Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 6

Best Bet

Nick Daicos @ $3.00

It’s line-ball between Nick Daicos and Bailey Smith as our best bet, but I’m leaning to the Magpie for at least one more week.

Daicos looks an absolute certainty to secure three votes in Collingwood’s win over Carlton, and now gets Essendon on Anzac Day with the Magpies set to start hot favourites. If Collingwood win again, you’d expect Daicos to be right in the mix for another two or three votes.

What separates Daicos from the chasing pack is that there is no one else in this Collingwood side likely to consistently take votes off him across the season.

Lay

Marcus Bontempelli @ $5.00

I’ll go as far as saying Marcus Bontempelli won’t win the Brownlow this season.

The Bulldogs left Geelong battered, including Bont himself, but the bigger issue is that wins may not come as easily as anticipated a few weeks ago.

The next fortnight is tough with Sydney and Fremantle to come, and despite the Bulldogs sitting 4-2, we have Bont just sixth on our leaderboard while the bookmakers still have him as second favourite.

Value Bet

Clayton Oliver @ $151

Injuries have derailed GWS’ season, but could they make a run over the next month?

The Giants host North Melbourne in Canberra in Round 7, then face Gold Coast before taking on Essendon and West Coast.

If GWS can win three of those four, Clayton Oliver could quickly come into Brownlow calculations. He sits eighth on our leaderboard with 7.71 votes, ranks fourth in the AFL for disposals per game, and more importantly sits third for contested possessions per game.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

Best Bet

Isaac Heeney @ $16

Heeney sits just outside our top eight, currently ranked 10th with 6.3 votes, and his historical polling numbers aren’t elite given much of his career has been spent forward.

Despite that, this price is too good to ignore. He has been Sydney’s best player to start the season and is one of the form players in the competition.

With Errol Gulden sidelined, Heeney’s midfield responsibility increases, giving him a strong chance to replicate his 2024 polling output. With a favourable draw ahead, Sydney should bank wins, creating opportunities to poll.

Lay

Marcus Bontempelli @ $2.75

We laid Bontempelli at $2.50 last week and are happy to go again at $2.75.

The market is tighter than the odds suggest, and the Bulldogs face a tough stretch against Geelong, Sydney and Fremantle.

Bontempelli is unlikely to poll last round, and if the Bulldogs struggle across this run, his price will drift. Expect him to be closer to $5 by Round 8.

Value Bet

Jai Newcombe @ $67

Newcombe continues to fly under the radar despite sitting fourth on our leaderboard.

He is a proven poller, with at least 17 votes in each of the past three seasons, and his numbers have lifted again in 2026.

Averaging a career-high 26.2 disposals, combined with consistent contested work, he profiles perfectly for Brownlow voting.

With Hawthorn expected to win games, Newcombe will continue to put himself in the frame at a very appealing price.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical.

By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively.

Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better reflects how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

Best Bet

Nick Daicos @ $4.00

Remains on top of our leaderboard after Round 4 despite being a late withdrawal on the weekend. As a result, Daicos has drifted to $4, but is expected to return this week against Fremantle.

The Dockers don’t have a natural tagger for Daicos. Corey Wagner may spend some time on him, but if Daicos is fit he could produce a huge game, having recorded 43 disposals and a goal the last time these sides met.

Lay

Marcus Bontempelli @ $2.50

That is a very short price for Bont, and there’s a strong chance we’ll get better value at some stage this season.

The Bulldogs are 4-0, but they face a tough stretch against Hawthorn, Geelong, Sydney and Fremantle. More importantly, there are plenty of teammates capable of taking votes off him.

He can absolutely win it, but $2.50 feels under the odds at this stage.

Value Bet

Luke Davies-Uniacke @ $101

There’s every chance LDU was best on in North Melbourne’s comeback win over Carlton, yet his price has drifted from $67 to $101.

Our data has Davies-Uniacke as one of the best pollers of the past six years, polling 40% above expectation since 2019.

North Melbourne now face Brisbane, Richmond and GWS. If they win a couple of those and LDU maintains this level, he’ll remain right up the top of our leaderboard.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical.

By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively.

Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better reflects how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 3

Best Bet

Nick Daicos @ $3.00

Once again, it was a Nick Daicos masterclass in a Collingwood win, and there’s no doubt he’ll poll three votes.

36 disposals and two goals should comfortably secure the maximum votes against the Giants, and I don’t think the $3 will last much longer.

Although Bontempelli has been dominant to start the season, the Bulldogs have several players capable of taking votes off him. Daicos doesn’t have that same issue at Collingwood, and if the Magpies continue winning he should remain the clear favourite for most of the season.

Lay

Zak Butters @ $26

I just can’t see Port Adelaide winning enough games this season for Butters to be a consistent poller.

Although the Power have a reasonably soft draw over the next fortnight with Richmond and St Kilda, they could easily drop both of those games. After that they face Hawthorn, Geelong, Adelaide, the Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast.

As it stands, Butters sits just outside our top Brownlow chances despite currently being listed among the favourites in the betting.

Value Bet

Luke Davies-Uniacke @ $67

North Melbourne have a good stretch coming up, and if they can string together a few wins, Luke Davies-Uniacke will be much shorter than the $67 currently available.

LDU has polled 42 votes over the last three seasons, which is impressive considering North Melbourne has won just 11 games in that period.

His contested ball numbers fit the Brownlow profile perfectly and he’s currently averaging a career-high disposal number. Definitely one to watch.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring such as 2.5, 1.5 and 0.5, providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 2

Best Bet

Nick Daicos @ $3.50

Daicos enters Round 3 fresh off the bye with an opportunity to poll when Collingwood face the Giants at Marvel Stadium on Friday night.

With Petracca set for an extended period on the sidelines with a hamstring injury, and the Bulldogs having the bye in Round 3, this gives Daicos a huge opportunity to leapfrog the two players currently ahead of him.

Lay

Christian Petracca @ $26

An incredible start to his career as a Sun, but Saturday was a major setback for the former Demon with a hamstring injury set to rule him out for 4–6 weeks.

Despite this, bookmakers still have Petracca as one of the favourites for this year’s Brownlow, but it simply won’t happen from here.

When Petracca returns, it will likely coincide with the return of Matt Rowell, which should see Petracca spend more time forward rather than the predominant midfield role he started the season with.

Value Bet

Jai Newcombe @ $41

It’s surprising to see Newcombe at this price given the likelihood of Hawthorn banking a lot of wins this season, along with his polling history and the extended absence of Will Day.

Newcombe has been a phenomenal poller across his short career. He finished top 10 in 2024 with 24 votes and top 20 last year with 17 votes, despite many projecting him to poll closer to 10.

His numbers were slightly down in 2025, averaging 22.9 disposals, but he’s started 2026 in strong form with 26 disposals per game across his first three matches. Although Hawthorn have a deep team, there aren’t many players who will consistently steal votes off Newcombe across the season.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring such as 2.5, 1.5 and 0.5, providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 1

Best Bet

Nick Daicos @ $4.00

The umpires receiving post-game stats is a potential game changer for Nick Daicos. Despite Collingwood’s loss to Adelaide, Daicos clearly had the strongest numbers on paper and will likely feature prominently in the votes in most games he plays this season.

He has very little competition for votes at Collingwood. In games the Magpies win, Daicos is often the standout performer and regularly in the frame for three votes.

Although Petracca has started the season strongly, Gold Coast’s midfield depth — particularly with the return of Matt Rowell — creates far more internal competition for votes.

Lay

Zak Butters @ $19

It’s difficult to see Port Adelaide winning enough games for Zak Butters to be a genuine Brownlow contender this season.

Butters finished equal 11th last year in a team that won nine games. With Josh Carr stepping in as a first-year coach and Butters’ future continually making headlines, it’s hard to see the Power improving significantly on that win total in 2026.

He is also likely to attract more tagging attention this year. Despite sitting around the fifth line of betting, the path to the Brownlow looks extremely difficult for Butters.

Value Bet

Caleb Serong @ $26

Serong was unlucky not to poll maximum votes in Round 1 after a dominant performance against Geelong.

Fremantle’s next two fixtures present strong opportunities to collect votes. The Dockers host Melbourne in Round 2 before welcoming Richmond in Round 3 — both games they will be confident of winning.

Serong has finished inside the top ten in Brownlow voting in each of the past three seasons, making $26 an appealing price if Fremantle can string together a strong run of wins.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness when assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical.

Our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (for example 2.5, 1.5 or 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

The system still allocates six total votes per match, but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. This reduces arbitrary decisions and better captures subtle differences in player performance.

The result is more accurate predictions and a leaderboard that better reflects how games are viewed by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

Best Bet

Nick Daicos @ $2.75

The Port Adelaide loss could prove costly for Suns duo Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell, and it looks like Nick Daicos may have done enough in Collingwood’s win over Melbourne to secure the 2025 Brownlow Medal.

It wasn’t Daicos’ best performance in Round 24, but there’s always the chance of him polling given Collingwood don’t have too many big vote-getters around him. He’s probably done enough to hold on.

Lay

Jordan Dawson @ $5.00

I don’t think the Crows skipper has done enough to poll in Adelaide’s win over North Melbourne, finishing with just 23 disposals and no goals.

As a result, we have Dawson finishing outside the top 10 on 22 votes, despite still being listed as second-equal favourite at the short quote of $5.

I’d be very surprised if Dawson takes home the 2025 Brownlow Medal.

Value

Tom Green @ $51

Green was best on ground in the Giants’ win over St Kilda and has drifted from $41 out to $51.

Contested possessions are a key driver of Brownlow success, and Green leads the competition in that category with 15.4 per game.

We’ve got Green polling 7.75 votes in GWS’ last three games of the season. If he’s within striking distance after Round 21, watch out for the Giant at odds.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.

Best Bet

Matt Rowell @ $10

Based on our numbers, it is now a three-horse race between Nick Daicos and the two Gold Coast Suns, and the $10 for Rowell looks very appealing in that context.

We have him just a three-vote game off Daicos, but with two matches left against Port Adelaide and Essendon, both limping to the line, Rowell is in a terrific position.

Melbourne have also done well against Daicos recently. We do not have him polling in this year’s game with Ed Langdon tagging him closely, while in last year’s Queen’s Birthday clash he managed only 15 disposals in three quarters before being subbed, though he still polled a vote.

Expect Rowell’s price to shorten in the weeks ahead. At $10, he is the bet.

Lay

Jordan Dawson @ $4.50

When was the last time a player won the Brownlow while ranking outside the top 40 for contested possessions per game? You have to go back 22 years to Adam Goodes in 2003, in a three-way tie.

Dawson sits 43rd in the AFL in this stat (minimum 10 games). Goodes was the lowest ranked player ever to win the medal in this category, also 43rd, and no one else outside the top 40 has done it since contested possessions were first recorded in 1999.

Nick Daicos is not elite in this category either, which makes for a fascinating count, but knowing this history I could not back Dawson at $4.50.

Value

Tom Green @ $41

When Tom Green has had 25 or more disposals and a goal in a win, he has almost always polled three votes. That trend was clear in 2024 when he polled 27 votes.

This year he has produced that stat line in seven matches. If he polls maximum votes in all of them, plus picks up the odd one or two-vote game elsewhere, he will be right in the mix.

We have Green at 21.75 votes in this count, just entering the top eight after a big weekend. For context, last year we projected him at 21.23 and he finished with 27. If he outperforms his projection again, he is firmly in top-three calculations.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.

Best Bet

Matt Rowell @ $8.00

I say it every week – game in hand! The Suns also have a great run home with Port Adelaide and Essendon in their final two games of the season.

Three weeks ago we had Matt Rowell as our value bet at $26. Two weeks ago he was our best bet at $21. Now the Gold Coast Suns’ inside bull is once again our best bet at $8 – and it’s still great value.

Last year Rowell averaged just 23.4 disposals per game in a team that won 11 games, yet he polled 25 votes. He’s now up to 26.2 disposals per game, leads the league in clearances with a career-high average of 9, and plays in a team set to win either 16 or 17 games. I would have Rowell marked at $3.

Lay

Bailey Smith @ $12

Looking at the run home and the opportunities for the top eight (all of whom can still technically win it), from that group I think you can put a pen through Bailey Smith.

Seven of the top eight in the market could realistically poll in Round 23 and keep their chances alive heading into the final round. But with Geelong heading to the SCG to face Sydney, this is a bad match-up for Smith.

Geelong hasn’t beaten Sydney at the SCG since 2019, and I can’t see Smith being the one to drag them over the line. I’d prefer many others on the leaderboard at this price or longer.

Value

Caleb Serong @ $26

A great price for the Docker, who was our clear best-on-ground in Fremantle’s comeback win over Port Adelaide with 28 disposals and a goal, including 16 contested possessions and seven clearances.

Serong is a proven poller over the past two seasons. We have him one best-on-ground performance away from leader Nick Daicos. He finished equal 4th last year with 28 votes and equal 7th in 2023 with 24 votes.

He ranks second in the AFL for contested possessions, fits the Brownlow profile, and has polled well against Brisbane – earning 3 votes in each of their last two meetings and 8 votes across their last four clashes.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.

Best Bet

Noah Anderson @ $4.80

Last week, Rowell was our best bet at $21, with his odds crunched into $13 after Round 21. But following a monstrous performance, it’s Noah Anderson who gets the nod this week at $5.

Whether it’s Rowell or Anderson, the Suns have a game in hand, and with both players currently on the podium, this angle becomes more relevant each week.

Anderson is just one best-on-ground performance behind Daicos, who faces Hawthorn this week. It’s a side he has historically struggled against, so this round presents another big opportunity for one of the Suns midfielders to close the gap.

Lay

Jordan Dawson @ $6.00

If you’ve read this article before, you’ll know there’s a consistent theme — laying Jordan Dawson.

He was solid in Adelaide’s win over the Hawks but managed just 21 disposals. It wasn’t a dominant display.

Dawson does re-enter the top eight on the leaderboard, but at $6, he still looks well off the pace.

Value

Max Holmes @ $81

He’s flying. Another best-on-ground performance in Geelong’s demolition of Port Adelaide has pushed Max Holmes to outright sixth on our leaderboard.

Geelong now face Essendon in Round 22. Just eight weeks ago, Holmes was best on ground against the Bombers with 36 disposals and a goal. In Round 24, they play Richmond, a side he also dominated with 36 and a goal.

The polling history is a concern, which explains the price, but the Geelong speedster has a very favourable run home.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.