Manly Sea Eagles vs Parramatta Eels

The Sea Eagles are red-hot, riding a three-match winning streak after head coach Anthony Seibold was shown the door at the end of a dire March.

They most recently put the Cowboys to the sword 38-6, moving up to sixth on the ladder.

Parramatta also come into this off a big win, having stunned the Bulldogs 38-20 last Sunday to snap a three-game losing streak.

Leg 1 – Over 53.5 Points

Manly, under fill-in coach Kieran Foran, have been playing with zero expectation and it’s worked a treat.

But returning home brings pressure, and without Tom Trbojevic, backing them to keep winning is a risk. The safer angle is the total.

Manly have scored 28+ in their last three, while five of Parramatta’s seven games this season have gone over this number, with the other two falling just short.

Leg 2 – Lehi Hopoate to Score

Hopoate is in a rich vein of form, scoring five tries in his last three matches, including a double last week against North Queensland.

The Eels are vulnerable on the edges, which suits Hopoate perfectly. Expect him to get his chances again here.

Leg 3 – Reuben Garrick to Score

Garrick has a strong record against Parramatta, with 13 tries from 14 games.

With Trbojevic out, Garrick shifts into the centres and should see more ball than usual.

He was held scoreless last week, but had a double the week prior and also scored against the Dolphins in Round 5.

Same Game Multi

Over 53.5 / Hopoate to Score / Garrick to Score = $4.90

Value Bet – Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $3.25

If you’re taking a stance on the result, Manly are the side to lean towards.

Outside of last week, Parramatta have struggled, conceding over 35 points per game and sitting near the bottom of the ladder.

The last six meetings have gone the way of the home side, but don’t expect a blowout. Trbojevic’s absence should keep this tighter than expected.

Brisbane Broncos vs Canterbury Bulldogs

The story heading into this fixture is Brisbane’s injury list, which includes Reece Walsh, Payne Haas, Corey Jensen and Pat Carrigan.

Despite their forward pack looking thin, the Broncos have been hanging on, with four wins from seven following a gritty one-point victory over the Tigers last week.

The Bulldogs have a few injuries of their own, but their bigger issue is consistency. A brilliant win over the Panthers two weeks ago was followed by a poor loss to the Eels last round.

Leg 1 – Broncos +3.5

Brisbane have had Canterbury’s number in recent years, winning seven of their last eight meetings.

The Broncos tend to respond well to adversity, and with a strong home crowd behind them, they should be competitive here.

With Adam Reynolds, Ezra Mam and Kotoni Staggs leading the way, expect them to at least keep this close.

Leg 2 – Jacob Preston to Score

Preston has an excellent strike rate at Suncorp Stadium, scoring five tries in five games.

The Bulldogs second-rower has also been strong in 2026, crossing three times in six matches.

He’ll be running at a makeshift Brisbane middle, which should create opportunities. With five line breaks already this season, he only needs one to convert.

Leg 3 – Home Team Over 21.5

The Broncos have scored 22+ points against the Bulldogs in six of their last eight meetings, including both games last season.

They’ve hit that mark four times already this year, and while Canterbury are typically strong defensively, they’ve shown cracks recently.

The Eels put 38 on them last week, the Rabbitohs 32 in Round 5, and even the Knights managed 24 last month.

Same Game Multi

Broncos +3.5 / Preston to Score / Home Team Over 21.5 = $5.60

Value Bet – Connor Tracey to Score @ $2.87

Tracey has a strong record against Brisbane, scoring seven tries in six games.

He’s also in great form this season, leading the competition in kick return metres at 219 per game.

With his ability to break the line and get involved, he looks a strong chance to cross again.

Wests Tigers vs Canberra Raiders

Wests have had an uncharacteristically strong start to the season, winning four of their six matches to sit third on the ladder. They come into this clash off the back of a one-point loss to the Broncos last week, despite dominating most metrics.

The Raiders have had a rockier start, losing four straight between Rounds 2 and 5. Wins over the Rabbitohs and Storm in the past two weeks have got things back on track.

Leg 1 – Raiders to Win

Canberra are priced as underdogs here, but there’s good reason to believe they can continue their momentum.

The Raiders have won their last three at Leichhardt Oval and 10 of their last 11 overall against the Tigers. Benji Marshall’s side simply aren’t used to playing as favourites, which makes them hard to trust in this spot.

Throw in a reshuffled backline for Wests and some concerns around their ability to finish against the Broncos, and Canberra at the price looks the play.

Leg 2 – Each Team Under 30.5 Points

This shapes as a bit of a grind.

Four of the last six meetings between these sides have seen neither team crack 30 points, including the last two. This season, the Tigers have passed 30 just three times, while Canberra have done so once.

With Hudson Young suspended and Josh Papalii out, it’s hard to see this turning into a high-scoring game.

Leg 3 – Jahream Bula to Score

Bula has had no trouble finding the line in 2026, scoring in each of the last four rounds.

He’s especially dangerous at Leichhardt, with seven tries in his last eight games at the ground.

With the workrate he’s showing, he should get his chances again here.

Same Game Multi

Raiders to Win / Each Team Under 30.5 Points / Bula to Score = $10.50

Value Bet – Noah Martin to Score @ $4.00

Those chasing value could look to Noah Martin making an impact here.

The second-rower comes into the starting side for the suspended Young and should get more opportunity, particularly running at the Tigers’ left-edge defence, which has been their weakest point.

Martin scored a double on debut in Round 1. He hasn’t crossed since, but with increased minutes, this is a good chance to bounce back.

Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights

Newcastle picked up four wins from their first five matches and were flying until coming crashing back to earth in a 42-22 loss to the Tigers last week.

For Sydney, it’s a different story. After two heavy losses in their opening three games, they’ve now strung together back-to-back wins and come in as strong favourites.

Leg 1 – Knights +11.5

It’s less than a month since the Roosters lost by 34 to the Panthers, and just six weeks since they conceded 42 to the Warriors.

While they’ve found form with wins over the Sea Eagles and Sharks, it’s still tough to trust them laying 11.5 against a Knights side that already has four wins in 2026.

This head-to-head is typically tight, with the Roosters winning the last three by four points or less. Expect that trend to continue.

Leg 2 – Under 53.5

A few recent blowouts have pushed this total high, but history suggests otherwise.

The last three meetings have produced totals of 20, 42 and 34, while both teams have only cracked 30+ twice this season.

This shapes as a lower-scoring contest.

Leg 3 – Dominic Young to Score

Young has been prolific, scoring nine tries in his first six games and sitting near the top of the try-scoring leaderboard.

Even in losses he finds a way, crossing last week against the Tigers.

With Dylan Brown back, expect plenty of attacking kicks — a perfect setup for Young.

Same Game Multi

Knights +11.5 / Under 53.5 / Young to Score = $5.40

Value Bet – Daly Cherry-Evans to Score @ $3.20

Cherry-Evans will look to test Dylan Brown early, particularly around the ruck.

He scored twice against the Sharks last week and shapes as a good chance again against a Knights defence that looked shaky against the Tigers.

Dolphins vs Penrith Panthers

This time last week, the Panthers were 5-0 with each of their wins coming by 20 or more points.

The Bulldogs stunned them in Round 6, however, outmuscling them en route to a 32-16 victory.

Up against a Dolphins side that have suffered back-to-back heavy losses, can Penrith make amends for their recent slip-up?

Leg 1 – Panthers 1-12

All the money is heading towards a big Panthers win in this clash, but there’s reason to believe this will be a tighter affair than many are predicting.

The Dolphins have historically punched above their weight in this fixture, winning their last meeting in 2025 and losing by 1-12 in the two prior. They’ll be relaxed on Friday, given few expect them to win.

Darwin also isn’t the easiest trip, which will have disrupted the Panthers’ preparation this week.

Leg 2 – Under 52.5 Points

Two of the three past meetings between these sides have fallen under 52.5, with the other only exceeding it by 1.5 points.

The Dolphins have struggled for firepower in recent weeks, scoring 18 and 12 respectively, while the Panthers managed just 16 last week.

Combine that with travel and unfamiliar conditions, and it’d be no surprise to see this one go under.

Leg 3 – Thomas Jenkins to Score

If you don’t have Jenkins in your NRL multi in 2026, what are you doing?

The man has 14 tries in six games, with no fewer than two in each match this season. He bagged another brace last week, even in defeat.

Given this shapes as a lower-scoring game, the 2+ market carries more risk, but backing him to cross at some stage still makes plenty of sense.

Same Game Multi

Panthers 1-12 / Under 52.5 Points / Jenkins to Score = $8.00

Value Bet – Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2+ Tries @ $5.00

One player who could bag a double is Tabuai-Fidow, who did just that last week against Manly.

The Dolphins fullback has six tries in three matches against the Panthers, including a hat-trick in their most recent clash and a brace the game before that.

His raw pace means any gap behind Penrith’s defensive line is a scoring chance, and he thrives in broken play late — exactly how this game could open up.

North Queensland Cowboys vs Manly Sea Eagles

After rough starts to their seasons, both clubs have turned things around with strong winning runs.

North Queensland have won four straight, with their latest victory a thriller against the Broncos that lifted them into the top four.

Manly looked in trouble heading into April, but have responded with a big win over the Dolphins followed by a gritty result against the Dragons last week.

Leg 1 – Cowboys 1-12

Both sides bring momentum, but the Cowboys should edge this one. They are undefeated at home this season, while this is Manly’s third straight road game.

North Queensland’s forward pack, led by Jason Taumalolo, Coen Hess and Reuben Cotter, has been outstanding and should prove the difference.

The Cowboys landed 1-12 for us last week and shape as a strong play again here.

Leg 2 – Over 52.5 Points

This sets up as a free-flowing contest, with both teams scoring heavily in recent weeks.

Manly have posted 52 and 28 in their last two games, while the Cowboys have scored 30, 28, 32 and 35 during their winning streak.

Neither defence has been particularly strong, with Manly conceding 18+ in every game this season and the Cowboys doing so four times.

Leg 3 – Heilum Luki to Score

Luki scored the match-winner against the Broncos and also crossed in their win over the Storm.

He continues to develop as a key attacking option on the right edge, and with confidence high, looks a strong chance to score again.

Same Game Multi

Cowboys 1-12 / Over 52.5 Points / Luki to Score = $12.00

Value Bet – Tom Trbojevic First Tryscorer @ $9.50

Trbojevic continues to find the line, scoring in every game this season.

He has an excellent knack of impacting games early, crossing first in three of Manly’s five matches in 2026.

With five tries inside the opening quarter already this season, he’s a strong chance to strike early again.

Parramatta Eels vs Gold Coast Titans

Neither team comes into Round 6 in great form, with just three wins between them from 10 matches played.

Parramatta coughed up a lead to lose to the Tigers in golden point last round, while the Titans also faded late in a 26-12 loss to the Broncos.

Despite their patchy form, both sides will view this as a must-win if they are to avoid a wooden spoon battle.

Leg 1 – Eels to Win

The Eels should come away with the two points here. They have dominated this matchup, winning 10 of their last 12 against the Titans, including a 36-20 win the last time they met.

They are carrying injuries, but the forward pack remains solid and Mitchell Moses is steering things around.

The Titans’ only win this season came against the struggling Dragons, so even a scratchy Parramatta performance could be enough.

Leg 2 – Under 51.5 Points

Parramatta are dealing with new backline combinations, with Ronald Volkman returning and Araz Nanva making his debut.

New combinations take time to click, so a high-scoring performance looks unlikely.

The Titans have also struggled to post big totals, cracking 25 points just once this season and being held under 20 twice.

This shapes as a tight, low-scoring contest.

Leg 3 – Josh Addo-Carr to Score

Addo-Carr remains Parramatta’s biggest scoring threat.

He has five tries this season, including a hat-trick against Newcastle, and has also scored against St George Illawarra and Penrith.

He thrives at CommBank Stadium, with eight tries from his last four games there.

Against a Titans edge defence that has looked vulnerable, he should get his chances again.

Same Game Multi

Eels to Win / Under 51.5 Points / Addo-Carr to Score = $5.20

Value Bet – Keano Kini to Score @ $2.87

Even in defeat, the Titans should generate some chances, and Kini is one of their key threats.

The fullback is yet to score in 2026 but looked dangerous against the Broncos last week.

He should see plenty of ball and opportunities against a Parramatta defence still finding cohesion.

Brisbane Broncos vs North Queensland Cowboys

Both teams come into this clash having won three straight after dropping their opening two matches of the season.

The Broncos ground out a gritty win over the Titans last week, while the Cowboys produced a dominant 32-0 shutout of the Dragons.

The big story here is Brisbane’s injury list, with much of their spine sidelined.

Leg 1 – Cowboys to Win

The Broncos have won their last six against North Queensland, but this looks like the spot where that streak ends.

Reece Walsh and Ben Hunt are out, while Adam Reynolds is battling a groin issue and is far from 100%.

With the Cowboys playing confident footy and Brisbane missing key pieces, there’s value in the upset.

Leg 2 – Under 48.5 Points

Four of Brisbane’s matches have gone under this line this season, with North Queensland seeing the same result in three games.

The Broncos’ attack is weakened, but their defence has held firm, conceding no more than 14 points since Round 2.

Expect a tight, low-scoring contest.

Leg 3 – Kotoni Staggs to Score

Staggs has an outstanding record against the Cowboys, scoring 11 tries in his last 12 games against them.

He also delivered for us recently with a double against the Dolphins, returning $5.50.

With five tries already this season, he remains a constant threat even if Brisbane are under pressure.

Same Game Multi

Cowboys to Win / Under 48.5 Points / Staggs to Score = $11.00

Value Bet – Cowboys 1-12 @ $3.40

Brisbane have won eight straight against Queensland sides and six in a row against the Cowboys, so a blowout still feels unlikely.

Even with the Broncos under-manned, this shapes as a tight contest.

North Queensland’s last clash against elite opposition in Melbourne was also a close one, and a similar margin looks likely here.

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Penrith Panthers

It’s been three weeks since the Bulldogs picked up a win, losing to the Knights and Rabbitohs over the past two rounds.

No such concern for Penrith, who are flying high at five wins from five with a competition-leading +150 points differential, having thrashed Melbourne 50-10 last week.

Leg 1 – Panthers -17.5

Canterbury are typically known for their stoic defence, but they’ve conceded 24 and 32 points over the last fortnight.

It’s hard to see that changing against the Panthers, who are averaging 38 points per game this season and have covered the -17.5 line in all five matches.

With captain Stephen Crichton sidelined, expect some defensive disorganisation and another wide margin here.

Leg 2 – Tom Jenkins to Score

Jenkins has been red-hot in 2026, bagging 12 tries across just five appearances.

That output is driven by Penrith’s ability to create overlaps through Dylan Edwards, Paul Alamoti and Jenkins.

With Marcelo Montoya looking vulnerable on the Bulldogs’ left edge, Jenkins should continue to get chances.

Leg 3 – Nathan Cleary to Score

Cleary hasn’t matched Jenkins’ try output this season, but remains a constant threat with ball in hand.

He scored last week against the Storm and also crossed in Round 2 against Cronulla.

Playing in his 200th NRL match, expect Cleary to be heavily involved and potentially rewarded on the scoreboard.

Same Game Multi

Panthers -17.5 / Jenkins to Score / Cleary to Score = $5.20

Value Bet – Bronson Xerri to Score @ $3.60

Xerri starts for the first time in 2026, filling in for the injured Crichton.

The 25-year-old has plenty of speed and will be running off Matt Burton and Lachlan Galvin in the centres.

While he’s scored just once this season, he has 32 career tries and is a strong finisher.

If the Bulldogs are to score, Xerri is as good a chance as any.

Cronulla Sharks vs New Zealand Warriors

New Zealand come into this clash with three wins from four, but their form couldn’t be more different to the mid-table Sharks.

Last round, Cronulla recorded their second win of the season in emphatic style, putting away the Raiders 34-22 in Canberra. The Warriors, on the other hand, were humbled by the Tigers 32-14 in front of a packed Go Media Stadium.

This is shaping as an early test of each team’s title credentials. Can the Warriors bounce back and prove they’re genuine contenders, or will Cronulla earn their first back-to-back wins of 2026?

Leg 1 – Warriors to Win

Expect a Warriors bounce back here. The Kiwis looked brilliant across the first three rounds, scoring 120 points and comfortably putting away the Roosters, Raiders and Knights.

Last week was a speed bump, but this group has been known to crack under pressure at times.

There’s none of that heading to Cronulla though, where the home side are firm favourites and expected to win easily.

That loss to the Tigers should put a fire in the Warriors’ belly, so we should see more of their early season form in this clash.

Leg 2 – Over 47.5 Points

If the Warriors turn up on Sunday as expected, they’ll likely score the bulk of the 47.5 points required to clear this line.

But the Kiwis had some defensive issues against the Tigers, and the Sharks have scored 30+ points twice already this season, so don’t be surprised if both teams cross for multiple tries.

Leg 3 – Leka Halasima to Score

Halasima has scored in every Warriors win so far this season, bagging four tries across the opening month of the competition.

The big forward looks hungry for the ball in 2026. With his leg drive, reach and strong aerial ability, he’s a threat to score any time New Zealand get inside the Sharks’ 20.

It also helps that Tanner Boyd’s kicking game and Luke Metcalf’s distribution favour the left side, meaning Halasima gets more opportunities than you’d usually expect for a second rower.

Same Game Multi

Warriors to Win / Over 47.5 Points / Halasima to Score = $6.75

Value Bet – Warriors to Win Both Halves @ $5.20

When the Warriors are on, they’re on, so backing them to win both halves at this price makes sense.

In each of their three wins this year they led at half-time, and they take on a team that has started slow and finished poorly this season.

The Sharks fell behind early against the Raiders before coming back to win, and their energy drop against the Dolphins the week before was alarming, conceding 28 unanswered points in the final 25 minutes.