For the first time since 2019, the Penrith Panthers are sitting at home on Grand Final day. So it will be the Melbourne Storm (2nd) taking on the Brisbane Broncos (4th) in a rematch of the 2006 decider. That was the last time the Broncos won a GF (Brisbane won 15-8). For the Storm, they’re going for the first title since 2020. Here’s a look at the Grand Final best bets.

Melbourne Storm (2nd) vs Brisbane Broncos (4th)

The Storm head into the 2025 NRL decider as the favourites after back-to-back finals wins over the Sharks and Bulldogs at AAMI Park. The 22-14 win over the Sharks last week showed some positive signs for the Storm. Jahrome Hughes made a successful return from a wrist injury and scored one of the great solo tries in the 15th minute. Ryan Papenhuyzen was also back in the lineup after concussion issues and calf injuries this season. He also found the line, thanks to a beautiful kick by Cam Munster. With the spine of Grant, Munster and Hughes back on the park, the Storm looked dangerous against the Sharks.

Coming into the 2025 Grand Final, the hurt of the 2024 loss against the mighty Panthers should be a good motivator and starting well should be the key. They have won the first half in 6 of their last 8 games. The lineup is also looking settled with no changes from the team that beat the Sharks. Wishart off the bench will be a key matchup against Mam, especially in the late stages with tired forwards.

In the try scoring markets, Will Warbrick has been a try-scoring machine since returning to the side, scoring in 3 straight. That also includes a 60th min try against Brisbane in the last round of the season. Ryan Papenhuyzen comes off another try in the finals, making it 8 times in 10 attempts that he has scored a finals try when the Storm are betting favourites. Eli Katoa didn’t find the line last week but still has 3 tries in 4 games, should be hard to stop if he gets inside the 10 or in the air.

The Broncos ended the Panthers Grand Final streak with a electric comeback at Suncorp last week. Down 14-0 at the half, things weren’t looking good and the Broncos were sloppy in attack. But a Staggs try in the 47th min sparked them and 2 late tries were the key. Along with Adam Reynolds nailing a conversion in the last 4 mins. They come into the Grand Final as outsiders but I don’t think they’ll mind it. Michael “Madge” Maguire will have them ready for everything the Storm will throw at them.

They also get the services of Patty Carrigan back into the lock position after he missed last week with suspension. Ben Talty is the unlucky one to make way. Otherwise, the Broncos will go with a similar lineup as last week. They’ll have Hunt at five-eighth to start with then Mam will come off the bench, moving Hunt to hooker. That covers the injury to Billy Walters nicely.

Looking at the try scoring markets for the Broncos, there are some trends to note. On the wing, Josiah Karapani didn’t score last week but the Storm haven’t been great at defending wingers and he’s got 5 tries in his last 6 games. Staggs did score last week and is always tough to tackle. He’s scored in 5 of his last 6.

Craig Bellamy will have a plan to shut down the influence of Reece Walsh, but he has scored in 5 of his last 6 games, including a double against the Storm in Round 27. Shibasaki scored in the 1st final against the Raiders and has 4 tries in his last 5 games.

Stadium Record

In their last 10 games at Stadium Australia, the Melbourne Storm hold a 7-3 record. Brisbane hold a 2-3 record over its last 5 games at Stadium Australia.

Head to Head Record

The Storm have a 8-2 record in the last 10 games against the Brisbane Broncos.

Best Bet

While Melbourne has dominated the Broncos over the last decade, I can see this being a close Grand Final. The Broncos would have gained a lot more confidence after beating Penrith and will be desperate to end a 19 year premiership drought. So I think there’s merit in taking the Broncos at the underdog line as they have covered in both finals thus far. But I think going for a high scoring affair should be a good bet. Both sides have plenty of attacking weapons and the trends say this will be a high scoring affair. Over the last 9 finals at Stadium Australia, the Over is 7-2. In the clash between these two sides a month ago, the result was 44 pts (30-14) and Hughes was injured mid-way through that game. Plus Harry Grant didn’t play. Hopefully, no rain in Sydney should see a dry game as well.

Over 40.5 pts = $1.95

NRL Grand Final Same Game Multi – Storm v Broncos

Leg #1 – Broncos +6.5

In the first leg, I’m going with a safe bet – the Broncos to cover. In both finals, the margin has been 1 pt (Raiders) and 2 pts (Panthers), so they love a close final. Melbourne doesn’t have a great record of covering the line at Accor, going 0-4 ATS. So take the Broncos to keep the margin under a converted try.

Leg #2 – Will Warbrick Anytime Tryscorer

Warbrick is a matchup nightmare on the wing as one of the strongest wingers in the NRL. He’s coming off scoring a try in both finals wins for the Storm and Melbourne have gone away from the Coates kick in the air. So Warwick is getting more ball inside the 20 metres. His record against Brisbane is excellent too. He’s scored a total of 7 tries in his last 4 games.

Leg #3 – Josiah Karapani Anytime Tryscorer

Karapani comes off a try-less game against the Panthers but should have a better shot against Melbourne. He has scored 1+ tries in 4 of his last 5 games and found the line in the Broncos 30-14 win over Melbourne in Round 27. The Storm also gave up 2 tries to a winger against the Sharks last week.

Same Game Multi

Broncos +6.5 / Will Warbrick Anytime Tryscorer / Josiah Karapani Anytime Tryscorer = $7.00

Value Leg – Kotoni Staggs Anytime Tryscorer

Staggs offers some nice value to score. He’s got 5 tries in 6 of his last 6 games and scored a massive try when the Broncos needed it last week. Melbourne have also conceded a try to a centre in both finals, so that’s a good trend for Sunday’s Grand Final.

Broncos +6.5 / Will Warbrick Anytime Tryscorer / Josiah Karapani Anytime Tryscorer / Kotoni Staggs Anytime Tryscorer = $13.00

Clive Churchill Medalist

Who will take out the Clive Churchill medal? Here’s a look at some of the contenders for man of the match

Harry Grant: He missed the 2020 Grand Final win so he’ll be desperate for his first ever NRL Grand Final win. If he can grab a try out of dummy half, he should be a good bet to win it but I do prefer Munster.

Cameron Munster: A Clive Churchill medal would cap a great year from Munster after captaining the Maroons to an Origin series victory. He looked fresh last week and is a big game player. The loss of his father earlier this season should be a motivation factor for Cam too. Definitely in the running if the Storm win.

Reece Walsh: If the Broncos win this Grand Final, Walsh will be the key. He dominated the Storm back in Round 27 with 2 tries. But I have a feeling that Bellamy will shut him down this time.

Payne Haas: A massive game from Haas last week as he put the Broncos on his back in an 80-minute prop masterclass. That included 20 runs for 182 run metres and 82 post contact metres. Not to mention, he made 46 tackles as well. The Storm will try to tire him out as well and after such a big effort, it will be interesting to see how he backups on a shorter week compared to Melbourne. Forwards don’t usually win this medal so there are probably better options.

Jahrome Hughes: Back from injury last week and scored one of the great finals tries. His kicking game will be important and he’s one of the best running halfbacks in the game. If he scores a try, he should be in the running.

Adam Reynolds: Also returned from a hamstring injury and nailed a late game conversion to get the Broncos into the decider. If the Broncos win, he’ll be in the conversation but he’ll likely need to find a try.

Ryan Papenhuyzen: Back in 2020, a younger Papenhuyzen took home this medal and if he continues his try-scoring record in big finals, he offers massive value.

Best Bet: Cameron Munster = $7

Value Bet: Ryan Papenhuyzen = $13

A spot in the 2025 NRL Grand Final is on the line this weekend for the 4 teams remaining. The action kicks off in Melbourne on Friday night as the Storm look to make back to back Grand Finals. The Sharks will be looking to make the GF for the first time since their 2016 victory. Then on Sunday afternoon, it’s a rematch of the Broncos and Panthers 2023 GF.

Melbourne Storm (2nd) vs Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (5th)

The Storm earned a home final and week off with a gritty win over the Dogs in the 1st week of the finals. Without halfback Jahrome Hughes, big Nelson and Papi at fullback, Melbourne got the job done 26-18.

The good news for the Storm coming into this matchup against Cronulla – Hughes and Papenhuyzen are back in the lineup along with Shawn Blore. So that will see Wishart on the bench and the unlucky Jonah Pezet into the reserves. Grant Anderson can also count himself as unlucky, dropping to the reserves with Warwick back in the side. But we know that Bellamy likes to make late changes, so look out.

Looking at some trends, the Storm are almost unstoppable in finals at home after a break. They’ve won their last 11 in a row. Starting well will be a big key as they’ve won the 1st half in 7 straight games when they come off a 10+ day break. In the try scorer markets, Eliesa Katoa is massive value. He scored the 1st try last week and has scored in 3 straight games.

Papenhuyzen is a big performer in the finals, he’s scored 1 or more tries in his last 3 Preliminary Finals. Hughes also offers nice value to find the line, he’s scored in 3 of his last 4 home games. Warbrick is back on the wing for the Storm and got an intercept try last week. He has scored in 2 of 3 games since returning from a concussion.

The Sharks head to Melbourne with a lot of confidence after 2 big wins. They smashed the 1st placed Raiders last week in Canberra 32-12 and beat the Roosters 20-10 in the 1st week of the finals. Cronulla’s defence has been impressive in the finals, allowing 12 or fewer pts in both wins. That will be a key factor when they head to AAMI Park, since they lost 30-6 in Round 17.

Ronaldo Mulitalo continued his hot form with another try last week, he’s now scored 8 tries in his last 5 games. He also scored in the Sharks win over Melbourne in Round 11. Sione Katoa has scored in 2 of his last 5 games against the Storm. KL Iro comes off a try against the Raiders and also found the line in his last matchup against Melbourne back in Round 11.

In team news, the Sharks have lost Thomas Hazelton to a concussion but Oregon Kaufusi is a good replacement. Otherwise, the Sharks are looking settled and raring to go for this matchup.

Stadium Record

In their last 10 games at AAMI Park, the Melbourne Storm hold a 8-2 record. Cronulla has lost 4 of their last 5.

Head to Head Record

The Melbourne Storm have a 7-3 record in the last 10 games against the Cronulla Sharks.

Best Bet

I think the Sharks are in a good position to give the Storm a scare. Their defence has been impressive thus far in the finals as they’ve kept the Roosters and Raiders to low totals. The Storm are a similar attacking side. Melbourne also has had a few injury concerns with no Hughes and Papen, so they might be a bit underdone. Take the Sharks to cover in a close one.

Cronulla Sharks +8.5 = $1.90

NRL Same Game Multi – Storm v Sharks

Leg #1 – Sharks +8.5

As mentioned, I think the Sharks have the side to rattle the Storm and keep this matchup under an 8.5 margin.

Leg #2 – Over 40.5 pts

I like the Over trend between these two sides in Melbourne. It has saluted in 6 of the last 7 meetings at this venue. The Sharks come off scoring 32 pts and the Storm’s first final went over this mark.

Leg #3 – Ronaldo Mulitalo Anytime Tryscorer

Ronaldo Mulitalo has scored in four of Cronulla’s last 5 and looks the best bet to find the tryline.

Same Game Multi

Sharks +8.5 / Over 40.5 pts / Ronaldo Mulitalo Anytime Tryscorer = $5.90

Value Leg – Eli Katoa Anytime Tryscorer

There isn’t a better backrower to pick up a try than Eli Katoa. He can score them on the ground or in the air. With 3 straight games of scoring a try, let’s hope he makes it 4.

Sharks +8.5 / Over 40.5 pts / Ronaldo Mulitalo Anytime Tryscorer / Eli Katoa Anytime Tryscorer = $15.00

Brisbane Broncos (4th) vs Penrith Panthers (7th)

After a wild 29-28 victory in Canberra, the Broncos got the week off to prepare for redemption of the 2023 Grand Final defeat against this Panthers side. In his first season as head coach, Michael Maguire has done a great job getting this talented Broncos side up and about every week. So he would love to deliver the Broncos first premiership win since 2006.

The team lineup is a bit of a mixed bag. They get the experience of Adam Reynolds back in the side at halfback and Ezra Mam is back in the lineup, coming off the bench. So Ben Hunt will start at five-eighth (at this stage). However, QLD enforcer Patrick Carrigan is out with suspension and that’s a big blow for their forward pack as they’re going with Smoothy at lock. Billy Walters has also done his ACL and he’s been massive for Brisbane this year.

But it really comes down to one man – Reece Walsh. If he plays well, the Broncos will likely win this clash. He was electric against the Raiders after his sin-bin. He’s also scored 1 or more tries in 5 straight games, making him a good play in the anytime tryscorer markets. Karapani has also scored in 5 straight games. Kotonit Staggs has 5 tries in his last 5 games.

Here we go again. The Panthers are heading towards a 6th straight Grand Final appearance with just the Broncos in their way at Suncorp. Credit has to go to Penrith as they’ve done it the hard way this year. In the 1st week of the finals, they travelled to NZ and took down the Warriors 24-8. Then in the semis, they crushed the Doggies hopes with a massive first-half, winning 46-26 in the end.

Paul Alamoti scored a hat-trick in the win over the Dogs and now has a 6-1 record of scoring a try in his last 7 games. Brian To’o started things off last week with a try and finished with a double. He’s now scored in 9 of his last 10 finals games and I can see him finding the line against Brisbane. Isaiah Papali’i has been a beast in the finals, scoring in both games and offers massive value to make it 3 straight. Cleary also has a good record of scoring a try at Suncorp.

In team news, the Panthers are very settled. They just have an issue with Liam Martin’s ribs. But he’s not missing a final over that. In the reserves, Tommy Jenkins and Eisenhuth could be late ins. But otherwise, the Panthers will likely go with the same 17.

Stadium Record

Brisbane hold a 4-1 record over its last 5 games. In their last 10 games at Suncorp, the Penrith hold a 8-2 record.

Head to Head Record

The Panthers have a 9-1 record in the last 10 games.

Best Bet

It is hard to back against a Panthers victory. They are now 14-0 in finals games and I think the Broncos are a bit unsettled. There’s no Carrigan or Walters and Reynolds will be underdone. However, I think the Sunday afternoon slot will provide an entertaining and high scoring final. The Panthers were up 36-8 at half-time last week and scored 32 pts against Brisbane in the last meeting at Suncorp. Brisbane scored 29 pts against the Raiders in Canberra and will score pts if Walsh plays well.

Over 48.5 pts = $1.90

NRL Same Game Multi – Broncos v Panthers

Leg #1 – Panthers +3.5

This is a safe bet if the Broncos come to play and give the Panthers a scare. Penrith have covered in 14 straight finals and I think they make it 15.

Leg #2 – Brian To’o Anytime Tryscorer

In 9 of his last 10 finals, Brian To’o has scored a try. He comes off a double last week and should be hard to stop.

Leg #3 – Reece Walsh Anytime Tryscorer

Walsh is looking to make it 6 straight games with a try and I think he can get the job done.

Same Game Multi

Panthers +3.5 / Brian To’o Anytime Tryscorer / Reece Walsh Anytime Tryscorer = $6.00

Value Leg – Nathan Cleary Anytime Tryscorer

Cleary has an excellent record at Suncorp against Brisbane, scoring in 4 of his last 5. The Panthers halfback offers some nice value for this SGM.

Panthers +3.5 / Brian To’o Anytime Tryscorer / Reece Walsh Anytime Tryscorer / Nathan Cleary Anytime Tryscorer= $17.00

After an epic 1st week of finals, the semi finals figure to be just as good. First up, we have the Raiders looking to rebound against the Sharks. Then, the Panthers and Bulldogs go to battle on Sunday afternoon footy.

Canberra Raiders (1st) vs Cronulla Sharks (5th)

After one of the greatest finals in recent NRL history, the Raiders will have to dust themselves off and get back on track against the Sharks at GIO Stadium. Canberra went down against the Broncos last week, 29-28. They were up 28-12 with around 25 minutes to go, so they need to improve their finishing if that also happens against the Sharks.

The Raiders were sloppy with the ball, finishing with a 72% completion rate and made 67 missed tackles. So there are a lot of areas for the Raiders to improve on going into this semi-final. Luckily, they don’t have any major injuries after the loss and will likely go with the same 17.

In the player props, Ethan Strange is on fire. He’s scored a try in 4 straight games, and that includes a beauty last week against the Broncos. Weekes also had a great game against Brisbane, scoring twice and has 3 in his last 3 games.

The Sharks outlasted the Roosters 20-10 last week and head to Canberra with a lot of confidence. Ronaldo Mulitalo bagged a double for the home side and Toby Rudolf capped off the win with a rare try with 5 minutes to go.

In the 20-10 win, the Sharks had a 79% completion rate and had 11 errors compared to 16 by the Roosters. But their tackling needs some improvement after 41 missed tackles. They will also need to overturn a poor record in Canberra, losing 5 of their last 6.

After 2 tries, Mulitalo is a great look in the anytime tryscorer markets. He’s now scored 7 tries in his last 4 games. For a bit more value, Sione Katoa enjoys playing against Canberra, scoring in 4 of his last 5 against them.

Stadium Record

Canberra are 8-2 in their last 10 at Canberra Stadium. Cronulla are 1-4 in their last 5.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Raiders are 7-3. The last met in Round 5 with the Raiders just wining 24-20.

Best Bet

I think the Raiders will find it tough after last week. They had to play Overtime and now play on a 6 day break. If they find themselves in-front in the 2nd half, it’s hard to trust them after last week’s failure. The Sharks have a settled team after last week’s win over the Roosters and will love the underdog tag. So I think this should be a low scoring affair in a final. The Sharks gave up just 10 pts last week and have a good record against the Under. Canberra should be better defensively and night conditions should be tougher to score.

Under 44.5 pts = $1.85

NRL Same Game Multi – Raiders v Sharks

Leg #1 – Sharks +8.5

I can see this being a close final. The last meeting was a 4 pt margin and as mentioned, the Raiders may struggle on a short week and playing in a brutal final. So I think the Sharks can cover for a bit of a safe play at +8.5 pts.

Leg #2 – Under 44.5 pts

I think scoring will be tough in night conditions in Canberra. The Under also has a 4-0 record when the Sharks are playing away finals.

Leg #3 – Ronaldo Mulitalo Anytime Tryscorer

Mulitalo is on fire and should be hard to stop if he gets near the line. He’s crossed the line 7 times in his last 4 games.

Same Game Multi

Sharks +8.5 / Under 44.5 pts / Ronaldo Mulitalo Anytime Tryscorer = $6.75

Value Leg – Ethan Strange Anytime Tryscorer

Coming off 4 straight games with a try, it’s hard to back against one of the Raiders best attacking threats to get over the line and make it 5 straight.

Sharks +8.5 / Under 44.5 pts / Ronaldo Mulitalo Anytime Tryscorer / Ethan Strange Anytime Tryscorer = $26.00

Canterbury Bulldogs (3rd) vs Penrith Panthers (7th)

The Doggies are coming off a brutal final in Melbourne. Not only did they lose 26-18 but they’ve lost some key players for this semi. Stephen Crichton has a foot injury, Viliame Kikau fractured his eye socket and Enari Tuala fractured his tibia. Just brutal.

So they’ve moved Burton to the centres, Sexton into halfback to partner Galvin. With so much team movement, it’s hard to see their attack improving against a very strong Panthers side. Sexton was good when he came on against the Storm last week but Galvin struggled, which has been the story since moving to the Dogs.

In the tryscoring markets, I do like the look of Kiraz. He scored against the Storm last week and is always hard to stop near the line. Matt Burton also found the line last game and would love to get a try against his former side. It also helps that he’ll play in the centres.

The Panthers travelled to Mount Smart last week and got the job done fairly easily, winning 24-8 against the Warriors. It keeps their hopes of a 5th straight Grand Final win alive and I wouldn’t back against them.

Isaiah Papali’i, Brad Schneider, Casey McLean and Brian To’o all scored in the win over NZ. But their defence was impressive, conceding just 2pts in the 1st half and only 1 try for the entire final.

They’ve now won an incredible 13 straight finals since losing the 2020 GF. Starting fast is one of their keys as they’ve won the 1st half in 8 straight finals as well. Watch out for Brian To’o on the wing, he has an 8-1 record of scoring in a final when the Panthers are favoured.

They also love playing the Dogs, having won 8 of the last 10 games. The last clash was a non-contest as the Panthers rested all their starters so it’s really 9-1 since the Dogs last beat them in 2019.

Stadium Record

In their last 5, the Dogs are 2-3. Penrith are 7-3 in their last 10.

Head to Head Record

Since 2019, the Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Best Bet

It’s hard to see the Panthers going down with the Doggies suffering so many injury issues in their finals loss against the Storm. But I prefer to go the Under. It’s 7-1 when the Panthers are playing in a final and I think their defence will be far too strong for the Bulldogs. These two sides also played in a 8-6 clash back in Round 17.

Under 39.5 pts = $1.90

NRL Same Game Multi – Bulldogs v Panthers

Leg #1 – Panthers -3.5

If Penrith win, I think the margin will be over 3.5 pts. They have the wood over the Dogs and will be eager to make it 14 straight finals victories.

Leg #2 – Brian To’o Anytime Tryscorer

To’o has scored 3 tries in his last 3 games against the Dogs. He looms as the Panthers best bet to cross.

Leg #3 – Nathan Cleary 8+ Points

Cleary has scored over 8 points in 5 of his last 7 games and I don’t think he’ll give up the goalkicking this week after letting Edwards do the easy kicks last week.

Same Game Multi

Panthers -3.5 / Brian To’o Anytime Tryscorer / Nathan Cleary 8+ Points = $3.40

Value Leg – Jacob Kiraz Anytime Tryscorer

When the Dogs are an underdog, Kiraz has a 6-0 record of scoring a try. 

Panthers -3.5 / Brian To’o Anytime Tryscorer / Nathan Cleary 8+ Points / Jacob Kiraz Anytime Tryscorer = $11.00

The NRL Finals are here! We have 4 cracking matchups to watch this weekend and it all starts on Friday night with the Storm and Bulldogs facing off at AAMI Park.

Melbourne Storm (2nd) vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (3rd)

The Storm are sitting 2nd, but on a two-game skid after a 30–14 loss to the Broncos at Lang Park. They’re still a handful at AAMI Park (8–2 across their last 10 there and 9–3 at home this season) and the matchup history is on their side too—Melbourne are 9–1 in their past 10 against the Bulldogs. Form line is 3–2 over the last five, with the attack still humming (3rd for points scored, 2nd for tries) and a solid away split of 8–4 rounding out the profile.

Team news matters: Harry Grant (big in), Jack Howarth, Stefano Utoikamanu and Sualauvi Faalogo come in, while Jahrome Hughes (big out), Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Ryan Papenhuyzen are out. All up, it shapes like a get-right spot at home for a side that usually cashes in on territory and polish.

The Bulldogs head to AAMI Park sitting 3rd at 16–8, but the form line’s a bit patchy at 2–3 and they’re coming off an 18-point loss to the Sharks at Stadium Australia. The splits are solid (9–3 at home, 7–5 away), though AAMI hasn’t been kind recently with a 1–4 mark across their last five there. Still, there’s enough strike to make this interesting if they start clean and finish sets.

Team news gives them a boost with Blake Wilson, Harry Hayes, Jacob Kiraz, Jake Turpin, Kurtis Morrin and Toby Sexton coming in, while Bronson Xerri and Marcelo Montoya are out. If they can tidy up errors and win the middle early, the Dogs are live to cover and worth a look in anytime try-scorer multis.

Stadium Record

Melbourne are 8-2 in their last 10 games at AAMI Park. Canterbury are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Storm hold a 9-1 record.

Best Bet

The Under has a nice trend in this matchup, it’s 7-1 and also went Under in the recent clash at this venue. The Storm are going to miss Hughes and Papenhuyzen in attack, which limits their scoring ability. Meanwhile, the Dogs haven’t been a high scoring side for a while and adding Galvin hasn’t fixed it.

Under 37.5 pts = $1.85

NRL Same Game Multi – Storm v Bulldogs

Leg #1 – Storm WIN

Melbourne edged the Dogs 20–14 at this venue a few weeks ago and look stronger for this clash. The Storm have won each of their last 14 home games following a loss, while Canterbury has failed to cover in each of its last six away matches.

Leg #2 – Nick Meaney 6+ Points

Meaney kicked four goals against the Dogs in their last meeting and also crossed for a try last week. With the tee and his support play, he’s a strong chance to clear 6 points.

Leg #3 – Xavier Coates Anytime Tryscorer

Coates has scored in four of his last five games and has an excellent record against Canterbury, with 5 tries in his last 4 outings against them.

Leg #4 (Value) – Eli Katoa Anytime Tryscorer

Katoa scored in the Round 25 clash with the Dogs and crossed again last week against the Broncos. A threat in the air and running hard lines, he’s always in the frame to grab a try.

Storm WIN / Nick Meaney 6+ Points / Xavier Coates Anytime Tryscorer / Eli Katoa Anytime Tryscorer = $10.50

New Zealand Warriors (6th) vs Penrith Panthers (7th)

The Warriors head into this one 14–10 and sitting 6th, 7–5 both home and away, but on a two-game slide after that 27–26 gut-punch at Brookvale to the Sea Eagles. Recent form’s 2–3, but their big positive is ball control—they keep the error count low (17th for errors), which they’ll absolutely need against the Panthers, especially with the head-to-head trend a rough 1–9 across the last 10.

Team news gives them a bit of a lift: Bunty Afoa, Edward Kosi, Jackson Ford, Kalani Going and Wayde Egan come in, while Rocco Berry is out. If they complete high and kick smart, the Warriors can make this sticky and give themselves a chance to cover the line, even if the matchup history says they’ll need to be near perfect.

The Panthers come into this final sitting 7th, fresh off a Round 27 win over the Dragons by 20 (40–20). The splits are interesting—6–6 at home but a tidy 7-1-4 away—so the travel doesn’t bother them much. Recent form is a bit mixed at 2–3, but the matchup history is all Panthers: 9–1 across the last 10 vs the Warriors, and 6–4 in their last 10 at Mount Smart.

Team news is handy too with Brian To’o, Liam Martin, Luke Sommerton and Matt Eisenhuth named in, and Mitch Kenny out. If they control territory and finish sets like last week, Penrith should be right in the box seat again, plenty of reasons to like them head-to-head.

Stadium Record

New Zealand are 5-5 in their last 10 games at Go Media Stadium. Penrith are 6-4 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Panthers are 9-1 against the Warriors.

Best Bet

This should be another low scoring final. The Panthers have found their defensive edge and will be well rested for this finall too. They have an impressive record in the 1st week of the finals, going 4-0 against the Under. Since losing their halfback, the Warriors attack just hasn’t been the same.

Under 43.5 pts = $1.90

NRL Same Game Multi – Warriors v Panthers

Leg #1 – Paul Alamoti Anytime Tryscorer

Paul Alamoti has scored at least one try in each of his last five appearances. He grabbed 2 tries last week and also crossed in his last clash with New Zealand.

Leg #2 – Casey McLean Anytime Tryscorer

Casey McLean has been a regular on the scoreboard, scoring in six of his last seven games. That includes one against the Dragons last week and a double the week before against the Raiders.

Leg #3 – Penrith lead at HT

The Panthers have dominated early against the Warriors, winning the first half in each of their last nine meetings.

Leg #4 (Value) – Leka Halasima Anytime Tryscorer

Leka Halasima has scored in four of the Warriors’ last five home matches, including a double in his most recent home outing against the Eels.

Paul Alamoti Anytime Tryscorer / Casey McLean Anytime Tryscorer / Penrith lead at HT / Leka Halasima Anytime Tryscorer = $18.00

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (5th) vs Sydney Roosters (8th)

Cronulla roll into this Roosters clash sitting 5th, riding a three-game heater after smacking the Bulldogs 24–6 in Round 27. The form line’s strong (4–1 last five) and the home edge is real—10–2 this season at Sharks Stadium and 8–2 across their last 10 there—so even with a shakier away split (5–7), so they look comfy on their own deck.

Team news helps too with Nicho Hynes avoiding suspendion, Braydon Trindall and Briton Nikora back in. All signs point to a Sharks side in control: confident, stingy, and happy to grind the Roosters down through the middle before cashing in out wide.

The Roosters head to Shark Park sitting 8th at 13–11 and trending up—4–1 across their last five, riding a two-game streak, and fresh off a 36–6 thumping of Souths at Allianz. They’ve got points in them (5th for scoring, 4th for tries) and the away split is fine at 7–5, but errors are the headache—one of the league’s worst for cough-ups (3rd most). History’s handy too: 7–3 against Cronulla in the last 10.

Team news adds some depth with Makahesi Makatoa, Salesi Foketi and Sandon Smith named, no outs listed yet. If they keep the ball off the deck and finish sets, the Chooks are live to push the Sharks late and make a game of it.

Stadium Record

Cronulla are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Shark Park. Sydney are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Roosters are 7-3 against the Sharks.

Best Bet

The trend between these two sides has been high scoring affairs and I don’t see that slowing down in the finals. In the last 3 meetings, the Over is 3-0 so I’ll be backing it to go 4-0.

Over 46.5 pts = $1.85

NRL Same Game Multi – Sharks v Roosters

Leg #1 – Roosters WIN

The Roosters are dangerous with a lot of their key players back in the lineup and I think they get the job done at Shark Park. The Sharks have an awful 0-7 record in the 1st week of finals too.

Leg #2 – Mark Nawaqanitawase Anytime Tryscorer

Nawaqanitawase has 7 tries in his last 2 games — 3 against the Bunnies and 4 against Melbourne. He also crossed in the Round 12 clash with the Sharks.

Leg #3 – Daniel Tupou Anytime Tryscorer

Tupou has scored at least one try in eight of his last 9 games in Sydney, making him a reliable option again.

Leg #4 (Value) – KL Iro Anytime Tryscorer

Iro has been deadly at Sharks Stadium, scoring in seven of his last eight games there. A solid value pick to keep that trend going.

Roosters WIN / Mark Nawaqanitawase Anytime Tryscorer / Daniel Tupou Anytime Tryscorer / KL Iro Anytime Tryscorer = $12.00

Canberra Raiders (1st) vs Brisbane Broncos (4th)

Top-of-the-table Raiders (19–5) host the Broncos with serious cred: 11–1 at home, 8–4 away and 3–2 across the last five, plus a 9–1 run in their past 10 at Canberra Stadium. Ignore the 62–24 loss to the Dolphins—they rested most of their starters. The profile screams points: 4th in the NRL for both points and tries.

Team news is big too with a stack of key ins—Ethan Strange, Hudson Young, Jamal Fogarty, Jed Stuart, Joseph Tapine, Josh Papalii, Kaeo Weekes, Matthew Timoko, Simi Sasagi, Tom Starling and Zac Hosking—while Adam Cook, Chevy Stewart, Joe Roddy, Kain Anderson, Manaia Waitere, Michael Asomua and Vena Patuki-Case are out. All signs point to Canberra leaning on their home fortress and attack to set the tone.

The Broncos head to Canberra sitting 4th at 15–9, riding a four-game heater and a 4–1 run across their last five after rolling the Storm 30–14 at Lang Park. They’ve got plenty of punch in attack (2nd for points, 3rd for tries), but handling can let them down—too many errors (4th most).

The venue hasn’t been kind with a 1–4 mark in their last five at Canberra Stadium. The splits read 9–3 at home and 6–6 away, so this is a proper road test against the ladder-leading Raiders. Team news is light but positive with Gehamat Shibasaki named in and no outs listed yet.

Stadium Record

Canberra are 9-1 in their last 10 games at GIO Stadium. Brisbane are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the Broncos have won 3 games against the Raiders.

Best Bet

Picking a winner in this one is tough. I think the Raiders have the edge at home but Walsh turns in a blinder, the Broncos will be hard to beat. So with a lot of attacking weapons on either side and in day conditions, I like the Over. It has a perfect 6-0 record when the Raiders host the Broncos in Canberra too.

Over 44.5 pts = $1.90

NRL Same Game Multi – Raiders v Broncos

Leg #1 – Broncos +6.5

Brisbane has covered the line in each of its last four matches and has won four straight overall. With form on their side, the +6.5 looks like a solid play in what should be a close, finals-style clash.

Leg #2 – Reece Walsh 8+ Points

Reece Walsh has been in electric touch, crossing for a try in each of Brisbane’s last four games. Add in his goal-kicking—7 goals last week plus 2 tries (20 points total)—and he’s cleared this mark with ease. Across his last four as kicker, he’s slotted 7, 3, 5 and 7 goals.

Leg #3 – Ethan Strange Anytime Tryscorer

Ethan Strange has been a bright spark for Canberra, scoring in each of his last three games with 5 tries in total. He’s quickly become a reliable anytime scorer threat.

Leg #4 (Value) – Kotoni Staggs Anytime Tryscorer

Kotoni Staggs has found the line in three of Brisbane’s last four matches and also has form against the Raiders, scoring in one of his last two outings against them. He adds strong value to the multi as a strike centre option.

Broncos +6.5 / Reece Walsh 8+ Points / Ethan Strange Anytime Tryscorer / Kotoni Staggs Anytime Tryscorer = $15.00

It’s the final round of the NRL season and the top 8 is still not completed, so it’s a massive weekend for some teams around the league. It kicks off on Thursday night footy with a huge top 4 clash as the Broncos are looking to make it 2 straight losses for the Storm.

Brisbane Broncos (4th) vs Melbourne Storm (2nd)

The Broncos head into the last game of the regular season against the Storm with a top-four spot on the line, and their form’s peaking at the right time. They’ve won three straight and are 4-1 across their last five, fresh off a 38–30 shootout over the Cowboys in Round 26. The attack has real bite—3rd in the NRL for points scored and 2nd for tries—so they can pile it on when they click. The watch-out is errors (they’re among the worst in the comp there), which can hand the Storm cheap field position. Overall it’s a 14–9 season with solid splits (8–3 at home, 6–6 away). If they keep the ball tidy and let the strike power do its thing, they’re every chance to lock in that top-four finish.

The Storm roll into the last game of the regular season against the Broncos sitting comfy in 2nd with a home final locked in, but there’s still a statement to make. They’re 17–6 on the year, 4–1 across the last five, and travel nicely at 8–3 away. Last week’s 30-point thud to the Roosters at Melbourne Rectangular Stadium stings, but the season profile is still elite: 1st in the NRL for tries and 2nd for points scored. That strike power should ask plenty of questions of Brisbane. If they reset after the hiccup and play at their usual tempo, they’re every chance to finish strong and keep momentum rolling into the finals.

Stadium Record

Brisbane are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. Melbourne are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Storm have won 9 games against the Broncos.

Best Bet

The Storm have got Hughes, Meaney and Coates back in the lineup so they’ll be playing hard, especially after last week’s shocker. So I like the Over, which is 9-1 when the Broncos face the Storm at home.

Over 48.5 = $1.87

Same Game Multi

Papenhuyzen likes playing in QLD, he has scored in 7 of his last 8 games when the Storm play up north. Josiah Karapani has scored in 3 straight and I think he makes it 4 straight against a shaky Storm edge defence that leaked plenty of winger tries last week.

Over 48.5 / Ryan Papenhuyzen Anytime Tryscorer / Josiah Karapani Anytime Tryscorer = $6.00

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (10th) vs New Zealand Warriors (6th)

The Sea Eagles take on the Warriors with everything on the line—sitting 10th, they basically have to win to sneak into the finals. It’s been a mixed run (11–12 overall, 2–3 in the last five) but they’ve found a bit of spark with back-to-back wins, including a 40–24 result over the Dragons in Round 26. Manly have been much tidier at home (7–4) than on the road (4–8), so if they keep that recent momentum rolling and cut out the lapses, they’re right in this one.

The Warriors head into this one against Manly with a top-four sniff still alive, sitting 6th and able to jump if results fall their way. It’s been a solid 14–9 season with balanced splits (7–5 at home, 7–4 away), though recent form is patchy at 2–3 and they’re coming off a tight 4-point loss to the Eels at Mount Smart. The big positive? They’re one of the best at looking after the footy—ranked 17th for errors made—so their set completion and field position should hold up. If they keep the mistakes down and turn pressure into points, they’re every chance to edge a finals-style arm wrestle with the Sea Eagles.

Stadium Record

Manly are 6-4 in their last 10 games at 4 Pines Park. New Zealand are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the head to head is squared at 2-2 (1 draw).

Best Bet

The Under has a 4-0 record at this venue and the Warriors have struggled to score pts with their halfback out for the season.

Under 47.5 = $1.90

Sydney Roosters (8th) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (13th)

The Roosters hit this one with everything to play for—sitting 8th and a win punches their finals ticket—so expect some intent. They’re 12–11 overall and rolling nicely at 4–1 across the last five, fresh off a huge 40–10 statement over the Storm in Round 26. The attack stacks up (5th for points and 5th for tries), which suits a high-tempo derby against Souths. The watch-out is errors—they’re among the worst in the comp there (3rd most)—and the home split isn’t perfect at 5–6, though they’ve travelled OK at 7–5 away. If they keep the handling tidy and lean on that strike power, the Chooks have the momentum to get it done in a massive game.

The Rabbitohs head into the derby with a bit of swagger after three straight wins and a 40–0 thumping of the Dragons at Stadium Australia. It’s still been a rough year overall (9–14), and the attack has lacked punch (bottom-tier for points and tries), but they’ve cleaned up the handling—one of the better teams at limiting errors. The splits tell the story too: 6–6 at home, 3–8 on the road. Sitting 13th and playing for pride, they’d love nothing more than to spoil the Roosters’ party in a fierce rivalry spot—and on current form, they’re not without a shout.

Stadium Record

Sydney are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue. South Sydney are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

The Roosters are 4-1 against the Rabbitohs in the last 5.

Best Bet

I think the Roosters get the job done but it should be high scoring. They’re 8-1 against the Over as a home team.

Over 50.5 = $1.90

St. George Illawarra Dragons (15th) vs Penrith Panthers (7th)

The Dragons finish up against the Panthers with nothing on the line ladder-wise (15th), but pride still matters. It’s been a tough year at 8–15 and they’ve dropped three on the trot, including a 16-point loss to Manly at Jubilee. Recent form is patchy (2–3 last five), and the road record has hurt (2–10) even though they’ve been serviceable at home (6–5). If they can start clean and keep the errors down, they can make it a scrap—but they’ll need to lift to match the Panthers’ tempo.

The Panthers face the Dragons with 7th spot locked in—can’t climb any higher—but they’ll still want a spark before finals after three straight losses. It’s been a 12–10 season and 2–3 across the last five, with a flat one last week (28–4 to the Bulldogs at Stadium Australia). They’re 6–6 at home and actually better away (6-1-4), so the big focus is cleaning up the start and getting their attack humming again. If they settle early and win field position, they’re a good chance to finish the regular season on a positive note.

Stadium Record

St. George are 6-4 in their last 10 games at WIN Stadium. Penrith are 2-3 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the Panthers have won 4 games against the Dragons.

Best Bet

The Over is 4-1 when the Dragons host the Panthers at home.

Over 47.5 = $1.85

Gold Coast Titans (17th) vs Wests Tigers (11th)

The Titans wrap up a rough season against the Tigers, sitting 17th but still a chance to dodge the wooden spoon if the Knights slip and they get the W. Form’s ugly—five losses on the bounce and 0–5 in the last five—and they’re coming off a 36–30 defeat to the Dolphins at Lang Park. It’s 5–18 overall with tough splits (2–9 at home, 3–9 away). The attack showed signs last week, but they’ll need to tidy up and finish sets to give themselves a shot here.

The Tigers finish up against the Titans after a solid-but-shy-of-finals year, sitting 11th and looking to end on a positive note. They’ve dropped two straight and are 2–3 across the last five, coming off a 24–10 loss to the Raiders in Canberra. The splits are pretty even (5–7 at home, 4–7 away), but the attack’s been the sticking point—bottom half for both points and tries (14th in each). Still, at 9–14 overall they’ve been competitive, and if they tidy up their sets and find a bit of polish in good ball, they’re a genuine chance to finish the season with a win.

Stadium Record

Gold Coast are 0-5 in their last 5 games at this venue. Wests are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Titans hold a 6-4 record.

Best Bet

The Tigers to finish off the season with a win against a Titans side that has lost 12 of their last 13 in the sunshine state.

Wests Tigers -1.5 = $1.90

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (3rd) vs Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (5th)

The Bulldogs finish up against the Sharks with 3rd spot already locked in, so this is all about keeping the momentum humming into finals. They’re 16–7 on the year and coming off a statement 28–4 win over the Panthers at Stadium Australia, a nice response after a patchy 2–3 run across the last five. The splits look strong too—9–2 at home and 7–5 away—so they’ve travelled and hosted well all season. Even without ladder pressure, expect a pretty businesslike effort to bank form and stay sharp for next week.

The Sharks roll into the Bulldogs clash with a bit to play for—sitting 5th at 14–9 and a live chance at the top four if they win and the Broncos slip. Form’s strong (4–1 last five, W2) and they’re coming off a 40–16 thumping of the Knights at Sharks Stadium. The split’s the big talking point: rock-solid at home (10–2) but a lot shakier on the road (4–7), so travel could be the leveller. If they bring the same intent and tidy up away from home, they’re right in this, even against a Dogs outfit that’s already locked into 3rd.

Stadium Record

Canterbury are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. Cronulla are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Sharks have won 7 games against the Bulldogs.

Best Bet

This should be a tough and defensive game, with the Under saluting. It’s 5-1 in the Dogs last 6.

Under 44.5 = $1.80

Dolphins (9th) vs Canberra Raiders (1st)

The Dolphins are right in the mix for a finals berth, sitting 9th and needing the Roosters to slip, so there’s plenty on the line against the Raiders. They’re coming off a 36–30 win over the Titans at Lang Park and while the recent run is a bit up-and-down (2–3 last five), the attack is legit—top of the comp for points and 2nd for tries. They’ve generally looked after the footy better this year and the splits are decent (6–5 at home, 5–7 away). If they bring that scoring punch and keep the errors down, they’re every chance to finish the regular season with a statement.

The Raiders roll into this one against the Dolphins with top spot locked up and a few big names getting a rest, but the form line still pops: 19–4 on the season, W3, and 4–1 across the last five after a comfortable 24–10 win over the Tigers in Canberra. They’ve travelled well (8–3 away) and been a wagon at home (11–1), and the profile is tidy—low error rate (ranked 17th for errors made is best; you’ve listed 14th, still solid) with top-four punch for both points and tries. Even with rotations, the system holds up, so the question is just intensity with nothing to gain. If they start clean and kick to corners, their depth can still make this a grind the Dolphins have to chase.

Stadium Record

The Dolphins are 4-3 at this venue since 2023. Canberra are 1-2 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

The Raiders are 3-1 against the Dolphins since 2023.

Best Bet

The Dolphins are 4-0 against the Over and it should be good conditions for attacking footy.

Over 52.5 = $1.95

Parramatta Eels (12th) vs Newcastle Knights (16th)

The Eels wrap up the season at home against the Knights with nothing but pride on the line, but they’ve found a little groove lately—back-to-back wins and 3-2 across the last five after edging the Warriors 26–22 in Round 26. It’s been a tough year overall (9–14) with the attack misfiring (bottom end for points and tries) and errors biting too, but the effort’s still there. The splits are what they are—5–6 at home, 4–8 away—so a familiar track should help. If they tidy up the handling and keep it tight through the middle, they can make this a proper scrap and finish on a positive note.

The Knights head to the Eels with the pressure on—sitting 16th and likely needing a win (if the Titans get up) to dodge the spoon. It’s been a rough stretch: eight straight defeats, 0–5 over the last five, and a 40–16 loss to the Sharks last start. The numbers tell the story too—most errors in the comp and the attack’s dried up (17th for both points and tries). They’re 6–17 overall with splits of 4–7 away and 2–10 at home, so the road hasn’t been kind either. If they can cut the mistakes and keep it tight through the middle, they’ve got a puncher’s chance—but they’ll need a big turnaround to finish on a high.

Stadium Record

Parramatta are 6-4 in their last 10 games at CommBank. Newcastle are 1-2 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Eels hold a 7-3 record against the Knights.

Best Bet

I think Parra win this but the Under trend looks good, it’s 7-1 in the Eels last 8 at this stadium.

Under 49.5 = $1.95

There are just 2 more rounds of the NRL regular season and the top 8 is far more settled. So it’s another big weekend ahead across the NRL and here is a betting preview of every game.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (3rd) vs Penrith Panthers (7th)

The Bulldogs take on the Panthers this week, and they’ll be looking to bounce back after a narrow 20-14 loss to the Storm at Melbourne Rectangular Stadium. It’s been a mixed run for them lately, dropping their last two games and going 2-3 across their past five. Still, they’ve shown strength at home with an impressive 8-2 record this season, while away from home they sit at 7-5. Overall, their 15-7 season record has them holding down 3rd spot on the ladder, but they’ll need to turn things around quickly if they want to stay in touch with the top teams.

The Panthers face the Bulldogs this week, but they’ll be going in well under strength after deciding to rest all their starters with the top 4 now out of reach. Big names like Nathan Cleary, Brian To’o, Dylan Edwards, Isaah Yeo, and Liam Martin are all out, which leaves them vulnerable. They’ve dropped their last two games, including a tight 4-point loss to the Raiders at Glen Willow Stadium, and their overall season record sits at 12-9, putting them 7th on the ladder. The Panthers have been solid away from home at 6-3, but only average at home with a 6-6 split. With a 3-2 record across their past five, they’ll need to find something extra with so much talent missing.

Stadium Record

Canterbury are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. Penrith are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Accor Stadium.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Panthers have won 9 games against the Bulldogs.

Best Bet

Sure, the Panthers are resting their starters but their second-string team could beat a lot of NRL teams and I think a 20 point start is worth taking against the out of form Doggies. They’re just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 night games.

Penrith Panthers +20.5 = $1.90

New Zealand Warriors (4th) vs Parramatta Eels (14th)

The Warriors head into their clash with the Eels on the back of a solid 32-18 win over the Titans in Round 25. They’ve now strung together two wins in a row and sit 4th on the ladder, meaning every game is crucial if they want to lock in a top-four finish. Their record shows plenty of consistency this season, going 7-4 both at home and away, and sitting at 14-8 overall. While they’ve only managed a 2-3 run across their last five, the back-to-back wins have given them some momentum at the right time of the year.

The Eels come into this one sitting 14th on the ladder with an 8-14 record, but they’ll take confidence from their big 30-10 win over the Roosters at Western Sydney Stadium last round. They’ve shown a bit of improvement lately with three wins from their last five, though their away form has been shaky at just 3-8 this season. At home they’re slightly better with a 5-6 record, but overall consistency has been an issue. Stat-wise, the Eels have really struggled in attack, ranking near the bottom of the NRL for points and tries scored, while also sitting high up in errors made. They’ll need to tidy things up if they’re any chance against the Warriors.

Stadium Record

New Zealand are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Parramatta are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Eels are 7-3 against the Warriors.

Best Bet

Should be tough scoring conditions over in NZ and the Eels are finishing off the season nicely. So I like the Under, which is 5-0 in the Eels last 5 games.

Under 43.5 = $1.87

Melbourne Storm (2nd) vs Sydney Roosters (8th)

The Storm are flying right now, riding a five-game winning streak and boasting a perfect 5-0 run from their last five outings. Sitting 2nd on the ladder with a 17-5 record, they’ve already locked in a top-two finish and a home final, which means they’ll be resting a few key players here. Even so, Melbourne remain the benchmark in attack, ranked number one in the NRL for both points and tries scored. Last round they edged out the Bulldogs 20-14 at AAMI Park, showing they can grind out wins as well as pile on the points. With strong records both home (9-2) and away (8-3), the Storm head into this clash with plenty of momentum.

The Roosters head into a must-win clash with the Storm as they fight to keep their finals hopes alive, sitting 8th on the ladder with an even 11-11 record. They’ll need to bounce back quickly after a disappointing 30-10 loss to the Eels at Western Sydney Stadium last round. Form-wise they’ve been up and down, going 3-2 across their past five, and their home record (5-6) hasn’t been great, though they’ve been slightly better on the road at 6-5. Statistically, the Roosters can put points on the board, ranking 5th in the NRL for both points and tries scored, but errors have been a major issue, with only two teams worse in that department. With everything on the line, they’ll need a clean performance if they’re to upset the Storm.

Stadium Record

Melbourne are 9-1 in their last 10 games at this venue. Sydney are 2-8 in their last 10 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Storm hold a 9-1 record.

Best Bet

The Storm are resting players and the Under is a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 home games.

Under 44.5 = $1.87

Canberra Raiders (1st) vs Wests Tigers (11th)

The Raiders come into this one on top of the ladder and already locked in for a home final, but they’ll still want to keep momentum rolling. Sitting at 18-4 for the season, they’ve been dominant both home (10-1) and away (8-3), and head in on a two-game winning streak. Last round they edged out the Panthers 20-16 in a tough contest, showing they can handle the pressure against quality opposition. Stat-wise, the Raiders are one of the best attacking teams in the comp, ranked 4th for points scored and 2nd for tries, while also keeping mistakes to a minimum with the 15th-fewest errors in the NRL. With four wins from their last five, they’ll be confident against the Tigers.

The Tigers head into their clash with the Raiders sitting 11th on the ladder, their season done and dusted but still playing for pride. They’re 9-13 overall, with a 5-7 record at home and 4-6 on the road, so consistency has been hard to come by. Last round they went down by six points to the Cowboys at Leichhardt Oval, and while they’ve managed three wins from their past five, scoring points has been their biggest issue, ranked 14th in the NRL in that area. With nothing left to play for but pride, they’ll be out to finish on a high against the competition leaders.

Stadium Record

Canberra are 9-1 in their last 10 games at this venue. Wests are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

The Raiders are 4-1 against the Tigers in the last 5.

Best Bet

There should be plenty of points in this matchup and the Raiders are 7-1 against the Over in Canberra.

Over 50.5 = $1.87

St. George Illawarra Dragons (13th) vs Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (10th)

The Dragons take on the Sea Eagles this week with their finals hopes already gone, sitting 13th on the ladder at 8-14. It’s been a rough patch for them, dropping their last two and coming off a brutal 40-0 loss to the Rabbitohs at Stadium Australia. Their away form has been poor all year at 2-10, though they’ve been much better at home with a 6-4 record. Overall, they’ve only managed two wins from their past five, and with nothing left to play for, it’s all about salvaging some pride to finish the season.

The Sea Eagles head into their clash with the Dragons sitting 10th on the ladder with a 10-12 record, still clinging to a slim chance of cracking the top 8. They snapped a poor run of form last week with a huge 58-30 win over the Dolphins at Brookvale, their first victory in five games. While they’ve been solid at home with a 7-4 record, their away form has been a real concern at just 3-8. With their finals hopes still alive, they’ll be desperate to back up last week’s performance and keep the pressure on the teams above them.

Stadium Record

St. George are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Manly are 2-5 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Dragons hold a 6-4 record against the Sea Eagles.

Best Bet

Should be a tough game. The Sea Eagles need to win but the Dragons will be looking to prove a point after last week’s awful display. So I like the Under here too.

Under 48.5 = $1.85

North Queensland Cowboys (12th) vs Brisbane Broncos (5th)

The Cowboys line up against the Broncos this week sitting 12th on the ladder with a 9-13 record, and while finals are off the table, they’ve managed to build some late-season form. They’ve won their last two, including a tight 34-28 victory over the Tigers in Round 25, and have gone 3-2 across their past five. At home they’re even at 5-5, while on the road they’ve struggled at 4-8. Errors have been a big issue all season, ranking 2nd worst in the NRL, but with back-to-back wins under their belt, the Cowboys will be looking to finish strong against their Queensland rivals.

The Broncos head into their Queensland derby with the Cowboys full of confidence after smashing the Knights 46-12 in Round 25. Sitting 5th on the ladder with a 13-9 record, they’re pushing hard to sneak into the top 4 and have hit some form with back-to-back wins. They’ve been tough to beat at home with an 8-3 record, though a little patchier on the road at 5-6. Stat-wise, the Broncos have one of the best attacks in the comp, ranked 3rd for both points and tries scored, but errors have hurt them, sitting 5th worst in the NRL. With three wins from their last five, they’ll be eager to keep their momentum rolling against the Cowboys.

Stadium Record

North Queensland are 5-4 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at QCB. Brisbane are 3-2 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the Broncos have won 5 games against the Cowboys.

Best Bet

Brisbane still have a shot of a top 4 spot and I think they’ll be strong for an inconsistent Cowboys team that makes a lot of errors.

Brisbane Broncos -6.5 = $1.95

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (6th) vs Newcastle Knights (16th)

The Sharks come into this one in good touch after thumping the Titans 54-22 at home, a win that keeps them right in the hunt for a top-four finish. Sitting 6th on the ladder with a 13-9 record, they’ve been especially strong at Sharks Stadium with a 9-2 record, though their away form hasn’t been as convincing at 4-7. They’ve won four of their last five to build some nice momentum, and with finals around the corner, they’ll be keen to keep that roll going against the Knights.

It’s been a nightmare season for the Knights, and things hit another low with the club sacking their coach today. Sitting dead last on the ladder in 16th with a 6-16 record, they’ve now lost seven straight and haven’t won in their last five. Their most recent outing was a heavy 34-point defeat to the Broncos at home, and their home record of 2-10 sums up their struggles. While they’ve been slightly better on the road at 4-6, the Knights are ranked last in the NRL for both points and tries scored, and they lead the comp in errors. Up against the in-form Sharks, it’s looking like another tough night ahead.

Stadium Record

Cronulla are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Shark Park. Newcastle are 4-7 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

The Sharks are 4-1 against the Knights in the last 5.

Best Bet

Let’s see if the Knights step up with their coach sacked and bring their defence to Cronulla. The Under is 7-1 when they play each other so should be the best bet.

Under 49.5 = $1.95

Dolphins (9th) vs Gold Coast Titans (17th)

The Dolphins head into their clash with the Titans sitting 9th on the ladder with a 10-12 record, knowing their finals hopes are on the line. They’ve hit a rough patch with three straight losses, the latest a high-scoring 58-30 defeat to the Sea Eagles at Brookvale. Despite the slump, their attack remains one of the best in the comp, ranked 2nd for points scored and 3rd for tries. They’ve been even at home with a 5-5 record and slightly weaker on the road at 5-7, while their last five outings have produced just two wins. With everything to play for, the Dolphins will need to rediscover their scoring punch and steady the ship fast.

It’s been a messy week for the Titans, with the club sacking Des Hasler but still having him coach the side – a pretty strange situation to say the least. On the field, things haven’t been much better, with the Titans stuck on a four-game losing streak and sitting second-last on the ladder at 5-17. Their last outing was a 14-point loss to the Warriors at Robina, and their home record of 2-9 shows just how tough it’s been. They’ve only managed one win from their past five, and while they’ve been slightly better on the road at 3-8, consistency has been missing all year. Up against a Dolphins side still chasing finals, it could be another tough night for the Titans.

Stadium Record

The Dolphins are 5-5 in their last 10 games at Suncorp. Gold Coast are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

The Dolphins are 4-1 against the Titans since 2023.

Best Bet

Both sides are a bit all over the shop at the moment, especially in defence. So I like the chances of the Over, which is 7-1 when the Dolphins play at Suncorp.

Over 53.5 = $1.85

Friday night footy in Round 25 is headlined by potential finals previews as the Panthers tackle the Raiders and the Storm host the Doggies. Here is a betting preview of every game this weekend.

South Sydney Rabbitohs (15th) vs St. George Illawarra Dragons (12th)

The Rabbitohs head into their clash with the Dragons sitting 15th on the ladder with an 8-14 record, but they’ve finally found a bit of form with back-to-back wins. Last week they edged out the Eels 20-16 at the Sydney Football Stadium, showing some resilience in a tight contest. At home they’ve been patchy with a 5-6 record and on the road it’s been even tougher at 3-8. Statistically, it’s been a rough season in attack — they rank last in the NRL for both points and tries scored — but they’ve at least kept their mistakes down, sitting 14th for errors made. With two wins on the trot, Souths will be keen to keep the momentum rolling against the Dragons.

The Dragons head into their clash with the Rabbitohs sitting 12th on the ladder with an 8-13 record, still hanging around the mix but struggling for consistency. They’ve dropped three of their last five and are coming off a tight 14-10 loss to the Warriors at Mount Smart. At home they’ve been decent with a 6-4 record, but their away form has been poor at 2-9, which has really held them back this season. With finals hopes fading, the Dragons will be desperate to bounce back and grab some momentum against Souths.

Stadium Record

South Sydney are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. St. George are 2-8 in their last 10 games at Accor Stadium.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Rabbitohs hold a 7-3 record against the Dragons.

Best Bet

The Under is 6-0 when Souths are at home against the Dragons and the wet Sydney conditions should be tough for scoring.

Under 40.5 = $1.87

Same Game Multi

The Dragons have been playing good footy lately. They’ve beaten the Raiders and Sharks, while almost upsetting the Warriors in NZ. So I think +8.5 is a very safe bet against Souths. Alex Johnston has scored in his last 4 games at Stadium Australia and the Bunnies would love to get him to the try-scoring record this season.

Under 40.5 pts / Dragons +8.5 / Alex Johnston Anytime Tryscorer = $6.75

Penrith Panthers (5th) vs Canberra Raiders (1st)

The Panthers head into their clash with the Raiders sitting 5th on the ladder with a 12-8 record and looking to bounce back after a narrow four-point loss to the Storm at Western Sydney Stadium. Despite that setback, they’ve been in good touch recently with four wins from their last five. At home they’ve been a bit patchy at 6-5, but their away form has been much stronger at 6-1-3. With finals around the corner, Penrith will be keen to hit back quickly and keep their momentum rolling.

The Raiders come into this clash with the Panthers sitting on top of the ladder with a dominant 17-4 record and plenty of confidence. They were too strong for Manly last week at Canberra Stadium, running out 28-12 winners in a solid all-round performance. At home they’ve been near unbeatable with a 10-1 record, while their away form has also been impressive at 7-3. Stat-wise, the Raiders have been one of the competition’s best attacking sides, ranking 3rd for points scored and 2nd for tries, while also keeping their mistakes down as the 16th-ranked team for errors. With four wins from their last five, they’ll be looking to keep the momentum rolling and make another statement against the Panthers.

Stadium Record

Canberra are 0-2 at this venue since 2010. Penrith are yet to play here.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the Panthers hold a 4-1 record against the Raiders.

Best Bet

I think this will be a defensive struggle and the Under is 8-1 in the Panthers last 9.

Under 39.5 = $1.90

Melbourne Storm (2nd) vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (3rd)

The Storm head into their clash with the Bulldogs sitting 2nd on the ladder with a 16-5 record and in red-hot form after four straight wins. They edged out the Panthers 22-18 in Round 24, showing once again why they’re one of the competition’s heavyweights. At home they’ve been rock solid with an 8-2 record, and they’ve matched that away from home with 8-3. Statistically, they’ve been the most dangerous attacking side in the NRL, leading the comp in both points and tries scored. With four wins from their last five and plenty of momentum, Melbourne will be looking to keep their streak going strong against the Bulldogs.

The Bulldogs head into their clash with the Storm sitting 3rd on the ladder with a 15-6 record, but they’ll be looking to bounce back after a 32-12 loss to the Roosters at the Sydney Football Stadium. They’ve still been solid overall with three wins from their last five, and their home form has been strong at 8-2, while they’ve also held up well on the road with a 7-4 record. With finals on the horizon, the Dogs will be eager to hit back quickly, but they’ll need to be at their best against a red-hot Melbourne outfit.

Stadium Record

Melbourne are 9-1 in their last 10 games at AAMI Park. Canterbury are 4-7 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Storm hold a 8-2 record against the Bulldogs.

Best Bet

Melbourne have a great record at home and come off a huge road win over the Panthers without Hughes. The Dogs are a bit hard to read and got smashed by the Roosters last week.

Melbourne Storm -5.5 = $1.85

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (10th) vs Dolphins (9th)

The Sea Eagles head into their clash with the Dolphins sitting 10th on the ladder with a 9-12 record and desperately needing a turnaround. They’ve lost their last four on the trot and only managed one win from their past five, with their most recent outing a 26-12 defeat to the Tigers at the Sydney Football Stadium. At home they’ve been decent with a 6-4 record, but their away form has been poor at 3-8. With finals hopes slipping away, Manly will be desperate to bounce back and snap their losing streak against the Dolphins.

The Dolphins head into their clash with the Sea Eagles sitting 9th on the ladder with a 10-11 record, still right in the hunt for finals but needing to steady up after back-to-back losses. Last week they went down 38-28 to the Broncos at Lang Park in a high-scoring affair. They’ve been fairly even across the board this season with a 5-5 home record and 5-6 away, but their attacking stats stand out — they rank 2nd in the NRL for points scored and 3rd for tries, while also keeping their errors low at 14th in the comp. With two wins from their last five, the Dolphins will be looking to bounce back quickly and keep their finals hopes alive against Manly.

Stadium Record

Manly are 6-4 in their last 10 games at 4 Pines Park. The Dolphins are 0-1 at this venue since 2023.

Head to Head Record

Since 2010, the head to head is tied at 1-1.

Best Bet

The Sea Eagles are out of form and haven’t covered in their last 4. So I like the Dolphins to get a road upset as they can still make the finals.

Dolphins WIN = $1.90

Gold Coast Titans (17th) vs New Zealand Warriors (4th)

The Titans head into their clash with the Warriors sitting 17th on the ladder with a 5-16 record, and it’s been another tough stretch with three straight losses. Last week they were blown away by the Sharks 54-22 at Sharks Stadium, highlighting their defensive struggles. At home they’ve only managed two wins from 10 games, while their away record isn’t much better at 3-8. With just one win from their last five, Gold Coast will be desperate to find some form and restore a bit of pride when they take on the Warriors.

The Warriors come into their clash with the Titans sitting 4th on the ladder with a solid 13-8 record, though their recent form has been a bit patchy with two wins from their last five. They’re coming off a tight 14-10 win over the Dragons at Mount Smart, grinding out a result in a low-scoring contest. At home they’ve been steady with a 7-4 record and just as strong away at 6-4. One of their big strengths this year has been discipline, ranking 17th in the NRL for errors made, which has helped them stay consistent. With finals around the corner, the Warriors will be looking to build some momentum and take care of business against the struggling Titans.

Stadium Record

Gold Coast are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. New Zealand are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

The Titans are 4-1 against the Warriors in the last 5.

Best Bet

In the last 6 meetings, the Titans are 5-1 as an underdog and also beat them in NZ this season. They could surprise the Warriors.

Gold Coast Titans +3.5 = $1.95

Parramatta Eels (14th) vs Sydney Roosters (8th)

The Eels head into their clash with the Roosters sitting 14th on the ladder with a 7-14 record, and it’s been a tough season on both sides of the ball. They went down 20-16 to the Rabbitohs at the Sydney Football Stadium last week in a game that slipped away late. At home they’ve managed just four wins from 10 games, while their away record sits at 3-8. Statistically, it’s been a real struggle in attack — they rank 15th in the NRL for both points and tries scored — and errors have also hurt them, sitting 3rd worst in the comp. With only two wins from their last five, the Eels will need to sharpen up quickly if they’re any chance of knocking off the Roosters.

The Roosters head into their matchup with the Eels sitting 8th on the ladder with an 11-10 record and riding a three-game winning streak. They were too strong for the Bulldogs last week at the Sydney Football Stadium, running out 32-12 winners in a solid display. Their attack has been a big weapon this season, ranking 4th in the NRL for both points and tries scored, though errors have been an issue with the side sitting 3rd worst in that area. At home they’ve been shaky at 5-6, but their away form has held up better at 6-4. With three wins from their last five and momentum on their side, the Roosters will be looking to keep their run going against the Eels.

Stadium Record

Parramatta are 5-5 in their last 10 games at CommBank. Sydney are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Roosters have won 8 games against the Eels.

Best Bet

The Roosters are one of the hottest sides in the NRL and I think they handle the Eels comfortably.

Sydney Roosters -9.5 = $1.85

Newcastle Knights (16th) vs Brisbane Broncos (6th)

The Knights head into their clash with the Broncos down in 16th spot on the ladder with a 6-15 record and struggling badly, having lost their last six games. Their most recent outing was a 38-4 thrashing at the hands of the Cowboys up in North Queensland, and they’ve gone winless in their last five. At home they’ve been poor with just two wins from 11 games, though they’ve been slightly better away at 4-6. Statistically, it hasn’t been much better — they lead the NRL in errors and rank 17th for both points and tries scored, highlighting their struggles in attack. With confidence at rock bottom, Newcastle face a massive challenge against the Broncos.

The Broncos head into their clash with the Knights sitting 6th on the ladder with a 12-9 record and coming off a solid 38-28 win over the Dolphins at Lang Park. They’ve picked up three wins from their last five and have been tough to beat at home with an 8-3 record, though they’ve been a bit shaky on the road at 4-6. Attack has been their biggest strength this year — they rank 4th in the NRL for points scored and 5th for tries — but errors have been an issue, sitting 5th worst in the comp. Up against a struggling Newcastle side, Brisbane will be looking to flex their attacking power and keep pushing for a strong finals spot.

Stadium Record

Newcastle are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue. Brisbane are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

The Broncos are 5-0 against the Knights in the last 5 meetings.

Best Bet

The Over is 9-0 in the Broncos last 9 interstate games and the Knights will likely struggle to stop their attack.

Over 46.5 = $1.87

Wests Tigers (11th) vs North Queensland Cowboys (13th)

The Tigers head into their clash with the Cowboys sitting 11th on the ladder with a 9-12 record, but they’ve started to build a bit of momentum with back-to-back wins. Last week they knocked off the Sea Eagles 26-12 at the Sydney Football Stadium in a strong performance. Their season overall has been patchy, going 5-6 at home and 4-6 on the road, while their attack has been a weak spot — ranking 14th in the NRL for both points and tries scored. Still, with three wins from their last five and some confidence building, the Tigers will fancy their chances of keeping the run going against North Queensland.

The Cowboys head into their matchup with the Tigers sitting 13th on the ladder with an 8-13 record, but they’ll take some confidence from last week’s big 38-4 win over the Knights at North Queensland Stadium. That result snapped a tough run, though they’ve still only managed two wins from their last five. At home they’ve been hit-and-miss with a 5-1-5 record, while away from home they’ve struggled badly at 3-8. Errors have been a major issue all season, with the Cowboys ranking 2nd worst in the NRL in that area. They’ll need to clean things up if they want to back up last week’s big win against the Tigers.

Stadium Record

Wests are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. North Queensland are 2-3 in their last 5 games at Leichhardt Oval.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Cowboys are 7-3 against the Tigers.

Best Bet

I also like the Over between these two, it’s 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.

Over 48.5 = $1.87

Finals fever starts early in Round 24 as we get the Panthers up against the Storm on Thursday night footy in a huge top 4 clash for both sides. Here’s a preview of every game this weekend around the NRL.

Penrith Panthers (4th) vs Melbourne Storm (2nd)

The Panthers are on fire right now, sitting 4th on the ladder with a 12-7 record and riding a nine-game winning streak. They’ve been strong both at home (6-4) and on the road (6-1-3), and last week they absolutely dominated the Knights, running away with a 48-12 victory. With five straight wins in their last five outings and plenty of momentum behind them, the Panthers will be full of confidence heading into this clash with the Storm.

The Storm are sitting pretty in 2nd spot on the ladder with a 15-5 record and come into this one on a three-game winning streak. They’ve been tough to beat both at home (8-2) and away (7-3), and last week they shut down the Broncos in style, cruising to a 22-2 victory. Melbourne’s attack has been electric all season, leading the NRL in both points and tries scored, and with four wins from their last five, they’ll fancy their chances of ending the Panthers’ hot run.

Stadium Record

Penrith are 7-3 in their last 10 games at CommBank. Melbourne are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Panthers hold a 6-4 record.

Best Bet

This should be like a finals game and I don’t see a high scoring affair. The Storm are missing Hughes and their attack hasn’t been as good without him. The Under is also 8-0 when the Panthers are the home team.

Under 40.5 = $1.87

Same Game Multi

Cleary have scored 10+ pts in his last 3 games since taking over the goal kicking duties and 6+ should be a safe bet against the Storm. Thomas Jenkins has scored in 3 straight games and the Storm have given up tries to wingers lately. Coates scored a double last week and has now scored 6 tries in his last 4 games. Expect the Storm to test the Panthers in the air.

Nathan Cleary 6+ pts / Thomas Jenkins Anytime Tryscorer / Xavier Coates Anytime Tryscorer = $4.70

New Zealand Warriors (5th) vs St. George Illawarra Dragons (11th)

The Warriors sit 5th on the ladder with a 12-8 record but come into this one on a three-game losing streak. They’ve been solid both at home and away (6-4 in each), but last week they were outplayed by the Bulldogs, going down 32-14 at Stadium Australia. One positive for the Warriors is their ball control – they rank 17th in the NRL for errors made, showing they know how to look after possession – but they’ll need to turn that into points if they’re going to bounce back against the Dragons.

The Dragons sit 11th on the ladder with an 8-12 record and come into this clash on a two-game winning streak. They’ve been much stronger at home (6-4) than on the road (2-8), but last week they impressed with a solid 22-14 win over the Sharks at Jubilee Stadium. With two wins from their last three and a bit of momentum building, the Dragons will be looking to carry that form into their trip across the ditch to face the Warriors.

Stadium Record

New Zealand are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. St. George are 2-3 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the Warriors hold a 3-2 record against the Dragons.

Best Bet

The Dragons head to NZ with a lot of confidence and they’re a perfect 10-0 ATS when facing a top 8 side.

St. George Illawarra Dragons +5.5 = $1.90

Sydney Roosters (9th) vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (3rd)

The Roosters are sitting 9th on the ladder with a 10-10 record and have started to build some momentum with back-to-back wins. They’ve been much better on the road (6-4) than at home (4-6), and last week they absolutely demolished the Dolphins 64-12 in a dominant attacking display. They’ve been one of the NRL’s most dangerous sides with ball in hand, ranking 4th for both points and tries scored, but errors remain an issue with the team sitting 3rd in the league for mistakes. If they can tidy that up, they’ll be a real threat against the Bulldogs.

The Bulldogs are flying high in 3rd spot on the ladder with a 15-5 record and have been tough to beat both at home (8-2) and away (7-3). They’re coming off a confident 32-14 win over the Warriors at Stadium Australia, making it four wins from their last five games. With that kind of form and plenty of momentum, the Bulldogs will be looking to keep the Roosters in check and strengthen their top-four push.

Stadium Record

Sydney are 3-7 in their last 10 games at SFS. Canterbury are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Roosters hold a 7-3 record against the Bulldogs.

Best Bet

This should be a great clash and I like the chances of a high scoring affair. The Roosters are 7-1 against the Over at home.

Over 41.5 = $1.85

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (7th) vs Gold Coast Titans (17th)

The Sharks are sitting 7th on the ladder with a 12-9 record and have been in decent form, winning four of their last five. They’ve been strong at home (8-2) but less convincing on the road (4-7), and last week they slipped up with a 22-14 loss to the Dragons at Jubilee Stadium. With finals approaching, they’ll be keen to bounce back quickly against the Titans and keep their spot in the top eight secure.

The Titans are down in 17th spot with a 5-15 record and have struggled for form, losing four of their last five and their past two on the trot. They’ve only managed two wins at home (2-8) and three on the road (3-7) this season, and last week they went down by just two points to the Rabbitohs at Robina Stadium. With nothing to lose, they’ll be looking to cause an upset against the Sharks.

Stadium Record

Cronulla are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Shark Park. Gold Coast are 2-3 in their last 5 games at Sharks Stadium.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Sharks hold a 9-1 record.

Best Bet

The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings and the Titans have showed a lot more spirit in defence lately.

Under 50.5 = $1.80

Brisbane Broncos (6th) vs Dolphins (8th)

The Broncos are sitting 6th on the ladder with an 11-9 record and have been solid at home (7-3) but less consistent on the road (4-6). They’re coming off a tough 22-2 loss to the Storm in Melbourne, but with three wins from their last five, they’re still in decent shape. Brisbane’s attack is a strength, ranking 5th in the NRL for both points and tries scored, though errors have been an issue with the side sitting 4th in the league for mistakes. They’ll be looking to bounce back strongly against the Dolphins.

The Dolphins sit 8th on the ladder with a 10-10 record and have been evenly matched at home and away (both 5-5). They’re coming off a nightmare outing, getting thrashed by 52 points against the Roosters at Lang Park, but overall they’ve won three of their last five. When they’re on, their attack is electric – ranked 2nd in the NRL for both points and tries scored – and they keep mistakes to a minimum, sitting 15th for errors made. They’ll need to bounce back quickly if they want to trouble the Broncos in this clash.

Stadium Record

Brisbane are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. The Dolphins are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the Broncos hold a 4-1 record against the Dolphins.

Best Bet

The Broncos have dominated the Dolphins in the NRL but they’ll be missing some key players. However, I still like the Over, which is 6-0 when the Dolphins are at Suncorp and they just gave up 60+ pts.

Over 48.5 = $1.90

South Sydney Rabbitohs (16th) vs Parramatta Eels (13th)

The Rabbitohs are 16th on the ladder with a 7-14 record and have found wins hard to come by lately, managing just one victory from their last five games. They’ve struggled both at home (4-6) and away (3-8) this season, and while they keep their error count relatively low (14th in the NRL), their attack has been a big problem – ranking last for both points and tries scored. Last week, they edged past the Titans 20-18 in a tight one, and they’ll be hoping that result can spark some momentum heading into their clash with the Eels.

The Eels are 13th on the ladder with a 7-13 record and have struggled for consistency, winning just two of their last five. They’ve had a tough time both at home (4-6) and away (3-7), and their attack hasn’t been firing, ranking 15th in the NRL for both points and tries scored. Errors have also been an issue, with the side sitting 4th in the league for mistakes. Last week, they managed to scrape past the Cowboys 19-18 in a nail-biter at Western Sydney Stadium, and they’ll be looking to build on that narrow win when they take on the Rabbitohs.

Stadium Record

South Sydney are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue. Parramatta are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Rabbitohs hold a 8-2 record.

Best Bet

Souths have got some talent back and the Eels are playing well with Moses back. So I like the Over, which is 5-0 when Souths host the Eels at home.

Over 47.5 = $1.87

Wests Tigers (12th) vs Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (10th)

The Tigers are 12th on the ladder with an 8-12 record and have shown some decent form lately, winning three of their last five. They’ve been evenly matched home and away (both 4-6) and are coming off a solid 28-14 win over the Bulldogs at Western Sydney Stadium. While their attack still needs work – ranking 14th in the NRL for both points and tries scored – they’ll be looking to carry that momentum into their clash with the Sea Eagles.

The Sea Eagles sit 10th on the ladder with a 9-11 record but have hit a rough patch, losing their last three games. They’ve been solid enough at home (6-4) but have struggled on the road (3-7), and last week they went down 28-12 to the Raiders in Canberra. With just two wins from their last five, they’ll be keen to turn things around and get back in the hunt when they take on the Tigers.

Stadium Record

Wests are 1-9 in their last 10 games at SFS. Manly are 0-5 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the Sea Eagles have won 4 games against the Tigers.

Best Bet

The Tigers have a strong Unders record at home, going 5-0 and they should be fresh from a longer break.

Under 48.5 = $1.85

North Queensland Cowboys (14th) vs Newcastle Knights (15th)

The Cowboys are 14th on the ladder with a 7-13 record and have struggled for form, winning just one of their last five and losing their past two. They’ve found it tough on the road (3-8) and haven’t been much better at home (4-1-5), and last week they suffered a heartbreaking 19-18 loss to the Eels at Western Sydney Stadium. Errors have been a big issue all season, with the side ranked 2nd in the NRL for mistakes, and they’ll need to clean that up if they want to get over the top of the Knights.

The Knights are 15th on the ladder with a 6-14 record and are going through a rough patch, losing their last five games. They’ve been poor at home (2-9) and only slightly better on the road (4-5), and last week they copped a heavy 36-point defeat to the Panthers in Newcastle. Errors have been a huge problem, with the side ranked worst in the NRL, and their attack hasn’t fired either, sitting 17th for both points and tries scored. They’ll need a massive turnaround if they’re going to snap their losing streak against the Cowboys.

Stadium Record

North Queensland are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue. Newcastle are 0-6 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Cowboys hold a 7-3 record against the Knights.

Best Bet

Both sides are out of the finals so hopefully they throw the ball around. The Over is also 5-1 when the Cowboys are home favs.

Over 47.5 = $1.87

Round 23 kicks off with a top 8 battle in Melbourne as the Storm host the Broncos. Here is a betting preview of every game this weekend in NRL Round 23.

Melbourne Storm (2nd) vs Brisbane Broncos (6th)

The Storm head into this one riding a two-game winning streak and fresh off a 16–10 win over the Eels in Round 22. They’ve been lightning hot all year – second on the ladder at 14–5 – and their attack speaks for itself, topping the NRL in both points and tries scored. Even on the road they’ve been deadly, going 7–3 away from home, and they’re rock solid in front of their own fans too at 7–2. With four wins in their last five and another chance to pile on the pressure, expect Melbourne’s potent offence to keep rolling against the Broncos.

The Broncos have been rolling lately, winning four of their last five and absolutely smashing the Rabbitohs 60–14 at Lang Park. They sit sixth on the table with an 11–8 record, and while their attack is no joke – fourth in the NRL for both points and tries. They’re rock-solid at home (7–3) but only 4–5 on the road, so facing the Storm away is a real test. Still, if they can keep their hands on the ball and keep the momentum going, they’ll be right in this one.

Stadium Record

Melbourne are 9-1 in their last 10 games at AAMI Park. Brisbane are 3-12 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Storm hold a 9-1 record.

Best Bet

The Under has become a good bet with the Storm as Hughes is out injured. The Broncos also have a nice 7-0 record against the Under when they travel.

Under 46.5 = $1.87

Same Game Multi

Melbourne have an impressive record against Brisbane at AAMI Park, winning 8 straight. They can also still finish 1st and that should be another motivating factor to win at home. Coates scored last week and has 4 tries in last 3 games. He would love to cross against his former team.

Under 46.5 / Melbourne Storm Win / Xavier Coates Anytime Goalscorer = $5.25

Newcastle Knights (14th) vs Penrith Panthers (5th)

The Knights have hit a rough patch, dropping four in a row and limping to a 44–18 loss against the Raiders in Canberra. They’re sitting 14th with a 6–13 record, and it’s clear why: they lead the league in errors and rank dead last for both points and tries scored. Home hasn’t been much better at 2–8, though they’ve managed a respectable 4–5 on the road. With just one win in their last five, it’ll be a tall order for Newcastle to turn things around against the Panthers.

The Panthers are flying high on an eight-game winning streak after squeezing past the Titans 30–26 in Round 22, thanks to Nathan Cleary. Sitting fifth with an 11–7 record, they’ve been rock-solid on the road (5–1–3) and solid at home (6–4). They’ve won all of their last five, and confidence is sky-high as they head into this clash with the Knights. Expect Penrith’s momentum to keep rolling against a struggling Newcastle side.

Stadium Record

Newcastle are 2-8 in their last 10 games at McDonald Jones Stadium. Penrith are 5-0 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the Panthers have won 4 games against the Knights.

Best Bet

The Panthers are looking for a top 4 finish and Newcastle are just playing for pride. So I Penrith make it 9 straight wins with a 2+ try victory.

Penrith Panthers -11.5 = $1.85

Canberra Raiders (1st) vs Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (10th)

The Raiders sit at the top of the ladder with a 16–4 record and despite a bump in the road – an 18–12 loss to the Dragons in Wollongong – they’ve still won four of their last five. They’ve been almost unbeatable at home (9–1) and strong on the road (7–3), all while keeping errors to a minimum (15th-fewest in the NRL) and firing up one of the league’s most potent attacks (third in both points and tries scored). Expect Canberra to shrug off that slip-up and bring the heat against the Sea Eagles.

The Sea Eagles have hit a rough patch, dropping their last two and coming off a 16-point loss to the Roosters at Brookvale. They’re sitting 10th on the ladder with a 9–10 record and have won three of their past five. Home has been solid at 6–4, but they’ve struggled away (3–6). Facing the red-hot Raiders won’t be easy, but if Manly can tighten up on the road and break this skid, they’ll be right in the mix.

Stadium Record

Canberra are 9-1 in their last 10 games at this venue. Manly are 6-3 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the Sea Eagles have won 3 games against the Raiders.

Best Bet

The Over is an impressive 7-0 when the Raiders are at home and both sides have plenty of points in them.

Over 46.5 = $1.87

St. George Illawarra Dragons (11th) vs Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (7th)

The Dragons are coming off a fun 18–12 win over the Raiders in Wollongong, snapping a three-game skid with that six-point victory. They’re sitting 11th on the ladder at 7–12, and while they’ve been solid at home (5–4), their away form (2–8) has let them down. With just one win in their last five, they’ll need to bring that energy from home into enemy territory if they’re going to trouble the Sharks.

The Sharks are buzzing right now, riding a four-game winning streak after smashing the Cowboys 32–12 at home. They’re sitting seventh on 12–8 for the season and have been almost unbeatable at Sharks Stadium (8–2), even if their away form (4–6) isn’t as flash. With four wins in their last five, they’ll fancy their chances against a Dragons side that’s been up and down. Expect Cronulla’s home crowd to help them keep the momentum rolling.

Stadium Record

St. George are 4-6 in their last 10 games at Kogarah. Cronulla are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Sharks are 10-0 against the Dragons.

Best Bet

The Sharks love playing the Dragons and have scored 31+ pts in their last 4 away meetings. But the Dragons are coming off a great win over the Raiders and should be able to score some points as well. So I like the Over, which is 5-0 when the Dragons are the home team.

Over 46.5 = $1.87

Dolphins (8th) vs Sydney Roosters (9th)

The Dolphins are on a high, riding a two-game win streak after sneaking past the Warriors 20–18 in Round 22. Sitting eighth at 10–9, they’ve been rock-solid both home (5–4) and away (5–5), and their attack packs a punch – second in the NRL for both points and tries – while keeping errors to a minimum (16th-fewest). With three wins in their last five, look for Brisbane to lean on that firepower and keep the momentum rolling against a Roosters side that’ll be keen to spoil the party.

The Roosters come into this one sitting ninth on a 9–10 record after trouncing the Sea Eagles 20–4 in Round 22, but they’ve only managed two wins from their last five. They’ve actually been better away (5–4) than at home (4–6) this season. Offensively they’re solid – fifth in the NRL for both points and tries scored – but they’ve been sloppy with the ball, ranking third worst for errors. They’ll need to clean that up if they want to break the Dolphins’ momentum and climb the ladder.

Stadium Record

The Dolphins are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Suncorp. Sydney are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

The Roosters are 3-1 against the Dolphins since 2023.

Best Bet

The Over has saluted in the last 2 meetings and it’s 5-1 when the Dolphins are at Suncorp too.

Over 47.5 = $1.85

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (3rd) vs New Zealand Warriors (4th)

The Bulldogs sit third on the ladder with a solid 14–5 record, though they stumbled last time out, going down 28–14 to the Tigers at Western Sydney Stadium. They’ve been tough away (7–3) and even tougher at home (7–2), and have picked up three wins from their last five. Facing the Warriors, expect Canterbury’s balanced form and hungry mindset to make this a tight, high-energy clash.

The Warriors head into this one sitting fourth with a 12–7 record, but they’ve hit a bit of a bump – losing two in a row and coming off a 20–18 loss to the Dolphins at Mount Smart. They’ve been pretty consistent both home (6–4) and away (6–3), though their last five games have only yielded two wins. The good news? They’ve been rock-solid with ball security, ranking 17th in the NRL for errors (that’s one of the best marks in the league), so if they can shake off that skid and tighten up around the ruck, they’ll fancy their chances against a Bulldogs side that’s tough but beatable.

Stadium Record

Canterbury are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. New Zealand are 7-8 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Warriors have won 7 games against the Bulldogs.

Best Bet

Saturday night should be a tough and low scoring battle between these two and the Under is 7-1 in the Dogs last 8 games.

Under 42.5 = $1.87

Gold Coast Titans (16th) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (17th)

The Titans are struggling this season at 5–14 and just can’t seem to find their groove, dropping four of their last five – most recently a tight 30–26 loss to the Panthers at Robina Stadium. They’ve been off the pace both at home (2–7) and on the road (3–7), though they’ve done a decent job hanging onto the ball (14th in the NRL for fewest errors). Sitting bottom of the ladder in 16th, they’ll need something special to upset the Rabbitohs.

Souths are in a world of pain right now, sitting 17th on 6–14 and stuck on a nine-game losing skid after getting rolled 60–14 by the Broncos at Lang Park. Their attack has barely fired all year – 16th in both points and tries – and they’ve gone winless in their last five. They’ve been slightly better at home (4–6) than on the road (2–8), but with form this rough, it’s hard to see them turning it around against the Titans.

Stadium Record

Gold Coast are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. South Sydney are 12-0 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

The Rabbitohs are 15-3 against the Titans since 2010.

Best Bet

Souths gave up 60 pts last week and their last 3 interstate games have gone Over the total. Should be friendly scoring conditions on the GC.

Over 52.5 = $1.87

Parramatta Eels (15th) vs North Queensland Cowboys (13th)

The Eels are sitting 15th with a 6–13 record and just one win in their last five. They’ve been patchy at Bankwest (3–6) and shaky on the road (3–7), and they’re coming off a close 6-point loss to the Storm at Western Sydney Stadium. Which wasn’t a bad effort considering the Storm are one of the premiership favs. If Moses can dominate this game like he did against the Broncos in Brisbane, the Eels should be able to get a sneaky win.

The Cowboys have been in a slump, winning just one of their last five and sitting 13th on 7–12 for the season. They took a hit in their last outing, falling 32–12 to the Sharks at Sharks Stadium. Their home form is middling (4–1–5) and they’ve struggled away (3–7), compounded by careless ball work – they’re second worst in the NRL for errors. If North Queensland can tighten up their handling and find some spark, they might sneak one here, but they’ll need a big turnaround to trouble the Eels.

Stadium Record

Parramatta are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue. North Queensland are 1-3 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Eels hold a 6-4 record against the Cowboys.

Best Bet

The Eels are showing some form with Moses back in the lineup and I think they can take advantage of the Cowboys defensive woes.

Parramatta Eels -4.5 = $1.90

The NRL top 9 is far from set and Round 22 will be another important one for teams looking at a shot of Grand Final glory. The action starts on Thursday night footy with the Eels looking for another upset as they host the Storm at CommBank.

Parramatta Eels (14th) vs Melbourne Storm (3rd)

The Eels edged the Broncos 22‑20 in Round 21, but that thriller masked a season‑long habit of shooting themselves in the foot: only three sides make more errors, and their attack ranks a lowly 15th for points and 14th for tries. Home turf hasn’t been a fortress (3‑5) and travelling’s even tougher (3‑7), so they’ll need a near‑perfect 80 minutes to keep pace with Melbourne’s clinical Storm outfit.

The Storm are coming into this clash against the Eels with a slick 13‑5 record and momentum to burn—four wins from their last five and a tidy 6‑3 mark on the road. They’re the NRL’s points‑scoring and try‑scoring kings, so you can bet they’ll be hunting the scoreboard early even without Hughes (gone for the regular season). Luckily, Papenhuyzen’s back patrolling the backfield and the rest of the spine still hums. Sitting third on the ladder and boasting a 7‑2 home slate, Melbourne just dropped 34 on the Roosters in Round 21; if they find that same rhythm, the under‑fire Eels might be chasing shadows all night.

Stadium Record

Parramatta are 5-5 in their last 10 games at CommBank. Melbourne are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the Storm have won 5 games against the Eels.

Best Bet

The Storm are going to miss Hughes in attack and Parra come off a nice win over the Broncos on the road. So I like the chances of the Under, which is 8-0 when the Eels host the Storm.

Under 47.5 = $1.87

Same Game Multi

I think the Eels can keep this close and +20.5 is a safe bet. Moses is back at halfback and they just beat the Broncos in Brisbane. Harry Grant loves playing Parra, scoring a try in his last 6 against them. He also crossed last week and took over the attack when Hughes went off with injury.

Under 47.5 pts / Eels +20.5 / Harry Grant Anytime Tryscorer = $12.00

New Zealand Warriors (4th) vs Dolphins (8th)

The Warriors roll into their showdown with the Dolphins still smarting from an eight‑point slip‑up against the Titans at Mount Smart, but overall they’re travelling nicely at 12‑6 and sitting fourth on the ladder. They’re rock‑solid both home and away (6‑3 on each front) and, crucially for punters, they keep their mistakes to a minimum—ranked 17th for errors in the comp. Form over the last month has been patchy 2‑3, yet when this side clicks, it turns field position into points in a hurry. Expect them to tighten the screws early and test the Dolphins’ discipline all night.

Fresh off a 43‑24 thumping of the Cowboys at Lang Park, the Dolphins will face off against the Warriors riding a 3‑2 patch and clinging to eighth on the ladder at 9‑9. They’re 5‑4 at home and 4‑5 on the road, but what really jumps off the page is their firepower—second‑best in the comp for both points and tries while keeping errors down (14th overall). If the attack hums like it did last week, and they keep the handling tidy, the Phins have every chance to turn this into a shoot‑out the Warriors mightn’t fancy.

Stadium Record

New Zealand are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue. The Dolphins are 0-2 at this venue since 2023.

Head to Head Record

In the last 5 meetings, the Warriors hold a 3-2 record against the Dolphins.

Best Bet

Interesting to see the Dolphins as favs in NZ. But I like the Over, which is 5-1 in the Dolphins last 6 night games and the Warriors defence struggled with the lowly Titans last week.

Over 46.5 = $1.95

Brisbane Broncos (6th) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (17th)

The Broncos hit this Rabbitohs clash sitting sixth on the ladder at 10‑8 and sporting a hot 4‑1 run across their last five, but that narrow two‑point slip‑up to the Eels at Lang Park shows they’re still prone to brain fades—no surprise for a side that ranks fifth‑worst for errors. When they keep the pill, though, they’re deadly: fourth in the comp for both points and tries, thanks to a slick spine and plenty of punch out wide. They’re a tidy 6‑3 at home but more vulnerable on the road (4‑5), so getting their attack to click early and minimising dropped ball will be key if they want to put the Bunnies on the back foot.

The Rabbitohs are buried in 17th spot (last) and riding an ugly eight‑game skid. They’ve dropped their last five, most recently falling 24‑22 to the Sharks at Polytec Stadium, and their season ledger sits at 6‑13. There is one silver lining: they don’t beat themselves too often, ranking a respectable 14th for errors. Trouble is, tidy hands haven’t translated into points—the Bunnies are second‑worst in the comp for both tries and total points. They’re only 4‑6 at home and an even shakier 2‑7 on the road, so unless the attack suddenly sparks, the red‑and‑green faithful could be in for another tough watch against a confident Broncos outfit.

Stadium Record

Brisbane are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Suncorp. South Sydney are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Rabbitohs are 6-4 against the Broncos.

Best Bet

The Rabbitohs were awesome defensively last week and hopefully that continues against the Broncos as I like the Under. It’s 4-0 in the Broncos last 4 too.

Under 48.5 = $1.85

Gold Coast Titans (16th) vs Penrith Panthers (5th)

The Titans snagged a morale‑boosting 24‑16 win over the Warriors in Round 21, but it barely dents a rough season: they’re 5‑13 overall, stuck down in 16th, and just 1‑4 across the last month. Home form’s shaky at 2‑6 and travelling hasn’t been much prettier (3‑7), so rolling into a showdown with the Panthers feels like climbing Everest in thongs. If they’re going to spring an upset, they’ll need the same spark they showed last week—plus a lot more polish—because Penrith won’t hand out freebies.

Riding a seven‑game heater, the Panthers are looking like serious finals movers once again. They just flogged the Tigers 36‑2 at Western Sydney Stadium and have now rattled off five straight wins to climb to fifth at 10‑7 overall. Home turf has been serviceable (6‑4), but it’s their form everywhere that counts—think a tidy 4‑3 record on the road and a defence that’s tightened the screws week after week. If they unleash that same ruthless edge on the 16th‑placed Titans, this could get ugly in a hurry.

Stadium Record

Gold Coast are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. Penrith are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Panthers are 9-1 against the Titans.

Best Bet

I think the Panthers do it easily as they look for a top 4 spot, they’ve covered the line in 5 straight games.

Penrith Panthers -12.5 = $1.85

St. George Illawarra Dragons (12th) vs Canberra Raiders (1st)

The Dragons limp into this clash with the Raiders on a four‑game slide, fresh off a 38‑32 shoot‑out loss to the Cowboys up in Townsville. Their season ledger sits at 6‑12, and the recent form is ugly—just one win from the last five. They’re break‑even at home (4‑4) but road trips have been brutal (2‑8), so Canberra will fancy their chances. If the Red V can tighten a defence that’s been leaking tries and rediscover some spark with the ball, they might hang around, but right now momentum’s all pointing green.

The Raiders swagger into this one atop the ladder at 16‑3, riding a nine‑game heater and fresh off a 44‑18 demolition of the Knights in Canberra. They’re lethal pretty much everywhere—7‑2 on the road, 9‑1 at home—and the numbers back it up: third for points, second for tries, and way down the pecking order for errors, which means they hardly hand the ball over. With five straight wins in their back pocket and an attack humming, the Green Machine looks set to roll on unless the Dragons can spring a major ambush.

Stadium Record

St. George are 6-4 in their last 10 games at WIN Stadium. Canberra are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10, the Raiders are 8-2 against the Dragons.

Best Bet

The Over is 7-1 in the Dragons last 8 and the Raiders are scoring points like no tomorrow.

Over 45.5 = $1.90

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (9th) vs Sydney Roosters (10th)

The Sea Eagles are coming into this clash sitting 9‑9 and clinging to ninth spot, but they’ve got plenty to prove after copping a 42‑4 hiding from the Bulldogs at the SFS. Home’s been a decent fortress at 6‑3, yet their 3‑6 road record shows the wheels can wobble away from Brookie. Form’s patchy at 3‑2 over the last five, so consistency is the big question—if they shake off last week’s shocker and bring their usual home‑ground grunt, they can push the Roosters, but another slow start could see them chasing feathers all night.

The Roosters are riding a two‑game skid after falling four points short of the Storm at the SFS. They’re dead‑even on the road (4‑4) but shaky at home (4‑6), and handling’s been a killer — they cough it up more than all but two sides. Still, when they hang onto the pill they can light it up, sitting fifth for points and fourth for tries, so the attack’s never the worry. If they can tighten up the errors and channel that scoring punch, they’ve got every chance to ruffle the Sea Eagles’ feathers.

Stadium Record

Manly are 6-4 in their last 10 games at 4 Pines Park. Sydney are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Roosters have won 6 games against the Sea Eagles.

Best Bet

The Under is 5-0 when the Sea Eagles are at home and I think this will be like a tough finals clash as both sides look to make the top 8.

Under 46.5 = $1.80

Wests Tigers (13th) vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (2nd)

The Tigers are sitting 13th at 7‑12, and the attack is still MIA — they’re 14th for both points and tries, which showed in last week’s 36‑2 thumping from the Panthers at Western Sydney. They’ve split their last five 2‑3, but home turf hasn’t been kind (3‑6) and they’re only a touch better on the road (4‑6). If they can’t find some spark with the ball, they’ll be leaning hard on hustle and hope to keep this one within striking distance.

The Bulldogs come into this one sitting second on the ladder at 14‑4, firing on a three‑game heater after hammering Manly 42‑4 at the SFS. They’re rock‑solid wherever they play—7‑2 both home and away—and while the last five have been a mixed 3‑2, the overall form screams contender. If they bring the same ruthless edge they showed against the Sea Eagles, the Tigers could be chasing their tails all night.

Stadium Record

Wests are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue. Canterbury are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.

Head to Head Record

The Bulldogs are 4-1 against the Tigers in the last 5 meetings.

Best Bet

The Doggies elite defence should continue what Penrith did last week and that should see the Under salute. It’s also 8-1 in the Tigers last 9 at this stadium.

Under 44.5 = $1.80

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (7th) vs North Queensland Cowboys (11th)

The Sharks come into this clash on a handy three‑game roll, fresh from edging the Rabbitohs 14‑12 in Round 21. They’re 11‑8 overall and perched seventh, with a real Jekyll‑and‑Hyde split: deadly at Shark Park (7‑2) but shakier on the highway (4‑6). Still, three wins from their past five suggests they’re finding rhythm, and if they channel that home‑ground sting, the Cowboys could be in for a choppy night.

The Cowboys head into Shark Park sitting 11th at 7‑11, still blowing a bit hot‑and‑cold despite last week’s 38‑32 shoot‑out win over the Dragons up in Townsville. They’re a scratchy 2‑3 across their past five and road trips have been a headache all year (3‑6), while even at home they’ve split results 4‑5. Ball control’s the killer—only one team coughs it up more—so if they can’t tidy those errors, the Sharks’ home‑ground bite could make life ugly in a hurry.

Stadium Record

Cronulla are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. North Queensland are 5-7 at this venue since 2010.

Head to Head Record

In the last 10 meetings, the Sharks hold a 8-2 record against the Cowboys.

Best Bet

The Cowboys give up plenty of points each week and the Over is 4-1 when the Sharks face North QLD on their home turf.

Over 47.5 = $1.87