Phoenix Suns @ OKC Thunder

The Thunder tore the Suns apart in Game 1, and we could be in for something similar again in OKC.

With blowout potential, unders come into play for certain props, but there are still a few angles worth targeting.

Leg 1 – Isaiah Joe 2+ 3PM

Juicy odds to kick things off, but there are two key factors here. Isaiah Joe’s minutes are secure around the 20 mark regardless of game script, and his shot profile is extremely predictable.

Since March 15, Joe is averaging 7.6 field goal attempts per game, with 83% of those coming from beyond the arc. That’s 6.4 three-point attempts per game, converting at roughly three makes.

In Game 1, all eight of his shots were triples, knocking down three, and he’s hit 2+ threes in 10 of his last 12 games.

Leg 2 – Mark Williams Under 7.5 Rebounds

The Suns appear to trust Oso Ighodaro more, which likely limits Mark Williams to a bench role around 20 minutes.

Williams hasn’t played much basketball over the past two months and is averaging just 6.3 rebounds across his last nine games.

He’s also struggled against OKC this season, failing to record 8+ rebounds in all three meetings, averaging just four per game.

Leg 3 – Jalen Williams 15+ Points

After an injury-interrupted season, Jalen Williams made an immediate impact in Game 1 with 22 points in just 29 minutes.

Across his last 10 games he’s averaging 18.1 points, with that jumping to 25.7 per-36 minutes.

Expect OKC to continue building his minutes, likely around the 30 mark again, which should see him clear 15+ comfortably.

Same Game Multi

Joe 2+ 3PM / M Williams Under 7.5 Rebounds / J Williams 15+ Points = $4.33

Value Bet – Alex Caruso 4+ Rebounds @ $3.30

Caruso is a different beast in the postseason, and his minutes were only limited in Game 1 due to the blowout.

He still managed five rebounds in just 13 minutes, and since March 1 he’s been hitting 4+ rebounds at a solid rate.

Across that 16-game stretch he’s averaged 3.3 rebounds, clearing 4+ on nine occasions, including three of his last four despite similar limited minutes.

If his minutes tick up even slightly to the 16-18 range, this becomes a strong play.

Houston Rockets @ LA Lakers

The Lakers secured the four-seed and will need that home court advantage as they look to advance without two key pieces.

It’s a huge ask, but Houston’s second-half form has been underwhelming. Can the Lakers pinch Game 1 at home?

Leg 1 – Deandre Ayton Over 13.5 Points

Backing Ayton is never comfortable, but this Lakers team needs his scoring alongside LeBron, who will draw heavy defensive attention from Amen Thompson.

Ayton is averaging 16.5 points in the four games he’s played without Luka and Reaves but with LeBron, including 22 points in just 25 minutes last start against Utah.

He also had 16 against Houston in their March meeting.

Leg 2 – LeBron James 6+ Rebounds

LeBron’s rebounding numbers lift without Luka and Reaves, averaging 7.2 boards across five such games this season.

He’s hit 6+ rebounds in four of those, and while he only managed four last start, he played just 16 minutes.

Expect him closer to 36 minutes in this spot.

Leg 3 – Kevin Durant 4+ Assists

Durant’s usage should be high as Houston looks to steal Game 1 on the road.

He’s averaging 5.9 assists across his last 17 games and has recorded 4+ assists in 14 of those.

He’s also averaged 4.7 assists in three games against the Lakers this season.

Same Game Multi

Ayton Over 13.5 Points / LeBron 6+ Rebounds / Durant 4+ Assists = $3.40

Value Bet – Marcus Smart 6+ Assists @ $3.35

Marcus Smart has stepped into the primary playmaking role and performed strongly.

He recorded seven assists in 18 minutes against the Suns, then followed up with 10 in 26 minutes against Utah.

If those minutes hold, six assists looks very achievable, with upside in higher alt lines once available.

Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic

The Detroit Pistons will be watching closely, set to face the winner in the first round. Publicly they won’t mind, but internally they’d much prefer Orlando.

Charlotte is dangerous. They’ve shaken off the play-in hoodoo with this young group, and if they replicate their form from the past three months, they’ll be tough to stop — even on the road.

Leg 1 – Charlotte Hornets -3.5

This shapes as a Hornets win. They got over the line in their first play-in game, and while Miami pushed them, Orlando doesn’t have that same coaching edge to lean on.

Since January 1, Charlotte ranks first in the NBA for net rating with a 33-16 record. Orlando sits 18th over that same period.

The Hornets have also won the last three meetings between these teams by an average of 20.3 points. Expect another statement performance here.

Leg 2 – Miles Bridges 15+ Points

Miles Bridges remains a key piece for Charlotte and comes off a 28-point outing against Miami.

While his late regular season numbers dipped, his minutes were also reduced. In his last 13 games playing 30+ minutes, he’s averaged 18 points per game.

He’s hit 15+ in five of his last seven games with 30+ minutes, which is the role he should see here.

Leg 3 – Jalen Suggs 2+ Threes

Suggs had a poor shooting night against Philadelphia, but this sets up as a bounce-back spot.

When playing 30+ minutes this season, he averages 7.7 three-point attempts and 2.5 makes per game.

Prior to last game, he had hit 2+ threes in 13 of his previous 14 games in that role.

Same Game Multi

Hornets -3.5 / Bridges 15+ Points / Suggs 2+ Threes = $4.20

Value Bet – Charlotte 11+ @ $3.32

Player prop value is limited here, but the blowout angle is appealing.

Charlotte has consistently put teams away this season, and prior to their overtime win over Miami, they had won ten straight games by 11+ points.

They’ve also beaten Orlando comfortably in their last three meetings. If they get on top early, this could get ugly.

Golden State Warriors @ LA Clippers

This is a fascinating matchup. Golden State finally welcome back Steph Curry, while the Clippers appear to have adjusted well to life without James Harden.

The Warriors will need Curry at his best to advance, while LA’s hopes once again rest on Kawhi Leonard, who has carried the load for much of the season.

LEG 1 – Steph Curry 25+ Points

Star players have stepped up in the play-in so far, which makes this line appealing for Curry.

He has played just four games since returning from injury, averaging 20.3 points, but his per-36 numbers sit at 27.2 as Steve Kerr has managed his minutes.

Curry had 24 points in just 28 minutes against the Clippers a few days ago. In an elimination game, expect his minutes to push into the mid-30s, which should be enough to clear this line.

LEG 2 – Draymond Green 6+ Assists

Draymond’s playmaking thrives when the Warriors are at full strength.

He has only played two games alongside Curry and Porzingis this season but has recorded 6+ assists in both, averaging nine per game.

His per-36 assist rate sits at 11.3, and he has hit 6+ assists in seven of his last eight games coming into this matchup.

LEG 3 – Kawhi Leonard 25+ Points

The same logic applies to Kawhi, but with even more confidence.

Across his last 19 games, Leonard is averaging 28.1 points and 32.8 points per 36 minutes.

He has scored 25+ points in 14 of those 19 games, and in a win-or-go-home scenario, expect his usage and minutes to peak.

Same Game Multi

Curry 25+ Points / Leonard 25+ Points / Green 6+ Assists = $3.20

VALUE BET – Draymond Green 10+ Assists @ $6.50

Draymond has a history of lifting in big games, including a 10-assist performance in last year’s play-in.

In the only game he has played 30+ minutes alongside Curry and Porzingis, he recorded 12 assists against Houston.

His chemistry with Porzingis has developed quickly, and with Gary Payton II heavily involved, there are plenty of assist pathways in this offense.

LA Clippers @ Portland Trail Blazers

There are plenty of dead rubbers on Saturday, but this is not one of them. Portland are pushing for a playoff spot, and a win here keeps them in the hunt for a double chance in the play-in.

The Blazers won this matchup less than a fortnight ago. Back at home, they’ll be looking to repeat the dose.

LEG 1 – Trail Blazers -1.5

Portland have been strong at home and will be desperate to secure a win to keep their postseason hopes alive.

They have covered in seven of their last nine home games, winning five of their last six.

While the Clippers have won their last four road games, those wins came against weaker opposition in the Pacers, Mavericks, Kings and Bucks. More importantly, they have failed to cover in six of their last seven road games.

LEG 2 – Under 225.5 Total Points

This is the fourth meeting between these teams this season, and all three previous matchups have gone under this total.

The average total points across those games sits at 220.3.

Portland’s last three home games have also gone under, and with play-in implications on the line, expect a tighter, more defensive contest.

Same Game Multi

Trail Blazers -1.5 / Under 225.5 Total Points = $3.40

VALUE BET – Portland Trail Blazers 1-10 @ $3.15

The tight line reflects how close this matchup should be.

Portland won by 10 in LA less than two weeks ago, but expect the Clippers to adjust.

The Blazers still look the more likely winner, but this shapes as a close contest.

Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers

This is a fascinating matchup. The Hawks and Cavs meet here, then again in Atlanta two days later, and there’s every chance this turns into a first-round playoff series.

The Cavs may be content finishing fourth, potentially setting up a second-round clash with Detroit rather than Boston. As for Atlanta, it’s tight between the five and nine seeds, so they’ll be desperate to keep winning and avoid the play-in.

LEG 1 – Jalen Johnson Over 39.5 PRA

Johnson may have taken a slight step back offensively behind Alexander-Walker, but his all-round production remains elite.

He is averaging a PRA of 40.4 across his last 14 games, despite only clearing this line once in his last four.

The matchup is strong. Cleveland concede points to power forwards 13% above average over the last month, along with a slight bump in assists. In two games against the Cavs this season, Johnson has averaged 26 points, 12.5 rebounds and 8.5 assists.

LEG 2 – Dyson Daniels 6+ Rebounds

Daniels has been posting strong rebounding numbers while playing more as a small forward alongside Alexander-Walker and McCollum.

Since the All-Star break, he is averaging 7.7 rebounds per game and has recorded 6+ rebounds in 16 of 21 games.

He pulled down eight rebounds the last time he faced Cleveland.

LEG 3 – Jarrett Allen 6+ Rebounds

This is a low line for Allen given his recent output.

He is averaging 10 rebounds per game across the six games he’s played alongside Harden, Mitchell and Mobley, recording double-digit rebounds in five of those.

Across his last 17 games, Allen is averaging 10.1 rebounds and has hit 6+ in 15 of them.

Same Game Multi

Johnson Over 39.5 PRA / Daniels 6+ Rebounds / Allen 6+ Rebounds = $3.25

VALUE BET – Dyson Daniels 10+ Rebounds @ $4.30

Daniels has quietly produced some big rebounding games of late.

In Atlanta’s preferred starting five, which ranks among the best net rating lineups in the NBA (min. 100 minutes), Daniels is averaging 8.2 rebounds across their last 16 games together.

He has recorded 10+ rebounds in six of those games, including two of his last three.

He had eight rebounds the last time he faced Cleveland, but in this current system he should have more opportunities on the glass.

Detroit Pistons @ Philadelphia 76ers

With the return of Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey, the 76ers have launched themselves into the top six in the East. They now face the toughest challenge in the conference, however, taking on the Detroit Pistons.

Cade Cunningham has missed some time, but Detroit hasn’t slowed down, with Jalen Duren stepping up as they close in on the No. 1 seed in the East.

LEG 1 – Jalen Duren 20+ Points

Duren has become Detroit’s go-to scorer in the absence of Cade Cunningham.

Without Cunningham and Isaiah Stewart, Duren is averaging 23.3 points per game across an eight-game sample and has scored 20+ in seven of those games.

The 76ers are conceding points to centres 13% above league average over the last month, so this is another strong opportunity for him.

LEG 2 – Daniss Jenkins Over 27.5 PRA

Jenkins is another player who has stepped up in Cade’s absence, especially in recent weeks.

Across his last eight games without Cunningham and Stewart, Jenkins is averaging 20.6 points, 4.8 rebounds and 7.3 assists, giving him a PRA average of 32.6.

He has covered this line in six of those eight games and also posted a PRA of 30 against Philadelphia earlier in the season.

LEG 3 – Kelly Oubre 4+ Rebounds

Oubre is a different player when Paul George is out, and with both George and Embiid expected to miss here, he should again have a bigger role.

In his last seven games with Maxey and Edgecombe, but without George and Embiid, Oubre is averaging 4.9 rebounds and has hit 4+ in six of those seven games.

Same Game Multi

Duren 20+ Points / Jenkins Over 27.5 PRA / Oubre 4+ Rebounds = $3.75

VALUE BET – Duncan Robinson 15+ Points @ $2.55

Robinson has faced the 76ers three times this season, averaging 17 points per game and scoring 15+ in all three matchups.

His recent form in Cade Cunningham’s absence has also been strong, hitting 15+ points in three of his last four games without the All-Star guard.

Expect the former Miami Heat sharpshooter to get good looks again here.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Sacramento Kings

Neither team has a great deal to play for at this stage of the season, although the Pelicans have slightly more incentive given they don’t own their first-round pick in the upcoming draft.

That said, there have been some promising signs for the Kings recently, particularly from their big men.

LEG 1 – Maxime Raynaud 10+ Points

The rookie Frenchman has had a productive season and should be good for double-digit scoring again here.

Raynaud is averaging 16.7 points per game since the All-Star break and has scored 10+ points in 18 of his last 21 games.

LEG 2 – Precious Achiuwa Over 22.5 Points + Rebounds

Achiuwa is averaging 16.4 points and 9.8 rebounds per game since the All-Star break and gets a favourable matchup against New Orleans.

When these teams met a month ago, Achiuwa recorded 29 points and 12 rebounds, well clearing this line.

His recent form has also been strong, averaging 17.2 points and 10.6 rebounds across his last nine games and covering this line in six of those games.

LEG 3 – Malik Monk 4+ Assists

Malik Monk has been in and out of the rotation this season but is now playing around 27 minutes per game due to injuries.

Since January 23, Monk has played 23+ minutes on nine occasions and has recorded 4+ assists in all nine of those games.

Across his last ten games, he has recorded 4+ assists in nine of them.

Same Game Multi

Raynaud 10+ Points / Achiuwa Over 22.5 Points + Rebounds / Monk 4+ Assists = $3.75

VALUE BET – Precious Achiuwa 12+ Rebounds @ $5.10

Achiuwa had 12 rebounds against the Pelicans when these teams met a month ago, and this price looks strong for him to repeat that performance.

The Pelicans have been conceding rebounds to power forwards above league average over the last month, and Achiuwa has recorded 12+ rebounds in three of his last nine games, including 19 rebounds in his last outing.

Chicago Bulls @ Memphis Grizzlies

Despite both teams being out of the playoff picture, they were competitive in their Saturday games, with Chicago challenging Oklahoma City for three quarters while Memphis pushed Houston.

Both teams now enter this matchup on no rest, and Josh Giddey will look to continue his strong assist form.

LEG 1 – Tre Jones Over 13.5 Points

Tre Jones has been playing very well over the last month in a dual point guard role alongside Josh Giddey.

Jones is averaging 16.8 points across his last 14 games and has covered this line in 11 of those.

Across his last four games he is averaging 17.8 points and has scored at least 15 points in each of them.

LEG 2 – Olivier-Maxence Prosper 10+ Points

Prosper is coming off a huge game where he scored 31 points against Houston and has been a consistent scorer when starting for Memphis.

He is averaging 13.5 points across 20 starts and has hit double figures in 75% of those games.

Across his last 13 starts he is averaging 13.8 points and has scored 10+ in 11 of those games.

LEG 3 – Josh Giddey 10+ Assists

Giddey’s assist numbers have been outstanding to finish the season.

Since March 8, he is averaging 12.3 assists per game across a 10-game sample and has recorded double-digit assists in nine of those games.

He also recorded 13 assists against Memphis less than two weeks ago.

Same Game Multi

Jones Over 13.5 Points / Prosper 10+ Points / Giddey 10+ Assists = $3.50

VALUE BET – Matas Buzelis 25+ Points @ $3.15

Buzelis has cooled slightly since his 40-point game a few weeks ago but gets a very good matchup against Memphis.

He scored 29 points against the Grizzlies less than a fortnight ago in just 31 minutes, and with Chicago’s rotation getting thinner late in the season, his minutes should increase.

If he pushes towards the mid-30s in minutes again, he has a strong chance to clear this number.

Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics

The 5 and 6 seeds are well and truly up for grabs in the East, and with how tight the standings are between 5 and 10, the Hawks will be determined to continue their hot form.

It won’t be easy though. The Celtics are coming off an impressive win over Oklahoma City and are in a battle of their own as they try to secure the No. 2 seed.

LEG 1 – Jayson Tatum Under 28.5 Points + Assists

Tatum is still working his way back after the Achilles injury he suffered in last season’s playoffs.

This will be just his tenth game of the season and while his minutes are increasing, he still hasn’t covered this points and assists line in any of his nine games so far.

Across those games, Tatum is averaging 19.1 points and 3.7 assists, with Jaylen Brown still clearly the primary scorer for Boston.

LEG 2 – Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 17.5 Points

Alexander-Walker has been on fire over the past three weeks and has put himself firmly into the Most Improved Player conversation.

He’s averaging 23.8 points per game across his last 11 games and has covered this line in 10 of those.

He also covered this number in both games against Boston earlier this season.

LEG 3 – Onyeka Okongwu 10+ Points

Okongwu has performed well against Boston this season, averaging 19 points per game across their two meetings.

He has still hit double figures in 13 of his last 16 games, and the Celtics have been conceding points to centres at a high rate over the last month.

Same Game Multi

Alexander-Walker Over 17.5 Points / Okongwu 10+ Points / Tatum Under 28.5 Points + Assists = $4.50

VALUE BET – Jock Landale 10+ Points @ $3.20

With Okongwu occasionally getting into foul trouble, it opens up minutes for Jock Landale at centre.

Landale has only hit double figures in two of his last seven games, which explains the price, but Boston have been conceding three-point shots to centres at a very high rate.

As a stretch five, Landale could take advantage if he gets the minutes.