LEG 1 – Carlos Alcaraz

I’m going to bank on the fact that Carlos Alcaraz doesn’t actually have a groin injury and was instead cramping in the semifinal against Zverev. I just think the Spaniard will be too good for Djokovic here.

The career record is very close, with Djokovic leading 5–4. Their service + return point percentages are almost identical: Djokovic at 100.1% and Alcaraz at 99.9%.

What Djokovic did against Sinner was outrageous, but the Serbian’s service + return point percentage was just 92.5% – the worst of any victorious player this tournament, even worse than his numbers against Musetti when he didn’t win a set.

Like he did against Sinner, can Djokovic back it up with another strategic masterstroke against Carlos? I’m not convinced he can do it again.

LEG 2 – Over 3.5 Sets

Although I think Alcaraz wins, I don’t see this being a straight-sets result. Djokovic’s record against the Spaniard is strong, particularly in big matches – last year’s Australian Open quarterfinal, the Paris Olympics gold medal match and the 2023 French Open semifinal.

Last year’s US Open was the only time Alcaraz really blew Djokovic off the court, and I don’t think that happens again given the question marks around the Spaniard’s fitness and Novak chasing Grand Slam title number 25.

LEG 3 – Under 23.5 Total Aces

Both Djokovic and Alcaraz are two of the best returners on tour, and as a result, when they’ve played historically, there hasn’t been a huge number of aces.

Last year’s US Open had a total of 11 aces, while 12 months ago there were 15 in Djokovic’s upset win. Even their two Wimbledon finals averaged just 12 total aces per match on the fast grass courts.

Multi = $4.20

LEG 1 – Elena Rybakina Over 9.5 Player Games

Rybakina is a great price in this matchup considering how well the Kazakh is playing and her hard court record against Sabalenka.

Across her last 20 matches, Rybakina is 19-1 — even more impressively, she’s 9-0 against top-ten opposition during this stretch.

Against Sabalenka, she’s won six of their last eight hard court meetings, including a straight sets victory in the WTA Finals final in November. Across those eight matches, Rybakina has covered 9.5 player games in seven of them.

LEG 2 – Aryna Sabalenka Under 5.5 Aces

Sabalenka didn’t serve a single ace against Svitolina and historically hasn’t posted big ace numbers against Rybakina on hard courts.

She has gone over 5.5 aces in just one of her last eight hard court matches against Rybakina. At this Australian Open, she has cleared this line only twice across six matches.

LEG 3 – First Set Under 10.5 Games

Despite the tightness of their career rivalry, with Sabalenka leading 8-6 overall, first-set tiebreakers between these two are rare.

Across their 14 career meetings, only three first sets have gone over 10.5 games.

Looking more broadly, only two of Rybakina’s last 20 matches have gone over 10.5 games in the opening set. The same applies to Sabalenka, with just two of her last 26 matches clearing this line.

Multi = $3.20

LEG 1 – Alcaraz vs Zverev Over 3.5 Sets

Taking nothing away from Alcaraz, but I think Alex De Minaur made the Spaniard look better than he actually was, with the Australian’s first-serve percentage dropping right off compared to his matches against Bublik and Tiafoe.

Zverev and Alcaraz’s career head-to-head sits at 6–6, although the German did bank a couple of wins in 2021 when Alcaraz was still outside the top 40. If you remove those early meetings, their hard-court record remains locked at 3–3, including Zverev’s upset win at the 2024 Australian Open.

Three of their four matches at majors have gone to four or more sets, and I think Zverev has flown under the radar this Australian Open. He can challenge at a price.

LEG 2 – Jannik Sinner 3–0

After watching Djokovic’s third set against an injured Van de Zandschulp in the third round, followed by the opening two sets against Musetti, it’s hard to see a world where he gets remotely close to Sinner here. That’s before even factoring in his injury concerns, including a significant blister on his heel.

Sinner famously upset Djokovic at the 2024 Australian Open on his way to his first Grand Slam title. Since then, the Italian has won the last eight sets between them, including straight-set wins in the semi-finals of both the French Open and Wimbledon last year.

While Sinner has shown minor signs of physical issues, it’s nothing compared to where Novak is at right now. Just look back to last year’s semi-final, where Djokovic lasted only one set against Zverev.

Multi = $2.70

LEG 1 – Sabalenka vs Svitolina Over 20.5 Games

Although the majority of both Sabalenka and Svitolina’s matches have gone under this Australian Open, I expect this contest to be tight and potentially go to three sets.

Sabalenka’s semi-final record at majors is underwhelming for someone of her status. The Belarusian is 7–6, with nine of those 13 matches going the distance, and more importantly, 12 of the 13 clearing the total games line.

Sabalenka leads the career head-to-head 5–1, with the majority played on clay, but across those six meetings, five have gone over 20.5 total games, including three that went to three sets.

LEG 2 – Elena Rybakina

The form line for the Kazakh has been incredible, and she made Iga Swiatek look second-best in their quarter-final.

Rybakina is 18–1 since October 13, including winning the WTA Finals without dropping a set, which coincided with reuniting with former coach Stefano Vukov.

She has now won eight straight matches against top-10 opposition and has beaten Pegula twice at the back end of 2025.

Pegula has been outstanding this tournament, but I think Rybakina is operating at a significantly higher level than Keys and Anisimova, who recorded 28 and 44 unforced errors respectively.

Multi = $2.40

LEG 1 – Jannik Sinner First Set

The handicap and total games markets appear perfectly set for this matchup, with plenty of hard-court history between Sinner and Shelton where the outcomes have landed freakishly close to the lines each time they meet.

I considered straight sets, but had some concerns around Sinner’s wellbeing and the improvement in Shelton’s game, so landed on Sinner to win the first set as a safer multi kicker.

Sinner has won his last 19 sets against Shelton and it’s hard to see a clear pathway for the American to consistently trouble the Italian’s serve.

LEG 2 – Jessica Pegula To Win A Set

Pegula has been the form player of the tournament so far, emphasised by her straight-sets demolition of Madison Keys.

Although pre-tournament I thought Anisimova was the one to beat, she hasn’t been at an outstanding level, making a number of errors against Wang in the fourth round, while the scoreline against Siniakova in round two was flattering.

Pegula holds a 3-0 career record over Anisimova, although in their two most recent meetings in 2024 Anisimova was ranked outside the top 100. Pegula has won a set in six of her last seven hard-court matches against top-10 opposition, and the way she’s playing suggests she can do so again here.

LEG 3 – Iga Swiatek To Win A Set

I was slightly surprised to see Swiatek priced as the underdog in this quarter-final against Rybakina.

Rybakina did win the WTA Finals late last year, but there are concerns around her consistency in the two-week Grand Slam format, with this being her first quarter-final appearance since Wimbledon 2024.

Swiatek has won four of her last five matches against Rybakina and has taken at least one set in each of their last eight meetings.

LEG 4 – Novak Djokovic -1.5 Set Handicap

Musetti has spent nearly double the time on court compared to Djokovic at this Australian Open, while the Serbian’s fourth-round walkover came at the perfect time for the 38-year-old.

Djokovic holds a dominant 9-1 career record over Musetti, including 4-0 on hard courts. Their most recent meeting came in the Athens Final late last year, with Djokovic winning in straight sets. They also met in Miami earlier in 2025, where Djokovic won 6-2, 6-2.

In completed Grand Slam matches against top-10 opponents not named Sinner or Alcaraz, Djokovic has won his last eight in four sets or fewer. Well rested and battle-hardened, he should be too strong again here.

Multi = $3.45

LEG 1 – Learner Tien To Win A Set

Learner Tien has caused Daniil Medvedev plenty of issues over the past 12 months due to his unique style, and although Alexander Zverev should have fewer problems than the Russian, this won’t be regulation for the German.

The American has played Zverev twice in the last 12 months, with Tien winning their hard-court battle in Acapulco, while the German was too good on clay — which we won’t read too heavily into given Tien’s poor record on the surface.

Zverev has beaten two top-50 players consecutively at a major in straight sets just once in the past four and a half years. He knocked off Cerundolo in straights last round, but I don’t see him hitting Tien off the court this easily.

LEG 2 – Alcaraz vs De Minaur Over 9.5 Games First Set

Somewhat of an obscure market, but I expect the Australian to come out all guns blazing here, with De Minaur arguably playing the best tennis of his career at this Australian Open.

The career record sits at 5-0 in Alcaraz’s favour, but none of those matches have been complete whitewashes. De Minaur would much prefer to face Alcaraz than Sinner due to the more erratic nature of the Spaniard.

Across their five meetings, all five first sets have gone over 9.5 total games, including three that reached 7-5 or a tiebreak, with the Australian winning one of them. Two of Alcaraz’s four first sets at this Australian Open have gone to tiebreakers — there’s a big chance we see another here.

LEG 3 – Iva Jovic Over 5.5 Games

The 18-year-old has been one of the stories of this Australian Open and she will trouble Sabalenka, who has been doing enough to win but hasn’t looked at her best so far.

Of all quarter-finalists, Iva Jovic has the best service plus return points won percentage at 123.4%, with Sabalenka sitting at 115% by comparison.

Against top-50 opposition at hard-court majors, Sabalenka has conceded over 5.5 games in 10 of her last 11 matches, with the majority of those going well over the total. The way Jovic is playing, this won’t be easy for Sabalenka, assuming the American can keep her nerves in check.

Multi = $3.45

LEG 1 – Ben Shelton

Ben Shelton was super impressive against Vacherot in his third-round encounter, and I just can’t see how Casper Ruud beats the American here.

Ruud does own the head-to-head, including a hard-court win at Acapulco the last time they met, but that was two years ago.

Shelton is now inside the top ten in the world and continues to perform on the big stage, particularly at the Australian Open. Since July last year, the American is 11-3 on hard courts against players ranked between 11 and 50. He gets this done.

LEG 2 – Madison Keys To Win A Set

Jessica Pegula has been outstanding so far, dropping just ten games across her three matches.

That said, Madison Keys is a very different proposition to Pegula’s previous opponents. Last year’s champion hasn’t been as dominant early, but she’s still yet to drop a set on her way to the fourth round.

Keys beat Pegula in last year’s Adelaide final and owns a 2-1 head-to-head record over her compatriot, including a dominant US Open win in 2023, the only time they’ve met at a major.

Pegula is 3-7 against top-10 opposition on hard courts over the past 12 months, dropping at least one set in nine of those ten matches. If Keys loses this, it’s in three.

LEG 3 – Musetti vs Fritz Over 3.5 Sets

I wasn’t overly impressed with Taylor Fritz’s performance against Stan Wawrinka. While the circumstances were emotional with Stan’s Australian Open farewell, he’s still 40 years old and playing in 40-degree heat.

I’ve been far more impressed with Musetti’s run so far through a tougher draw featuring Collignon, Sonego and Machac.

Their head-to-head sits at 3-3, but it’s the Italian who has won three of the last four meetings, including a five-set Wimbledon thriller in 2024. This shapes as another tight one.

LEG 4 – Amanda Anisimova

With Sabalenka and Swiatek both looking slightly vulnerable, Anisimova can sense a major opportunity.

The American is 12-2 on hard courts over the past 52 weeks against players ranked between 21 and 50. While Xin Yu Wang is dangerous, she’s just 1-7 against top-10 opposition on hard courts across her career.

Multi = $3.78

LEG 1 – Tien vs Medvedev Over 3.5 Sets

This is a difficult matchup for Daniil Medvedev. He has faced Learner Tien three times since 2025, including last year’s Australian Open where the American stunned the former finalist.

Tien then backed it up by beating Medvedev in Beijing in September, before Medvedev claimed their most recent meeting at the Shanghai Masters.

All three matches have seen both players win at least one set. With Medvedev still not firing at his best and Tien in strong form this tournament, this has all the makings of another long battle.

LEG 2 – De Minaur vs Bublik Over 3.5 Sets

This won’t be straightforward for Alex De Minaur against an opponent he knows very well.

Alexander Bublik’s breakout run began against De Minaur at the French Open when trailing 2-0. The Kazakh went on to upset the Australian and produce a career-best stretch that has pushed him inside the world’s top 10.

Bublik also beat De Minaur later in the year at the Paris Masters, with both of their meetings last season going the distance. Expect another tight contest.

LEG 3 – Iva Jovic

The 18-year-old American currently owns the best combined service and return point numbers of any player at this Australian Open and dismantled Paolini in the previous round, with the second-set scoreline flattering the Italian.

Jovic now faces Putintseva, who was pushed hard in a physical battle on the outside courts against Sonmez and a heavily represented Turkish crowd.

I think the Kazakh has reached her ceiling here. Jovic looks well placed to book a spot in her first Grand Slam quarter-final.

LEG 4 – Zverev vs Cerundolo Over 3.5 Sets

Cerundolo clearly matches up well with elite baseliners, and Alexander Zverev is another top-tier opponent he has consistently troubled.

The Argentine beat Zverev twice last season on clay and also pushed him on hard courts later in the year. He retired in Canada, but took Zverev to a tight 6-4 7-6 loss in their Davis Cup clash.

Cerundolo holds a 3-2 career head-to-head edge and is playing outstanding tennis at this Australian Open, while every one of Zverev’s matches so far has gone over the total games line. Another extended contest looks likely.

Multi = $4.18

LEG 1 – Shelton vs Vacherot Over 3.5 Sets

Ben Shelton is awfully short in this third-round match with miracle man Valentin Vacherot.

Over the last 12 months, Vacherot’s service points and return points won are better than the American’s against top-20 opposition, and even stronger against top-100 opposition.

Shelton probably gets the job done and is a proven performer at Grand Slams, but Vacherot will challenge the American.

LEG 2 – Karen Khachanov

This is a third-round gimme for Karen Khachanov when he faces clay-courter Luciano Darderi.

Darderi beat Baez in the second round, with the Argentine finally running out of legs after a huge lead-up and a five-setter in the opening round.

There’s no way the Italian will challenge Khachanov in this.

LEG 3 – Jakub Mensik

An impressive performance by Mensik against rising star Jodar. He now faces Ethan Quinn, who he’s got recent experience against.

The Czech beat him twice last year without dropping a set. It was comfortable at the Cincinnati Masters with a 6-4 6-2 victory.

Quinn has done well on paper, and taking nothing away from the American, but Griekspoor was in putrid form leading in, while Hurkacz was spent after returning from a long lay-off.

LEG 4 – Cilic vs Ruud Over 3.5 Sets

Casper Ruud was too good on Day 5 when he beat Munar in straight sets, with us requiring the match to go to at least four sets. That being said, I do think Marin Cilic takes a set against the Norwegian here.

Cilic is yet to drop a set this tournament, dismantling Shapovalov last match, and the night session will avoid the extreme heat for the veteran.

Although Ruud probably gets it done, I can see this going to five.

Multi = $3.68

LEG 1 – Tommy Paul

The American was out of sorts last year, but has returned in 2026 after an extended injury break following the US Open and looks back to his best.

He’s yet to drop a set in this tournament and has completely owned Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina throughout his career. With a 4-0 head-to-head record, Paul smashed ADF the last time they met at last year’s Australian Open, winning 6-1 6-1 6-1.

With ADF pushed to five sets by Opelka last round, Paul looks primed to dominate again.

LEG 2 – Learner Tien

The 20-year-old American has shown enough in this tournament to suggest he should be too good for Nuno Borges.

Borges’ path here raises some concerns. He beat an unwell Auger-Aliassime in round one and then needed four sets to get past Jordan Thompson, who is still working his way back after an injury-hit season.

Tien’s hard-court metrics over the past 12 months are clearly stronger, so backing the Next Gen Finals champion makes sense.

LEG 3 – Alexander Zverev

Zverev can drift in and out of matches early in majors, but Cam Norrie shapes as no real threat here.

Zverev leads the head-to-head 6-1, with Norrie’s only win coming back in 2013 when both players were ranked outside the top 800. Aside from their five-set battle at last year’s Australian Open, Zverev hasn’t dropped a set in the other five meetings.

LEG 4 – Andrey Rublev

Rublev trails Francisco Cerundolo 3-1 head-to-head, but three of those matches were on clay where the Argentine holds a clear advantage.

Their most recent meeting at the 2024 Paris Masters went Cerundolo’s way in two tiebreaks, but that came during a rough stretch for Rublev while Cerundolo was in strong form.

Since late July, Cerundolo is just 9-9 on hard courts and 2-7 against top-50 opposition. With Rublev starting 2025 well on hard courts, the Russian looks set to turn the tables.

Multi = $4.61