All of that said, BlueBet traders still back in New Zealand to clasp their hands on the Webb Ellis Cup for the third time on the trot. They sit at $2.25 to be the eventual winners. Rieko Iane ($9.00), Sevu Reece ($9.00) and George Bridge ($10.00) are first, second and third favourites for top tryscorer. Despite the losing the Rugby Championship for the first time in four years, the All Blacks are still a steady bettor’s favourite.

Next favourite is England at a clean $5. The English had a torrid 2015 World Cup on home soil but have looked solid under the chaotic reign of Eddie Jones. Their pack will come in as one of the strongest in the field and the scoring ability of Owen Farrell puts them in a good position to choke teams out via the scoreboard.

If you bet on England, you’ll probably have a knot in your gut until South Africa is out of the tournament. Just behind them at $5.50, the Springboks feel like a much safer bet, especially if they can get an upset win in their second group match against New Zealand which would give them a likely quarter-final matchup with either Samoa or Scotland. Remembering that the Boks tied with a full strength All Blacks team in the Rugby Championship, it’s not hard to imagine.

Ireland and Wales are sitting at $9 and $11 dollars respectively, while Australia rounds out the realistic favourites at a tempting $14 dollars. Ireland benefits from their good form when the pools were decided and sit in by far the easiest situation in Pool A with Scotland, Samoa, Japan and Russia.  However, some pundits predict the weaker competition could come back to bite them in the knock-out stages. Wales and Australia will face each other in the pool stage and both will view their second weekend matchup and a barometer for their chances, as should bettors.

Rounding this up, New Zealand is the safe bet to win. Their squad is superior and recent World Cup history is written in black ink. South Africa and England are good back up plans. If you’re one of the Wallabies’ believers, now’s your chance, the odds will never be better.

Prediction: All Blacks to win @ $2.25, Sevu Reece top try scorer @ $9.00

Spring Tour
Engalnd v Australia
2:00am Sunday 25 November 2018
Twickenham Stadium

The Wallabies’ annus horribilis comes to an end this weekend at Twickenham, and the home of rugby could yet be a graveyard if things don’t go well for the men in gold. The English lie in wait, seemingly having turned their form around over the last couple of weeks, most notably with a desperately unlucky loss to the All Blacks. Old Randwick mates Michael Cheika and Eddie Jones will be in the coaches boxes, keen to get one over their ex-teammate. If the Wallabies can aim up, this one should be a beauty.

Last week’s victory over the plucky Italians did little to settle the nerves of Australian fans. An early disallowed try from the Azzuri could have turned this match on its head, but instead the Wallabies used the minutes either side of half time to build an unassailable lead with three quick tries. There were some clear standouts for the Aussies, with Izack Rodda playing his best game in gold, Taniela Tupou proving that he can be an effective starter, Samu Kerevi causing headaches all night, and 34 year old Adam Ashley-Cooper showing that he can still contribute in the twilight of his career. The wily veteran reminded everyone exactly what has been missing from this Wallabies backline, a cool head who does the basics well, runs straight and offers support. It’s very simple, but it’s very effective.

Elsewhere, though, there were plenty of things to work on. The backline still stood far too deep, and looked to go sideways too early. Bernard Foley is not an inside centre, despite Cheika’s belief he has the attributes to play there. David Pocock was brilliant over the ball, but his back row mates didn’t offer the ball carrying grunt required of them. The kicking game again looked lost, the insistence to kick down the middle of the field frustrating for fans, and there is still a willingness to push the final pass from the outside backs when it’s not on. No doubt England will be looking to capitalise on these mistakes.

Cheika’s team to face the English continues the recent trend of surprising selections and confusing calls. Somehow, Foley has retained the number 12, despite every other team in world rugby abandoning the dual playmaker approach 3 years ago. Israel Folau stays at fullback, pushing Dane Haylett-Petty out onto the wing, where he has been less effective, and Jack Maddocks replaces Marika Koriobete after he bagged 2 tries last week. Clearly Cheika still doesn’t know what his first choice backline is.

Up front, Scott Sio, Tolu Latu and Sekope Kepu reunite as a front row, while the rest of the pack is unchanged from Italy. Pocock has been passed fit despite an injury concern, and his selection underlines the importance of this fixture to the Australians. The bench looks light on for firepower and impact, with no Taniela Tupou or Kurtley Beale included. If the Wallabies need to find points down the stretch, it’s difficult to see one of the finishers providing the spark.

England have essentially returned to a full strength side after their clash with the Japanese last week. Ben Youngs and Owen Farrell will steer the team around, behind an intimidating forward pack led by big locks Courtney Lawes and Maro Itoje. Ben Teo gets another crack at inside centre, and he should be licking his lips at the site of Foley opposite him, while big Manu Tuilagi will be looking to make an impact from the bench.

England were dynamic early against the All Blacks, and will bring that same intensity to the opening 20 minutes against the Wallabies. If the Aussies are as pedestrian in the opening exchanges as they were last week, they could find themselves down by 3 tries before they have settled into the game. Expect Farrell to use his kicking game to pressure Australia, particularly with the high ball. Their big pack will look to rumble over the gain line, and give their finishers some room to move. The Australian midfield defence will be under scrutiny all night.

Matt Toomua will need to be excellent for the Aussies to have a chance. He needs to play closer to the advantage line, and his kicking needs to be purposeful and effective. Foley has to straighten his attack, and they both need to get early ball to Kerevi. Cheika has sacrificed pace out wide for safety under the high ball, so the gains must come in midfield, not on the flanks. It’s not a backline that looks particularly frightening, so it must be effective.

The set piece will again be crucial, and Latu needs to own the line out early or it will be a long night. The scrum looks strong, but will still be targeted by the English. Rodda and Coleman need to have huge running games and Kepu and Latu need to keep their discipline in order. This is a lot to ask of a team who haven’t looked settled all year, but with one game to go, now is the time to produce something special.

England deservedly start strong favourites, and it would be a brave punter to tip an upset at Twickenham. The 8.5 points start might not be enough for the Aussies, so England minus the handicap at $1.92 is our best bet of the week.

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Spring Tour
Italy v Australia
1:00am Sunday 18 November 2018
Stadio Euganeo, Padova

The Wallabies’ Spring Tour continues in Italy this weekend, and after last weekend’s insipid loss to Wales, this game takes on an almost seismic importance. The snapping of the 13 game winning streak against the Welsh, and the failure to score a try in 80 minutes of rugby, means that the Italian clash has transformed from an opportunity to take a few risks to a match that could actually bring down this current Australian set up. Despite Raelene Castle publicly backing Michael Cheika to the next World Cup, a loss to the Italians, followed by a likely loss to the English would surely make his position untenable. Make no mistake, this match is a potential career ender.

Some fans would argue that that wouldn’t be the worst result in the world, given the lack of improvement shown by the Wallabies under this current coaching structure. The performance against Wales was so devoid of positives that it’s difficult to single out any particular negatives. Set piece, backline structure, forward momentum, the breakdown, the kicking game… it was all underwhelming. Perhaps there is something salvageable in the fact they didn’t concede any tries, but anyone looking to take positives from this performance is missing the point. This is a team that is so far off the pace, so deficient in basic skills and game sense, and has shown no improvement in the past 2 years, that surely heads must begin to roll. Fans simply cannot be expected to keep faith with a team who continue to pick the same players, make the same mistakes, and get the same results. Many have already given up, but for the rusted on true believers, the match this weekend is as big as they come.

As painful as it will have been for the team, they must have confronted the demons of the Welsh game this week with a view to where they must improve. Michael Hooper has admitted the error of his ways in ignoring penalty goals, so expect plenty of shots at goal this weekend. The kicking in general play was aimless, simply handing back possession in good field position for no apparent gain. The lineout failed at key times, though it was a rough day for both teams, particularly early. The backline stood far too deep, insisted on going wide too early, and crabbed sideways when it was running out of options. Sound familiar? Frustratingly so.

Cheika’s team for this weekend contains a number of new faces, but maybe not quite as many as he might have planned before last week’s loss. The team will be steered by Jake Gordon at halfback and Matt Toomua at flyhalf, a bold and exciting halves pairing, but they will have the safety net of Bernard Foley at inside centre, a curious choice from the coach. Samu Kerevi stays at 13, while Jordan Petaia and Adam Ashley-Cooper, at 18 and 34 respectively, are wildly contradicting selections on the wing. Australia can’t wait to see what Petaia can do in gold, but we already have a fair idea what Ashley-Cooper can do, while Tom Banks continues to play tourist on this trip. Israel Folau returns to fullback, where again it would have been interesting to see what Banks could offer. A backline of Gordon, Toomua, Folau, Kerevi, Petaia, Naivalu and Banks would have been the bolder play, and potentially a backline that could challenge the top teams in a World Cup next year.

There are less surprises in the forward pack, with only the usual front row rotation being made. David Pocock and Michael Hooper will both play despite the argument that they could have benefited from a rest before the English game, as Cheika has tied himself to this backrow combination. Taniela Tupou gets another opportunity to stake a claim for a starting berth, and while his scrummaging has been solid of late, he will be keen to reignite his running game against the Italians.

It is stating the obvious to say that the Australians need to win this weekend, but they also need to win well. A scrappy victory over a plucky Italian team will do nothing to silence the cilritica calling for change. This must start at the set piece, which needs to be flawless. Any lost ball or field position at scrum or line out time is simply unacceptable. The forwards must run to space, using footwork to get over the advantage line and get momentum in the attack. Toomua must play flatter than Foley, and Foley must offer some straight running lines for Toomua. The kicking game must be purposeful, pinning the Italians in their own half and finding space or the line when required. And we simply must take the points when they are on offer, particularly early in the game, but later if we need to. There is just no room for sloppiness in a game that could potentially end careers.

This is a really tricky game for punters to take on, with the Aussies so short in the betting but so unpredictable. The 16.5 points start for the Italians is a difficult one to call as well, so let’s back young Jordan Petaia to being his barnstorming NRC form into the Test arena, and grab a try in his debut. Jordan Petaia as anytime try scorer is our best bet of the week.

Italy v Australia

Italy $7.50
Australia $1.09

Line +/-16.5

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Spring Tour
Wales v Australia
4:20am Sunday 11 November 2018
Principality Stadium – Cardiff

The European leg of the Wallabies’ Spring Tour kicks off this weekend with a clash with the Welsh in Cardiff, and the result could be significant for a number of reasons. The Australians have an intimidating recent record over Wales, unbeaten in their last 13 starts, but the majority of those have been closely fought affairs without much between the teams. Importantly, the two sides will meet again in pool play at the World Cup next year, so a confidence boosting victory this weekend would be valuable for both.

The Welsh ground out a strong victory over an understrength Scotland last weekend, and there were a couple of positive signs for Warren Gatland to build on. His loose forwards were powerful, and the backline showed glimpses of their dangerous best through tries to George North and Jonathan Davies. Leigh Halfpenny was strong at the back, and his boot was dependable. This is a Welsh team that is building nicely towards the World Cup after a couple of underwhelming seasons.

The Wallabies are coming towards the end of a torrid 2018, and any positives they can take from these final three matches would be more than welcome. Their last start loss to the All Blacks in Japan was depressingly predictable, with some encouraging early signs giving way to the usual errors and inevitable tsunami of Kiwi tries at the back end of the game. Most encouraging was the impact from the bench from returning stars Samu Kerevi and Jack Dempsey. Both were able to make incisive runs late in the game, a characteristic missing from so many Wallaby performances in recent memory. With positions at outside centre and blindside flanker still very much up in the air, both have a real opportunity to use this tour to press their claims for next year. On the topic of outside centres, the two most talked about selections of the Spring Tour squad are clearly 34 year old Adam Ashley-Cooper and 18 year old Jordan Petaia. Ashley-Cooper is keen to make a run for the World Cup, and Cheika will be keen to see how his speed and fitness have held up while playing abroad. For all of his perceived faults, most notably his unwillingness, or inability, to pass to his outside men, Ashley-Cooper is a genuine tryscorer, and the Wallabies have been woefully short of those in recent times. One would hope that Australian rugby wouldn’t be in the predicament of having to recall a 34 year old, but after this season all bets are off.

Petaia, on the other hand, represents all that is good about the next generation of Australian rugby. Big, fast and skilful, he dominated the NRC for QLD Country after an excellent debut season for the Reds. After playing most of the Super Rugby season on the wing, the move in to 13 has seen him really hit his straps, and though we won’t see him this weekend, it is quite possible he could be thrown a gold jumper as soon as next weekend against the Italians. With another 12 months under his belt, he could be a key weapon for the Wallabies at the World Cup.

Cheika has wasted no time rushing both Kerevi and Dempsey back into the starting team this weekend. In the forwards, this means Ned Hannigan returns to the bench, while Tolu Latu has also been handed just his second start despite his ill discipline against the All Blacks. Elsewhere, the pack looks as expected, with Adam Coleman returning to the starting team over Rob Simmons. The Hooper-Pocock backrow combination continues, as it will do right through to the World Cup, despite many fans’ misgivings. If Dempsey can provide the grunt and mobility that other recent blindside flankers have struggled with, then we might see a way forward with this formation.

Kerevi’s return at 13 sees Israel Folau shift back out to the wing, but surpsingly it is Cheika favourite Marika Koriobete who drops out of the 23, with Sefa Naivalu being given a deserved second chance after his try scoring performance against New Zealand. Genia, Foley, Beale and Hayley-Petty all hold their spots, but each still has something to prove. The midfield defence will be all important, with the Welsh posing several attacking threats out wide. Beale and Kerevi have had their issues in defence in the past, so expect Wales to throw plenty of traffic their way.
The set piece shapes as a crucial battle ground this weekend. The Wallabies’ scrum is solid, but has not been its dominant self since Mario Ledesma left the coaching ranks. The lineout has been near disastrous this year, with far too many attacking opportunities squandered with inaccurate throws or shoddy timing. Alun Wyn-Jones will be marshalling his troops at every set piece, well aware they are an opportunity to disrupt the Australians’ service. News this week that the Wallabies’ hookers plan to take more ownership of the team’s lineout woes is encouraging, but worryingly belated. Latu must improve his accuracy, and but the decision makers need to get the calls right too. Another rough night in this department will make like extremely tough for the Aussies.

Much will rest on the shoulders of Kerevi, as the Wallabies have lacked any backline punch in recent times. His hard, straight running should be a target for Foley and Beale, and if he can get over the advantage line consistently, the Wallabies can play off the back of front foot ball as well as anyone. Expect to see both wingers sitting on Kerevi’s shoulder at some stage as he pokes through looking for an offload. Will Genia looked tired in his last outing, so if he doesn’t show some spark this weekend there will be pressure to give Nick Phipps and Joe Gordon some more significant game time in the coming matches.

Neither team look set to run away with this one, so much will depend on the bouts if Halfpenny and Foley. While Halfpenny is near robotic in his accuracy, Foley can be rocks or diamonds, and the Wallabies can’t afford rocks this weekend. Hooper needs to take the points when they are on offer, and build scoreboard pressure at every opportunity.

The Betting

Wales start slight favourites in this one, paying $1.82 to the Aussies’ $2.00. The Welsh will take confidence from their defeat of Scotland last weekend, but the Scots were severely undermanned and didn’t ask the Welsh a lot of questions. Given the Wallabies excellent recent record here, the Australians head to head is our best bet of the week.

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Bledisloe Cup – Game 3
New Zealand v Australia
5:00pm Saturday 27 October 2018
Nissan Stadium – Tokyo

It may seem incongruous that we are revisiting the Bledisloe Cup, secured by New Zealand back in August, but we head to Japan on Saturday night for game 3 of this year’s series. The corresponding dead rubber in 2017 saw Australia restore a modicum of pride, and that will again be the goal for the Wallabies this weekend. New Zealand won’t be the understrength team for the taking that they were last year, and Australia have had a rollercoaster 2018 with more lows than highs, so this will be a real test of the Wallabies’ resolve in their continued march towards the World Cup.

Trying to read a form line out of the Wallabies’ last outing is a head scratching exercise. Down 31-7 to Argentina at half time, they mounted a record breaking comeback to seal a memorable, and much needed, victory. It is difficult to know which half was the aberration, but the struggles of 2018 suggest that the first half is a truer representation of the state of this team than the second. Coach Michael Cheika claimed that his half time spray contained no technical information, but that belies the fact that the Wallabies’ comeback was not based on spirit or desire, but a clear tactical change. They went away from the lateral game that had failed them for two years, and straightened the attack, with runners hitting space and looking to offload with free hands. Unsurprisingly, except perhaps to the coaching staff, this resulted in a much more direct attack, that bent the line and created space for support runners, resulting in a deluge of tries like we haven’t seen from this team in a long time. This is the type of play Australian fans have been screaming out for, an acknowledgement that basics are still important, and that you have to earn the right to go wide by doing the tough stuff in the middle first. If Cheika and Stephen Larkham ignore this lesson, Australian fans will again be pulling their hair out on Saturday night.

This Test, followed by the three Spring Tour fixtures in the UK and Europe, are vitally important for Australia. After a horror 2018, the team must show that the patience being granted them is worth the investment, and that improvements are coming. There are not enough matches between now and the World Cup for the Wallabies to stay in this transition period, and results need to start improving immediately.

Cheika and his Wallabies have to cope with a number of forced absences from the team on Saturday, highlighted by the resting Lukhan Tui, the injured Reece Hodge, and the UK-bound Matt Toomua, three of the more promising performers over 2018. Another late blow has hit the Wallabies with the withdrawal through injury of lock enforcer Adam Coleman, who is replaced by Rob Simmons. Up front, Taniela Tupou returns to the bench, where Cheika will be hoping he rediscovers the dynamic late impact he was making in previous games. Allan Alaalatoa comes into the starting pack alongside Folau Fainga’a and Scott Sio. The rest of the pack remains unchanged, with Ned Hannigan joining David Pocock and skipper Michael Hooper in the back row. This still feels unbalanced, but Cheika will be sticking by this formation right through to the World Cup.

Out wide, Israel Folau moves in one spot to replace Hodge in the centres, a position he filled on occasion for the Waratahs this year with indifferent success. His biggest test will come in defence, trying to cover the difficult channel at 13. Sefa Naivalu comes onto the wing for the first time in a year, with a great opportunity to stake a claim for the rest of the tour. The last time he played Test football be scored a double against the Italians, and his blinding speed must be utilised in Saturday. Excitingly, Samu Kerevi makes his return from injury via the bench, and he will be sure to be given 20 minutes to blow the cobwebs out.

The Kiwis have named a slightly experimental team for the dead rubber clash, with TJ Perenara and Damien McKenzie being given rare starts at halfback and fullback respectively. Sonny Bill Williams lines up in the centres, and his clash with the Aussie midfield will be mouthwatering. No less than five key forwards are making their returns from injury, highlighted by the influential Brodie Retallick. Despite the back line changes, this team will be desperate to secure the clean sweep they missed out on in 2017.

Like always, the forward battle will go a long way to deciding this one, and on paper it looks extraordinarily one sided in favour of the Kiwis. The Aussies may struggle to hold their own, and can’t simply try to bash and barge their way through this pack. Angled runs, hitting spaces instead of bodies, taking the ball through the advantage line and supporting the ball runner will all be crucial elements if they are to be successful. The second man plays need to be shelved, with lead runners used as first options before going wide. The scrums look relatively evenly matched, but the line out could be an area the Wallabies are exposed if they’re not careful.

The backline’s biggest challenge will be transition defence, especially with a new combination in the centres. Plenty of traffic will be sent at Folau and Kurtley Beale, and any turnover ball won by the Kiwis will be quickly spread to the space out wide. McKenzie is especially dangerous in this respect, and Australia’s traditionally slow adjustment in transition poses a serious threat. In attack, there is no shortage of strike power in the Wallabies, but getting the ball to these runners at the right time and in space will be the challenge. Much again rests on Bernard Foley and Beale, and their jobs will be made that much easier if they are working with front foot ball.

Bledisloe Cup Bets Bets

This match looks incredibly daunting for the Australians, not unwinable, but very different to the corresponding match last year. The Kiwis are deserved heavy favourites at $1.13 to $6.10 for the Aussies, and it’s hard to make a case for an upset. Even the 15.5 points start looks difficult to defend, so the Kiwis -15.5 the handicap at $1.87 is our best bet of the week.

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Rugby League Test
Tonga v Australia
Saturday 20 October 2018
Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland

If last week was just the appetiser, then this week’s main course could be something special. The lead up to the Kangaroos’ battle with New Zealand was a little overshadowed by the prospect of the Aussies’ first meeting with the Tongans, coming this Saturday night at Mt Smart Stadium, a mouth-watering clash if ever there was one. If the Kiwis were just the undercard, then nobody told them, as they produced a spirited display to out muscle, out enthuse and ultimately out play the fancied Australians. The Kangaroos are reeling, and the islanders must sense an opportunity to land a killer blow on the powerhouse team. The representative retirements of the big four have left a sizeable hole in this Australian outfit, and their replacements need to find their feet quickly or the team will be facing consecutive losses for the first time in a calendar year since 1978.

Last week did not go at all to script for Mal Meninga’s team. The early loss of Luke Keary was a huge blow, as Ben Hunt was ill prepared to enter the game in that role, and Daly Cherry-Evans struggled to control the game without his left side partner. Any talk that the injury cost Australia the game, though, is well wide of the mark, and neglects to give the Kiwis the credit they deserve. As previewed before the game, the middle third was going to be key for the New Zealanders, and they went about dominating the Aussies through the pack for the most of the 80 minutes. David Klemmer was the only Australian forward to run for more than 100 metres, and more often than not Australia were finishing their sets either in their own half or just over halfway. The Kiwis, on the other hand, marched up field with relative ease, usually off the back of a strong kick return from outstanding skipper and fullback Dallin Watene-Zalezniak. Martin Tapau, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Jesse Bromwich were outstanding, and gave the Tongans the blueprint on how to ruffle these Australians’ feathers. The New Zealanders also unearthed some future stars at international level, with Brandon Smith outpointing Damien Cook, and Joseph Manu doing the same to his clubmate Latrell Mitchell. This feels like a Kiwi team building for the future, and the future looks bright.

The Australians, for all of the dominance the Kiwis held, still managed to come within a whisker of stealing the match, so there is something to build on. Early on, it looked like the left side combination of Keary, Boyd Cordner, Mitchell and Valentine Holmes might win this one on their own, as they ran through the Kiwis at will and scored after only a handful of minutes. Cherry-Evans produced a couple of key plays that led to points, and it must have been a torrid night for a halfback playing behind a well beaten pack. Cook and Mitchell will be better for their first run in green and gold, and Klemmer was outstanding up front. He is now the leader of this pack, and must continue to stamp his authority on games as he did last weekend. The Australians need to maximise these positives heading into this weekend, and the Tongans will know the class they are up against.

Meninga has named an unchanged 17 for the Tonga clash, including Keary who has recovered from the concussion suffered last week. Reagan Campbell-Gillard can again consider himself unlucky, as Aaron Woods was one of a number of forwards who didn’t aim up last week. It is arguable if Ben Hunt provides the same spark off the bench as David Peachey, but the Dragons’ halfback will again don the number 14 jersey, and will probably give Cook another spell early in the second half. Skipper Boyd Cordner will know how much improvement is required of his forward pack, so expect the likes of Josh McGuire and Jordan McLean to be much more active in the middle. If there is little to no improvement from the big men from last week, the Kangaroos will be in trouble.

The Tongans have named a team with a number of key dangermen the Aussies will be wary of. The forward pack is full of big, mobile, ball playing forwards who will smell blood after watching last week’s match. Led by Andrew Fifita and Jason Taumalolo, this is a pack that will throw fast legs and quick hands at the Kangaroos all night. Tui Lolohea will call most of the shots from five-eighth, and he will be looking to feed the likes of Michael Jennings and Solomone Kata early ball often. There are some real finishers out wide, so any half chances will likely be converted by Daniel Tupou and the athletic David Fusitu’a. Will Hopoate is playing the best football of his career, and he will be another backline leader from fullback. In front of a sell out crowd that will be staunchly behind the Tongans, this team will come to play.

The big question to be answered on Saturday night is which Australian team will turn up. If the Roos roll out the same attitude as last week, when they were clearly not as aggressive or emotional as the Kiwis, the Tongans will eat them alive. The Australian forwards must find a way to control the middle third, meaning quick line speed on Fifita and Taumalolo, and cutting the likes Tevita Pangai Jnr down early. There is so much class in the Aussie backline that they won’t need many chances, but they won’t get many if Klemmer, McGuire and McLean are out muscled.

The battle in the halves is a lottery, with the Cherry-Evans and Keary combination still an unknown. Their plan must be to hit Mitchell and Trjobevic early with space in front of them, as they proved last week how damaging they can be. James Tedesco was dangerous as well, and should work his way into the game behind his forwards in the middle before he starts swooping out wide. Damien Cook must look to run more often then he did last week, but again, his effectiveness will depend on the work of his forwards.
The try scoring fire-power across both backlines is astounding, so it won’t surprise to see some cracking finishes in the corners. This might be a match of half chances, given how desperate the defence should be. If that’s the case, expect some tough calls for the video referees as these athletic wingers test their limits.

Tonga will undoubtedly rely on emotion and intensity in the early exchanges, and it will be up to the Australians to weather that storm. The Kangaroos are raging favourites at $1.26, with Tonga paying a juicy $3.85 in a very winnable match. The 11.5 points start for the Tongans looks like enough for them to defend, so Tonga with the +11.5 start at $1.93 is out best bet of the week.

Head to Head

Tonga $3.85
Australia $1.26

Line
-11.5 1.87
+11.5 1.93

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Enjoy your footy!

Rugby League Test
New Zelanad v Australia
Saturday 13 October 2018
Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland

After the most dramatic grand final week in recent memory, rugby league fans have more to look forward to with the end of year international fixtures right around the corner. On Saturday, the Kangaroos meet the Kiwis at Mt Smart Stadium in what shapes as the start of a new era for both of these teams. The trans-Tasman rivals haven’t met yet this year, and there are a host of new and exciting faces set to do battle this weekend. The Australians consistently start favourites in this clash, but the unknowns in the green and gold, particularly through the spine, will ensure this Test match is more difficult to predict than most.

The representative retirements of Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk, Jonathan Thurston and Billy Slater means that this Australian team is unfamiliar to most fans. Further to the big four being out of the picture, the unavailability of Greg Inglis and Michael Morgan means that this is indeed a very new look team, particularly at the leadership level. Likely five-eighth options James Maloney and Cameron Munster are also unavailable, so Mal Meninga had to consider all of his options before naming his team this week. Some of the new players picked themselves, but there are a couple of surprise inclusions. Damien Cook and James Tedesco were certain selections after their State of Origin performances and club form, and thoroughly deserve their spots. Daly Cherry-Evans’ five star Origin 3 display has rightly earnt him a crack at the vacant number 7, while a stunning Clive Churchill Medal winning performance in the grand final has seen Luke Keary jump into the famous green and gold number 6. This is an untested, albeit in-form spine combination, so there are clearly some unknowns in terms of how this unit hits the ground running. It will surely be an area the Kiwis will target for some early attention by their big forwards.

Elsewhere in the backline, Latrell Mitchell and Valentine Holmes were must picks on the left, while Meninga has chosen to slot Tom Trbojevic into the centres inside Dane Gagai, a decision that rasied a couple of eyebrows given their experience in the opposite positions. Meninga loves the go forward that Gagai provides early in sets, and clearly Trbojevic has the ability to ball play from centre, so it may not be as left field a selection as pundits first thought. Jordan McLean is the bolter in the pack, starting up front alongside David Klemmer in a huge show of confidence from the coach. Skipper Boyd Cordner is alongside Felise Kaufusi and Josh McGuire, and the two Queenslanders could consider themselves a little lucky to be starting ahead of benchmen Tyson Frizell and Jake Trbojevic. All four will see big minutes, though, and Frizell can be particularly useful as an impact player against tired legs. Ben Hunt wins the utility role, and it will be interesting to see how much game time he gets behind Cook. It is likely he will give Cook a spell early in the second half, with Cook coming back on at the end of the game to terrorise the Kiwis around the ruck. Aaron Woods should buy a lottery ticket after finding himself in the 17, especially with Origin prop Reagan Campbell-Gillard left out. He would want to make the most of this surprising opportunity.

For the Kiwis, Michael McGuire has named a very different looking team to the one that met the English in Denver earlier in the year, with only 8 players retained from the 17. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak is the new skipper and fullback, replacing the unavailable Roger Tuivasa-Sheck. Storm rake Brandon Smith debuts at hooker, while Shaun Johnson shifts into the number 6 to accommodate Kodi Nikorima at halfback. Like the Aussies, this is a new look spine, and may be clunky to begin the game. There are some real strengths in the backline, with Joseph Manu finishing the season in outstanding form and Jordan Rapana and Ken Maumalo a couple of pure finishers. Up front, there will be some big bodies confronting the Australians, with Jesse Bromwich and Jared Warea-Hargreaves starting and Martin Taupau and Adam Blair coming off the bench. The backrow looks dynamic, and we should see a great battle between the edge players of each pack. This is Kiwi team that is new, bold, and has the potential to unsettle the Aussies.

With so many changes to the teams we have been accustomed to over the last five years, it is difficult to get a read on form heading into this one. Certainly both teams bring some very in-form players into their lineups, with the Kangaroos having a slight advantage in that 3 of their spine went deep into the finals in outstanding form. The unknown is how quickly Cherry-Evans can gel with his new teammates, but given the way he came back into the Queensland team for game 3 this year, and his display in the PM’s XIII game against PNG, he is well up to the task. The Kiwis will be targeting the middle third of the field as a place of strength for them, and their big boppers will know they have a responsibility to get their lightning halves on the front foot early. We have seen Nikorima struggle when playing behind a beaten pack, but also thrive when going forward, so the performance of the pack will be crucial. It’s hard to ignore the class dotted through the Kangaroos team, and if this one goes close they have a number of proven match winners in the important positions. If their pack can hold up, they should have the key players to get the job done.

As we have come to expect, the Aussies will start strong favourites despite being away from home, paying $1.36 to the Kiwis’ $3.15. There is some value there for New Zealand if you think there are too many unknowns in the Kangaroos line-up, but we think the Aussies will be too strong in the end. Australia to win both halves at $2.50 is our best bet of the week.

Head to Head

New Zealand $3.15
Australia $1.36

Line
-8 1.85
+8 1.95

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Enjoy your footy!

Rugby Championship Week 5 Preview
Argentina vs Australia
9:40am Sunday 7 October 2018
Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena

The Wallabies find themselves in Argentina this Sunday morning (Australian time) looking for redemption after their loss to the Pumas 3 weeks ago. In fact, the Wallabies are looking for a lot of things. It has been an abysmal season to date, with just 2 wins from 8 matches, and the pressure mounting on coach and players continues to intensify after each loss. Few players have seen their stocks rise this year, with a couple of notable exceptions, and areas that had previously been considered strengths are no longer seen as such. This final Rugby Championship match won’t be able to fix all of that, but it can begin the healing if the Australians put their best foot forward.

In stark contrast to the plight of the Wallabies, the Pumas have enjoyed a hugely successful season on the back of a great Super Rugby season from the Jaguares. They beat the Springboks at home, and have challenged the All Blacks twice in a couple of weeks. They are no longer the staid, scrum focussed team we associate with Argentine rugby, their new found flair in attack surpassing anything the Wallabies have been able to offer this year. They ran through and around the Aussies on the Gold Coast, with their wingers in particular playing with spiders on them. Nicholas Sanchez is the conductor of this orchestra at flyhalf, his danger with ball in hand a big worry for opposition defences. After going down gallantly to New Zealand last week, they will be primed to finish their tournament with a bang at home.

The Wallabies left themselves with plenty to work on after another insipid performance against South Africa last week. The lineout continued to struggle, the kicking game was inconsistent, and the attack in general was so ineffective they spent more time going backwards than forward. The scrum managed to hold up under some pressure, and the run on debut of Taniela Tupou should be judged on this result as opposed to his lack of running impact. A series of questionable captaincy decisions, including the continual ambivalence to penalty goals, keeps Michael Hooper under the spotlight, and fans weren’t particularly impressed by his insistence in positioning himself on the wing in attack. There is a distinct lack of balance across this team, with so many players playing out of their preferred or natural position. Hooper will never be a traditional number 7, and the rearranging of the pack to accommodate him is wearing thin with the faithful.

There were some positives to come from the match, most notably the solid starting debut of Tupou and the creative nous of Will Genia. Genia’s sniping led to both Australian tries, and his running game must again be a threat this week. David Pocock was huge again, his influence around the field second to none. He might still be playing more of a 7 than 8 role, but he is single handedly turning the momentum of matches with his impact on the ball.

Cheika has made just one change to the starting XV this week, but it is a significant one. Kurtley Beale’s opportunity in the number 10 jumper has come to end, and he will revert to his customary inside centre position after failing to ignite the attack from flyhalf. Bernard Foley has returned to the starting team, with Matt Toomua slipping back to the bench. With Jack Maddocks returning home injured, the exciting Tom Banks gets another chance on the bench, and Caleb Timu and Tolu Latu have also both earnt a shot on the pine. Timu in particular has a real chance to press his claims, with the back row combination still not settled and the recent lack of impact from the bench a factor at the back end of games. If he can come on and make a difference, he could be exactly the type of impact player Cheika is looking for.

It is quite obvious that this is simply a must win game for the Wallabies. Halfback Will Genia has come out and guaranteed a victory, seemingly more in a bid to focus his own teammates than anything else. Foley’s return must straighten the attack, and Beale should relish having a little pressure taken off him in the play making department. The kicking game will be back under scrutiny, and Reece Hodge needs to step in to assist here. Israel Folau will again be attacking from the wing, but how much time he actually spends on the flank will be interesting. He was almost a non factor last week, so he will be desperate to make an impact. Up front, there simply has to be some better go forward from the pack, who continually took the ball behind the gain line last week, and more often than not stayed there. Taking the ball straight from the halfback, and looking for space in behind the ruck instead of outside the flyhalf, must be on the cards this week. The Wallabies cannot go wide without working through the middle first.

Rugby Championship Best Bet

The Argentinians ($1.78) are deserved favourites for this one, but there is an air of desperation in the Australian ($2.05) team that cannot be ignored. Another loss could potentially see them slip another place in the world rankings, to a disastrous 8th, so if ever there was motivation to turn things around, surely this is it. $2.05 for an Australian upset in Salta looks like the best bet of the week.

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Rugby Championship Week 5 Preview
South Africa vs Australia
1:05am Sunday 30 September 2018
Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium

It has felt like a long two weeks since the Wallabies’ meek capitulation to Argentina on the Gold Coast, a fortnight filled with controversies and post mortems. Thankfully, the chance to atone has arrived, although an away game to the South Africans is a daunting way to try to get your confidence back. There has been plenty of soul searching in Australian rugby of late, with question marks over everyone from top to bottom. Michael Cheika appears to be safe until the World Cup, quite possibly because there don’t appear to be any serious options, but it is fair to say the Australian public is at the end of its tether with this team. A drop to seventh in the world rankings, while unacceptable, does reflect the position of the game in this country in comparison to others, but the Wallabies’ job has always been to punch above their weight against countries who see rugby as their number one football code. The disgraceful altercation after the match on the Gold Coast was the manifestation of the frustration fans are feeling right now, and Cheika must find a way to turn that around this year.

Currently sitting at the bottom of the Rugby Championship ladder, the Wallabies have 2 games left to salvage something from a disastrous season. They haven’t tasted victory in South Africa since 2012, though least year’s spirited draw showed that there is no reason to be intimated by the venue. The Springboks, for their part, are coming off a magnificent victory over the All Blacks in New Zealand, and will be brimming with confidence after their inspiring display. The Wallabies have managed to hustle the Kiwis in small doses over the past 18 months, but the South Africans were able to maintain the intensity for the entire 80 minutes, and held on for a deserved triumph. Their attack was electrifying at time, their defence resolute, with few obvious weaknesses for the Australians to target.

The form line of the Aussies could not be more different. Despite a couple of moments of brilliance against the Argentines, their performance was muddling in the most part. The lineout was woeful, ball handling embarrassing, and composure under pressure was nowhere to be seen when the game was there to be won. Somehow, it feels like this team is going backwards, showing a lower level of skill to what we saw even a year ago. Traditional positional play has given way to players popping up all over the field, performing multiple roles, but the result is a level of confusion and uncertainty that taints everything they do. The approach isn’t likely to change in the short time, though, so the goal must be to simply improve each outing between now and the World Cup. Wallaby fans, at this point in time, will take that as a win.

Cheika has made a number of key changes to the Wallabies’ lineup, most notably the return of captain Michael Hooper from injury. His backrow partner Lukhan Tui is on a self-imposed exile, so Ned Hanigan wins the vacant blindside flanker spot, most probably due to his ability in the lineout. Adam Coleman also returns the starting team after the birth of his child, but the most notable change in the pack is the promotion of Taniela Tupou for his first test start. The Tongan Thor didn’t have the happiest night against Argentina, but he was outstanding the week before against the Springboks, and he has earnt this shot at tight head. If he commits himself well at scrum time, and makes an impact around the field, he could cement the spot for a very long time.

The backline is unchanged from a fortnight ago, meaning Kurtley Beale will again steer the ship from flyhalf with Matt Toomua outside him and Bernard Foley on the bench. Israel Folau’s last performance on the wing was outstanding, save for one play in the 82^nd minute, so he stays on the flank with Dane Haylett-Petty at fullback.

The Springboks have been forced into a number of changes, most notably the loss of number 8 Warren Whiteley to a groin injury. A brand new centre combination was also required, with Andre Esterhuizen and Jesse Kriel combining in a new look midfield. Up front, Tendai Mtawarira returns at loose head to resume hostilities between the Beast and the Thor. That battle should be immense.

After the disappointment of a fortnight ago, the Wallabies simply must find some improvement against this strong Springboks side. The set piece is under huge pressure, particularly the lineout, and all eyes will be on Tatafu Polota-Nau when he steps up for his first throw. Three genuine targets, plus Hooper, should create enough variety for the hooker to hit, provided he can keep them straight. Out wide, Beale’s penchant for crabbing sideways has confused his teammates for two games in a row, so either he needs to straighten his running, or they need to offer him some straight running options. Toomua has looked solid since his return from England, and he needs to get into first receiver on multiple occasions to relive some pressure from Beale. Folau will again be given a licence to roam, something he made the most of against Argentina, but he needs to offer himself as a finisher as well as a ball carrier. Too often he is being asked to take crash balls in midfield, when his great strength is sitting on the end of the backline and finding the tryline. Marika Koroibete loves playing the South Africans, so expect him to find some work as well, while Haylett-Petty and Folau have a huge advantage in the air over the African back three, so we should see some high contestable kicks in the Springboks’ 22. There will be opportunities for the Wallabies throughout this game, only time will tell if they are good enough to take them.

Rugby Championship Best Bet

The South Africans are deserved favourites for this one, given recent form and the huge advantage that playing at home gets you in the Rugby Championship. 8.5 points start for the Aussies doesn’t feel like quite enough here, so South Africa minus the handicap at $1.94 is our best bet of the week.

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Rugby Championship Week 4 Preview
Australia v Argentina
8pm Saturday 15 September 2018
CBUS Stadium, Gold Coast

Rugby returns to the Gold Coast this week, and hopefully the sunshine state lives up to its reputation this week after the showers that bathed Brisbane last week. The Wallabies finally managed to snare a win in the Rugby Championship with their victory over South Africa in Brisbane, but they still sit at the bottom of the table as it stands. Their opponent this week, the Argentinians, also have one win from their three outings, but their superior points differential has left the Australians languishing in 4th place. One of the teams will jump ahead this week, though, as they meet at Robina in a match far more interesting than this clash has traditionally been. The form of the Pumas, in beating South Africa and challenging the All Blacks last week, should have the Wallabies on high alert for this one.

While Michael Cheika will be satisfied with the win last week, there are plenty of areas for improvement, as we are accustomed to with this team. The shift of Kurtley Beale to flyhalf, with Matt Toomua outside him and Bernard Foley on the bench, was a mixed bag, as Beale showed flashes of brilliance interspersed with basic errors. Toomua did what he was brought in to do, straightening the attack and providing a reliable boot. The Wallabies plans were thrown into disarray with the late withdrawals of David Pocock, Israel Folau and Adam Coleman, so they can be given some latitude for a slightly clumsy performance. Izack Rodda made the most of his late call up, performing strongly in the lineout, but it was the performance of his Reds teammate Taniela Tupou that had most tongues wagging. The young prop held strong in the scrum under immense pressure, and his troublesome hamstring came through ok. He must be relishing the thought of taking on the Argentinian scrum this weekend.

For their part, the Pumas managed to inflict some wounds on the All Blacks that the Wallabies just couldn’t. Nicolas Sanchez was instrumental at flyhalf, and in some ways demonstrated exactly what Australia has been missing for the last 5 years. His ability to scythe through the line is what Cheika is hoping Beale will be able to provide that Foley rarely has. While the Argentine scrum may not be what it used to be, their work under Mario Ledesma, the Wallabies’ long time scrum mentor, should not be underestimated, and they will be targeting this area for improvement on Saturday night.

Crucial to that targeting will be a couple of key changes Ledesma has made to his pack. Santiago Medrano comes in at tight head, which shifts Nahuel Tetaz Chapparro to the loose head side, while Pablo Matera returns at blind side to replace the injured Tomas Lezana. There is only one change in the backline, with Gonzalo Bertranou called in at halfback, where his combination with the dangerous Sanchez will be crucial. The back three will again be a danger the Wallabies will have to nullify, putting pressure on the kicking games of the Australian playmakers.

Meanwhile, Cheika has pulled another selection shock, finally listening to the hordes that have been determined that Folau’s best position is on the wing. Dane Haylett-Petty has retained the fullback spot, meaning Folau returns to the position he started his international career in. It will be interesting to see exactly how this plays out, but you can be certain that at one stage or another we will see a cross kick to the corner for Israel to contest, and you’d have to think he will be unbeatable in those situations. Beale and Toomua stay in their new positions, as do Rory Arnold and Izack Rodda after they came in last week. David Pocock returns from injury at number 8, forcing Pete Samu back onto the bench. There must have been a temptation to elevate Tupou to the starting XV, but he will again look to make an impact off the bench.

The Wallabies are in a difficult position in this match up. Win, and they will have done what everybody expected, but struggle, and they will provide even more fodder for the critics. Of course they have to win, but more than that, they need to win well. They need to show some improvement, across the park. Some fluency in attack from their halves is a must, and another week training together will be invaluable. The new look back three will have plenty of eyes in it, and Folau needs to proactively look to put himself in space. The set piece needs to continue its improvement, and the pack needs to lick up its work around the ground. Lukhan Tui is still not 100% convincing in the number 6, and he needs to show a little more dynamism with ball in hand, and in his repeat efforts. Mostly, the crowd on the Gold Coast will want to be entertained. Another grinding win will not be enough.

Best Bets

There is value to be found in the markets for this clash. The Pumas look a good price at $1.92 with 10.5 points start, particularly given how close they ran the All Blacks. The return of Folau to the wing, though, is sure to attract some interest. $1.80 for Izzy to find the line at any time is out best bet of the week.

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