

Rebounding numbers remain strong for Deandre Ayton, who is averaging 8.8 per game this season.

Even though LeBron is back for the Lakers, Ayton has actually posted better rebounding numbers when playing alongside both LeBron and Luka this season, with his average jumping to 9.2 over a five-game sample and hitting 8+ in four of those games.

SAME GAME MULTI

Doncic 30+ Points / Harper 10+ Points / Ayton 8+ Rebounds = $3.20

VALUE BET

Luka Doncic 40+ @ $3.80

As mentioned earlier, the Spurs are the easiest team for point guards to score against over the last month.

Last time Luka faced the Spurs he scored 35 points, and with a bit more on the line in an NBA Cup Quarter Final we should see him do serious damage here, especially in the first quarter.

Doncic averages 14.8 first quarter points across his last eight games, which generally sets the tone for both the Lakers and his individual performance.

Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)

After back to back losses, the Eagles are looking to bounce back in primetime this week. Last week, they lost a key game against the Bears 24-15 and their offence just continues to struggle. They rank just 19th in the NFL for points socred and have struggled to get both their running and passing game going. The Eagles D also struggled to stop the run last week, giving up a massive total of 281 rushing yards.

Coming off a shocker against the Jags (35-6 loss), the Chargers got back on track last week with a comfortable 31-14 win over the Raiders. Justin Herbert tossed 2 passing touchdowns but it will be interesting to see how he goes after hurting his non-throwing hand. However, they ran the ball with ease, totalling 192 rushing yards and Vidal finished with 126 yards / 1 TD. That’s a great sign coming into this matchup with the Eagles struggling run defence.

Leg #1 – Under 42.5

The Eagles are struggling to score points and Herbert has a hand injury, so those factors should see this be a low scoring one. Philly are 4-1 against the Under in their last 5 games as well.

Leg #2 – Chargers +3.5

With the Eagles struggling on both sides of the ball, the Chargers should be able to make this a close game and potentially get the upset at home. They love playing Philly at home, winning 5 of their last 6 and LA are hot at the moment after 4 wins in their last 5. The Eagles are just 1-5 against the Chargers on the road and they’re definitely not in the best form right now.

Leg #3 – Jalen Hurts 175+ Passing Yards

Despite the Eagles struggles, Hurts has been able to get their passing game going in the last 2 weeks. Against the Bears last week, he had 230 pass yards and previously had 289 against Dallas. This season, he has gone over 175 passing yards in 8 of 12 games.

Same Game Multi

Under 42.5 / Chargers +3.5 / Jalen Hurts 175+ Passing Yards = $4.90

Value Leg – Kimani Vidal Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Vidal gets a great matchup against an Eagles D that was torched by the Bears running game last week. I can also see the Chargers leaning on the run with Herbert’s hand injury. In his last game, he had 25 carries for 126 yards and punched in a TD. In his last 3 games with 20+ carries, he’s scored a TD in all 3.

Under 42.5 / Chargers +3.5 / Jalen Hurts 175+ Passing Yards / Kimani Vidal Anytime Touchdown Scorer = $16.00

Houston Texans (7-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)

Houston are on fire at the moment after 4 straight wins. They took down the Colts 20-16 last week in a huge result for their chances of winning the AFC South. They’ve got QB C.J. Stroud back from a lengthy concussion and he should be better for the run when he faces this Chiefs D on Monday. The key will also be the Texans defence, which is simply on fire. They are the #1 team in the NFL for points allowed (16.5) and can defend both the pass & run. That will be a massive factor against the Chiefs offence.

After just 1 win in their last 4 games, the Chiefs are in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time with Mahomes as QB. With a 6-6 record, they likely can’t win the AFC West so they’ll need to hope for a wildcard spot and a win over Houston will make that challenge a lot easier.

Leg #1 – Texans +7.5

The Texans will face the Chiefs at an ideal time and keeping the margin under a touchdown should be achievable. They come into this one with a 4 game winning streak and their defence is one of the best units in the NFL. Which should help them contain Mahomes, Rice, Hunt and Kelce. Houston also have a 6-1 record against the AFC and have covered in 6 of their last 9 games. Meanwhile, KC have only covered in 1 of their last 5.

Leg #2 – Under 42.5

This matchup figures to be on the low scoring side. The Chiefs have gone Under in 6 of their last 7 and their offence has been struggling lately. They now face a Texans D that allowed just 16 pts to the Colts last week and the Under has saluted in 5 of their last 7 road games.

Leg #3 – Nico Collins 70+ Receiving Yards

Nico has been a beast lately, going over 70+ receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 games. With Stroud back at QB, they connected for 5 catches and 98 yards in the win over the Colts. He’s also had 10+ targets in 5 of his last 6 games, so that should convert to over 70+ yards here.

Same Game Multi

Texans +7.5 / Under 42.5 / Nico Collins 70+ Receiving Yards = $5.20

Value Leg – Dalton Schultz 6+ Receptions

Schultz offers a reliable option in the receptions market. He’s gone over 6 catches in 4 of his last 5 games.

Texans +7.5 / Under 42.5 / Nico Collins 70+ Receiving Yards / Dalton Schultz 6+ Receptions = $16.00

San Antonio Spurs @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Victor who? The Spurs keep balling out without the Frenchman, winning seven of their last nine games.

They face a Cleveland team that has struggled to reach the lofty heights of last season due to an injury-interrupted offseason, which has carried into more injuries to start this season. They sit eighth in the East.

Hosting San Antonio, can they respond after losing four of their last five?

LEG 1 – Jaylon Tyson Over 13.5 Points

Has produced some big games this season, generally when he’s in the starting lineup and when both Garland and Allen are missing for the Cavs.

Tyson averages 14.5 points per game as a starter this season, but when he plays 26+ minutes that average jumps to 16.8. In those nine games he has covered 13.5 points in eight of them.

In the four games where both Garland and Allen have missed, Tyson averages 19.5 points per game, including a 27-point outing against the Pacers the last time this happened. Will cover.

LEG 2 – Keldon Johnson 10+ Points

Averaging 13 points per game this season off the bench, Keldon Johnson has benefited from the injuries to Wemby and Castle.

Across that eight-game stretch, Johnson is averaging 16 points and has hit double figures in all eight games.

LEG 3 – Lonzo Ball 4+ Rebounds

Has played only three games without both Garland and Allen, starting two of them, and has rebounded well in their absence.

Lonzo averages 4.5 rebounds this season from just under 24 minutes per game, but those minutes jump closer to 29 per game when Garland and Allen are out. As a result, his rebound average rises to 6, hitting 4+ in all three games.

Will once again thrive with the additional opportunity.

SAME GAME MULTI

Tyson Over 13.5 Points / Johnson 10+ Points / Ball 4+ Rebounds = $4.00

VALUE BET

Jaylon Tyson 4+ 3PM @ $5.50

Can genuinely stroke it from deep. Tyson is shooting the three-ball at 48% this season, and when Garland and Allen are out that percentage goes through the roof, climbing to a crazy 56%.

Averaging 2.2 triples per game this season, in the four-game sample without Garland and Allen that average jumps to 3.8, and he has made 4+ in three of those games. Should get plenty of looks as a genuine offensive option in this lineup.

Miami Heat @ Dallas Mavericks

The Miami Heat are one of the surprise packets of the season, sitting third in the East with a 14-7 record, and they’ve just reintroduced Tyler Herro into their system. Bam Adebayo also missed a couple of weeks through injury.

Dallas, on the other hand, has been a complete disaster this season, from AD’s early injury to more issues for Gafford and Lively. Then there’s the whole Nico Harrison debate. But there’s some hope. AD has returned and was dominant in their win over the Nuggets, while Cooper Flagg has exploded in the last couple of games. Can they win three in a row when they host Miami?

LEG 1 – Tyler Herro 20+ Points

Herro has returned to the lineup and is immediately playing 30 minutes a night. He has been red-hot and shown no signs of rust.

He averages 24.8 points per game, is shooting 54% from the field and from deep, and has hit 20+ points in all four games since returning.

LEG 2 – Bam Adebayo 15+ Points

No issues for Bam Adebayo playing alongside Tyler Herro, who continues to lead the Heat through their surprising start to the season.

Bam averages 19.4 points per game, and in the four games he’s played alongside Herro he has hit 15+ on all four occasions.

He has hit 15+ in every game this season excluding the one he exited early due to injury against Detroit. He should clear this again with ease.

LEG 3 – Anthony Davis Over 2.5 Assists

The sheer usage through AD should see him produce a few assists in this matchup with the Heat.

He averages just under 3 assists per game from his seven appearances this season, and from his last six he has hit 3+ in five of them. The only miss came against the Pacers, where he played only six minutes due to injury.

I also expect the Heat to play some zone, which could see AD operate as a distributor from the elbow.

SAME GAME MULTI

Herro 20+ Points / Adebayo 15+ Points / Davis Over 2.5 Assists = $3.60

VALUE BET

Kel’El Ware Double Double @ $2.95

With the Mavericks likely to start AD and PJ Washington, this could be a matchup where the Heat start both Bam and Ware, possibly at the expense of Davion Mitchell or if Norman Powell misses through injury.

Ware as a starter is an automatic double double. He averages 12.9 points and 11.4 rebounds in starts this season, and has recorded double doubles in his last seven starts.

Coach Spoelstra has mixed up the starting lineup a fair bit this season, but with Dallas’ front-court size this appears to be a good opportunity to start Ware at centre.

Chicago Bulls @ Indiana Pacers

The Bulls started the season on fire but they’ve been really poor lately. In fact, in November Chicago has the seventh worst net rating in the NBA resulting in them plummeting down the Eastern Conference standings.

The Pacers are even worse though with a 3-16 record and a swag of injuries to key players. That being said, they enter this off the back of smashing the Wizards and on their home floor are a nice price as underdogs.

LEG 1 – Bennedict Mathurin Under 24.5 Points

I know Andrew Nembhard is questionable for this contest as Indiana enters off no rest, but it’s still a big line for Mathurin.

Mathurin started the season on fire for Indiana, but has slowed down recently with his average dropping to 22.6 points per game.

The wing has failed to score 25+ points in his last five games where he’s averaged 18.8 points over this stretch, so happy to back the unders here.

LEG 2 – Josh Giddey 8+ Rebounds

Averaging just under 10 rebounds per game this season, Josh Giddey overall numbers have eased off slightly since his hot start where he had the Bulls on top of the East, but his rebound numbers remain strong.

Giddey has hit 8+ rebounds in 12 of his last 15 games, and the Pacers are one of the easier teams for point guards to rebound against this season at 19% above average. Won’t be an issue here.

LEG 3 – Nikola Vucevic Under 17.5 Points

He has these games where he goes huge including what he did against the Wizards two starts back with 28 points, but Vucevic only averages 14.5 points over his last ten games which is a truer indication of his level.

During this stretch, Vucevic has only covered 17.5 points in three of those games, and although the Pacers aren’t great they’ve got enough defensive bigs on their roster that can do a job here.

SAME GAME MULTI

Mathurin Under 24.5 Points / Giddey 8+ Rebounds / Vucevic Under 17.5 Points = $4.33

VALUE BET

Josh Giddey Triple Double @ $3.70

He’s a genuine triple double threat every time he steps on the court these days.

Josh Giddey is averaging 20.8 points, 9.9 rebounds and 9.4 assists this season, and with how Indiana concedes rebounds to point guards he should comfortably hit 10+ rebounds here.

The Australian was one assist shy on Saturday against Charlotte in just 33 minutes, and three starts back recorded one against the Wizards. I like this price for a player that’s so close each time he steps on the floor.