Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)

After back to back losses, the Eagles are looking to bounce back in primetime this week. Last week, they lost a key game against the Bears 24-15 and their offence just continues to struggle. They rank just 19th in the NFL for points socred and have struggled to get both their running and passing game going. The Eagles D also struggled to stop the run last week, giving up a massive total of 281 rushing yards.

Coming off a shocker against the Jags (35-6 loss), the Chargers got back on track last week with a comfortable 31-14 win over the Raiders. Justin Herbert tossed 2 passing touchdowns but it will be interesting to see how he goes after hurting his non-throwing hand. However, they ran the ball with ease, totalling 192 rushing yards and Vidal finished with 126 yards / 1 TD. That’s a great sign coming into this matchup with the Eagles struggling run defence.

Leg #1 – Under 42.5

The Eagles are struggling to score points and Herbert has a hand injury, so those factors should see this be a low scoring one. Philly are 4-1 against the Under in their last 5 games as well.

Leg #2 – Chargers +3.5

With the Eagles struggling on both sides of the ball, the Chargers should be able to make this a close game and potentially get the upset at home. They love playing Philly at home, winning 5 of their last 6 and LA are hot at the moment after 4 wins in their last 5. The Eagles are just 1-5 against the Chargers on the road and they’re definitely not in the best form right now.

Leg #3 – Jalen Hurts 175+ Passing Yards

Despite the Eagles struggles, Hurts has been able to get their passing game going in the last 2 weeks. Against the Bears last week, he had 230 pass yards and previously had 289 against Dallas. This season, he has gone over 175 passing yards in 8 of 12 games.

Same Game Multi

Under 42.5 / Chargers +3.5 / Jalen Hurts 175+ Passing Yards = $4.90

Value Leg – Kimani Vidal Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Vidal gets a great matchup against an Eagles D that was torched by the Bears running game last week. I can also see the Chargers leaning on the run with Herbert’s hand injury. In his last game, he had 25 carries for 126 yards and punched in a TD. In his last 3 games with 20+ carries, he’s scored a TD in all 3.

Under 42.5 / Chargers +3.5 / Jalen Hurts 175+ Passing Yards / Kimani Vidal Anytime Touchdown Scorer = $16.00

Houston Texans (7-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)

Houston are on fire at the moment after 4 straight wins. They took down the Colts 20-16 last week in a huge result for their chances of winning the AFC South. They’ve got QB C.J. Stroud back from a lengthy concussion and he should be better for the run when he faces this Chiefs D on Monday. The key will also be the Texans defence, which is simply on fire. They are the #1 team in the NFL for points allowed (16.5) and can defend both the pass & run. That will be a massive factor against the Chiefs offence.

After just 1 win in their last 4 games, the Chiefs are in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time with Mahomes as QB. With a 6-6 record, they likely can’t win the AFC West so they’ll need to hope for a wildcard spot and a win over Houston will make that challenge a lot easier.

Leg #1 – Texans +7.5

The Texans will face the Chiefs at an ideal time and keeping the margin under a touchdown should be achievable. They come into this one with a 4 game winning streak and their defence is one of the best units in the NFL. Which should help them contain Mahomes, Rice, Hunt and Kelce. Houston also have a 6-1 record against the AFC and have covered in 6 of their last 9 games. Meanwhile, KC have only covered in 1 of their last 5.

Leg #2 – Under 42.5

This matchup figures to be on the low scoring side. The Chiefs have gone Under in 6 of their last 7 and their offence has been struggling lately. They now face a Texans D that allowed just 16 pts to the Colts last week and the Under has saluted in 5 of their last 7 road games.

Leg #3 – Nico Collins 70+ Receiving Yards

Nico has been a beast lately, going over 70+ receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 games. With Stroud back at QB, they connected for 5 catches and 98 yards in the win over the Colts. He’s also had 10+ targets in 5 of his last 6 games, so that should convert to over 70+ yards here.

Same Game Multi

Texans +7.5 / Under 42.5 / Nico Collins 70+ Receiving Yards = $5.20

Value Leg – Dalton Schultz 6+ Receptions

Schultz offers a reliable option in the receptions market. He’s gone over 6 catches in 4 of his last 5 games.

Texans +7.5 / Under 42.5 / Nico Collins 70+ Receiving Yards / Dalton Schultz 6+ Receptions = $16.00

San Antonio Spurs @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Victor who? The Spurs keep balling out without the Frenchman, winning seven of their last nine games.

They face a Cleveland team that has struggled to reach the lofty heights of last season due to an injury-interrupted offseason, which has carried into more injuries to start this season. They sit eighth in the East.

Hosting San Antonio, can they respond after losing four of their last five?

LEG 1 – Jaylon Tyson Over 13.5 Points

Has produced some big games this season, generally when he’s in the starting lineup and when both Garland and Allen are missing for the Cavs.

Tyson averages 14.5 points per game as a starter this season, but when he plays 26+ minutes that average jumps to 16.8. In those nine games he has covered 13.5 points in eight of them.

In the four games where both Garland and Allen have missed, Tyson averages 19.5 points per game, including a 27-point outing against the Pacers the last time this happened. Will cover.

LEG 2 – Keldon Johnson 10+ Points

Averaging 13 points per game this season off the bench, Keldon Johnson has benefited from the injuries to Wemby and Castle.

Across that eight-game stretch, Johnson is averaging 16 points and has hit double figures in all eight games.

LEG 3 – Lonzo Ball 4+ Rebounds

Has played only three games without both Garland and Allen, starting two of them, and has rebounded well in their absence.

Lonzo averages 4.5 rebounds this season from just under 24 minutes per game, but those minutes jump closer to 29 per game when Garland and Allen are out. As a result, his rebound average rises to 6, hitting 4+ in all three games.

Will once again thrive with the additional opportunity.

SAME GAME MULTI

Tyson Over 13.5 Points / Johnson 10+ Points / Ball 4+ Rebounds = $4.00

VALUE BET

Jaylon Tyson 4+ 3PM @ $5.50

Can genuinely stroke it from deep. Tyson is shooting the three-ball at 48% this season, and when Garland and Allen are out that percentage goes through the roof, climbing to a crazy 56%.

Averaging 2.2 triples per game this season, in the four-game sample without Garland and Allen that average jumps to 3.8, and he has made 4+ in three of those games. Should get plenty of looks as a genuine offensive option in this lineup.

Miami Heat @ Dallas Mavericks

The Miami Heat are one of the surprise packets of the season, sitting third in the East with a 14-7 record, and they’ve just reintroduced Tyler Herro into their system. Bam Adebayo also missed a couple of weeks through injury.

Dallas, on the other hand, has been a complete disaster this season, from AD’s early injury to more issues for Gafford and Lively. Then there’s the whole Nico Harrison debate. But there’s some hope. AD has returned and was dominant in their win over the Nuggets, while Cooper Flagg has exploded in the last couple of games. Can they win three in a row when they host Miami?

LEG 1 – Tyler Herro 20+ Points

Herro has returned to the lineup and is immediately playing 30 minutes a night. He has been red-hot and shown no signs of rust.

He averages 24.8 points per game, is shooting 54% from the field and from deep, and has hit 20+ points in all four games since returning.

LEG 2 – Bam Adebayo 15+ Points

No issues for Bam Adebayo playing alongside Tyler Herro, who continues to lead the Heat through their surprising start to the season.

Bam averages 19.4 points per game, and in the four games he’s played alongside Herro he has hit 15+ on all four occasions.

He has hit 15+ in every game this season excluding the one he exited early due to injury against Detroit. He should clear this again with ease.

LEG 3 – Anthony Davis Over 2.5 Assists

The sheer usage through AD should see him produce a few assists in this matchup with the Heat.

He averages just under 3 assists per game from his seven appearances this season, and from his last six he has hit 3+ in five of them. The only miss came against the Pacers, where he played only six minutes due to injury.

I also expect the Heat to play some zone, which could see AD operate as a distributor from the elbow.

SAME GAME MULTI

Herro 20+ Points / Adebayo 15+ Points / Davis Over 2.5 Assists = $3.60

VALUE BET

Kel’El Ware Double Double @ $2.95

With the Mavericks likely to start AD and PJ Washington, this could be a matchup where the Heat start both Bam and Ware, possibly at the expense of Davion Mitchell or if Norman Powell misses through injury.

Ware as a starter is an automatic double double. He averages 12.9 points and 11.4 rebounds in starts this season, and has recorded double doubles in his last seven starts.

Coach Spoelstra has mixed up the starting lineup a fair bit this season, but with Dallas’ front-court size this appears to be a good opportunity to start Ware at centre.

Chicago Bulls @ Indiana Pacers

The Bulls started the season on fire but they’ve been really poor lately. In fact, in November Chicago has the seventh worst net rating in the NBA resulting in them plummeting down the Eastern Conference standings.

The Pacers are even worse though with a 3-16 record and a swag of injuries to key players. That being said, they enter this off the back of smashing the Wizards and on their home floor are a nice price as underdogs.

LEG 1 – Bennedict Mathurin Under 24.5 Points

I know Andrew Nembhard is questionable for this contest as Indiana enters off no rest, but it’s still a big line for Mathurin.

Mathurin started the season on fire for Indiana, but has slowed down recently with his average dropping to 22.6 points per game.

The wing has failed to score 25+ points in his last five games where he’s averaged 18.8 points over this stretch, so happy to back the unders here.

LEG 2 – Josh Giddey 8+ Rebounds

Averaging just under 10 rebounds per game this season, Josh Giddey overall numbers have eased off slightly since his hot start where he had the Bulls on top of the East, but his rebound numbers remain strong.

Giddey has hit 8+ rebounds in 12 of his last 15 games, and the Pacers are one of the easier teams for point guards to rebound against this season at 19% above average. Won’t be an issue here.

LEG 3 – Nikola Vucevic Under 17.5 Points

He has these games where he goes huge including what he did against the Wizards two starts back with 28 points, but Vucevic only averages 14.5 points over his last ten games which is a truer indication of his level.

During this stretch, Vucevic has only covered 17.5 points in three of those games, and although the Pacers aren’t great they’ve got enough defensive bigs on their roster that can do a job here.

SAME GAME MULTI

Mathurin Under 24.5 Points / Giddey 8+ Rebounds / Vucevic Under 17.5 Points = $4.33

VALUE BET

Josh Giddey Triple Double @ $3.70

He’s a genuine triple double threat every time he steps on the court these days.

Josh Giddey is averaging 20.8 points, 9.9 rebounds and 9.4 assists this season, and with how Indiana concedes rebounds to point guards he should comfortably hit 10+ rebounds here.

The Australian was one assist shy on Saturday against Charlotte in just 33 minutes, and three starts back recorded one against the Wizards. I like this price for a player that’s so close each time he steps on the floor.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks

The Cavaliers head to Atlanta for their final group game of the NBA Cup and will need a strong performance to secure a wildcard spot in the Quarter Finals.

The Hawks are eliminated after their horrific performance against the Wizards a few days ago, and it will take a huge effort for them to bounce back against the quality of Cleveland.

Point difference is vital for the Cavs here — expect big minutes from their stars as they try to extend the final margin and boost their chances of advancing.

LEG 1 – Cavaliers -5.5

The Hawks were woeful in their last NBA Cup game against the Wizards, gifting Washington just their second win of the season.

As a result, Atlanta cannot qualify for the next phase of the NBA Cup, but the Cavaliers can. Although Cleveland cannot finish top of East Group A due to Toronto’s perfect record, they’ll be relying on the wildcard spot. The Cavs currently hold a +33 point difference and will look to build on that to maximise their chances of advancing.

LEG 2 – Jalen Johnson 8+ Rebounds

Johnson has been key to the Hawks’ start to the season in Trae Young’s absence.

He is averaging 9.5 rebounds per game, and his rebound numbers have jumped 8% without Trae, up to 10.2 boards per game.

Last time Johnson faced the Cavs, he grabbed 13 rebounds, and he has hit 8+ rebounds in eight of his last nine games.

LEG 3 – Jalen Johnson 6+ Assists

Even if the Hawks don’t win, Johnson should have a major all-round impact.

He is averaging 7.8 assists per game without Young this season and has recorded 6+ assists in his last nine games.

Atlanta is effectively running Johnson at point guard, so another big assist game looks likely.

SAME GAME MULTI

Cavaliers -5.5 / Johnson 8+ Rebounds / Johnson 6+ Assists = $3.75

VALUE BET

Donovan Mitchell 35+ Points @ $3.30

I’m expecting more minutes for Donovan Mitchell here, as the Cavs will need to win by as much as possible if Detroit beats Orlando, given the Magic’s huge point differential.

Mitchell doesn’t usually play massive minutes, but in the seven games where he has played 35+, he’s averaged 34.1 points, hitting 35+ in three of them.

You’d assume Garland’s return reduces Mitchell’s output, but in Garland’s five games this season, Mitchell has still averaged 33.4 points.

He dropped 37 on the Hawks last time — more than capable of doing it again.

New York Giants (2-10) at New England Patriots (10-2)

The Giants have had a rough season with a lot of close losses and injuries. Their last 3 games have been decided by 7 pts or less, so the 2-10 record probably doesn’t reflect where they’re at. They’ll also get starter Jaxson Dart back from concussion for this clash. The key against the Pats will be getting their defence back on track. They were tormented by the Lions last week and have given up 27.8 ppg.

The Patriots are the hottest team in football after 9 straight wins. They didn’t put away the Bengals last week in a 26-20 result, but a win is a win. Drake Maye continued his fine season with 294 passing yards and linked up with Hunter Henry when he needed him the most. At home, the Pats are 4-2 this season and will be looking to head into the bye with a 10 game winning streak.

Leg #1 – Giants +10.5

This could be a danger game for the Patriots. They were below their best against Cinci last week and picked up a few key injuries. The Giants also like playing New England, they have covered in 6 of the last 7 meetings. A margin under 11 pts should be achievable.

Leg #2 – TreVeyon Henderson 70+ Rushing Yards

The return of Rhamondre Stevenson didn’t change much for Henderson last week. He still finished with 18 carries and 66 rushing yards. He now faces the worst defence in the NFL for rushing yards allowed – 157 per game.

Leg #3 – Darius Slayton 3+ Receptions

With Dart at QB, Slayton has been one of his favourite targets and has caught 4 and 5 receptions in their last 2 games together.

Same Game Multi

Giants +10.5 / TreVeyon Henderson 70+ Rushing Yards / Darius Slayton 3+ Receptions = $6.50

Value Leg – Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Henry was massive last week and let’s hope it continues against a struggling Giants defence. He finished with a season high in yards (115) and his second-most catches (7).

Giants +10.5 / TreVeyon Henderson 70+ Rushing Yards / Darius Slayton 3+ Receptions / Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer = $17.00

Chicago Bears (8-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-3)

After 4 straight wins, the Bears are looking for another upset this weekend. They come off a huge 31-28 win over the Steelers and lead the NFC North division. One of the key reasons for their success has been their offence. They’re scoring 26 points per game and have the 2nd best rushing attack in the NFL.

The Eagles 4 game winning streak ended last week at the hands of the Cowboys 24-21 in Dallas. So, Philly will be fired up to bounce back and win at home against another NFC contender. Winning at home has been their strength as they’ve won 15 of their last 16 in Philadelphia. But they need to get their offence back after scoring just 21, 16 and 10 pts in their last 3 games.

Leg #1 – Bears +12.5

This should be a close game between two evenly matched teams in the NFC and I like the Bears to cover. They’ve been impressive on the road lately, winning 4 of their last 5. In their last 9 games, they’re 7-2 ATS as well. Philly haven’t been at their best lately, especially on offence so the Bears should be able to stick with them.

Leg #2 – Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Hurts is coming 3 rushing TDs in his last 2 games and the Bears haven’t been the best at defending the running game.

Leg #3 – Caleb Williams 200+ Passing Yards

Bears starting QB Caleb Williams comes off passing 239 yards last week and his season high total is 298 against Dallas. He has beaten 200+ passing yards in 4 of his last 5 games and Philly have allowed 225 passing yards per game this season.

Same Game Multi

Bears +12.5 / Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown Scorer / Caleb Williams 200+ Passing Yards = $5.00

Value Leg – DJ Moore Anytime Touchdown Scorer

DJ Moore found the endzone twice last week against the Steelers and finished with 5 catches / 64 yards. He’s also a dual-threat, having scored a rushing TD a few weeks ago.

Bears +12.5 / Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown Scorer / Caleb Williams 200+ Passing Yards / DJ Moore Anytime Touchdown Scorer = $12.00

Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) at Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1)

The Chiefs kept their playoff hopes alive with a huge 23-20 OT win over the Colts last week. Mahomes finished with 352 passing yards but no passing TDs. It was all about Kareem Hunt in the running game as he went over 100 rushing yards with a score. One of the Chiefs issues this year has been winning on the road as they’re just 1-4 in their last 5, so that will be a key factor when they travel to Dallas.

The Cowboys rallied from 21-0 down to beat the Eagles 24-21 in what was a crazy game. They’ve won 2 straight games, and a playoff spot is on the line when they take on the Chiefs. Their scoring ability is always there – they’re averaging 29.1 ppg this season. It’s just their defence that needs to stand up against Mahomes as they’ve been giving up 28.5 points per game (31st in the NFL).

Leg #1 – Cowboys +9.5

After beating the Eagles, this Cowboys team should be confident of stepping up against the Chiefs. Dallas will also get home-field advantage where they have covered the line in 5 of their last 7 home games. Their record against KC is great too, winning the last 5 on home turf. Kansas City are just 1-6 ATS on the road too.

Leg #2 – Patrick Mahomes 275+ Passing Yards

Mahomes comes off his highest passing yards total this season last week with 352 against the Colts. He has beaten 275+ yards in 4 of his last 5 games and Dallas are one of the worst passing defences in the league.

Leg #3 – Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Hunt is going for 5 straight games with a TD. Last week, he was massive with 30 carries and he found the endzone again. A nice matchup against the Cowboys leaky defence should make this a nice bet.

Same Game Multi

Cowboys +9.5 / Patrick Mahomes 275+ Passing Yards / Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown Scorer = $7.00

Value Leg – George Pickens Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Pickens is having a great season as a Cowboy, especially in the last 2 weeks. Against the Raiders and Eagles, he’s finished with an average of 145 receiving yards and caught a TD in both games too. In his last 4 games, he’s had 9+ targets so look for Dak to link up with him again on Friday.

Cowboys +9.5 / Patrick Mahomes 275+ Passing Yards / Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown Scorer / George Pickens Anytime Touchdown Scorer = $12.00

Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics

It was a shaky start to the season for Detroit at 2-2 including a shock loss to the Bulls, but since then they’ve strung 13 wins together, leading the Eastern Conference and being the form team in the NBA.

As for the Celtics, they’re just north of .500 with a 9-8 record, but some soft kills of late suggests that this game could get out of hand when Detroit enter TD Garden, now chasing a big points difference in their NBA Cup Group.

LEG 1 – Pistons

You could make a case they’re the form team in the NBA including the Thunder – the Pistons have won 13 games in a row!

This isn’t the same old Boston Celtics, and although they have won four of their last five games entering this contest those wins were against the Grizzlies (6-12), Nets (3-14) and Clippers (5-13) and although their recent performance against the Magic was a good win, the game prior they lost to Brooklyn.

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Neemias Queta is a big out for Boston and I think we’ll see Jalen Duren feast on the Celtics.

LEG 2 – Jalen Duren 15+ Points

Producing an incredible season, and his rise is a key reason behind Detroit’s hot start.

Jalen Duren averages 20.3 points per game this season, and has hit 15+ points in 80% of his games – the misses include an ejection against the Rockets and foul trouble against the Cavs.

But Duren has hit 15+ points in his last eight games, and with Luka Garza his likely opponent I think he’ll go big.

LEG 3 – Tobias Harris 10+ Points

Injury has limited Tobias Harris to eight games this season, but from Power Forward he’s averaging 13.9 points – a solid output.

Harris has hit 10+ points in seven of his eight games, and although minutes are floating around the mid-20s for now I think he’ll get enough opportunity to hit double figures.

SAME GAME MULTI

Pistons / Duren 15+ Points / Harris 10+ Points = $3.20

VALUE BET

Jalen Duren 30+ Points @ $9

I just can’t help but think that Jalen Duren is going to humiliate Luka Garza with Queta out.

We’ve seen Duren score 25+ on three occasions this season – all three occasions led to him scoring 30+, so why don’t we have a play at the $9?

The net rating numbers for Queta are actually insane – on floor Boston is +15.1, which would have them just behind OKC in the NBA. But when Queta is off the floor, they drop to -5.1 – the equivalent of dropping from an OKC level to a Dallas Mavericks level.

Their defensive rating shoots up to 125.5, which is the worst defensive rating in the league – so do we see Duren just go to town on Garza and Boucher?