New York Knicks @ Orlando Magic

This will be the fourth time the Knicks and Magic have faced off this season despite the season being only about seven weeks in, so we should have a decent understanding of what to expect.

The Magic currently lead the head-to-head 2-1, but it was the Knicks who won their matchup a week ago in a low-scoring affair.

Expect another low-scoring contest here with high-intensity defence on both ends and plenty of starter minutes for both teams.

LEG 1 – OG Anunoby 4+ Rebounds

Minutes were back up post-injury last start, with Anunoby playing 36 in the NBA Cup Quarter Final against the Raptors.

When OG plays 30+ minutes, he rebounds the ball well and consistently. From the ten games he’s played 30+ minutes this season, he has averaged 6 rebounds per game and has hit 4+ rebounds in nine of those ten games.

Should play 30+ minutes again, especially with shortened rotations due to both McBride and Shamet missing.

LEG 2 – Desmond Bane 20+ Points

Exploded against the Heat last start — the first full game he played without Franz.

Bane has had some huge games for Orlando of late, scoring 37 points in three of the last six games and averaging just under 25 over that stretch.

Averaged 23.1 points per game when Banchero was missing, so he clearly thrives as the number two offensive option.

LEG 3 – Anthony Black Under 4.5 Assists

I’m calling last game an outlier for Anthony Black, where he had 7 assists against the Heat.

Prior to that game he averaged 4.6 assists across his last 14 appearances and covered 4.5 assists in just three of those games.

The Knicks won’t make it easy for Black — they’re the second-best team in the NBA over the last month at restricting shooting guards in assists, conceding 21% below average. I also expect the majority of the usage to come from Suggs, Banchero and Bane in this NBA Cup Semi Final.

SAME GAME MULTI

Anunoby 4+ Rebounds / Bane 20+ Points / Black Under 4.5 Assists = $4.33

VALUE BET

Jalen Suggs 20+ Points @ 2.45

Dropped 26 on the Knicks back on November 22, and with Banchero yet to find his rhythm since returning from injury, it could mean another big night for the Orlando backcourt.

Suggs has scored 20+ points in three of his last four games and is running at 22.5 points per 36 minutes over his last nine.

Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons

The Pistons keep rolling with a 19-5 record and a clean bill of health, going 11-deep with more capable players waiting at the end of the bench for their chance.

As for the Hawks, they’re the complete opposite. Without Trae and Porzingis, their depth is really being tested and although their starting group is still strong, there’s not much else they can turn to.

That being said, when the Hawks are on they’re very capable of causing an upset led by Jalen Johnson.

LEG 1 – Jalen Duren Under 18.5 Points

Surprisingly, Atlanta is the most difficult team in the NBA for centres to score against, restricting bigs to 22% below average — likely due to their length across multiple positions — so this doesn’t bode well for Jalen Duren.

The Pistons centre stormed into Most Improved calculations early in the season, but he has slowed down in a big way. He’s averaging just 15.4 points over the last seven games, covering 18.5 points only once. When Detroit is at full strength, Duren’s season average drops from 18.8 points to 16.4 points, with just a 20% coverage rate.

LEG 2 – Jalen Johnson Over 23.5 Points

No Trae and Porzingis means Jalen Johnson goes crazy.

Johnson has played eight games without the pair, and his numbers explode in every category — especially scoring.

He averages 29.8 points per game from those eight games and has hit 25+ points in all eight. Should see another monster outing from the athletic forward.

LEG 3 – Tobias Harris 10+ Points

Not overly flashy, but Tobias Harris is reliably someone who will score double digits each game.

Harris has hit this in 86% of his games this season, and on the two occasions he missed, he finished on 9 points.

Even with a potential minutes hit due to Detroit’s depth, Harris should still find his 10.

SAME GAME MULTI

Duren Under 18.5 Points / Johnson Over 23.5 Points / Harris 10+ Points = $4.00

VALUE BET

Nickeil Alexander-Walker 5+ 3PM @ $4.30

When Trae and Porzingis are missing, Alexander-Walker has also benefited alongside Johnson, averaging 24.1 points per game.

NAW is averaging 3.3 triples from those nine games, but his recent form is even more impressive — hitting 5+ in three of his last five.

This includes knocking down 6 last time Atlanta faced the Pistons, finishing with 26 points, so there’s no reason why he can’t catch fire again.

San Antonio Spurs @ LA Lakers

The Lakers have crept into second place in the West with a 17-6 record and will host the Spurs in this NBA Cup Quarter Final.

San Antonio has also been rock solid this season at 16-7, which is impressive considering they have barely played with their full roster due to Fox missing the start of the season, followed by extended absences for Wemby and Castle.

Will the experienced Lakers defend home court to advance to the Semi Finals in Vegas, or will it be this young Spurs outfit?

LEG 1 – Luka Doncic 30+ Points

Luka has scored 30+ points in his last eight games, and this is a great matchup for him against the Spurs.

San Antonio is the easiest team in the NBA over the last month for point guards to score against, conceding at 21% above league average.

If the Lakers win this, they head to Vegas, so Luka won’t be rested in this one.

LEG 2 – Dylan Harper 10+ Points

Absolute jet. Dylan Harper is averaging 13.5 points per game this season coming off the bench for the Spurs, and despite the return of Castle last game he posted a career-high 22 points.

Harper has hit 10+ points in 85% of his games this season, and since returning from injury he is scoring at 22.9 points per 36 minutes.

Should see 20+ minutes again off the back of a breakout performance.

LEG 3 – Deandre Ayton 8+ Rebounds

Rebounding numbers remain strong for Deandre Ayton, who is averaging 8.8 per game this season.

Even though LeBron is back for the Lakers, Ayton has actually posted better rebounding numbers when playing alongside both LeBron and Luka this season, with his average jumping to 9.2 over a five-game sample and hitting 8+ in four of those games.

SAME GAME MULTI

Doncic 30+ Points / Harper 10+ Points / Ayton 8+ Rebounds = $3.20

VALUE BET

Luka Doncic 40+ @ $3.80

As mentioned earlier, the Spurs are the easiest team for point guards to score against over the last month.

Last time Luka faced the Spurs he scored 35 points, and with a bit more on the line in an NBA Cup Quarter Final we should see him do serious damage here, especially in the first quarter.

Doncic averages 14.8 first quarter points across his last eight games, which generally sets the tone for both the Lakers and his individual performance.

San Antonio Spurs @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Victor who? The Spurs keep balling out without the Frenchman, winning seven of their last nine games.

They face a Cleveland team that has struggled to reach the lofty heights of last season due to an injury-interrupted offseason, which has carried into more injuries to start this season. They sit eighth in the East.

Hosting San Antonio, can they respond after losing four of their last five?

LEG 1 – Jaylon Tyson Over 13.5 Points

Has produced some big games this season, generally when he’s in the starting lineup and when both Garland and Allen are missing for the Cavs.

Tyson averages 14.5 points per game as a starter this season, but when he plays 26+ minutes that average jumps to 16.8. In those nine games he has covered 13.5 points in eight of them.

In the four games where both Garland and Allen have missed, Tyson averages 19.5 points per game, including a 27-point outing against the Pacers the last time this happened. Will cover.

LEG 2 – Keldon Johnson 10+ Points

Averaging 13 points per game this season off the bench, Keldon Johnson has benefited from the injuries to Wemby and Castle.

Across that eight-game stretch, Johnson is averaging 16 points and has hit double figures in all eight games.

LEG 3 – Lonzo Ball 4+ Rebounds

Has played only three games without both Garland and Allen, starting two of them, and has rebounded well in their absence.

Lonzo averages 4.5 rebounds this season from just under 24 minutes per game, but those minutes jump closer to 29 per game when Garland and Allen are out. As a result, his rebound average rises to 6, hitting 4+ in all three games.

Will once again thrive with the additional opportunity.

SAME GAME MULTI

Tyson Over 13.5 Points / Johnson 10+ Points / Ball 4+ Rebounds = $4.00

VALUE BET

Jaylon Tyson 4+ 3PM @ $5.50

Can genuinely stroke it from deep. Tyson is shooting the three-ball at 48% this season, and when Garland and Allen are out that percentage goes through the roof, climbing to a crazy 56%.

Averaging 2.2 triples per game this season, in the four-game sample without Garland and Allen that average jumps to 3.8, and he has made 4+ in three of those games. Should get plenty of looks as a genuine offensive option in this lineup.

Miami Heat @ Dallas Mavericks

The Miami Heat are one of the surprise packets of the season, sitting third in the East with a 14-7 record, and they’ve just reintroduced Tyler Herro into their system. Bam Adebayo also missed a couple of weeks through injury.

Dallas, on the other hand, has been a complete disaster this season, from AD’s early injury to more issues for Gafford and Lively. Then there’s the whole Nico Harrison debate. But there’s some hope. AD has returned and was dominant in their win over the Nuggets, while Cooper Flagg has exploded in the last couple of games. Can they win three in a row when they host Miami?

LEG 1 – Tyler Herro 20+ Points

Herro has returned to the lineup and is immediately playing 30 minutes a night. He has been red-hot and shown no signs of rust.

He averages 24.8 points per game, is shooting 54% from the field and from deep, and has hit 20+ points in all four games since returning.

LEG 2 – Bam Adebayo 15+ Points

No issues for Bam Adebayo playing alongside Tyler Herro, who continues to lead the Heat through their surprising start to the season.

Bam averages 19.4 points per game, and in the four games he’s played alongside Herro he has hit 15+ on all four occasions.

He has hit 15+ in every game this season excluding the one he exited early due to injury against Detroit. He should clear this again with ease.

LEG 3 – Anthony Davis Over 2.5 Assists

The sheer usage through AD should see him produce a few assists in this matchup with the Heat.

He averages just under 3 assists per game from his seven appearances this season, and from his last six he has hit 3+ in five of them. The only miss came against the Pacers, where he played only six minutes due to injury.

I also expect the Heat to play some zone, which could see AD operate as a distributor from the elbow.

SAME GAME MULTI

Herro 20+ Points / Adebayo 15+ Points / Davis Over 2.5 Assists = $3.60

VALUE BET

Kel’El Ware Double Double @ $2.95

With the Mavericks likely to start AD and PJ Washington, this could be a matchup where the Heat start both Bam and Ware, possibly at the expense of Davion Mitchell or if Norman Powell misses through injury.

Ware as a starter is an automatic double double. He averages 12.9 points and 11.4 rebounds in starts this season, and has recorded double doubles in his last seven starts.

Coach Spoelstra has mixed up the starting lineup a fair bit this season, but with Dallas’ front-court size this appears to be a good opportunity to start Ware at centre.

Chicago Bulls @ Indiana Pacers

The Bulls started the season on fire but they’ve been really poor lately. In fact, in November Chicago has the seventh worst net rating in the NBA resulting in them plummeting down the Eastern Conference standings.

The Pacers are even worse though with a 3-16 record and a swag of injuries to key players. That being said, they enter this off the back of smashing the Wizards and on their home floor are a nice price as underdogs.

LEG 1 – Bennedict Mathurin Under 24.5 Points

I know Andrew Nembhard is questionable for this contest as Indiana enters off no rest, but it’s still a big line for Mathurin.

Mathurin started the season on fire for Indiana, but has slowed down recently with his average dropping to 22.6 points per game.

The wing has failed to score 25+ points in his last five games where he’s averaged 18.8 points over this stretch, so happy to back the unders here.

LEG 2 – Josh Giddey 8+ Rebounds

Averaging just under 10 rebounds per game this season, Josh Giddey overall numbers have eased off slightly since his hot start where he had the Bulls on top of the East, but his rebound numbers remain strong.

Giddey has hit 8+ rebounds in 12 of his last 15 games, and the Pacers are one of the easier teams for point guards to rebound against this season at 19% above average. Won’t be an issue here.

LEG 3 – Nikola Vucevic Under 17.5 Points

He has these games where he goes huge including what he did against the Wizards two starts back with 28 points, but Vucevic only averages 14.5 points over his last ten games which is a truer indication of his level.

During this stretch, Vucevic has only covered 17.5 points in three of those games, and although the Pacers aren’t great they’ve got enough defensive bigs on their roster that can do a job here.

SAME GAME MULTI

Mathurin Under 24.5 Points / Giddey 8+ Rebounds / Vucevic Under 17.5 Points = $4.33

VALUE BET

Josh Giddey Triple Double @ $3.70

He’s a genuine triple double threat every time he steps on the court these days.

Josh Giddey is averaging 20.8 points, 9.9 rebounds and 9.4 assists this season, and with how Indiana concedes rebounds to point guards he should comfortably hit 10+ rebounds here.

The Australian was one assist shy on Saturday against Charlotte in just 33 minutes, and three starts back recorded one against the Wizards. I like this price for a player that’s so close each time he steps on the floor.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks

The Cavaliers head to Atlanta for their final group game of the NBA Cup and will need a strong performance to secure a wildcard spot in the Quarter Finals.

The Hawks are eliminated after their horrific performance against the Wizards a few days ago, and it will take a huge effort for them to bounce back against the quality of Cleveland.

Point difference is vital for the Cavs here — expect big minutes from their stars as they try to extend the final margin and boost their chances of advancing.

LEG 1 – Cavaliers -5.5

The Hawks were woeful in their last NBA Cup game against the Wizards, gifting Washington just their second win of the season.

As a result, Atlanta cannot qualify for the next phase of the NBA Cup, but the Cavaliers can. Although Cleveland cannot finish top of East Group A due to Toronto’s perfect record, they’ll be relying on the wildcard spot. The Cavs currently hold a +33 point difference and will look to build on that to maximise their chances of advancing.

LEG 2 – Jalen Johnson 8+ Rebounds

Johnson has been key to the Hawks’ start to the season in Trae Young’s absence.

He is averaging 9.5 rebounds per game, and his rebound numbers have jumped 8% without Trae, up to 10.2 boards per game.

Last time Johnson faced the Cavs, he grabbed 13 rebounds, and he has hit 8+ rebounds in eight of his last nine games.

LEG 3 – Jalen Johnson 6+ Assists

Even if the Hawks don’t win, Johnson should have a major all-round impact.

He is averaging 7.8 assists per game without Young this season and has recorded 6+ assists in his last nine games.

Atlanta is effectively running Johnson at point guard, so another big assist game looks likely.

SAME GAME MULTI

Cavaliers -5.5 / Johnson 8+ Rebounds / Johnson 6+ Assists = $3.75

VALUE BET

Donovan Mitchell 35+ Points @ $3.30

I’m expecting more minutes for Donovan Mitchell here, as the Cavs will need to win by as much as possible if Detroit beats Orlando, given the Magic’s huge point differential.

Mitchell doesn’t usually play massive minutes, but in the seven games where he has played 35+, he’s averaged 34.1 points, hitting 35+ in three of them.

You’d assume Garland’s return reduces Mitchell’s output, but in Garland’s five games this season, Mitchell has still averaged 33.4 points.

He dropped 37 on the Hawks last time — more than capable of doing it again.

Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics

It was a shaky start to the season for Detroit at 2-2 including a shock loss to the Bulls, but since then they’ve strung 13 wins together, leading the Eastern Conference and being the form team in the NBA.

As for the Celtics, they’re just north of .500 with a 9-8 record, but some soft kills of late suggests that this game could get out of hand when Detroit enter TD Garden, now chasing a big points difference in their NBA Cup Group.

LEG 1 – Pistons

You could make a case they’re the form team in the NBA including the Thunder – the Pistons have won 13 games in a row!

This isn’t the same old Boston Celtics, and although they have won four of their last five games entering this contest those wins were against the Grizzlies (6-12), Nets (3-14) and Clippers (5-13) and although their recent performance against the Magic was a good win, the game prior they lost to Brooklyn.

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Neemias Queta is a big out for Boston and I think we’ll see Jalen Duren feast on the Celtics.

LEG 2 – Jalen Duren 15+ Points

Producing an incredible season, and his rise is a key reason behind Detroit’s hot start.

Jalen Duren averages 20.3 points per game this season, and has hit 15+ points in 80% of his games – the misses include an ejection against the Rockets and foul trouble against the Cavs.

But Duren has hit 15+ points in his last eight games, and with Luka Garza his likely opponent I think he’ll go big.

LEG 3 – Tobias Harris 10+ Points

Injury has limited Tobias Harris to eight games this season, but from Power Forward he’s averaging 13.9 points – a solid output.

Harris has hit 10+ points in seven of his eight games, and although minutes are floating around the mid-20s for now I think he’ll get enough opportunity to hit double figures.

SAME GAME MULTI

Pistons / Duren 15+ Points / Harris 10+ Points = $3.20

VALUE BET

Jalen Duren 30+ Points @ $9

I just can’t help but think that Jalen Duren is going to humiliate Luka Garza with Queta out.

We’ve seen Duren score 25+ on three occasions this season – all three occasions led to him scoring 30+, so why don’t we have a play at the $9?

The net rating numbers for Queta are actually insane – on floor Boston is +15.1, which would have them just behind OKC in the NBA. But when Queta is off the floor, they drop to -5.1 – the equivalent of dropping from an OKC level to a Dallas Mavericks level.

Their defensive rating shoots up to 125.5, which is the worst defensive rating in the league – so do we see Duren just go to town on Garza and Boucher?

Washington Wizards @ Chicago Bulls

The Bulls still have a positive record after 15 games at 8-7 but they have really come back down to earth after their 5-1 start to the season.

As for the Wizards, it’s just another year where they’re the worst team in the NBA starting the season 1-14, and they’re not even getting close.

The Bulls should bounce back – but historically if there’s a team that could lose the unloseable such as this game, it is Chicago.

LEG 1 – Kyshawn George 15+ Points

Not a great game against the Raptors, but the second-year pro can be excused as the entire team were terrible.

Prior to this game though, George averaged 17.4 points per game, hitting 15+ points in 62% of his games.

This will be a high-scoring affair so expect George to score points in this.

LEG 2 – Ayo Dosunmu 10+ Points

Always been a good scorer coming off the bench for the Bulls, and this season is no different.

Dosunmu is averaging 16.2 points per game this season – one of the better bench scorers in the NBA, and enters this game off the back of 23 points against the Heat.

With Buzelis and Terry likely out for the Bulls, this will shorten Chicago’s rotations so we’ll see plenty of Dosunmu in this one.

LEG 3 – Nikola Vucevic 2+ 3PM

Has produced an absolute stinker on Saturday against the Heat with six points, off the back of a monster game against the Trail Blazers including the game winner.

Vucevic averages 2 triples a game this season, but it’s his opponent in this that fills me with confidence.

The Wizards concede triples to centres 49% above average this season, so I think we’ll see plenty of looks for Vuc in this.

SAME GAME MULTI

George 15+ Points /Dosunmu 10+ Points / Vucevic 2+ 3PM = $3.30

VALUE BET

Jalen Smith 15+ Points @ $5.50

Been a really good back-up for the Bulls this season averaging 10 points per game including 14 last start against the Heat.

Smith has only hit 15+ on three occasions this season, but this is a perfect look for the big man against a Wizards team that is the easiest in the NBA for centres to score against at 30% above average.

I’m expecting a blowout in this, so Smith could play north of 20 minutes which gives him a great look at 15+ at a price.

OKC Thunder @ Utah Jazz

The Thunder have started the season in incredible fashion after winning the title last season with a 15-1 start. To make things more remarkable, All Star Jalen Williams hasn’t played a single game yet while the likes of Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso, Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins have also missed a handful of games.

Can they break Golden State’s regular season record? In the meantime, they’ll head to Utah where they shouldn’t have too many issues advancing past the Jazz.

LEG 1 – Jusuf Nurkic 4+ Assists

The big man has always been a good passer as a centre, and continues to do so as a starter for the Jazz this season.

Nurkic is averaging 4.4 assists as a starter, but he’s hit 4+ in seven of those nine games – the two misses he played 25 minutes or less.

Assuming he can stay on the court long enough in a likely blowout, the Bosnian hits this. Hopefully it’s similar to his last start where hit hit before half time.

LEG 2 – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ Points

He’s a genuine freak. The 2025 MVP continues to dominate games of basketball for the Thunder, and is averaging 32 points per game from just under 33 minutes per game.

SGA has hit 30+ points in 13 of his 16 games this season, which includes doing so in five games where he played less than 30 minutes.

We’ll probably see another Thunder blowout in this, but SGA should still hit his 30 at a point per minute.

LEG 3 – Ace Bailey 10+ Points

Has moved into the Utah starting line-up with mainly promising results if you exclude the Bulls game where he fouled out in 10 minutes.

Bailey averages 13.8 points per game from his five games as a starter, which includes hitting 10+ points in four of those games.

Assuming he plays at least 20 minutes and avoids foul trouble, the rookie hits this.

SAME GAME MULTI

Nurkic 4+ Assists / SGA 30+ Points / Bailey 10+ Points = $4.20

VALUE BET

Isaiah Joe 15+ Points @ $2.60

Has absolutely filled up in blowouts this season. Isaiah Joe is averaging 14 points per game coming off the bench for the Thunder, but when he gets some extra opportunities when the game is done and dusted he thrives.

In seven blowouts this season, Joe is averaging 17.4 points, hitting 15+ in four of those games including 20+ on three occasions – currently paying $6.

Think we’ll see the Thunder put the Jazz away early, and expect Joe to continue his good form in extended minutes.