As of Round 19 2026, Nick Daicos leads the Brownlow Medal race with 33.03 projected votes, priced at $1.45 to win. Marcus Bontempelli sits second on 26.52 votes at $9.00, with Patrick Cripps third on 26.36 votes at $34. Our best bet is Bontempelli at $9.00, with the Bulldogs facing a favourable run home that could close the gap on Daicos.

Nick Daicos had plenty of it in Collingwood’s Round 19 win over the Blues. Is he a sure thing to win the 2026 Brownlow?

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 19

Best Bet

Marcus Bontempelli

Can the Bont make a late run? He’s got some work to do, but the Bulldogs face Richmond this week and North Melbourne in Round 22, so a big three weeks ahead which could put him within striking distance of Daicos with two rounds remaining.

As for Daicos, the dream post-bye run for the Pies has come to an end. Collingwood have Adelaide on Thursday night, along with Geelong, Hawthorn and Brisbane in the run home, so the votes will likely slow down from here.

The issue for Bont is that he’s surprisingly polled below expectation in the majority of seasons dating back to 2019, but the positive is that the Bulldog did outperform his projected votes last year. Can he carry that momentum into the 2026 count? I think he’ll be significantly shorter than $9 come Brownlow Night.

Back Marcus Bontempelli @ $9.00 with betr

Lay

Isaac Heeney

He’s one of the best handful of players in the competition and having an outstanding season, but the Swans’ lull has pushed Heeney out of Brownlow contention.

Although he’s currently listed as third favourite, we have Heeney in eighth place on our leaderboard with Jordan Dawson only slightly behind him.

The biggest concern is Heeney’s polling history. He’s notoriously polled below expectation, including last year where Chad Warner polled like a maniac as Sydney’s leading poller. Heeney would need to turn the tables and poll well above expectation, which he’s never done before across his career.

Back Isaac Heeney @ $14 with betr

Value Bet

Will Ashcroft

In career-best form which is in conjunction with Brisbane’s resurgence.

Will Ashcroft has had 30+ disposals in his last five games, and we have him polling 11 votes during this stretch, moving into tenth place on our leaderboard with 17.64 votes.

Year on year his numbers are close to identical, polling just 11 votes in 2025. But last year McCluggage and Zorko combined for 35 votes, and the pair have been injured for a large chunk of the season, or in McCluggage’s case completely out of form. Ashcroft will be consuming a lot of those votes this year.

He can’t win it, but he’s a watch for exotics.

Back Will Ashcroft @ $126 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

As of Round 18 2026, Nick Daicos leads the Brownlow Medal race with 30.65 projected votes, priced at $1.60 to win. Patrick Cripps sits second on 24.26 votes at $34, while Marcus Bontempelli is third on 23.68 votes at $10. Our best bet is Cripps at $34, with the value play being Nasaiah Wanganeen-Milera at $51.

Nick Daicos is the red-hot favourite after another strong performance, but can we take the $1.60 as our best bet after Round 18?

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 18

Best Bet

Patrick Cripps

Could this be an extraordinary case of deja vu for Nick Daicos? It was 2023, Round 18 was complete and Daicos was a $1.60 favourite to win the Brownlow Medal. He played two more games without polling a vote, before injury struck resulting in him missing the rest of the home and away season.

I’m not saying this will happen again, but $1.60 is incredibly short with six games remaining, and with the work being done to Daicos during the game on the weekend, I can’t guarantee he’s home.

Cripps won’t poll in their loss to Carlton, but we still have the Blues’ skipper in second place on our leaderboard. It’s a huge clash this weekend with the Pies which could be Brownlow defining. A Blues win could see Collingwood potentially win just one game in the last six, which gives the field a chance of making late ground.

Back Patrick Cripps @ $34 with betr

Lay

Luke Jackson

Luke Jackson is the sixth line of betting, but there are so many indicators that suggest the big man won’t even finish inside the top-ten on Brownlow Night.

Firstly, he’s a ruckman, and yes, he did poll well last year, but not at a level where he’s a genuine Brownlow contender.

He’s also in a team which is absolutely stacked with players that can poll on any given night. Our leaderboard had five Dockers inside the top-40, with four players on 10+ votes.

We didn’t have Jackson in the votes in Round 18, and as a result he’s dropped outside our top-15 on 14.76 votes.

Back Luke Jackson @ $18 with betr

Value Bet

Nasaiah Wanganeen-Milera

The Saints have had a nice run of form winning three of their last four games, and Wanganeen-Milera has been flying.

We saw the exact same thing this time last season where the Saint stormed into Brownlow calculations, finishing equal ninth on 23 votes. We have Wanganeen-Milera polling around 8.25 votes in his last five games, and the Saints have a decent stretch ahead which gives him plenty more opportunities.

They get a wounded Cats on Thursday night, along with North Melbourne, Gold Coast and Richmond in their run home. Currently in 12th place on 16.29 votes, I’d be shocked if he didn’t finish inside the top-eight from here.

Back Nasaiah Wanganeen-Milera @ $51 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

Another big performance from Nick Daicos sees the Collingwood superstar extend his lead after Round 17, but the two others on the podium remain at big prices.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 17

Best Bet

Nick Daicos

It’s short and we’ve seen this movie before back in 2023 when he got injured late and was overrun by Lachie Neale, but I just cannot see Nick Daicos getting beaten this time around.

His next two weeks are against North Melbourne, where he might get the O’Sullivan tag, followed by the Blues who he has an outstanding record against. After Carlton, the Magpies face the Crows, and we saw what Zak Butters did to them just a week ago.

Although there’s still seven rounds left and Collingwood has a somewhat difficult draw, if they win three games it will likely result in three three-voters, which has Daicos pushing 40 votes. Although this wasn’t enough in 2024, it will be in 2026.

Back Nick Daicos @ $1.75 with betr

Lay

Jordan Dawson

It’s now Nick Daicos vs the field, with every other player listed in double digits, but I can’t have Jordan Dawson fifth line of betting despite a strong outing on the weekend.

Our leaderboard doesn’t have Dawson inside our top-ten, currently on 16.54 votes after Round 17.

The Adelaide skipper has been outstanding, but a slow start to the season has him coming from a long way back. There are plenty of others we have ahead of him at a far better price, such as Newcombe and Cripps.

Back Jordan Dawson @ $16 with betr

Value Bet

Jason Horne-Francis

Sheezel is the obvious value at $67, but the Kangaroos have a difficult run, so I’m taking Jason Horne-Francis who is coming in hot.

Although Port Adelaide’s run isn’t much easier, they have been playing the better football between the two teams when up against quality opposition, and it’s off the back of Butters and Horne-Francis.

We now have Horne-Francis in tenth place on our leaderboard with 17.18 votes, potentially polling 11 votes across his last six games.

He has polled well in the past, including 16 votes in 2023 when he was projected less than eight.

Back Jason Horne-Francis @ $81 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

Nick Daicos’ lead continues after another dominant performance, while right behind him sit two players priced in the $20s, plus an $81 chance moves into our top-five.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 16

Best Bet

Patrick Cripps

Purely due to room to improve price wise, I have to take Patrick Cripps once again. According to our leaderboard, Cripps is the only player within striking distance of Nick Daicos, just over three votes behind the star Magpie.

Carlton face Richmond this week before a tougher challenge in Round 18 against the Hawks. Assuming the Blues win their seventh game in a row, Cripps will again have a big chance of polling the maximum, with our numbers having him do so in six of his last seven games.

Although the market is slow on one of the greatest pollers in Brownlow history, there’s every chance he’s around $10 off the back of a best-on-ground performance against the Tigers.

Back Patrick Cripps @ $26 with betr

Lay

Luke Jackson

Having an unbelievable year, but the spread of votes in this Fremantle outfit could be Jackson’s downfall.

Ruckmen generally don’t poll too well, but Jackson did surprise last year with 17 votes so I’m not ruling that out. According to our leaderboard he’s a long way from Daicos in ninth place on 14.76 votes, for someone marked as a $10 equal-fourth favourite in the market.

We have five Fremantle players inside our top-35 with 8+ votes, so the sheer competition for votes at the Dockers will make this tough for Jackson.

Back Luke Jackson @ $10 with betr

Value Bet

Harry Sheezel

He’s been our value for three straight weeks now and he remains our clear-cut value after another best-on performance against the Bombers.

Sheezel has now moved inside the top-five on our leaderboard, leapfrogging the likes of Heeney ($8) and Smith ($10), and North Melbourne get yet another huge opportunity on the weekend against the Power.

After that he’ll face the Magpies, a matchup midfielders can get a hold of as well, so there’s the potential we continue to see more votes coming Sheezel’s way in the next fortnight. He probably has the closest profile to Daicos this season, minus the scoreboard impact.

Back Harry Sheezel @ $81 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

It was another Nick Daicos masterclass on the weekend, but a $34 chance has stormed into calculations and is at a price we simply cannot ignore after Round 15.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 15

Best Bet

Patrick Cripps

We’ve had Nick Daicos as our best bet the last few weeks, but at this price I have to shift to Patrick Cripps despite him being three votes behind the Magpie.

Cripps has a strong chance to poll three votes in Carlton’s win over the Giants, alongside Walsh and Hewett, but the Blues’ skipper’s polling history cannot be ignored.

We now have Cripps the front-runner to poll three votes in five of his last six games, with their win over Essendon the only blip. Carlton face the Eagles and Tigers the next fortnight, entering as favourites in both, and if Cripps maintains this level he should poll in both.

Back Patrick Cripps @ $34 with betr

Lay

Jordan Dawson

Was our lay at $13 last week, and although the Crows won I can’t see Dawson polling with just 18 disposals against the Demons.

Despite this, Dawson has shortened into $12 while Bontempelli has stayed at $5.50 even with a clear best on ground performance.

The Crows’ skipper has slid to 12th on our leaderboard after Round 15, and the $12 on offer certainly doesn’t align with what we’re seeing.

Back Jordan Dawson @ $12 with betr

Value Bet

Harry Sheezel

I don’t think Harry Sheezel will win the Brownlow but he remains the best value, and as predicted in our Round 14 article, Sheezel moved into the top-eight of our leaderboard off the back of a best on ground performance against the Tigers.

North Melbourne will now face the Bombers, giving Sheezel another huge opportunity for maximum votes.

Sheezel has polled above our expectations in the last two years, including polling 15 votes in 2024 despite the Kangaroos winning just three games.

Back Harry Sheezel @ $101 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

There wasn’t much movement up top after Round 14, but another contender has emerged in the top-eight of our leaderboard, albeit at a slightly short price.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 14

Best Bet

Nick Daicos

The next month is where Daicos goes from $4.50 into a $2 favourite.

The Pies face Port Adelaide, Richmond, the struggling Suns and North Melbourne over the next month, four winnable games for Collingwood, and if they are winning, Daicos is polling.

From 2023 to 2025, Daicos has polled in 80% of Collingwood’s wins, including polling three votes in 43%, averaging 1.84 votes per win. If the Pies do win three of the next four, history suggests that Daicos will be north of 26 votes with six rounds left.

Back Nick Daicos @ $4.50 with betr

Lay

Jordan Dawson

Has been the biggest mover in the competition from Round 9, polling approximately 12 votes in his last five games, but he has given the field a head start.

Dawson missed a handful of games with both injury and personal reasons, and as a result we had him on only 1.5 votes after Round 8.

The Crows’ superstar has now moved into eighth on our leaderboard, but due to recent performances he’s marked at $13, despite being $51 a week ago. Six votes behind the leading Daicos, I just think this price is too short despite Dawson currently being the form player of the competition.

Back Jordan Dawson @ $13 with betr

Value Bet

Harry Sheezel

Clear best on ground on the weekend, and I would be shocked if Harry Sheezel didn’t feature in the top-eight leaderboard after Round 15.

Sheezel sits just outside our list in ninth spot off the back of 33 disposals and a goal in North Melbourne’s win over West Coast, with 14.01 votes.

Ranked fourth in the competition for disposals this season, Sheezel will face Richmond in Round 15, with Essendon and Port Adelaide the next two weeks. His last two games against the Tigers were 39 disposals and a goal in Round 6 this year, and 54 disposals and two goals at the end of the 2025 season.

Back Harry Sheezel @ $101 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

Another big game by Nick Daicos in Collingwood’s loss on Monday keeps the Magpie on top, but the leaderboard has tightened up once again after some big Round 13 performances.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 13

Best Bet

Nick Daicos

I know Collingwood has the bye, but Daicos is the clear standout this year in terms of his weekly output, and I’m surprised he’s still at this price.

Despite the Pies losing to Melbourne on King’s Birthday, Daicos still had 35 disposals and two goals, which likely gets him the two votes behind Pickett.

Collingwood have only won one of their last six games, but after the bye their draw opens right up. Port Adelaide, Richmond, Gold Coast, North Melbourne and Carlton await. A Brownlow-defining five weeks for Daicos.

Back Nick Daicos @ $4.00 with betr

Lay

Christian Petracca

Gold Coast’s fixture is a complete nightmare for the remainder of the season, and the way they’re playing it’s hard to see them split their remaining games, especially in the next three weeks where they head to Geelong, host the Hawks and then head to Perth to take on the ladder-leading Dockers.

Petracca won’t poll in their loss to Brisbane, and has still played reasonably well of late, but with Rowell back in the mix it’s hard to see the former Demon being the primary poller in their wins going forward.

Between their fixture and the midfield mix, Petracca cannot win it from here.

Back Christian Petracca @ $15 with betr

Value Bet

Harley Reid

Obviously Cripps and Newcombe are both outstanding value at $41, but as they both have the bye in Round 14, I’ve opted to find Harley Reid again with the opportunity for him to be crunched in this time next week.

Reid is in 13th place on our leaderboard, but a big game against North Melbourne could see the former number one pick move into the top-eight. When the Eagles played the Kangaroos earlier in the year, Reid had 21 disposals and two goals in their win, in which we have him as favourite to be awarded the three votes in that game.

In his two seasons so far, Reid has polled close to 30% above projection, albeit with a small sample size, so if he continues to play at this level he won’t go unnoticed.

Back Harley Reid @ $151 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

A big Round 11 with the top of our leaderboard all amongst the votes, while a two-time Brownlow Medalist has made his move over the last three weeks.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 11

Best Bet

Nick Daicos

I see there are plenty of punters fading Nick Daicos’ Brownlow chances in favour of Bailey Smith and Bontempelli, but in Round 11 Daicos has a better chance of polling three votes than his two main competitors.

Daicos finished with 34 disposals and three goals, and while Darcy Cameron was outstanding for Collingwood, umpires will always favour the midfielder. Smith and Bontempelli both had big games, but they’re both more likely to end up with two votes due to huge performances by Max Holmes and Ed Richards.

A Brownlow swing game in Round 12 awaits against the Bulldogs, and in Daicos’ favour, there won’t be anyone doing a defensive job on him.

Back Nick Daicos @ $4 with betr

Lay

Zak Butters

I just don’t see a path where Butters wins the Brownlow despite being fourth line of betting.

The Port Adelaide star has been great all year, but the Power’s run home doesn’t look easy, with the reality being that they’ll likely only win two or three games the remainder of the year.

Butters has drifted to sixth on our leaderboard, and reality is he’ll struggle to stay inside the top-ten if the Power can only win three of their next 12.

Back Zak Butters @ $13 with betr

Value Bet

Patrick Cripps

Our value at $251 last week, still our value at $61 this week. I thought the Blues were a chance against the Power, but they did a number on them, with Cripps best on ground off 32 disposals and a goal.

According to our database, from 2019 to 2025 Cripps has exceeded his projected votes by 22%. In comparison, Nick Daicos is at just 6.5%. Even last year, Cripps polled 19 votes when projected just 12.

You can easily make a case that Cripps has four best-ons now, and although Carlton has Geelong this week, their next four games after that are Essendon, GWS, West Coast and Richmond.

Back Patrick Cripps @ $61 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

Nick Daicos remains narrowly in front despite surviving back-to-back tagging jobs, while Bailey Smith and Marcus Bontempelli continue to apply pressure close behind.

There’s also a familiar name storming back into contention, with former Brownlow Medallist Patrick Cripps entering our leaderboard at triple-figure odds.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 10

Best Bet

We anticipated a rough fortnight for Nick Daicos with consecutive tagging jobs from Oisin Mullin and James Jordan, but he’s come through it still leading our leaderboard after Round 10.

The fixture ahead now looks extremely favourable.

Collingwood face West Coast this weekend before taking on the Bulldogs, who traditionally don’t employ a hard tag. After King’s Birthday against Melbourne, the Magpies head into the bye before a very manageable stretch against Port Adelaide, Richmond, Gold Coast, North Melbourne and Carlton.

Importantly, several of those opponents are unlikely to send a dedicated stopper to Daicos.

It shapes as the perfect opportunity for him to create separation on the leaderboard over the next six weeks.

Back Nick Daicos @ $5 with betr

Lay

The concern with Marcus Bontempelli isn’t his ability to poll votes — it’s the Bulldogs’ ability to consistently win games.

Western Bulldogs look vulnerable at the moment and the upcoming fixture doesn’t get any easier.

They now face Melbourne, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Adelaide, St Kilda and Sydney across the next six rounds, with plenty of genuine 50-50 matchups in that stretch.

Based on current form, there’s a realistic scenario where the Bulldogs go 1-5 over that period, which would make it extremely difficult for Bontempelli to keep pace with the other leading contenders.

At the current market prices, there’s simply more value elsewhere.

Marcus Bontempelli @ $4 with betr

Value Bet

It sounds far-fetched given the scrutiny Patrick Cripps has faced this season, but there are genuine indicators suggesting he could make a late Brownlow charge.

Cripps currently ranks third in the AFL for contested possessions per game — historically one of the strongest indicators for Brownlow success.

He’s also one of the best natural pollers of the modern era.

Cripps has likely been best-on-ground in both Carlton wins this season, while there’s a strong case he also polled heavily last week against Brisbane after recording 32 disposals and a goal.

The biggest factor is Carlton’s upcoming draw.

Across the next six weeks, the Blues face five of the six lowest-ranked teams in the competition, alongside Geelong.

If the coaching change under Josh Fraser sparks a run of wins and Carlton goes 4-2 over that stretch, Cripps could rapidly shorten from his current triple-figure odds.

Back Patrick Cripps @ $251 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness when assessing player performances.

The traditional 3-2-1 voting method limits allocations to whole numbers, often forcing sharp distinctions between players whose performances may have been nearly identical.

Our weighted system instead allows for decimal-based scoring such as 2.5, 1.5 and 0.5, providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on a game.

The model still maintains the standard six total votes per match, but introduces greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed.

Ultimately, this reduces arbitrary decision-making and creates a leaderboard that more accurately reflects how games are viewed by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

Nick Daicos and Marcus Bontempelli remain top of our leaderboard, but there are now several genuine challengers emerging behind them as the season reaches its midway point.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 9

Best Bet

I’m still leaning towards Christian Petracca despite the fact he’s unlikely to poll in Round 9 and currently sits sixth on our leaderboard.

The Suns now enter a really favourable stretch of games, facing Port Adelaide in Darwin before taking on North Melbourne in Round 11.

Gold Coast should enter both games as strong favourites, providing Petracca with a real opportunity to close the gap on the leaders.

Meanwhile, Nick Daicos faces a likely James Jordan tag against Sydney this week, while Marcus Bontempelli historically hasn’t produced huge performances against Carlton over the last four seasons.

At double-figure odds, Petracca still shapes as one of the strongest plays in the market.

Back Christian Petracca @ $10 with betr

Lay

This isn’t questioning Lachie Neale’s ability to poll votes, particularly after entering our top-eight for the first time this season.

The concern is Brisbane’s upcoming fixture.

The Lions now face Geelong, GWS at Engie Stadium, Fremantle and Gold Coast across the next month — arguably the toughest stretch of football any AFL team faces.

There’s also the growing presence of Hugh McCluggage as a direct polling competitor in this Brisbane midfield, with his centre bounce numbers steadily increasing.

I struggle to see Neale’s odds shortening dramatically from here.

Back Lachie Neale @ $17 with betr

Value Bet

Harry Sheezel continues to hover around the top-eight of our leaderboard despite still being priced as a major outsider.

There’s enormous boom-or-bust potential here.

The North Melbourne star has already given himself the opportunity to poll in eight of the first nine games this season, even if many of those are likely to be one or two-vote performances.

If he can continue banking minor votes consistently, he’ll remain firmly in the race deep into the season.

Historically, Sheezel has also polled roughly 10% above expectation, highlighted by collecting 15 Brownlow votes in 2024 despite North Melbourne winning only three games.

Back Harry Sheezel @ $51 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances.

The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical.

By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring such as 2.5, 1.5 and 0.5, providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach still maintains the standard six total votes per match, but introduces greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed.

Ultimately, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and produces a leaderboard that more accurately reflects how games are viewed by fans, analysts and the broader football community.