The Spurs kept their Championship hopes alive with a big Game 3 win, but can the Knicks consolidate their lead and record the first home court win of the Finals?

San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks

Wemby and Castle had big games for San Antonio to keep their Championship aspirations alive, while the Knicks went into their shell a bit. That being said, New York still nearly pinched it.

No team has won at home in this NBA Finals from three attempts so far. Can the Knicks take a 3-1 lead, or will San Antonio square the series?

Leg 1 – Jalen Brunson 25+ Points

Brunson has been extremely high volume for usage and attempts in the Finals against the Spurs, and I don’t think anything will change in Game 4.

Averaging 27.3 points, Brunson is attempting 27 field goal attempts per game, and with how Game 3 panned out for the Spurs I don’t see them throwing double teams at him in Game 4 unless he pops off early.

Regardless, he should be good for 25 points based on how often the point guard has the ball in his hands.

Leg 2 – OG Anunoby 15+ Points

He’s been super-consistent for the Knicks all post-season, and in the Finals so far.

Anunoby is averaging 20.7 points per game in the three games so far, and has hit 15+ points in all three games.

Another positive is the spike in Anunoby’s minutes. Getting injured in the 76ers series, OG returned playing around that 30-minute mark per game, but in his last two he’s back around the 36-38 minute mark.

Leg 3 – Stephon Castle 4+ Rebounds

Castle’s minutes went right back up in Game 3 with a strong game in San Antonio’s win, and his rebounding has been consistent all post-season.

Averaging five rebounds per game in the playoffs, Castle has hit 4+ rebounds in 17 of the 21 games, including 15 of the last 16.

Pulling in 5.7 rebounds per game this series, he’s good for at least four.

Same Game Multi

Brunson 25+ Points / Castle 4+ Rebounds / Anunoby 15+ Points = $3.30

Value Bet

Looked a lot better in Game 3, but as a distributor with De’Aaron Fox’s shooting still an issue for the Spurs.

Fox played a true point guard role in Game 3 and it worked perfectly, with Wemby scoring from pick and roll and pick and pop actions involving Fox.

The former Kings guard also turned the corner and drew the help defense to find the likes of Vassell and Champagnie from three. With how poor his touch is, I think this will continue to be his role in this Spurs team.

De’Aaron Fox 8+ Assists @ $3.20

The Knicks head to Madison Square Garden in Game 3 with a 2-0 series lead, so a win here and they can pretty much lock away the title going up 3-0.

San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks

The adjustments we predicted in Game 2 simply didn’t happen despite a small bump in Dylan Harper’s minutes, and as a result the Spurs are now down 2-0 with their championship aspirations on the brink of extinction.

The experience of the Knicks has stood out in the first two games. What’s in store when they head to Madison Square Garden for their first home game of the NBA Finals?

Leg 1 – Dylan Harper Over 13.5 Points

Another series for the Spurs and guess what, Dylan Harper once again leads them for plus-minus and net rating.

Harper’s minutes did increase in Game 2 to 32 minutes, and he has to play more as one of their more reliable offensive threats.

The rookie has only played 30+ minutes on three occasions, but averages 17.3 points per game when he’s done so. With the offensive troubles Castle is having this series, I think we’ll see a lot more Harper to try and keep this series alive.

Leg 2 – Devin Vassell 4+ Rebounds

Vassell is clearly a player Coach Johnson trusts for the Spurs for his shooting and defense, so he’ll keep playing big minutes.

Surprisingly, Vassell’s rebounding has also been enormous this series, recording nine rebounds in each of the first two games.

Over his last 15 playoff games, Vassell is averaging 5.1 rebounds and has hit 4+ in 12 of those games.

Leg 3 – Karl-Anthony Towns 15+ Points

I think he might be leading the Finals MVP race despite the odds in Brunson’s favour, due to his defensive efforts on Wemby plus what he’s doing on the offensive end.

KAT is averaging 19.5 points this series and is really attacking Wemby off the dribble, hitting 15+ points in four of his last five games.

Foul trouble might be the only thing stopping him, but I’m happy to back him in at Madison Square Garden.

Same Game Multi

Harper Over 13.5 Points / Vassell 4+ Rebounds / Towns 15+ Points = $3.40

Value Bet

Julian Champagnie 15+ Points @ $4.00

Has played really well on the road for the Spurs these playoffs.

Julian Champagnie enters Game 3 off the back of hitting 20+ points in his last two road games in OKC.

The sharp-shooter has hit 15+ points in three of his last five road games, and was great in Game 1 with 16 points, before a fairly quiet Game 2. The Spurs will need him to fire to have any chance.

The Knicks caused a Game 1 upset off the back of a big last quarter, led by Jalen Brunson. Will the Spurs bounce back in Game 2 to even up the series?

New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs

Big win by the Knicks in Game 1, with a 23-point second half swing.

The Spurs will make adjustments, and based on that last quarter they’ll need to change a fair bit to square the series one-apiece. A loss, and they can consider the NBA Championship all but gone.

Leg 1 – Spurs -6.5

When the away team has pinched Game 1 these playoffs, we’ve seen a response from the home team. It happened with Detroit and Orlando in the first round, the Spurs against Minnesota in the second round, as well as with OKC and against the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals.

The Spurs need to make some major adjustments, rotation regarding Dylan Harper, matchups as well as where Wemby catches the ball offensively, while the Knicks are in a strong position where they can save their potential adjustments and not show their hand.

As a result, San Antonio should win Game 2 easily.

Leg 2 – Stephon Castle Over 4.5 Rebounds

Only averaging 5.1 rebounds in the playoffs, but he’s a proven rebounding guard across his short career and recent form is strong.

Stephon Castle is averaging 6 rebounds from his last nine games, covering this line in eight of those, including recording eight rebounds in Game 1.

Think we’ll see another low scoring contest, so plenty of rebounding chances for Castle.

Leg 3 – Dylan Harper 10+ Points

They simply have to play him more in Game 2. Harper was instrumental for the Spurs with 16 points and 8 rebounds, but only played 28 minutes recording a plus-minus of -5.

That being said, only ten of those minutes were with both Castle and Wemby where the trio were +7 as a three-man lineup. Adjustments need to be made where these three players are playing close to 20 minutes together on floor.

Harper is averaging 15.3 points from his last three games, all of those playing less than 30 minutes. When playing 25+ minutes, Harper is averaging 16.8 points per game this post-season from a ten-game sample, hitting double digits in nine of those games. He is playing 25+ minutes in Game 2.

Same Game Multi

Spurs -6.5 / Harper 10+ Points / Castle Over 4.5 Rebounds = $4.20

Value Bet

No issue getting them up for Miles McBride. He’s attempting 4.9 triples per game from his last 13 playoff games, and in his last two games including Game 1 he’s attempted 5.5 triples.

The three-point percentage isn’t too bad either, going at 42.3% over those 13 games, averaging 2.1 makes.

McBride knocked down two triples in Game 1, and with the unpredictability of Landry Shamet, he could see himself in an extended role in Game 2 playing around that 20-minute mark.

Miles McBride Over 1.5 3PM @ $2.45

The NBA Finals have arrived. The New York Knicks are back to the Finals for the first time since 1999, where ironically they lost to the Spurs. What does Game 1 have in store?

New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs advanced in a gruelling seven-game series against the defending champs.

They’ll now face an extremely well rested New York Knicks, who swept the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals, which felt like an eternity ago.

San Antonio host Game 1, so how will this play out?

Leg 1 – OG Anunoby 15+ Points

Aside from the hamstring injury in the 76ers series, OG Anunoby has been outstanding for New York in the playoffs.

Averaging 19.7 points per game in the post-season, Anunoby has hit 15+ points in nine of his 12 playoff games. Two of those misses were due to rust coming back from his hamstring injury, but he rectified that in his last two games of the Cleveland series with 21 and 17 in limited minutes.

The rest would have done OG wonders, and he should be hitting this line.

Leg 2 – Dylan Harper Over 17.5 PRA

With De’Aaron Fox really struggling this series, both physically and in output, Harper becomes instrumental to the success of this Spurs outfit.

Harper had some quiet games in the OKC series and appeared to be playing banged up, but he finished big in Games 6 and 7, averaging 15 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists.

I expect Harper to continue playing a big role for San Antonio, and he should easily be covering this line.

Leg 3 – Landry Shamet 1+ 3PM

Landry Shamet produced some big games off the bench for New York in the Eastern Conference Finals, and was playing clutch minutes in their rotation.

Shamet averaged 19.7 minutes per game in the Cavs series, and hit at least one triple in three of the four games.

Making four three-pointers in the last two games of the series, I expect him to carry that momentum and confidence into the NBA Finals.

Same Game Multi

Anunoby 15+ Points / Harper Over 17.5 PRA / Shamet 1+ 3PM = $4.00

Value Bet

Hart is averaging 11.4 points and 8.6 rebounds per game this post-season, and has hovered around double doubles in his last six games.

His last double double was Game 3 against the 76ers, and since then he’s had two nine-rebound games, plus a 6 and 11 game in Game 4 against the Cavs in just 23 minutes.

Last time Hart played the Spurs in the regular season he finished with 10 points and 10 rebounds, and in the NBA Cup Final he had 11 and 8. Will go very close at a price.

Josh Hart Double Double @ $3.92

Game 7 baby! What a Western Conference Finals series it’s been. Will the Thunder be too good on their home court, or will the Spurs cause the upset and advance to the NBA Finals?

San Antonio Spurs @ OKC Thunder

The Spurs did some genuine damage to OKC in Game 6, and with the Thunder throwing Jalen Williams into the mix to clinch the series on the road, it resulted in him missing Game 7.

Can San Antonio back it up in OKC, or will the Thunder simply be too good and experienced on their home court in what will likely be a defensive, physical contest?

Leg 1 – Alex Caruso 10+ Points

The Thunder are going to need to play a lot of Alex Caruso in this. He has easily got OKC’s best plus-minus for the series at +38, along with their best net rating at +11.

Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell are both out of Game 7, while Lu Dort is a genuine liability, so I think we see McCain, Wallace and Caruso playing 30+ minutes each in this.

Averaging 15.3 points per game this series and hitting 10+ in four of the six games, Caruso’s home games against the Spurs have been huge where he averages 23.3 from those three games.

Leg 2 – Dylan Harper 2+ Assists

Harper has the Spurs’ best net rating this series, along with a really strong plus-minus, just behind Wemby for the Spurs.

The Spurs will need a big game from the rookie, with Fox playing injured and not producing his usual output, so we should see 25+ minutes for Harper in this.

He’s hit 2+ assists in his last eight games, and shouldn’t have any problems doing so again.

Leg 3 – Devin Vassell 2+ Assists

Expect big minutes for Vassell, potentially as much as 38 as he does the defensive job on SGA.

Certainly not known for his playmaking, but Vassell is a strong decision maker for the Spurs on the offensive end, and has recorded 2+ assists in 16 of his 17 post-season games, averaging 2.6 dimes in the playoffs.

Same Game Multi

Caruso 10+ Points / Harper 2+ Assists / Vassell 2+ Assists = $3.10

Value Bet

I think they go right away from Isaiah Hartenstein in Game 7, with his plus-minus when Wemby is on the floor sitting at -43 from the 49 minutes they’ve shared the court together.

Enter Jaylin Williams. His ability to stretch the floor changes OKC’s offensive structure, and he enters Game 7 off the back of recording nine rebounds.

The injection in minutes for Jaylin Williams should see him around the six-rebound mark. Assuming he plays 20+ in Game 7, I like this price on offer.

Jaylin Williams 6+ Rebounds @ $3.25

New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland have been outstanding on their home floor throughout the playoffs, and they’ll need that trend to continue after dropping the opening two games in New York.

The Cavs will still feel they should be returning home with the series tied after blowing a 22-point lead late in Game 1.

Now facing a 0-2 deficit, Game 3 becomes a must-win if Cleveland are to keep their NBA Finals hopes alive.

Leg 1 – Mikal Bridges Over 13.5 Points

Mikal Bridges had a difficult start to the playoffs and struggled badly during the Atlanta series, but his form has improved significantly over the last two weeks.

Bridges is averaging 18.7 points across his last seven games and has cleared this line in six of those appearances.

That includes both games against Cleveland in this series.

The Cavaliers adjusted heavily toward stopping Jalen Brunson in Game 2, repeatedly over-helping and forcing the ball out of his hands.

As a result, Bridges benefited with 19 points while finding more open looks in the half court.

Leg 2 – Jarrett Allen 10+ Points

Jarrett Allen doesn’t need a massive scoring night to clear this line.

The Cleveland centre has scored double-digit points in nine of his last 11 games, with one of the misses coming in a game where he played just 18 minutes.

Allen has now reached 10+ points in five consecutive games and draws a favourable matchup against Karl-Anthony Towns inside.

On Cleveland’s home floor, expect the Cavaliers to establish Allen early around the rim.

Leg 3 – Jalen Brunson 6+ Assists

Cleveland’s defensive strategy in Game 2 created plenty of assist opportunities for Jalen Brunson.

The Knicks star finished with 14 assists as the Cavs repeatedly trapped him and forced the ball into the hands of New York’s secondary scorers.

Brunson isn’t naturally a huge assist producer, but his recent numbers have still been very solid.

Across his last 25 games, he’s averaging 7.5 assists and has recorded 6+ assists in seven of his last eight outings.

Given the Cavs are likely to maintain the same defensive approach, another strong playmaking game looks likely.

Same Game Multi

Bridges Over 13.5 Points / Allen 10+ Points / Brunson 6+ Assists = $3.40

Value Bet

When Cleveland fell behind 2-0 against Detroit earlier this postseason, Donovan Mitchell responded with massive performances on his home court.

He dropped 35 points in Game 3 before backing it up with 43 in Game 4.

Mitchell has now scored 30+ points in six of his last nine home games and has still played well despite Cleveland’s 0-2 deficit in this series.

After averaging 27.5 points across the opening two games against New York, expect Mitchell to take over offensively in Game 3.

Donovan Mitchell 30+ Points @ $2.40

OKC Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs

The Thunder responded strongly in Game 2 to level the series, but now face a major hurdle heading into San Antonio.

Jalen Williams is expected to miss after suffering another hamstring injury, which leaves a significant hole in OKC’s offense and secondary playmaking.

Meanwhile, the Spurs are hopeful both De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper will be available, giving San Antonio a potential edge entering their first home game of the series.

Leg 1 – Victor Wembanyama 14+ Rebounds

Oklahoma City have tried multiple defensive matchups on Wembanyama throughout the series, often landing on Alex Caruso as the primary defender.

While that has helped limit some of Wemby’s scoring efficiency, it has opened the door for him to dominate the glass.

The Spurs superstar has already pulled down 14 offensive rebounds across the first two games and is averaging an absurd 20.5 rebounds for the series.

With San Antonio eager to make a statement at home, expect massive minutes once again for Wembanyama and another huge rebounding performance.

Leg 2 – Jared McCain Over 7.5 Points

Jared McCain continues to prove a brilliant mid-season pickup for Oklahoma City.

The former 76er’s shooting and floor spacing become even more important if Jalen Williams is unavailable.

McCain played 26 minutes in Game 2 and finished with 12 points despite shooting just 4-for-14 from the field.

The volume is what matters here.

He attempted the second most shots for OKC in Game 2, and if he sees similar usage again, clearing this points line should be very achievable.

Leg 3 – Stephon Castle 15+ Points

Castle continues to emerge as one of San Antonio’s most reliable offensive weapons during this playoff run.

The rookie guard backed it up again in Game 2 with 25 points and continues to thrive with the ball in his hands.

Castle has now scored 15+ points in 12 of his last 13 games.

Even if Fox returns, San Antonio are unlikely to move away from the current offensive structure that has worked so effectively throughout the playoffs.

Same Game Multi

Wembanyama 14+ Rebounds / McCain Over 7.5 Points / Castle 15+ Points = $4.20

Value Bet

San Antonio’s defensive approach against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been very clear throughout the opening two games.

The Spurs are aggressively collapsing on every drive, often sending Wembanyama across to force the ball out of SGA’s hands.

That strategy has created plenty of playmaking opportunities.

Gilgeous-Alexander recorded 12 assists in Game 1 and followed it with nine in Game 2.

With Williams likely sidelined, Oklahoma City may rely even more heavily on SGA’s creation, which should continue generating assist chances.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 10+ Assists @ $2.90

San Antonio Spurs vs OKC Thunder

Game 1 between the Spurs and Thunder delivered one of the best playoff games of the season, with San Antonio holding on in double overtime on the road.

Now the pressure shifts to Oklahoma City.

The Thunder must make major adjustments, particularly around generating cleaner offensive looks for MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, while the Spurs face the challenge of managing heavy minutes after several starters pushed beyond 44 minutes in the opener.

Leg 1 – Thunder

Expect a strong response from Oklahoma City after dropping Game 1 at home.

The Thunder should have taken plenty away from the double-overtime loss, and historically these spots tend to favour the higher seed bouncing back hard in Game 2.

San Antonio leaned heavily on their starters in the opener, with five players logging at least 44 minutes.

Teams that steal an early road win in a playoff series will often subtly prioritise Game 3 at home, especially after a physically draining opener like this.

Oklahoma City should come out with far greater urgency and intensity here.

Leg 2 – Chet Holmgren Under 13.5 Points

The Thunder can bounce back without needing a big scoring game from Chet Holmgren.

Victor Wembanyama remains an extremely difficult matchup for Holmgren due to his ability to contest perimeter shots while still protecting the paint.

Across five meetings with San Antonio this season, Holmgren is averaging just 10 points per game.

He has also failed to clear 13.5 points in four straight games against the Spurs, missing double figures in three of those contests.

Unless Oklahoma City drastically changes his role offensively, this still looks like a difficult matchup for him to score efficiently.

Leg 3 – Jalen Williams 15+ Points

Jalen Williams looked like Oklahoma City’s most reliable offensive option in Game 1.

Fresh off a hamstring injury, Williams moved freely and finished with 26 points, consistently attacking gaps in San Antonio’s defence.

While Alex Caruso also had an explosive offensive game, it feels much more sustainable for Williams to maintain this scoring output moving forward.

Williams has scored 15+ points in 16 of his last 20 games, including seven of his last eight.

He should once again play a major role offensively in Game 2.

Same Game Multi

Thunder / Holmgren Under 13.5 Points / Jalen Williams 15+ Points = $3.60

Value Bet

Keldon Johnson could quietly benefit from the physical toll Game 1 placed on San Antonio’s starters.

Johnson played 22 minutes in the opener and there’s a strong chance those minutes increase slightly in Game 2 as the Spurs try to preserve energy for Games 3 and 4 back in San Antonio.

He knocked down three triples in Game 1 and has historically enjoyed this matchup against Oklahoma City.

Johnson also made four threes in the Spurs’ previous meeting with OKC, while earlier this season he had another game where he buried five triples against them.

With defensive attention focused heavily on Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle, Johnson should continue getting quality catch-and-shoot looks from deep.

Keldon Johnson 2+ 3PM @ $3.30

San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves

The Spurs made a huge statement in Game 5 with a dominant performance against Minnesota.

Now the series heads back to Minnesota, but the task facing the Timberwolves looks increasingly difficult. San Antonio completely controlled the tempo last game, while Minnesota’s rotation continues to thin out deeper into the series.

Leg 1 – Spurs

With Oklahoma City already waiting in the Western Conference Finals, the Spurs cannot afford to let this series drift to a Game 7.

Game 5 showed San Antonio are currently the superior side. Minnesota simply don’t have the same depth anymore following Donte DiVincenzo’s season-ending injury.

The Spurs have done an excellent job containing Julius Randle using smaller defenders, while aggressively trapping Anthony Edwards every chance they get.

Game 1 came with some shooting variance, while Game 4 was heavily impacted by Victor Wembanyama’s ejection. Neither scenario feels likely to repeat here.

San Antonio should finish the series on the road.

Leg 2 – Naz Reid Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds

Naz Reid shapes as Minnesota’s best chance of extending this series.

He brings physicality defensively while also stretching the floor offensively, and should continue eating into both Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle’s minutes.

Reid is averaging 21.4 combined points and rebounds this series, but importantly he has cleared this line in both home games.

Across those two games in Minnesota, Reid has averaged 16.5 points and nine rebounds.

Expect his minutes to push into the low 30s again in what should be a more competitive contest than Game 5.

Leg 3 – Ayo Dosunmu 10+ Points

The Spurs appear to have found a blueprint defensively by trapping Anthony Edwards aggressively and forcing other Timberwolves players to beat them.

That should once again open scoring opportunities for Ayo Dosunmu.

Dosunmu is averaging 16.2 points per game this postseason and has scored 10+ points in seven of his nine playoff games.

One miss came when he exited early through injury, while the other came in just 22 minutes.

Minnesota’s shortened rotation means Dosunmu should play 30+ minutes again, and when he gets that level of court time he generally clears this line comfortably.

Same Game Multi

Spurs / Reid Over 19.5 PR / Dosunmu 10+ Points = $3.75

Value Bet

Dylan Harper continues to show exactly why he was selected second overall in last year’s NBA Draft.

His scoring gets plenty of attention, but his rebounding ability for a guard his size has been just as impressive.

Harper is averaging 6.4 rebounds per game this series, including 10 boards in Game 5 despite playing only 25 minutes.

His per-36 rebound numbers in the series sit at 9.3 rebounds per game.

Harper has recorded 6+ rebounds in three of the five games this series, and in San Antonio’s three wins he is averaging seven rebounds per contest.

Expect his minutes to once again sit in the high 20s, giving him another strong chance to impact the glass.

Dylan Harper 6+ Rebounds @ $3.50

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons

We’re back in Detroit for Game 5, with the series locked at 2-2 and the home team yet to lose.

The concern is Cleveland’s road form. The Cavaliers enter this having won the last two games, but they are still yet to record a road win from five attempts this post-season.

Can they sneak Game 5 and head back to Cleveland with a chance to book their place in the Eastern Conference Finals, or will Detroit again prove too strong at home?

Leg 1 – Pistons -3.5

The Cavaliers have been so poor on the road this post-season that it’s hard to see them flipping the script in Game 5.

Across five road playoff games, Cleveland are 0-5 and have failed to cover the spread in all five.

Detroit, meanwhile, have covered in four of their last five home games this post-season and beat Cleveland by 10 points in both Games 1 and 2 of this series.

Evan Mobley, James Harden and Max Strus all have net ratings worse than -14 across the two road games in this matchup, making this a huge ask for the Cavs.

Leg 2 – Jalen Duren 8+ Rebounds

The last two games have been concerning for Duren, who was so dominant during the regular season but has struggled at times in the playoffs.

That said, his home numbers this post-season are far stronger than his road numbers.

In Detroit, Duren is averaging 10.3 rebounds across six playoff games, hitting 8+ in his last five and 10+ in his last three.

Expect a bounce back from the Pistons centre, at least on the glass.

Leg 3 – Dean Wade Over 2.5 Rebounds

Wade is averaging 24 minutes per game this post-season, and while his minutes dipped slightly in Games 3 and 4, he still has a role to play for Cleveland.

He also owns the best road playoff net rating of any Cavalier this post-season, one of only two Cleveland players with a positive mark.

Wade has recorded over 2.5 rebounds in 10 of his 11 playoff games, averaging four boards per game.

As one of Cleveland’s more reliable road performers, he should see enough minutes to clear this line again.

Same Game Multi

Pistons -3.5 / Duren 8+ Rebounds / Wade Over 2.5 Rebounds = $4.00

Value Bet – Jaylon Tyson 4+ Rebounds @ $4.50

With Strus, Harden, Mobley and Merrill all struggling badly on the road in this series, Jaylon Tyson could see more opportunity in Game 5.

He played just eight minutes in Game 4, but his rebounding profile remains strong.

Tyson is averaging eight rebounds per 36 minutes this post-season and has impacted the glass in road playoff games.

Across five road games, he is averaging 4.2 rebounds in 18.4 minutes per game, hitting 4+ rebounds in four of those matches, including each of his last four.

Kenny Atkinson may need to roll the dice with Tyson, and if he gets the minutes, this is a strong price for 4+ boards.