Best Bet

Nick Daicos @ $2.75

The Port Adelaide loss could prove costly for Suns duo Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell, and it looks like Nick Daicos may have done enough in Collingwood’s win over Melbourne to secure the 2025 Brownlow Medal.

It wasn’t Daicos’ best performance in Round 24, but there’s always the chance of him polling given Collingwood don’t have too many big vote-getters around him. He’s probably done enough to hold on.

Lay

Jordan Dawson @ $5.00

I don’t think the Crows skipper has done enough to poll in Adelaide’s win over North Melbourne, finishing with just 23 disposals and no goals.

As a result, we have Dawson finishing outside the top 10 on 22 votes, despite still being listed as second-equal favourite at the short quote of $5.

I’d be very surprised if Dawson takes home the 2025 Brownlow Medal.

Value

Tom Green @ $51

Green was best on ground in the Giants’ win over St Kilda and has drifted from $41 out to $51.

Contested possessions are a key driver of Brownlow success, and Green leads the competition in that category with 15.4 per game.

We’ve got Green polling 7.75 votes in GWS’ last three games of the season. If he’s within striking distance after Round 21, watch out for the Giant at odds.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.

Best Bet

Matt Rowell @ $10

Based on our numbers, it is now a three-horse race between Nick Daicos and the two Gold Coast Suns, and the $10 for Rowell looks very appealing in that context.

We have him just a three-vote game off Daicos, but with two matches left against Port Adelaide and Essendon, both limping to the line, Rowell is in a terrific position.

Melbourne have also done well against Daicos recently. We do not have him polling in this year’s game with Ed Langdon tagging him closely, while in last year’s Queen’s Birthday clash he managed only 15 disposals in three quarters before being subbed, though he still polled a vote.

Expect Rowell’s price to shorten in the weeks ahead. At $10, he is the bet.

Lay

Jordan Dawson @ $4.50

When was the last time a player won the Brownlow while ranking outside the top 40 for contested possessions per game? You have to go back 22 years to Adam Goodes in 2003, in a three-way tie.

Dawson sits 43rd in the AFL in this stat (minimum 10 games). Goodes was the lowest ranked player ever to win the medal in this category, also 43rd, and no one else outside the top 40 has done it since contested possessions were first recorded in 1999.

Nick Daicos is not elite in this category either, which makes for a fascinating count, but knowing this history I could not back Dawson at $4.50.

Value

Tom Green @ $41

When Tom Green has had 25 or more disposals and a goal in a win, he has almost always polled three votes. That trend was clear in 2024 when he polled 27 votes.

This year he has produced that stat line in seven matches. If he polls maximum votes in all of them, plus picks up the odd one or two-vote game elsewhere, he will be right in the mix.

We have Green at 21.75 votes in this count, just entering the top eight after a big weekend. For context, last year we projected him at 21.23 and he finished with 27. If he outperforms his projection again, he is firmly in top-three calculations.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.

Best Bet

Matt Rowell @ $8.00

I say it every week – game in hand! The Suns also have a great run home with Port Adelaide and Essendon in their final two games of the season.

Three weeks ago we had Matt Rowell as our value bet at $26. Two weeks ago he was our best bet at $21. Now the Gold Coast Suns’ inside bull is once again our best bet at $8 – and it’s still great value.

Last year Rowell averaged just 23.4 disposals per game in a team that won 11 games, yet he polled 25 votes. He’s now up to 26.2 disposals per game, leads the league in clearances with a career-high average of 9, and plays in a team set to win either 16 or 17 games. I would have Rowell marked at $3.

Lay

Bailey Smith @ $12

Looking at the run home and the opportunities for the top eight (all of whom can still technically win it), from that group I think you can put a pen through Bailey Smith.

Seven of the top eight in the market could realistically poll in Round 23 and keep their chances alive heading into the final round. But with Geelong heading to the SCG to face Sydney, this is a bad match-up for Smith.

Geelong hasn’t beaten Sydney at the SCG since 2019, and I can’t see Smith being the one to drag them over the line. I’d prefer many others on the leaderboard at this price or longer.

Value

Caleb Serong @ $26

A great price for the Docker, who was our clear best-on-ground in Fremantle’s comeback win over Port Adelaide with 28 disposals and a goal, including 16 contested possessions and seven clearances.

Serong is a proven poller over the past two seasons. We have him one best-on-ground performance away from leader Nick Daicos. He finished equal 4th last year with 28 votes and equal 7th in 2023 with 24 votes.

He ranks second in the AFL for contested possessions, fits the Brownlow profile, and has polled well against Brisbane – earning 3 votes in each of their last two meetings and 8 votes across their last four clashes.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.

Best Bet

Noah Anderson @ $4.80

Last week, Rowell was our best bet at $21, with his odds crunched into $13 after Round 21. But following a monstrous performance, it’s Noah Anderson who gets the nod this week at $5.

Whether it’s Rowell or Anderson, the Suns have a game in hand, and with both players currently on the podium, this angle becomes more relevant each week.

Anderson is just one best-on-ground performance behind Daicos, who faces Hawthorn this week. It’s a side he has historically struggled against, so this round presents another big opportunity for one of the Suns midfielders to close the gap.

Lay

Jordan Dawson @ $6.00

If you’ve read this article before, you’ll know there’s a consistent theme — laying Jordan Dawson.

He was solid in Adelaide’s win over the Hawks but managed just 21 disposals. It wasn’t a dominant display.

Dawson does re-enter the top eight on the leaderboard, but at $6, he still looks well off the pace.

Value

Max Holmes @ $81

He’s flying. Another best-on-ground performance in Geelong’s demolition of Port Adelaide has pushed Max Holmes to outright sixth on our leaderboard.

Geelong now face Essendon in Round 22. Just eight weeks ago, Holmes was best on ground against the Bombers with 36 disposals and a goal. In Round 24, they play Richmond, a side he also dominated with 36 and a goal.

The polling history is a concern, which explains the price, but the Geelong speedster has a very favourable run home.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.

Best Bet

Matt Rowell @ $21

It might sound ridiculous, but if you’re having a wager after Round 20, I’d rather be on Matt Rowell at $21 than take the $1.75 for Nick Daicos.

The Suns have a game in hand and finish with Richmond, Port Adelaide, Carlton and Essendon – four very winnable games. If Rowell keeps up this form, he could easily pull 10 votes in that stretch.

Daicos is the rightful favourite, coming off a near-perfect game and sitting six votes clear on our tracker. But we saw this script in 2023, and with a month of footy left, $1.75 just doesn’t appeal. This is purely a value play.

Lay

Jordan Dawson @ $5.50

We’re laying Dawson again. I found 0.25 of a vote for him in the Showdown win over Port, but it’s near-certain that Thilthorpe and Soligo take the top two votes.

Even including that, Dawson doesn’t make our top ten. He’s drifted from $4.50 to $5.50, but it’s still wild that he’s rated ahead of players like Noah Anderson and Bailey Smith.

I would be absolutely stunned if Dawson finishes on the podium.

Value

Max Holmes @ $101

Geelong should win their final four games, and based on their voting pattern this season, expect Holmes, Cameron and Smith to share the spoils.

Holmes is a sneaky chance for a vote in the Cats’ big win over North, which lifts him to seventh on our leaderboard.

We have him polling 13 votes across Geelong’s last nine games. If he picks up another 7 or 8 in the run home, he’s a genuine podium smoky at a massive price.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.

Best Bet

Caleb Serong @ $17

Only one more game remains in Nick Daicos’ softer run, with Richmond up next. After that, Collingwood face Brisbane, Hawthorn and Adelaide. With that fixture ahead, we’re likely to see better than the current $2.20.

Meanwhile, Caleb Serong is still $17 after leading Fremantle to an upset win over the Pies with 37 disposals and a goal. What are we missing? He moves into second on our leaderboard and faces West Coast next – a team he has dominated in recent years. After that, Freo play Carlton and Port Adelaide.

It’s staggering he remains at this price, especially given the drop-offs from Dawson and Smith, who are still trading in single figures. Serong has proven he can poll. He finished equal-fourth last year with 28 votes and equal-seventh the year before with 24.

Lay

Jordan Dawson @ $4.50

Dawson has fallen outside our top 10, yet somehow remains the outright second favourite and is still priced in the $4 range.

We don’t have him polling from a 20-disposal outing in their win over the Suns, which leaves just four projected votes from his last seven games.

There is no way Dawson wins the Brownlow from here. Lay him with confidence.

Value

Matt Rowell @ $26

Rowell has jumped into fifth on our leaderboard and might be ready to explode.

He has polled strongly since the bye, with eight projected votes from his last five games. It’s a good time to revisit what we saw in 2024. Rowell was projected for 17 to 19 votes — maybe 20 — and ended up polling 25, finishing equal-eighth. That was in a season where the Suns won 11 games. They could finish with 15 or 16 in 2025.

Rowell is averaging a career-best 25.2 disposals and 8.3 clearances per game. He ranks seventh in contested possessions and second in tackles across the league. With games against Essendon, Richmond, Carlton and Port Adelaide still to come, plus a game in hand, he remains a serious contender at long odds.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.

Best Bet

Noah Anderson @ $6

Could Josh Daicos end up costing his brother a Brownlow? It’s unclear whether McRae pulls the trigger and throws Josh into the midfield off the back of that final quarter, but if he does, Nick may no longer be polling uncontested.

Noah Anderson was massive in Gold Coast’s win over Collingwood, taking the honours in what could be the Brownlow-defining game. With Touk Miller likely to miss a few weeks, one of Anderson’s biggest vote-sharing threats is out of the picture.

The Suns skipper should have more chances to poll late in the year. Midfielders post big numbers against the Crows, as Bontempelli showed on the weekend, and the Suns still have Richmond, Carlton, Essendon and Port Adelaide to come. He should be the clear second favourite.

Lay

Bailey Smith @ $6.50

Feel like he’s lost all momentum and won’t poll in the last month with losses in Round 15 and 18, a bye in Round 16 and missing in Round 17.

Geelong do have an incredible run home where they should win five of the last six games, but with how Smith has played in his last two games along with his poor polling history, I don’t think there’s any guarantee he’ll be the one polling the votes in those wins.

In fifth place on our leaderboard now with a bit of a buffer from him and the top-four, it will take an almighty effort for him to win from here.

Value

Zak Butters @ $41

The Power might not win many more games, but is Zak Butters really a $41 chance? It’s rare to see a genuine contender on our leaderboard priced this far out.

He’s just two votes off the leader and one of four players in the breakaway pack.

With Rozee and Horne-Francis out, Port’s path gets tougher, but if they win even three of their last six, it’ll likely be on the back of Butters. That’s enough to keep him right in the hunt.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.

Best Bet

Nick Daicos @ $2.50

Only injury stops him from here, based on current form.

Another massive outing from Daicos — he’s had 30+ disposals and a goal in four of his last five, and looks a lock for three votes in the win over Carlton.

Even better: he faces Gold Coast this week, a side he’s polled three votes against in each of their last three meetings. A big chance to put a gap on Noah Anderson in what could be a Brownlow-shaping game.

Lay

Jordan Dawson @ $4.00

Hard to believe Dawson is still on the second line of betting.

Don’t expect him to poll in the Crows’ win over Melbourne. He had a team-high 25 disposals but didn’t hit the scoreboard and only managed 8 contested possessions and 3 clearances.

He’s been a handy poller in the past but nothing extraordinary. Hard to see him stacking up against the likes of Daicos, Anderson or Smith from here.

Value

Zak Butters @ $81

Tossed up between Max Holmes ($67) and Zak Butters and landed on the Port Adelaide star.

Butters is still near the top three in the count despite a wild price of $81. He was solid against Brisbane but unlikely to poll.

The big opportunity comes in Round 18 when Port host West Coast. If Butters goes big and picks up three votes he could jump into outright second. If that happens, he won’t be $81 next week.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.

Best Bet

Nick Daicos @ $3.25

Nick Daicos now takes the lead on our Brownlow Leaderboard after Round 16, and being 1.75 votes ahead of Bailey Smith and still paying above $3, he remains our best bet.

Daicos faces Carlton next – a team in decline, and one he has teed off on last season polling five votes from their two games in 2024.

Expect more votes to come his way, while Bailey Smith will likely close with Richmond his Round 17 opponent.

Lay

Ed Richards @ $19

Polled well below expectation in 2024, and although he’s taken his game to another level I just can’t have him as sixth favourite.

We’ve got Richards in equal-tenth place on our leaderboard, but the Bulldogs have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to players capable of polling on Brownlow night, in particular Marcus Bontempelli.

With the number of goals coming from their midfield, think we’ll be seeing an even spread across the board for the Bulldogs.

Value

Isaac Heeney @ $151

Zak Butters was our value last week and he still is exactly that at $51 – into third on our leaderboard, but right behind him is Isaac Heeney.

Could the Swans make a late finals run led by this man? They should bank five of their last eight, they’re capable of beating the Giants as they did earlier in the season, plus the Cats at the SCG – so a chance to go 7 wins from their last 8 games.

So if they do manage to storm home, does Isaac Heeney storm home into Brownlow calculations?

Heeney is in peak Brownlow polling areas off the back of a breakout last year where he polled 28 votes. Very possible Heeney polls nine votes in Sydney’s last three games, and with the Swan moving into our top-eight on the leaderboard he’s within striking distance.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.

Best Bet

Nick Daicos @ $3.75

Caleb Serong was my best bet last week at $23, and although I’m tempted to double-down at $13 as he takes the lead after Round 15, I just can’t ignore Nick Daicos from here.

A big move by the Magpie with three votes against the Saints, and now Daicos will face the Eagles and Blues in the next fortnight where he could realistically poll 6 more votes.

Fremantle should make it six straight when they host the Saints in Round 16, but Serong did struggle with the Windhager tag when they met in Round 8 with his worst output of the season.

Lay

Jordan Dawson @ $4.00

Has been my lay more often than not this season, and I’m staggered to see Dawson’s price only fade 25 cents off the back of monster games from Daicos, Anderson and Serong.

The Crows captain remains in the top-eight on the leaderboard off the back of the bye, but he’s got plenty of work to do to chase the leading pack from this position.

Now playing more forward-time, Dawson averages just 20.4 disposals in Adelaide’s last five wins.

That’s not going to cut it.

Value

Zak Butters @ $67

Bad loss by the Power, but don’t be surprised if you see Butters feature in the minor votes off the back of an equal game-high 28 disposals and a goal.

Butters remains in our top-five of the leaderboard after Round 15, with the Power facing the hapless Carlton on their home turf in Round 16.

Unsure how many games the Power are capable of winning in the run home which is one of the reasons we see Butters at this price, but happy to play at $67 to find out.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.