Denver Nuggets @ OKC Thunder

Denver secured a big win over the in-form Celtics last start, although Jamal Murray exited early due to illness.

The Thunder have won five of their last seven despite being severely undermanned. Now, SGA, Holmgren, Hartenstein and Caruso are off the injury report as OKC looks to build momentum heading into the stretch run.

LEG 1 – Cason Wallace Over 8.5 Points

Confidence is everything, and the recent absence of OKC’s stars has given Cason Wallace extended opportunity with the ball in his hands.

Even with SGA returning, I expect his minutes to be managed under 30. With Jalen Williams still sidelined, there’s no reason Wallace can’t continue scoring in the mid-teens.

He’s coming off back-to-back 27 and 20-point games, and dropped 27 on Denver in their last meeting — with SGA in the lineup.

LEG 2 – Julian Strawther 10+ Points

Strawther has been solid when starting for Denver, providing an additional scoring punch.

He’s averaging 15.6 points per game as a starter this season and has hit double figures in seven of eight starts.

LEG 3 – Nikola Jokic 12+ Rebounds

Jokic’s rebounding numbers have been elite.

The three-time MVP is averaging 13.6 rebounds across his last 14 games, clearing 12+ boards in 11 of those.

Without Gordon and Watson, Jokic’s rebound rate rises roughly 5% above his season average. Expect another dominant performance on the glass.

Same Game Multi

Wallace Over 8.5 Points / Strawther 10+ Points / Jokic 12+ Rebounds = $4.20

Value Bet – Cason Wallace 15+ Points @ $6.25

Can Wallace keep riding the wave?

With Jalen Williams still out and SGA likely to have managed minutes, the offensive opportunities remain there.

He’s coming off consecutive 20+ point games and scored 27 against Denver in their last meeting. At this price, the upside is hard to ignore.

Boston Celtics @ Denver Nuggets

The Celtics continue to go from strength to strength, winning nine of their last ten games while Jayson Tatum edges closer to a return.

Denver, meanwhile, has hit a lull with injuries disrupting their rotation. The Nuggets have won just three of their last nine games, and with Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson still sidelined, it won’t get any easier — even at home.

LEG 1 – Celtics +4.5

Boston has been excellent on the road this season, owning the second-best road cover rate in the NBA at 66.7%. They’ve been even better as road underdogs, covering seven of ten games in that role.

Although they enter on no rest, they’ve still covered at a 66.7% clip in back-to-back situations this season.

Denver is navigating a tough stretch without Gordon and Watson, their primary defensive wings. The Nuggets have covered just twice in their last nine home games and have won only three of their last eight overall. This is a tough matchup against an elite Boston side.

LEG 2 – Jaylen Brown 6+ Rebounds

Brown had a brief dip on the glass with just two rebounds against the Knicks and four against the Bulls, but he’s responded strongly.

He’s well rested after sitting out Wednesday’s game against Phoenix. In his last two appearances, Brown grabbed eight rebounds against the Lakers and 15 against the Warriors.

Across his last 23 games, Brown is averaging eight rebounds and has cleared 6+ boards in 20 of them. He had seven rebounds in the previous meeting with Denver — expect a similar output here.

LEG 3 – Cam Johnson 10+ Points

It was a choice between Johnson and Christian Braun for this leg, but Johnson gets the nod.

He’s averaging 12 points per game without Gordon and Watson this season, hitting double figures in five of eight games in that scenario.

The matchup is more favourable for Johnson than Braun, and his minutes have increased, logging 35+ in two of the last three games.

Same Game Multi

Celtics +4.5 / Brown 6+ Rebounds / Johnson 10+ Points = $4.20

Value Bet – Bruce Brown 10+ Points @ $3.20

Bruce Brown has quietly been solid for Denver of late, and this 10+ points price looks generous.

His minutes are trending upward, and he’s a more reliable option than Strawther in this depleted Nuggets rotation. Brown is averaging 10.1 points across the eight games he’s played without Gordon and Watson this season.

He’s reached double figures in six of those eight games. The only misses came in a blowout against Portland where he played under 20 minutes, and a tough matchup against Cleveland.

Houston Rockets @ New York Knicks

What should we expect when the Rockets head into Madison Square Garden?

The Knicks have been wildly inconsistent. They were smashed by Detroit, bounced back emphatically against Boston, suffered a shock home loss to Indiana, crushed the 76ers, and then fell again to the Pistons last start.

Houston has won three of its last four games, but the performances haven’t been particularly convincing. This is a proper test on the road.

LEG 1 – Knicks -3.5

The Knicks have been one of the strongest home teams in the league this season.

They hold a 21-8 record at Madison Square Garden and boast the best home cover rate in the NBA at 65.5%.

Houston, meanwhile, has failed to cover in seven of its last eight games. There are genuine concerns about the Rockets’ current form.

LEG 2 – Alperen Sengun Under 17.5 Points

Sengun looks out of form, and the Rockets have struggled to find consistency since Steven Adams went down.

Over his last nine games, Sengun is averaging 16.7 points per game. However, that includes a 39-point outlier. Remove that performance and he’s averaging just 13.9 points across the other eight games.

He has cleared this line only twice in his last nine outings. It doesn’t get easier against a Knicks defence that has restricted centres to 28% below league-average scoring over the last month, the toughest matchup in the NBA for the position during that span.

LEG 3 – Karl-Anthony Towns Double Double

Rebounding has been a strength for KAT all season.

He has recorded a double-double in 15 of his last 19 games, including eight straight.

Across his last ten, Towns is averaging 16.8 points and 13.9 rebounds. Against a Houston team that hasn’t controlled the glass as well since Adams’ injury, expect him to dominate again.

Same Game Multi

Knicks -3.5 / Sengun Under 17.5 Points / Towns Double Double = $4.20

Value Bet – Landry Shamet 3+ 3PM @ $3.00

With OG Anunoby back, Landry Shamet has slotted nicely into the rotation, particularly in the absence of Miles McBride.

Shamet has played 20+ minutes in five games alongside Anunoby and Hart without McBride this season. In all five, he’s hit 3+ threes, while averaging a very healthy 15.4 points per game.

For 10+ points he’s priced at $2.20, but the 15+ at $5.80 is also worth a small play, along with backing his 3+ triples.

LA Clippers @ LA Lakers

The Clippers caused a huge upset last start, led by new recruit Bennedict Mathurin, taking down Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets.

They now head down the road to the Staples Center to face the Lakers, who are expected to welcome back Luka Doncic.

The Lakers have played 54 games this season, but LeBron, Luka and Reaves have shared the floor in just ten of them. Can the trio deliver a statement performance?

LEG 1 – LeBron James Under 20.5 Points

Luka, Reaves and LeBron are expected to suit up together for just the 11th time this season. One of them is likely to sacrifice shot volume, and I expect it to be LeBron.

James is averaging 18.4 points in the ten games the trio have played together, clearing 20.5 points in just three of those.

The Clippers have restricted power forwards well over the last month, holding the position 12% below league-average scoring. Expect the Lakers’ backcourt to carry more of the offensive load.

LEG 2 – LeBron James 6+ Assists

While the scoring may dip, the assist numbers don’t.

LeBron’s assists increase slightly when playing alongside Luka and Reaves, averaging 7.2 per game in those matchups.

Across the ten games they’ve played together, LeBron has recorded 6+ assists on eight occasions and enters this matchup off four straight double-digit assist performances.

LEG 3 – John Collins 6+ Rebounds

John Collins has taken on greater rebounding responsibility for the Clippers following the departures of Zubac and Harden.

He’s averaging 7.3 rebounds across his last nine games, clearing 6+ in eight of those, including 12 against the Nuggets last start.

Someone has to control the glass for the Clippers. It won’t be Brook Lopez.

Same Game Multi

LeBron Under 20.5 Points / LeBron 6+ Assists / Collins 6+ Rebounds = $3.60

Value Bet – LA Lakers 11+ @ $2.50

Assuming Luka is cleared to play, this shapes as a strong bounce-back spot for the Lakers.

The Clippers enter on no rest after an emotional upset win over Denver, with their core rotation all logging 29+ minutes.

The Lakers are elite front-runners at home. Among teams that have played 10+ home games as favourites this season, LA holds the best cover rate at 70.6%. If they get rolling early, this could blow out quickly, especially if Kawhi’s minutes are managed.

The All Star Weekend is upon us for season 2025-26, with a new-look format designed to spice things up. What can we expect from the All Star Game, and who will take out the Dunk and Three-Point Contest titles?

All Star Weekend Best Bets

There’s plenty of value on offer this weekend, largely because there’s so much uncertainty surrounding this edition of All Star Weekend.

We’ve got four extremely low-profile players in the Dunk Contest, with very little sample size to work from. There are fresh faces in the Three-Point Contest, although they’ve dragged Damian Lillard back despite recovering from a ruptured Achilles. Then there’s the All Star Game itself.

This brand new concept could be a smash hit or another complete disaster for the NBA. Unfortunately, I’m leaning towards the latter. That said, there’s still value to be found.

Dunk Contest

Jase Richardson @ $4.25

There’s a sense of nostalgia with Jase Richardson following in the footsteps of his dad, Jason, who won this event back in 2003.

Being an explosive guard will definitely work in Richardson’s favour.

He’s got a deep back-catalog of Dunk Contest dunks from his high school days, and there’s no doubt he’ll roll out a Golden State Warriors throwback for bonus points.

Three-Point Contest

Jamal Murray @ $6.50

This will be Jamal Murray’s first appearance in the Three-Point Contest, but don’t let that deter you. Tyler Herro won as a first-time entrant last year, and eight of the last 15 winners were competing for the first time.

Murray fits the profile perfectly. He’s shooting 43.2% from deep on 7.5 attempts per game this season, placing him squarely in the historical sweet spot for volume and efficiency. At 28 years old, he’s right in the prime-age window where the median winner has sat over the last 15 years.

We’ve seen Murray hit huge shots in the playoffs for Denver time and time again. He won’t be fazed by the moment, and at this price he’s well worth backing.

All Star Game

USA Stars @ $3.00

It’s hard to build a genuine analytical case around such an unusual format, but I’m leaning towards the USA Stars led by Anthony Edwards.

They hold a clear size advantage over USA Stripes, who feature older stars such as Durant and LeBron but no genuine bigs. As for Team World, I’m not convinced they’ll care enough. We’ve seen Luka and Jokic treat these games lightly in the past, and Doncic won’t even take the floor due to injury.

The USA Stars have enough competitiveness between Edwards and Booker, plus the athleticism of Johnson and Maxey, to capitalise if teams decide to take this even remotely seriously for a quarter or two.

All Star Game MVP

Anthony Edwards @ $14.00

Who scores the most for the winning team? It was a coin flip between Anthony Edwards and Tyrese Maxey, but I couldn’t ignore the price on Ant-Man.

If anyone is going to take over, get buckets and play defence in this format, it’s Edwards. If he leads his team into the final, there’s every chance he’s on the floor the entire time with the ball in his hands, playing ultra-aggressive.

I’m genuinely surprised to see the Timberwolves star sitting ninth in the betting. If anyone is going to care about this All Star Game, it’s Ant.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers

Memphis completely blew up their roster prior to the trade deadline — and didn’t Jock Landale let them know about it, dropping 26 in his Hawks debut.

Ja Morant is still technically on the roster, but we’re highly unlikely to see him again this season, while a number of Memphis players are being rested for this trip to Portland.

The Trail Blazers have been poor of late, dropping six straight, but they couldn’t possibly let this slip against Memphis’ second unit.

LEG 1 – Deni Avdija 20+ Points

Portland’s All-Star has had a couple of quiet games, and his points line has dropped as a result.

Avdija went on an absolute tear prior to the last two outings, hitting 20+ points in 15 of 17 games while averaging 26.9 per game across that stretch.

Against an undermanned and undersized Memphis lineup, this shapes as a bounce-back spot for Deni.

LEG 2 – Donovan Clingan Over 24.5 PR

Speaking of undersized Memphis, it’s easy to see Donovan Clingan posting a monster line here.

The Grizzlies are without Santi Aldama and have traded away Jock Landale and Jaren Jackson Jr, which means 6’9 Taylor Hendricks is likely to start at centre.

Clingan has been dominating the glass over the past three weeks, averaging 13.2 rebounds to go with 12 points per game. He recently posted 14 and 20 against the Wizards — something similar is well within reach.

LEG 3 – Cam Spencer 10+ Points

Spencer moved to the bench with Ty Jerome returning and posting big numbers across three games, but Jerome is being managed here which opens the door again.

Spencer endured a slight lean patch, but has bounced back with 16 against the Timberwolves followed by 20 against the Kings. Without Jerome in the lineup, he’s good for double digits.

Same Game Multi

Clingan Over 24.5 PR / Avdija 20+ Points / Spencer 10+ Points = $3.75

Value Bet

Donovan Clingan 16+ Rebounds @ $4.20

Clingan is averaging 13.7 rebounds across his last eight games, clearing 16+ boards three times while also posting two 15-rebound performances.

The Grizzlies rank as the fourth-easiest team in the NBA over the past month for centres to rebound against, conceding boards to bigs 12% above league average.

With Memphis lacking a true centre after trades and player management, it’s worth laddering Clingan’s rebound line up toward 20 — he hit that mark against Washington four games ago.

OKC Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs

It feels like these two teams are playing each other every week, and I’m here for it. This will be the fifth time the Thunder and Spurs have matched up this season, including the NBA Cup Semi Final and the Christmas Day game.

With these sides filling the top two spots in the West, will it be the Spurs who come away with another win after leading the season series 3-1 so far?

LEG 1 — Under 225.5 Total Points

We’ve now got a big enough sample size this season to understand the scoring profile between these two teams, who meet for the fifth time due to their NBA Cup Semi Final matchup. It’s well below the total currently set for this game.

Three of the four previous meetings have gone under 225.5 total points. While the average sits at 224, that figure is inflated by a blowout outlier in their second matchup where the total reached 240.

LEG 2 — Jaylin Williams 4+ Rebounds

Isaiah Hartenstein is expected to rest in this game, while Jalen Williams remains sidelined, which should see Jaylin Williams step into a larger role at power forward.

Across the 14 games Jaylin Williams has played without Hartenstein this season, he’s hit 4+ rebounds in nine of them. One of the misses came against Cleveland two weeks ago where he played just seven minutes.

LEG 3 — Chet Holmgren Under 16.5 Points

Chet has genuinely struggled against Wembanyama and the Spurs all season.

He covered this line in their first meeting with 17 points, but Wemby played only 20 minutes in that game.

In the other three matchups, Holmgren has scored 7, 10 and 8 points, averaging just 10.5 points per game against San Antonio this season.

Same Game Multi

Under 225.5 Total Points / Jaylin Williams 4+ Rebounds / Holmgren Under 16.5 Points = $4.00

VALUE BET

Stephon Castle 20+ Points @ $3.15

Castle has been slightly down on output recently, failing to hit 20+ points in his last eight games, but he’s been San Antonio’s most consistent performer against OKC this season.

Last year’s Rookie of the Year is averaging 21.25 points per game against the Thunder and has cleared 20+ in three of the four matchups. In the one miss, Castle finished on 19.

Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets

The Mavericks enjoyed a nice run for a stretch, but they’ve now dropped their last three games as they face one of the NBA’s toughest road assignments.

The Rockets will be disappointed with how they dropped the San Antonio game two starts back, but were solid enough against a depleted Atlanta Hawks outfit.

Off the back of a 49-point performance from Cooper Flagg last start, can the Mavericks put up a challenge here?

LEG 1 – Naji Marshall 15+ Points

Naji Marshall has enjoyed a great stretch for the Mavericks in the absence of Anthony Davis.

Marshall is averaging 19.8 points over his last 11 games, hitting 15+ points in 10 of those contests.

LEG 2 – Max Christie 10+ Points

Another Maverick who has stepped up due to injuries and put together a really strong month.

Max Christie is averaging 17.6 points across his last 13 games, reaching double figures in 12 of those outings.

He should continue to play solid minutes, firming his spot in Jason Kidd’s rotation.

LEG 3 – Tari Eason 6+ Rebounds

Tari Eason continues to produce strong rebounding numbers for the Rockets, locking himself into Houston’s starting lineup.

With Steven Adams now out for the remainder of the season, Eason’s minutes should hover around 30 per game moving forward.

Over his last 11 games, Eason is averaging 7.7 rebounds and has recorded 6+ boards in 10 of those contests.

Same Game Multi

Marshall 15+ Points / Christie 10+ Points / Eason 6+ Rebounds = $3.50

VALUE BET

Tari Eason Double Double @ $8.50

Eason has recorded just two double-doubles over his last 11 games, but he’s consistently hovering around the mark, making the $8.50 price look well overs.

Eason gets a great matchup against a Dallas lineup conceding rebounds to small forwards at an 11% above-average rate over the past month, with one of his two double-doubles coming against the Mavericks the last time these teams met.

Toronto Raptors @ Orlando Magic

The Magic are now at desperation levels as they try to salvage their season at the halfway point. It was a good win over divisional rivals Miami, but there’s still plenty of work to do with Atlanta and Charlotte both pushing to make a run.

As for the Raptors, they remain inside the top four in the East, winning four of their last five games, including an upset victory in OKC.

Can they record another road win here?

LEG 1 – Anthony Black 15+ Points

With Franz Wagner sidelined again and Jalen Suggs on restricted minutes, we should continue to see increased usage for Anthony Black.

Across Black’s last 18 games without Wagner, he’s averaging 19.4 points per game and has cleared 15+ points in 14 of those outings.

He also dropped 27 points against the Raptors when these sides met earlier in the season.

LEG 2 – Scottie Barnes 15+ Points

Scottie Barnes is averaging 20.3 points per game across his last 14 appearances, making the 15+ line a strong SGM anchor.

Barnes has cleared this mark in 13 of his last 14 games, failing only against the league’s best defensive unit, the Thunder, two starts ago.

LEG 3 – Immanuel Quickley 4+ Rebounds

Quickley averages 4.4 rebounds per game this season, but it’s his recent form on the glass that makes this line appealing.

The point guard is averaging 5.6 rebounds across his last eight games, clearing 4+ boards in six of those, including the last four straight.

He grabbed 11 rebounds against the Thunder two starts back and eight against Portland, showing strong instincts around the rim lately.

Same Game Multi

Black 15+ Points / Barnes 15+ Points / Quickley 4+ Rebounds = $3.30

VALUE BET

Collin Murray-Boyles 8+ Rebounds @ $2.50

The rookie has slotted into the Raptors’ starting lineup as an undersized centre and has produced some impressive rebounding performances.

While his minutes have fluctuated between 22 and 28 per game, he’s shown the ability to rack up boards quickly.

Murray-Boyles is averaging nine rebounds across his last 12 games where he’s played at least 24.7 minutes. This includes a 12-rebound effort against Orlando last time out, where he played just 25 minutes. The 10+ rebounds line at $4.70 is also worth a small look.

San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets

The Spurs will be looking for redemption after falling to the Rockets just last week. They remain second in the Western Conference with a 31-15 record, while Houston sit close behind at 28-16.

The Rockets have won five of their last six games after enduring a short lull while Alperen Sengun was sidelined, and will be aiming to beat their division rival for the second time in two weeks.

LEG 1 – Alperen Sengun Over 18.5 Points

Averaging 21.5 points per game this season, this is a low line for Alperen Sengun, likely influenced by the Wemby factor.

Sengun scored 20 against the Spurs last week and has covered this number consistently. If you remove the game he left injured, Sengun has scored 19+ points in 16 of his last 20 appearances.

Having covered this line in both meetings with San Antonio this season, he should be able to do so again.

LEG 2 – Tari Eason 6+ Rebounds

With Steven Adams out for an extended period, Houston’s rotation has shortened, creating more opportunity for Tari Eason.

Eason is averaging 7.9 rebounds across his last ten games and has hit 6+ boards in nine of those.

He grabbed six rebounds in just 19 minutes against the Spurs last time out, with his minutes expected to push closer to 28 here.

LEG 3 – Stephon Castle 6+ Assists

Assist numbers have been a pleasant surprise for Stephon Castle this season, and he’s produced big totals against Houston.

Castle is averaging 7.2 assists per game this year, with that figure increasing to 7.5 when playing alongside Fox and Wembanyama.

He’s cleared 6+ assists in six of his last seven games and has recorded eight and 13 assists in two meetings with the Rockets this season.

Same Game Multi

Sengun Over 18.5 Points / Eason 6+ Rebounds / Castle 6+ Assists = $4.20

Value Bet

Julian Champagnie 15+ Points @ $3.40

The Spurs small forward has stepped up in the absence of Devin Vassell, scoring 15+ points in two of his last three games.

More importantly, he’s torched Houston this season. Champagnie is averaging 24.5 points across two games against the Rockets, scoring 20+ in both, including a 27-point outing just last week.

The safer 15+ option looks strong, but at $9.25 it’s also worth considering another 20+ performance against this matchup.